Foros de Economía, hipotecas y bolsa > > > Hilo de Yellen, Draghi y la política de los bancos centrales
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Antiguo 29-ene-2014, 09:51
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Curiosa la posición de Yellen en comparación, cuando ya sabemos que en términos absolutos está más cerca del eje.
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Antiguo 01-feb-2014, 22:04
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Janet Yellen ya está al frente de la Reserva Federal de EE.UU.

Janet Yellen asumió hoy el cargo de presidenta de la Reserva Federal (Fed) con el reto de coordinar una salida suave del estímulo monetario en EE.UU. lanzado por su predecesor, Ben Bernanke, de quien era hasta ahora vicepresidenta.

Después de un agitado proceso de nominación, en el que era considerada la segunda opción tras el exsecretario del Tesoro Larry Summers, Yellen recibió el respaldo de los senadores demócratas más progresistas que la consideran más próxima y dudaban de las conexiones de Summers en Wall Street.

De este modo, Yellen se convierte en la primera mujer al frente del banco central estadounidense en un momento en el que la economía doméstica parece consolidar el repunte, y la tasa de desempleo, aunque muy paulatinamente, comienza a descender.

Los últimos indicadores mostraron un crecimiento del último trimestre de 2013 del 3,2 % del Producto Interior Bruto (PIB) y la tasa de desempleo cerró diciembre en un 6,7 %, la cifra más baja en cinco años.

Antes estas circunstancias, la Reserva Federal ya ha iniciado la progresiva retirada del multimillonario programa de compra de bonos, cuyo volumen a reducido de 85.000 millones de dólares a 65.000 millones en la reunión de esta semana, la última con Bernanke al frente.

"Creo que es un juicio justo decir que ella es quizá algo más paloma que Bernanke, que está más preocupada por el desempleo, y más dispuesta a tomar riesgos sobre la inflación", aseguró recientemente Ken Rogoff, economista de Harvard, al referirse al bajo nivel de inflación que registró EE.UU. en 2013 de 1,2 %, por debajo de la meta del 2 %.

Las "palomas", en la jerga de la Fed, se refieren a los economistas que están especialmente enfocados en el desempleo, frente a los "halcones", más concentrados en controlar la inflación.

Esas tensiones entre "palomas" y "halcones" son características de las reuniones del Comité Federal de Mercado Abierto de la Fed, que es el que decide la política monetaria del país.

Especialmente, dado que la Reserva Federal es uno de los pocos bancos centrales que cuenta con un doble mandato de fomento del pleno empleo y proteger la estabilidad de precios, por lo que se espera que Yellen no acelere el ritmo gradual de salida del estímulo marcado por Bernanke.

Aunque Yellen, de 67 años, será formalmente investida presidenta de la Fed en una ceremonia privada el lunes, desde este sábado se encuentra al frente del organismo, considerado el cargo más poderoso de EE.UU. después de la Casa Blanca.

Su primera comparecencia pública será el próximo 11 de febrero ante el Comité de Asuntos Financieros de la Cámara de Representantes ante el que presentará el informe semianual sobre la situación económica de EE.UU.

En esta ocasión, Yellen toma el volante del banco central estadounidense después de una semana de caídas en Wall Street y volatilidad en los mercados financieros de los países emergentes, que han visto cómo los inversores se retiraban a anticipando que la Fed continúe en su plan de retirada del dinero fácil.

No obstante, los analistas consideran que estas turbulencias en los emergentes no marcarán los ejes de la política monetaria en EE.UU.

"¿Considerarán el impacto de sus decisiones en los mercados emergentes? Sí, pero será de manera secundaria. Están gestionado la Fed en primer y principal lugar la economía de EE.UU", señaló a Efe Dean Baker, economista y cofundador del Center for Economic and Policy Research de Washington, de tendencia progresista.

La próxima reunión de la Fed sobre política monetaria tendrá lugar el 18 y 19 de marzo, y tras ella Yellen ofrecerá por primera vez una conferencia de prensa, continuando la tradición instaurada por Bernanke con el objetivo de aumentar la transparencia.

Entonces, se comenzará a entrever cuáles serán las líneas maestras de la nueva Fed, la primera con una mujer al frente y la primera sin Bernanke, el gran arquitecto del plan de estímulo monetario. Alfonso Fernández / Washington, 1 feb (EFE)


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Antiguo 01-feb-2014, 23:46
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La nueva presidenta de la Fed comparecerá ante el Congreso en febrero

La nueva presidenta de la Reserva Federal, Janet Yellen, comparecerá ante el Congreso de Estados Unidos el 11 y el 13 de febrero en la que probablemente será su primera intervención pública sobre política monetaria y la economía tras asumir las riendas del banco central del país.

Yellen, que el sábado releva a Ben Bernanke para convertirse en la primera mujer que dirige la Fed, romperá así un silencio de casi tres meses con dos días de declaraciones ante los congresistas sobre el informe bianual de política monetaria de la institución.

