Mi sensación particular es que esto tirará para arriba modestamente, después de la Declaración del G20 y sobre todo de lo que pase en la Cumbre de Bruselas del 28 y 29, pero tengo la impresión de que luego bajará mientras se concreta todo y Merkel se baja de la burra, si es que todo llega a buen puerto, que puede que sí, o puede que realmente no haya medios o voluntad política auténtica. Mi visión particular es salirme a la que se ganen unos pocos puntos, quizá en 3 semanas, y antes de que los mercados vean que esto va para largo.
Aquí os pongo el punto 11 de la Declaración del G20, que es lo relativo a Europa:
"Against the background of renewed market tensions, Euro Area members of the G20 will take all necessary measures to safeguard the integrity and stability of the area, improve the functioning of financial markets and break the feedback loop between sovereigns and banks. We welcome the significant actions taken since the last summit by the Euro Area to support growth, ensure financial stability and promote fiscal responsibility as a contribution to the G20 framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth. In this context, we welcome Spain’s plan to recapitalize its banking system and the Eurogroup’s announcement of support for Spain’s financial restructuring authority.
The adoption of the Fiscal Compact and its ongoing implementation, together with growth-enhancing policies and structural reform and financial stability measures, are important steps towards greater fiscal and economic integration that lead to sustainable borrowing costs. The imminent establishment of the European Stability Mechanism is a substantial strengthening of the European firewalls. We fully support the actions of the Euro Area in moving forward with the completion of the Economic and Monetary Union. Towards that end, we support the intention to consider concrete steps towards a
more integrated financial architecture, encompassing banking supervision, resolution and
recapitalization, and deposit insurance. Euro Area members will foster intra Euro Area adjustment through structural reforms to strengthen competitiveness in deficit countries and to promote demand and growth in surplus countries. The European Union members of the G20 are determined to move forward expeditiously on measures to support growth including through completing the European Single Market and making better use of European financial means, such as the European Investment Bank (EIB), pilot project bonds, and structural and cohesion funds, for more targeted investment,
employment, growth and competitiveness, while maintaining the firm commitment to implement fiscal consolidation to be assessed on a structural basis. We look forward to the Euro Area working in partnership with the next Greek government to ensure they remain on the path to reform and sustainability within the Euro Area."
Breve resumencillo:
*Europa mejorará el funcionamiento de los mercados financieros y romperá el círculo vicioso entre bancos y deuda soberana
*Que muy bien el plan de España para recapitalizar su banca
*Que es importante adoptar medidas que impulsen el crecimiento
*Que el inminente instrumento de estabilidad europeo reforzará los cortafuegos
*Que apoyan la intención europea de unión bancaria
*Que esperan que la zona euro trabaje con Grecia para que sigan en el euro, reformas y estabilidad.
Muy bien como declaración, lo esperable, pero como no deja de ser una declaración de intenciones, pues dudo que calme mucho a los mercados. De momento, si bien ha rebasado los 100, tampoco parece que el euro se dispare frente al yen.