Cita:
Iniciado por ffrhmd  Apocalypse ¿NOW?  Dollar to Hit 50 Yen, Cease as Reserve, Sumitomo Says
Oct. 15.-2009 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar may drop to 50 yen next year and eventually lose its role as the global reserve currency, Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.’s chief strategist said, citing trading patterns and a likely double dip in the U.S. economy.
“The U.S. economy will deteriorate into 2011 as the effects of excess consumption and the financial bubble linger,” said Daisuke Uno at Sumitomo Mitsui, a unit of Japan’s third- biggest bank. “The dollar’s fall won’t stop until there’s a change to the global currency system.”
The dollar last week dropped to the lowest in almost a year against the yen as record U.S. government borrowings and interest rates near zero sapped demand for the U.S. currency. The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners, has fallen 15 percent from its peak this year to as low as 75.211 today, the lowest since August 2008.
The gauge is about five points away from its record low in March 2008, and the dollar is 2.5 percent away from a 14-year low against the yen.
“We can no longer stop the big wave of dollar weakness,” said Uno, who correctly predicted the dollar would fall under 100 yen and the Dow Jones Industrial Average would sink below 7,000 after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. last year. If the U.S. currency breaks through record levels, “there will be no downside limit, and even coordinated intervention won’t work,” he said. |
Demasiado antiguo Fran. El articulo es del 15 de octubre de 2009. Visto de lo visto, los análisis, muchos análisis tienen una validez muy corta.
Cuatro meses despues, quizás ni el mismo Sumitomo piense lo mismo.
Con todas las reservas, no me creo que el dolar/yen baje a 50, ni que deje de ser moneda de referencia tan facilmente...
Siempre ocurre que los EEUU van por delante. Cuando alli empiezen a salir del la crisis, subirán antes los tipos y el dolar subirá. Aunque luego ocurra lo mismo en Europa y suba el euro (y baje el dolar).
De hecho eso es lo que está tímidamente ocurriendo en las últimas semanas más o menos, no? que aparecen buenos datos, más o menos, y el dolar sube.
Si, si, aunque no sean del todo ciertos, auanque esten maquillados, etc. etc.
Pero si aún siendo así el dolar sube, es lógico pensar que cuando sean ciertos de verdad aún suba más o al menos siga subiendo..
Aunque luego, cuando esa "ola" de buenos resultados lleguen a Europa, suba el euro (y baje el dolar)