SerraAngel
New Member
Vamos a ver que tal le sale esta jugada a Inglaterra... En cualquier caso tener un €/$ a 1.15-1.2 y un €/Y a 100-110 creo que es equivalente a estar fuera y haber devaluado la divisa.Although the European Monetary Union has now survived for 11 years, the current strains within the euro zone show why it may not last for another decade without at least some of its members leaving. If that happens, the remaining euro zone could be stronger and more cohesive and the countries that leave would be able to avoid the problems that they face in the current crisis.
Consider Greece's present situation. In exchange for temporary liquidity assistance from the European Union and the International Monetary Fund, Greece has agreed to reduce its budget deficit by 10% of GDP, from 14% to 4%, over the next four years. The reductions in government spending and increases in tax collections needed to achieve that deficit reduction would have to exceed 10% of GDP because the process of deficit reduction would cause GDP to decline, implying less tax revenue and more transfer payments. The required decline in GDP would be a very painful loss of income and employment lasting for at least five years.
Leaving the euro zone would be an attractive alternative for Greece because it would allow Greece to devalue its currency. That would boost Greece's exports and reduce its imports. The resulting increase in production would offset the decline in GDP caused by the tax rise and the cuts in government spending. As a result, the necessary reduction in the fiscal deficit could be done with less pain and less of an increase in unemployment.
The currency devaluation would also shrink Greece's enormous trade deficit without the extra pain that would be caused by using years of high unemployment to achieve large reductions in the nominal level of Greek wages and prices. Experts say that eliminating the Greek trade deficit without a devaluation would require Greek private-sector wages to fall by about 25%.
Leaving the euro zone and allowing its currency to respond to market pressures would also have long-term benefits. When Greece joined the euro zone, the euro:drachma exchange rate was set so that Greece could have an initial trade balance. But over time Greece failed to have the productivity gains of other euro zone countries and the external demand for Greek goods and services did not grow as fast as that of other countries. As a result, Greece now has a current-account deficit of 7% of its GDP while Germany now has a current-account surplus of 5%. Even if Greece suffered the pain necessary to reduce wages to a level that eliminated its present trade imbalance, the problem would recur in the future unless Greece continued to have a lower rate of price and wage inflation than other countries in the euro zone. With a separate currency that can respond to market pressures, Greece would adjust to keep trade in balance without the ongoing declines in relative nominal wages.
The decision to leave the euro would of course be a political one with ramifications that go beyond the rational calculation of economic costs and benefits. Some Greek politicians and voters may value euro-zone membership so much that they are willing to accept the pain of adjustment without devaluation. But others may be so angry with the conditions imposed on Greece by the other euro-zone members that they would prefer to leave even if doing so did not bring economic relief.
The political decision to leave the euro zone could be more accidental than deliberate. A candidate for prime minister might campaign on the promise that, if elected, he would threaten the European Commission that Greece would leave the euro zone if its external debts were not dramatically reduced. If he were then elected and the Commission refused to reduce the debts, he would have to choose between admitting that his bluff had failed and carrying through on his threat to leave.
Even if Greece does not want to leave the euro zone, it might be forced to do so by an angry German electorate that does not want to provide permanent financial assistance to a country with persistent fiscal and current-account deficits. Although there is no mechanism in the Maastricht treaty for expelling a member of the euro zone, the recent threats by Germany to deny financial assistance and infrastructure funds to any country that is not financially responsible shows the kind of threats that could lead Greece to choose to leave "voluntarily".
Although I have focused these comments on Greece, similar conditions apply to some of the other peripheral euro-zone countries. It is possible, therefore, that one or more of them could leave or that the euro zone could split with a group of countries choosing to leave or being forced out.
It is also possible that Germany could decide that the euro zone is not viable in its current form. If forced to choose between accepting a much more centralised political system in which the European Commission had control over each country's budget, as the Commission recently proposed, and leaving the euro zone, the German people might decide to leave.
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A los japos no les tiene que estar haciendo mucha gracia el €/Y en estos niveles pues es a Europa donde más exportan. Otra cosa es que se dediquen a mantener a flote solo el $/Y básicamente por la cantidad de deuda que tienen en $ (lo mismo por lo que China no quiere devaluar su yuan frente al $).
En cualquier caso y con la que está cayendo, estoy sorprendido que el € siga aguantando tanto... Veremos como se encaja el nuevo plan de rescate del que se habla de Obama...
Saludos.