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AIRIS

Active Member
Fito, muy divertido tu fichero adjunto. El libro promete...pero.... ¿me puedes explicar lo del toro y el oso? Creo que se nota mucho que no creo haber leído nunca nada en el Business Week.;)
 

Osky

Active Member
A mi el unico toro que me suena que tiene relacion con la economía (USA) es el de la estatua que está en Wall Street, como no tenga que ver con eso yo tampoco sé a que lexe se refiere.
 

jbf99

Member
Fito, muy divertido tu fichero adjunto. El libro promete...pero.... ¿me puedes explicar lo del toro y el oso? Creo que se nota mucho que no creo haber leído nunca nada en el Business Week.;)
Bullish quiere decir alcista (toro)
Bearish bajista (oso)
 
Es que para eso sirve el análisis técnico para poder decir ambas cosas y cubrirse siempre, el análisis técnico no falla "nunca".

Un señor tiene 2 cajones en uno pone los bolis rojos (alcistas) y en otro los azules ( bajistas ) tambien es increíble que necesite 2 cajones pero tiene su lógica, según por donde quiera tirar la linea los usa mas gordos o mas finos y según se va formando el gráfico y según lo que le apetezca decir ese día en defensa de sus intereses utiliza uno u otros (aquí entrarían los calienta valores por ejemplo ) , además daros cuentas que cuanto mas buscas mas lineas entran.... quien no se consuela es porque no quiere. :D:D:D

En fin era por darle algo de humor a esta situación. Por cierto tenemos a los especuladores dando caña el dolar. :cool:

El libor nos va dando respiro gotita a gotita...

SESION 02/02/2009 18:00

Tipo Medio
Libor 1 Mes 0,39388
Libor 3 Meses 0,66750
Libor 6 Meses 0,83250
Libor 12 Meses 0,97975


Saludos a todos.
SESION 03/02/09
Nombre Yen Japonés
Libor 1 Semana 0,248
Libor 1 Mes 0,388
Libor 2 Meses 0,621
Libor 3 Meses 0,664
Libor 6 Meses 0,820
Libor 9 Meses 0,910
Libor 1 Año 0,977

Poco a poco...si señor, lento pero hacia abajo.
Un saludo
 

AIRIS

Active Member
Bullish quiere decir alcista (toro)
Bearish bajista (oso)

Ah... y Rabish será lateral, ¿no? ¿o no dibujan conejitos?, manda huevvvv...
qué gracioso.
Voy a buscar ese libro Fito, promete.
 

Pedrito

Member
Ah... y Rabish será lateral, ¿no? ¿o no dibujan conejitos?, manda huevvvv...
qué gracioso.
Voy a buscar ese libro Fito, promete.
¿Has visto el logo de Intereconomía? Pues un toro bullish... aunque con lo tostón que son podrían ponerse un oso durmiendo a pata tendida :confused:

¿Habeis visto el dato de Existing Home Sales?.

Una vela encendida en la oscuridad total, al menos nos permite matener el 115 por hoy.

Perdón, a 116. Un rally de 100 puntos básicos en un par de horas. Que maravillosa visión de velas blancas para mi castigado corazón
 
Última edición por un moderador:

hactros

Member
Asaltando los 116.....a por ellos:D
El USD en los 130.....a ver si ayuda el USD/JPY:
 
Última edición:

alenkris

Member
Dios santo.... cuanto tiempo va a durar esto???
De momento habeis de saber que me cogen el cambio para la cuota con la apertura de mañana, así que una vez cogido... se recuperará un poco.... eso seguro.
Que.... os lo dije o no os lo dije??
soy la mejor analista del foro o no soy la mejor analista del foro??
(lo siento por Osky, que se ha comido la cuota a 114, al igual que yo :()
 

EPIMETEO

New Member
EL Toro y el Oso

Fito, muy divertido tu fichero adjunto. El libro promete...pero.... ¿me puedes explicar lo del toro y el oso? Creo que se nota mucho que no creo haber leído nunca nada en el Business Week.;)


Hola. lo del Toro y el Oso casi nunca se me quedaba y en una ocasión escuche una explicación en Intereconomia y desde entonces lo tengo clarisimo.
Todo viene en la forma en que ambos animales embisten a sus enemigos. El toro lo hace con los cuernos de abajo-arriba (alcista-bullish) y el oso lo hace con las zarpas de arriba-abajo (bajista-bearish)


creo que así queda mucho mas claro.

33M JPY entrada nov08 a 127,19. Suerte a todos!!
 

