Recomendaciones para mañana de los economistas
En este
libro electrónico se detallan.
Resumidas las 17 son estas,
1.-Quick action for the real economy; sober reflection for financial regulation Alberto Alesina and Guido Tabellini
Regulatory reforms are surely needed, but this is not what G20 leaders can or should decide at this meeting; hasty new regulations could easily make things worse. The urgent need is for coordinated action to stimulate the global economy with fiscal and monetary measures. Allowing for varying national situations is essential.
2.-Coordinated responses versus identical responses Refet S. Gürkaynak
The G20 leaders face two related but distinct problems: mitigating the economic damage of the global recession, and reducing the chances of future financial crises. The recession requires coordinated macroeconomic stimulus, but coordinated need not mean identical. The leaders should also discuss financial regulation, but a unified financial regulatory framework for the whole world is unreachable and undesirable. Leaders should waste no time on this; national financial systems vary too widely and some are already over-regulated.
3.-Agenda for the next few months Michael Spence
Leaders should focus first on limiting the damage from this crisis in developed and developing nations. Coordinated interventions to prevent asset-price overshoot and provide fiscal stimulus are important. The longer term regulatory issues should await a careful analysis of the causes of the crisis.
4.-Making international finance safe for the world economy – not the other way around: What should the G20 communiqué say?
Dani Rodrik
G20 leaders should unite against unilateral actions that could tip the world into a vicious cycle that deepens the global recession. This should include: (i) coordinated fiscal expansions that include consumption-expanding measures by nations with large trade surpluses; (ii) commitment to abstain from protectionist measures; and (iii) commitment to expand funding of the IMF’s Short-Term Lending Facility as needed. Finally, leaders should establish a high-level working group to design new ‘traffic rules’ for international finance.
5.-Some suggestions for the G20 on November 15th Willem H. Buiter
G20 leaders should better coordinate their crisis ‘firefighting’ efforts including recapitalisations, lending guarantees, fiscal expansions, and toxic-asset valuations. They should also set in motion institutional reforms: (i) establishing a new G7/8 (US, EU, Japan, China, India, Brazil, Saudi Arabia and possibly Russia or South Africa) with the IMF as its secretariat; (ii) boosting IMF lending capacity, and; (iii) creating a uniform global regulatory framework for rating agencies and for large, highly-leveraged institutions with significant cross-border activities.
6.-Reforming global economic and financial governance Raghuram Rajan
G20 leaders should focus on global governance and should boost the IMF’s financial firepower. Global financial coordination requires a broader group than the G7 or G20. The EU should get only one chair in the “G20+” to allow broader representation. The Secretariat for this group should be a reformed IMF. The IMF’s lending capacity should be immediately increased by allowing the Fund to leverage its member quotas at a ratio of between 5 and 10 to 1.
7.-Not a New Bretton Woods but a New Bretton Woods process Barry Eichengreen
The November 15th meeting should explore the idea of a new “World Financial Organization” that, like the WTO, would blend national sovereignty with globally agreed rules on obligations for supervision and regulation. It should agree to immediately boost the IMF’s lending capacity, with nations like China contributing in exchange for a revamping of the old G7/8 group into a new G7 (US, EU, Japan, China, Saudi Arabia, South Africa and Brazil) that would provide a proper global steering committee.
8.-The new international financial architecture requires better governance Stijn Claessens
New rules and institutions are needed to reduce systemic risks, improve financial intermediation, and properly adjust the perimeter of regulation and supervision. This could mean an “International Bank Charter” for the world’s largest, most international banks with accompanying regulation and supervision, liquidity support, and remedial actions as well as post-insolvency recapitalisation funds in case things go wrong. The starting point, however, has to be a change in the governance of the international financial system.
9.-Europe’s two priorities for the G20 Daniel Gros
G20 members should boost IMF independence so it can act as a global ‘whistleblower’ to help call the next crisis. They should also start to bring the reach of banking supervisors more in line with the reach of banks. The failure of regulators to exchange confidential information led national agencies to miss the systemic risk that arose when banks across the global followed similar strategies.
10.-Returning to narrow banking Paul De Grauwe
Bubbles and crashes have been part of financial markets for centuries. Allowing banks – which inevitably borrow short and lend long – to get deeply involved in financial markets is a recipe for disaster. The solution is to restrict banks to traditional, narrow banking with traditional oversight and guarantees while requiring firms operating in financial markets to more closely match the average maturities of their assets and liabilities.
11.-G20 Summit: What they should achieve
Takatoshi Ito
Four issues demand G20 attention: (i) improved surveillance mechanisms to avoid future crises, (ii) reinforced liquidity support for small nations hit by shocks originating from other nations, (iii) better coordination of national financial supervisory and regulatory frameworks, and (iv) international agreement on bankruptcy procedures for large banks with extensive transnational involvement. Reform of the IMF is critical to all of these.
12.-Delivering change. Together. Wendy Dobson
Leaders should observe several key principles: (i) do no harm; (ii) avoid finger pointing; (iii) moderate expectations of global action; (iv) be unanimous in selecting a few goals and then deliver. The priorities should be to agree a coherent regulatory framework (new rules, not a new institution), hasten IMF restructuring, stimulate the real economy and permanently replace the old G7 with the G20.
13.-East Asia’s Self-managed Reserve Pooling Arrangement and the global financial architecture
Yung Chul Park
The G20 leaders should recognise the stabilising role that Europe’s regional financing arrangements play in the global structure and encourage the completion of a corresponding arrangement in East Asia. G20 nations should collaborate to make the SRPA a credible regional lender. This requires enlarging the SRPA’s reserve pool, ensuring that attached policy conditions are no more stringent than the IMF’s SLF, and making the disbursement process straightforward and expeditious.
14.-The New Bretton Woods agreement Guillermo Calvo
The crisis is spreading to the ‘South’. To offset ‘sudden stop’ disruptions, multilateral lending capacity should rise fivefold. Credit lines, like those extended by the Fed to struggling nations, need to be paired with regulations to discourage capital flight, and capital controls more generally should be viewed as useful tools for particular circumstances. Finally, in the longer run, serious attention should be paid to the creation of new or extended common currency areas.
15.-A New Bretton Woods system should curb boom and bust Vijay Joshi, David Vines
Today’s crisis has roots in a risky international monetary system as well as a risky financial system. Current international monetary arrangements encourage boom and bust cycles. G20 leaders should aim to build a system that induces nations to manage their macroeconomies in ways that produce neither financial bubbles nor large external imbalances and inappropriate exchange rates.
16.-Targeted improvements in crisis resolution, not a New Bretton Woods Erik Berglöf, Jeromin Zettelmeyer
The current crisis reveals two major flaws in the world’s crisis-resolution mechanisms: (i) funds available to launch credible rescue operations are insufficient, and (ii) national crisis responses have negative spillovers. One solution is to emulate the EU’s enhanced cooperation solution at the global level, with the IMF ensuring that the rules are respected.
17.-Save Doha to save the G20 Summit Ernesto Zedillo
A meaningful agreement that starts to reduce the world’s global economic governance deficit is simply not possible at the G20 meeting. But the G20 Summit need not be a disappointment. Plan B should be to save the Summit by saving the Doha Round.