Su primera intervención será el 11 de febrero ante el Comité de Servicios Financieros de la Cámara de Representantes, mientras que dos días después lo hará ante el Comité Bancario del Senado.

Yellen, actual vicepresidenta de la Fed, habló por públicamente por última vez en la audiencia de confirmación en el Senado el 14 de noviembre, antes de que la Fed diera el primer paso para reducir su enorme programa de compra de bonos.

Desde entonces ha tenido muy poca presencia pública, aparte de una entrevista publicada este mes en Time Magazine en la que sugirió que espera que la economía estadounidense crezca al menos un 3 por ciento del Producto Interior Bruto.

Esta fuerte defensora de las políticas de alivio de la Fed tendrá la tarea de continuar reduciendo el enorme programa de compra de bonos, y posteriormente, subir los tipos de interés y disminuir el hinchado balance financiero de la Fed.

El republicano Jeb Hensarling, presidente del comité de la Cámara de Representantes, ha celebrado varias sesiones sobre el programa de compra de bonos del banco central, que ha llevado su balance a inflarse hasta los alrededor de 4 billones.

(Información de Ann Saphir, Jonathan Spicer y Margaret Chadbourn; Traducido por Teresa Larraz en la Redacción de Madrid) (Reuters)


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Antiguo 02-feb-2014, 00:12
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mercados durante el mandato de Bernanke... subiditas de vértigo:

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  #25  
Antiguo 02-feb-2014, 06:57
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This unprecedented global monetary experiment has only just begun, and every central bank is trying to get in on the act. It is a monetary arms race, and no one wants to be left behind. The Bank of England has devalued the pound to improve exports by allowing creeping inflation and keeping interest rates at zero. The Federal Reserve has tried to weaken the dollar in order to boost manufacturing and exports. The Bank of Japan, not to be outdone, is now trying to radically depreciate the yen. By weakening their currencies, these central banks hope to boost their countries' exports and get a leg up on their competitors. In the race to debase currencies, no one wins. But lots of people lose.

Emerging-market countries like Brazil, Russia, Malaysia, and Indonesia will not sit idly by while the developed central banks of the world weaken their currencies. They too are fighting to keep their currencies from appreciating. They are imposing taxes on investments and savings in their currencies. All countries are inherently protectionist if pushed too far. The battles have only begun in what promises to be an enormous, ugly currency war. If the currency wars of the 1930s and 1970s are any guide, we will see knife fights ahead. Governments will fight dirty, they will impose tariffs and restrictions and capital controls. It is already happening, and we will see a lot more of it….

We are already seeing the unintended consequences of this Great Monetary Experiment. Many emerging-market stock markets have skyrocketed. Only to fall back to earth at the mere hint of any end to Code Red policies.

Emerging-market countries have to fend for themselves. Bernanke, Kuroda, and other developed-country central bankers accept no responsibility. If other countries don't like a weaker dollar or yen, too bad. Bernanke places the blame, not on the United States for weakening the dollar, but on emerging countries for not revaluing their currencies or imposing capital controls. As U.S. Treasury Secretary John Connally said to foreign finance ministers in 1971, "The dollar is our currency, but it's your problem." Indeed.

Let's stop there for a moment, as this is an extremely important point. There have been numerous speeches by developed-world central bankers explicitly explaining that they are responsible for their own markets and that the central bankers of developing economies have to adjust on their own. Just as there have been many emerging-market central bankers complaining about quantitative easing in the developed world creating problems in their markets. In a few pages, we are going to look at a very important interview on Bloomberg with Raghuram Rajan, the brilliant head of the Reserve Bank of India, but now, back to Code Red:

Whenever the Fed hikes rates, bad things happen somewhere. It's that simple. In 1994 the quick rise in rates killed a lot of leveraged investors in the bond market. Orange County had interest-rate derivatives that blew up in its face. It was the largest municipal bankruptcy in history. Emerging-market stocks and bonds were hammered, and Mexico was even forced to devalue its currency in a major financial market crisis. If (when) the Fed hikes rates today, we'll see lots of bankruptcies like Orange County's and blow-ups like the Mexican Tequila Crisis. The very low rates globally in a Code Red world mean that now there are probably hundreds or thousands of investors like Orange County. You can bet on that. And that is why the market gets so nervous about suggestions that the Fed might start tapering its quantitative easing. If QE is finally ended, can rising rates be far behind? [Or at least that's the thinking!]

