The black money is one that is not controlled by the authorities and may come either from legal activities (the lower volume, usually occurs when writing a retail value of the house that really is negotiated or when not declared an income for rent etc.y that is the easiest is detected) or illegal activities, the more damage it does, both the Treasury, because the volume is huge defraudatorio as by the social implications of this illegal activity.
Outside of those two groups have prostitution in most cases is simply a labor-droit (non-regulated), but it moves a huge amount of money that escapes the treasury (18,000 million € per year) and which is known for and all accepted. I wonder, why? If it is known that some people have an income for work they do, why not pay? And we entered the hypocrisy of the obvious and the laws recaudatorias so obvious to social security, contracts and even the very existence of something that seems to many like the inconvenience that some people rent out their bodies to others for a limited time .
But the most serious cases are those that encompass the black money from the trafficking in women, weapons, drugs, business-screen that never pay taxes, terrorism and so on. All these crimes and generate some more money, mostly, we know where he is. And yet we continue to prefer to pursue the camel neighborhood or the owner of the Puti-club before tackling the root of the problem. I speak of course of tax havens.
These are areas (sometimes country, sometimes not) to protect the identity of companies that have and / or bank accounts there. It is clear that the companies that have and / or bank accounts in a tax seeks to conceal something the treasury of his country. We all know and the authorities also know it. And we should not go too far because there are even within the European Union but outside its jurisdiction as is the case of 1 Gibraltar as a British territory (in this page you can view the list of tax havens).
Why are allowed to have sites where they can escape the capital that would do much good in their respective countries is something we do not know but it is terribly unjust punishment to those who suffer because of our lawful activity and to charge for payroll, we ultravigilados by the Treasury. However, apart from the actual crime prosecutor, the most serious and most sad and, of course, the most hypocritical, is that they permit, and that if such havens exist and could not have control of large flows of money move in the world, it would be much easier to break the networks of illegal activity. Drug trafficking, as we understand it at present, would disappear, the money diverted to terrorist groups were quickly discover, that is, win in the economic, social, in politics ... not only increase the income of tax, disappear entire networks of subversive activities.
Thus, there is no excuse. Why wait?
PD - In this official liaison USA month to month we can see the source of the money flows abroad to invest in assets that country. It is very interesting in itself but what is most striking is so high because they receive the "Caribbean bankings" (obviously tax havens where many Americans have their capital to invest in assets without paying taxes for the Treasury of his country)
Droblo written by the November 26, 2008 with 336 reviews
Read more articles on Euribor.
Personal comment.
Not many days ago, with the Ibex in 9500, someone at the forum said it would be good if you buy Ibex fell to 9000 and I replied that if he lost the 9000 which would have to do is sell and if they rose from 10 thousand to buy. I know it's difficult, we all have in their heads the idea of buying the cheaper price but it's just that we will know whether it is cheaper to bull past. Appeared to 9 santander cheap, and a plum 8, and 7 gift ... and this week we have seen below 5. Buying in bearish trend is very dangerous and to go for a rebound, we must let the action go without being within us and only if it breaks resistance, then pointed to that movement. Buy and sell when it goes up when low and not vice versa. I know it is very difficult but because this week we talked about positive things to learn from all this negativity, if we learn that in this year unlucky for equities, we draw that lesson for life. And it is applicable to all investments.