KHI

Member
Que.... os lo dije o no os lo dije??
soy la mejor analista del foro o no soy la mejor analista del foro??
(lo siento por Osky, que se ha comido la cuota a 114, al igual que yo :()
Ostras alenkris, pues es verdad. "Cambio mínimo del día a 114,50 a las 9:30 a.m en la apertura de los mercados en Spain" :eek:

vamos a tener que incluir el día y la hora a la que os pasan la cuota para señalar el comienzo del rally alcista debido al efecto "Alenkris-Osky" (parece el nombre de un importante teorema matemático descubierto para el Análisis Técnico :D )

A cambio, podemos hacer una colecta en yenes para compensaros estar siempre en el "candelabro" como decía la Mazagatos (con velas japonesas por supuesto), por lo menos para unas cervezas (una cerveza cuesta 500 yenes según informes recientes de primera mano)

Kampai!​
 

ffrhmd

Member
Roubini & Pesek & USA vs Japón

Is the U.S. a Japan 2? The Return of Japan’s “Free Fallin” Stag-Deflation and the Risks of a U.S.

Feb 3, 2009

William Pesek, the savvy Asia columnist for Bloomberg, reports - in his latest column (see below) - my views about the structural crisis faced by Japan that I outlined in a 1996 paper titled “Japan’s Economic Crisis”. Thirteen years later Japan is entering another severe slump that looks like even worse than that of other advanced economies: while in US, Europe and some other advanced economies and China the second derivative of growth and of other economic indicators is turning closer to becoming eventually positive rather than negative (i.e. growth is still negative but GDP may be falling at a decelerating – rather than accelerating - rate) in Japan is still highly negative (i.e. the fall is accelerating and looking like a free fall, a severe case of stag-deflation).

The sad case of Japan free fall is a cautionary tale of what happens when a high flying economy has a real estate and equity bubble that goes bust and avoids for too long doing the painful structural reforms and clean-up of the financial system that is necessary to avoid a long-term L-shaped near depression. Japan had over a decade of stagnation and deflation, then a mild sub-par growth recovery that lasted only three years and is now spinning into another severe stag-deflation. Keep alive zombie banks and zombie corporations whose balance sheets and debts are not restructured as in Japan (zombie banks and zombie insolvent households in the US today) and you end up in a L-shaped near depression.

Let me explain next in this note why the US and the global economy face the risk of an L-shaped near depression if appropriate policy actions are not undertaken…

First, note that Japan made many policy mistakes that the US should and could avoid: it cut policy rates two years after the bust of its asset bubble while the US eased monetary policy aggressively after August 2007; it went into QE (quantitative easing) reversed ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) too slowly; it waited two years after the bursting of its bubbles to do a fiscal stimulus (and reversed it too early with a consumption tax) while the US did one – albeit a failed one – last year and is doing another large one now; it created a convoy system of zombie banks and corporate that were restructured too late while the US may become more aggressive in cleaning up the financial system; it had structural rigidities – like lifetime employment – that slowed down the adjustment while the US has flexible labor markets (with workers moving fast to new sectors/regions where there are jobs once they lose one).

But in many dimensions the U.S. started its financial and economic crisis in a much worse shape than Japan. Indeed, Japan was in much better macro and financial shape than the US before and during its stagnation: high household and national savings and low leverage of the household sector, large current account deficit, net foreign asset position that allowed it to finance its large fiscal deficit during the stagnation via domestic savings. The US instead has had near zero household savings and massive leverage for years, large current account deficits and is the largest net foreign debtor in the world, thus relying on the kindness of strangers or, better, on the kindness of its strategic rivals (China, Russia) or unstable petro-states to finance its twin fiscal and current account deficits.

And the US may make some of the same mistakes as Japan and suffer of similar macro policy constraints that may limit the ability to resolve the financial crisis in a more rapid manner. First, monetary policy – however aggressive – is like pushing on a string when you have a glut of capacity and credit/insolvency rather than just illiquidity problems. Second, fiscal policy has its limits in a worlds where you are already the biggest net debtor and net borrower in the world and where you need to borrow this year $2 trillion net ($2.5 trillion gross) to finance your fiscal deficit while every other country (including your traditional lenders/creditors) are now running large fiscal deficits with the risk of a sharp back-up in long-term interest rates once the tsunami of new US Treasuries hits the market (see the back-up in Treas yields in the last 10 days and the scary signal it sends about coming dislocations in the US Treasuries market). Third, the US is taking an approach to bank recap and clean-up that looks more like Japan (convoy system and delayed true clean-up as the necessary pain to shareholders and unsecured creditors of banks is avoided/delayed) than the successful Swedish outright takeover/nationalization process. Fourth, the market friendly approach case-by-case approach to the necessary debt reduction of insolvent private non-financial agents (corporate for Japan, households for the US) will be too slow as working out one household at the time the debt overhang of 15 million insolvent households will take years when a systemic debt overhang requires an across the board debt reduction (as in Mexico and Argentina) that is not politically feasible – so far – in the US.