Recently, much of QE's effects have been felt in emerging-market countries. This is a response not just from the U.S. Fed but from the BOJ, ECB, and BoE. Unlike the sick, indebted developed world, many emerging-market countries are growing and doing well. [Let me remind you that we wrote this in August 2013!] We have not seen a lot of borrowing in the developed markets. Instead, growth of credit and lending to private borrowers is happening in emerging markets. Emerging markets have been a popular target of excess capital for a number of reasons: their overall ability to take on debt remains strong, and their balance sheets are still relatively healthy; and more importantly, investment yields have been high relative to sovereign competitors. This two-speed world presents enormous problems. Code Red-type policies in the developed world are leading savers and investors to flee very low rates of return at home in favor of putting money into Turkey, Brazil, Indonesia or anywhere that offers higher rates of return.

Code Red-type monetary policies are designed to produce investment and growth, and they are! Just not in the countries that central banks intended to help. This is a major headache for governments in these countries. For them it is like having loads of visitors drop by all of a sudden. It is flattering that they like your house; but after a while, you'd rather they didn't show up unexpectedly. Hot money flows are like drunken guests. They create a very big party, they leave unexpectedly, and they leave a god-awful mess behind. Large hot money flows have been behind most major emerging-market booms and busts.

Whenever major, developed-world central banks keep rates at very low levels and weaken their currencies, they cause bubbles. Let's look at two recent bubbles and crashes that Code Red policies helped cause.

After the Japanese bubble burst in 1989, the bank of Japan cut interest rates close to zero. By 1995 the dollar/yen exchange rate weakened, and the yen lost almost half of its value. The Japanese took money out of Japan and put it into Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand. Investors in other countries borrowed money either directly in yen or through synthetic instruments. It was called the yen carry trade, and it was designed to take advantage of easy Japanese money to invest elsewhere. Everyone assumed that the yen would continue to go down, making the terms of repayment easier.

Asia attracted nearly half of the total capital inflow to emerging markets, and the stock markets of South Korea, Malaysia, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia were soaring. The party didn't last forever. When the Thai currency came under pressure in June 1997, almost all Asian countries faced stock market crashes, capital flight, currency depreciations, and banking busts. The entire Asian episode perfectly fit the five stages of a bubble, but it was certainly much greater than it otherwise would have been, given the policies of the Bank of Japan….

The idea that ultra-low interest rates cause booms and busts is not new. Economists of the Austrian school, led by von Mises and Hayek, warned that credit-fueled expansions lead to the misallocation of real resources that end in crisis. In the Austrian theory of the business cycle, the central cause of a credit boom is the fall of the market rate of interest below the natural rate of interest. Investments that would not be profitable at higher rates become possible. The bigger the deviation of interest rates from the natural rate, the bigger the potential credit boom and the bigger the bust.

Like all bubbles, rapid price increases can rapidly reverse when interest rates return to normal levels. The greatest danger will then be to leveraged investors who bought farmland, corporate bonds, some emerging markets, and other bubbles with borrowed money.

Muy interesante todo el artículo Central Banker Throwdown | Millennium Wave Advisors | February 1, 2014
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Antiguo 02-feb-2014, 21:17
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Los tres gráficos que ha estado mirando Yellen el fin de semana (según WSJ):

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Antiguo 04-feb-2014, 10:18
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Why emerging markets are unlikely to sway the Fed | Money Supply
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Antiguo 05-feb-2014, 09:58
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Cuál será la estrategia de Yellen: Will Janet Yellen Use A Put Like Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke - MoneyBeat - WSJ

"Market watchers argue that the Fed’s willingness to shore up sentiment post-LTCM encouraged the tech and telecom bubble to inflate as far as it did in the late 1990s. And once again, when that went pop, the Fed responded with exceptionally aggressive rate cuts and then kept them “lower for longer” until shares once again boomed. That bubble spilled over to the housing market which, when it burst, caused the financial crisis of 2008.

And once again the Fed’s response was massive rate cuts, giving equities a huge boost. Leaving us with asset prices that look, on historic metrics, extremely stretched.

But it’s not quite self-evident that the Fed runs policy primarily for the benefit of shareholders. Rather, equities are both a useful gauge of economic prospects and, more recently, an important policy tool.

[...] Some members of the Federal Reserve’s policy making committee, led by Jeremy Stein, are worried that the central bank has once again inflated asset prices above where they can be justified by economic fundamentals–in this case, high yield corporate bond prices. At the same time, the Fed’s efforts to boost share prices have caused considerable distortions in the economy. Half of Americans might have equity exposure, but most stock ownership is concentrated in the top few percent. These people have had a good recovery. Most other Americans haven’t.

If the Fed is concerned about distributional effects of its policy, it may well alter its response to future market slumps. In other words, it could look at something other than wealth effects in order to get around collapsing credit channels. Like Mr Bernanke’s mooted helicopter money."
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Antiguo 06-feb-2014, 07:07
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Antiguo 07-feb-2014, 09:58
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Videoreportaje pequeño de WSJ sobre la "jubilación" de Bernanke y Yellen:

Video - Ben Bernanke, Janet Yellen, AT&T, and Super Bowl 2014. - WSJ.com
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