Thus, even if the US were to do everything right and fast enough (on the monetary, fiscal, bank cleanup and household debt reduction) we would still have a severe two year U-shaped recession until early 2010 with a weak recovery of growth (1% or so that feels like a recession even if you are technically out of it) in 2010-2011. But if the US does not do it right this severe U-shaped US and global recession may turn into a nasty multi-year L-shaped near depression like the one experienced by Japan. We don’t have to go back to the Great Depression (when output fell over 20% and unemployment peaked over 25%); even a stag-deflation and Near-Depression like the Japanese one would be most severe for the US and the global economy. And while six months ago I was putting the odds of this L-shaped near-depression at 10% or so such odds have now risen to one third. So time is of the essence and the clock is working against US and global policy makers. The time to stop dithering is well past; and the time to implement a program of forceful, coherent, credible, globally-coordinated monetary, fiscal, financial clean-up and debt-resolution is now. The US and global economy are truly risking a near-depression if the policy reaction is not bold, aggressive, sustainable and credible.

And here is Pesek’s column:

Roubini’s Gloom Gets Traction in Panicky Tokyo: William Pesek

Commentary by William Pesek

The champagne must be flowing at Toyota Motor Corp. headquarters.

It just ended General Motors Corp.’s 77-year reign as the world’s largest automaker. Toyota also is looking ahead and going full circle in terms of management: It just named the grandson of the company’s founder as president.

The celebrations and nostalgia will be short-lived, and not just because Toyota is forecasting its first operating loss in 71 years. It’s on the frontline of an economic plunge that might push Japan into another “Lost Decade.”

That’s a strong statement, and one that’s worth exploring in Japan and beyond.

Economic data coming out of Tokyo have been atrocious. Exports, for example, plummeted 35 percent in December from a year earlier. That was the sharpest decline since 1980 (there are no comparable data before then). Exports were the main driver of the recovery that now has died a very sudden death.

With nothing self-reinforcing about Japan’s expansion, Asia’s biggest economy seemed to go from 120 kilometers (75 miles) per hour to zero in all of a week. Now it’s going in reverse, and picking up speed.

Global demand for cars and electronics is drying up fast. Toyota, Sony Corp. and Honda Motor Co. are shedding thousands of workers and closing production lines as profits and sales dwindle. It’s just the beginning as the U.S. and Europe sink.

Japan Blindsided

The global crisis blindsided most Japanese executives and politicians. Much of the chatter in 2008 was about how Japan’s cash-rich banks would play a white-knight role for a Wall Street in turmoil. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc.’s $9 billion investment in Morgan Stanley was seen as the first of many such deals.

As 2009 unfolds, the folly of that view will come into sharper focus. Yes, Japan’s government has the resources and borrowing potential to forestall a meltdown. The roughly $15 trillion of household savings is a comforting counterpoint to press reports of rising Japanese poverty and homelessness.

Yet Japan will have the same problem as China this year. Both economies can hold their ground when others are booming. With the U.S and Europe in deepening recessions, all that’s left is domestic stimulus.

That goes for Asia, too. Singapore may contract a record 5 percent this year. In South Korea, industrial production fell by the most on record in November. Officials in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan and Thailand are struggling to boost slowing economic growth.
....


sigue
 

ffrhmd

Member
...

continua...

Lost Decade

No serious economist thinks Japan is going to crash. Yet the odds of another 1990s-like period of negligible growth and deflation are increasing as economies such as the U.S. risk a similar fate.

Minimal household savings, sliding home prices and dwindling retirement accounts leave Americans with one option: thrift. The specter of Americans consuming less is prompting a rapid reassessment of Japan’s prospects.

“We’d better get ready for a three-year recession,” says Hiroshi Yoshikawa, head of the government committee that charts economic cycles. The decline “will be very severe, not only in terms of duration but also depth.”

Richard Jerram, chief economist at Macquarie Securities Ltd. in Tokyo, headlined a Jan. 20 report: “Panic on Jobs.” Yesterday’s was called “Unprecedented Contraction,” arguing that the speed of declines in exports and production “is more than twice as fast as anything on record.”

Roubini in 1996

Such trends are engendering the kind of gloom envisioned by market seers such as Nouriel Roubini. The views of the chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC in New York are worth considering. That goes both for what he’s saying now -- that Japan is in for a severe recession -- and more than decade ago.

In November 1996, Roubini delivered a speech in Tokyo titled “Japan’s Economic Crisis.” What is striking when reading Roubini’s remarks then is how, with a few changes here and there, many of them are just as relevant in January 2009.

“The different social culture and history of Japan suggest that Japan will not and should not follow the brutal ‘Wild-West’ American model of restructuring and reform,” Roubini said. “However, there is need in Japan for major structural reforms and economic deregulation in order to foster entrepreneurship, risk-taking, innovation and long-run growth.”

Fast Action

Roubini added that “delaying these reforms will not help because short-run reduction of the pain might lead to more serious problems in the long-run.”

Prescient words. Because Japan did delay much-needed economic changes, it’s now in a very bad way. The Bank of Japan has already failed to boost growth by cutting interest rates to zero. Japan has already tried, and failed, to create a thriving domestic economy with massive public spending.

The BOJ and the government will pull out all the stops to keep a recession from becoming a depression. Wealthy Japan is far better positioned to stay out of the abyss than peers in Asia. Yet Japan won’t be making the changes needed to prepare for a rapidly aging population and or help it to thrive in a region in which its standard of living is too high to compete.

Unless officials in Tokyo act fast and furiously, Japan risks another lost decade. Or something even worse.
 

trapaga

Well-Known Member
por si habia dudas de liquidez :p

El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) y la Reserva Federal (Fed) ampliarán el acuerdo que mantienen para inundar el mercado de dólares, hasta el próximo 30 de octubre.

http://www.expansion.com/2009/02/03/inversion/1233676607.html

o como se puede manipular las divisas o como el japon se lo piensa

saludos

PD a por el 1,75 y por ende el 100 :p
 
Os adjunto noticia:

TOKIO, 3 feb (Reuters) - El yen caía en Asia después de que el Banco de Japón dijera que compraría acciones en poder de los bancos con el fin de potenciar las cotizaciones.

El BOJ informó que compraría $11.100 millones en acciones hasta abril de 2010 y que la medida sólo afectaría a los títulos con calificación de BBB- o por encima.

"Es un factor positivo para las acciones y negativo para el yen porque dará lugar a una disminución de la aversión al riesgo", expresó Tomoko Fujii, jefe de economía y estrategia de Bank of America en Tokio.

Koji Fukaya, estratega senior de divisas de Deutsche Securities, dijo que el BOJ probablemente compraría acciones que las instituciones financieras pretendían vender al mercado.

Opinó que el impacto general en el mercado podría ser neutral.

(Reporting by Masayuki.Kitano; Editing by Brent Kininmont: Traducido por Carlos Castellanos)

.... pues habra sido un resbalon, por que caer caer el yen, no lo veo
 

Krupier

Well-Known Member
Por cierto y ya obviando el rollo político.................el yen a 116,66..........aaaaaaaaamos parriba!!!!!
 

FIDOKAWA

Member
oído cocina!

Pues eso es lo que nos debe interesar.....
ok! me apunto...JODER LO HE VIST A 116,70!! quien me iba a decir a mi en Julio que iba a alegrarme de estos valores..la vida te da sorpresas..sorpresas te da la vida...jeje
 

darkpollo

Member
Para todos:
Esto es lo que no se ha leido mucha gente y que es obligatorio leer.

NORMAS DE OBLIGADO CUMPLIMIENTO:


1.1: Respeto y educación. Los foreros deben de mantener unas normas de conducta apropiadas con el resto de miembros, así como con personas físicas, entidades y/o sociedades. No será tolerada ninguna falta de respeto.

El respeto y la educación también se aplicarán a los nicks, avatares y firmas, estando además terminantemente prohibidos los que inciten a la violencia, racismo, sexismo o guarden relación con motivos políticos y/o religiosos, temáticas éstas que dejamos fuera de estos foros, así como cualquier otra sujeta a crear polémica o malestar en la comunidad.
 

darkpollo

Member
¿Por qué qué?

Si te parece nos vas dando una dirección de correo para que te mandemos lo que pensemos publicar y nos das tú el visto bueno sobre si tiene que ver con el yen o no.

El ataque que ha recibido Tetoko por expresar lo que libremente ha considerado ha sido exagerado. Me he releído su post varias veces y sólo el típico "militante" estereotipado puede considerarse aludido.

Estamos en un foro "económico", sección "hipotecas", subsección "HMD", y la crisis actual y su gestión política en el país en el que vivo hacen que me parezca más que apropiado hablar de su relación.

Habrá quiénes estemos más de acuerdo con su análisis y quiénes lo compartan menos o nada en absoluto, pero ni la descalificación ni la censura me parecen respuestas adecuadas.

Y como tal lo pienso, tal lo expreso.


Un saludo!
Lo vuelvo a repetir el porque.
Que veo que la gente no lo pilla.
NORMAS DE OBLIGADO CUMPLIMIENTO:


1.1: Respeto y educación. Los foreros deben de mantener unas normas de conducta apropiadas con el resto de miembros, así como con personas físicas, entidades y/o sociedades. No será tolerada ninguna falta de respeto.

El respeto y la educación también se aplicarán a los nicks, avatares y firmas, estando además terminantemente prohibidos los que inciten a la violencia, racismo, sexismo o guarden relación con motivos políticos y/o religiosos, temáticas éstas que dejamos fuera de estos foros, así como cualquier otra sujeta a crear polémica o malestar en la comunidad.
 
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