But I keep reading newspaper articles talking about values "safe" (Saturday at 5 Days for example recommended 5-specific values that have fallen hard this week, calling it "great values to the test of storms"), the other day Tele 5 "My portfolio investment" I heard something like that when there are bassists who use them to buy cheap values (sic) in the long term to leave to our children so they can sell them with much profit would think ... that maybe many of those who bought shares of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae ... or those who bought at 11 euros and SAN doubled to 9 to leave the average at 10. No one who buys it does not believe that the price is cheaper, more missing. There seems to be some media interest in which people do exactly what you should not do it without investing a maximum of losses. If that had there been no one-stop or individuals or funds or banks, which would be lost this year are losing. And there is no point talking about the dividend yield when we talk about losses of 50%, recently I read an article in February recommending buy for that reason ... then you sacrificed your cares little cash dividend. I understand that political correctness is to tell the users of business-to-be shareholders tend not to carry their losses ... but political correctness does not serve as a tool of investment. Let us not forget that the company (Berkshire Hathaway) of the most prestigious world-investor Warren Buffet-accumulated in the years leading to a loss of over 40% and he still defends his philosophy when he sees an opportunity to buy and hold even decades, but how many we have so much capital to not worry about our investments during years of viewing them falling at this rate?
On the other hand, I still insist that everything points-in-a real economy that the worst is yet to come. This is evidenced by this graph of the profits of companies that comprise the SP500: they have fallen nearly 50% in the past 14 months but is still above the boom times of the past, even adjusting for inflation. This gives reason to believe that this crisis is so deep because we have been the biggest bubble in history
(continue reading ...)
Droblo written by the November 21, 2008 with 322 reviews
Read more articles on Euribor.
Sometimes in trying to understand all stock movements forget a maximum fundamental: the bag move people with mental outlines some very similar to ours. Even the automatic programs that generate so much volume are based on basic psychological patterns. An example: A year ago, when someone earning about 5% by buying shares in Santander to € 14 had no hurry to sell, saying that "so what am I gonna do with the money?", Was an upward trend calm now if it earns a 5% by buying a few shares of Santander 6 € to be in a hurry to sell, appear to burn. This happens because volatility creates fear and lack of confidence, it does not matter the price, and the action is, in short, is pure psychology.
And is that almost all the great masters of the science of money were unable to become millionaires. I do not mean to get rich selling textbooks, but speculating. To my knowledge, no more than three business days speculators in the economic history:
Ie, knowledge economy does not turn anyone into an expert in making money.
However, with psychological patterns if you can make money. An example:
Some years ago the brothers Hirsch, one of the best firms on a global search for seasonal patterns, published a few details: that the days of the week are not all equal to the hours of trading. The Dow Jones from 1990 to 2006, if you look through days of the week would have given the following records:
- 6460 points Monday.
- +1615 Tuesday.
- +204 Wednesday.
- -226 Points Thursday.
- -523 Points Friday.
I am not a psychologist but these data are truly amazing and I can think of two interpretations: the beginning of the week makes us more willing to invest and to action that is approaching the end of the week we wanted and we spend more on Rest and also to open markets and give us a quiet activity that does not give us the weekend. I think that even if markets do not close this schedule will never disappear.
So chalk up the meantime, trading for short it is best to buy and sell Friday at the close on Monday. However, if during the weekend unleashes a world war ... care.
You see? I also have this psychological pattern in mind.
(continue reading ...)
Droblo written by the November 19, 2008 with 277 comments
Read more articles on Euribor.
With a little delay I leave with you the comment of the week, this time from the hand deI hyperactive ICG
November 14, 2008, at 9:32.
Well, well ... it is Friday!
We are pleased to reach safe and sound ... one more week.
I say that if these ladronzuelos and high areas do not realize what's really happening ... then I will explain it! Mss. and Messrs. of being up there leading the herd (in which I too am) ... pay attention to what I'm going to say:
The central and basic cause for the slowdown is occurring (wink to Solbes and ZP), crisis, recession, estanflacción, depression ... or as we like to call it, is a simple and easy reason is that ... and ... have gone from Thread! Have skipped the last round of the nut ... at the time of squeezed and enslaved. This is just the reason that the cow no longer gives more milk. We have no milk in the teats ... and we do not have good grass-fed ... and now we are skeletal cows.
It's that simple. Consider:
A) If I collect like my father ... and do not growth. Yes!, Ladies and gentlemen, charging the same thing that my dear father and have spent 20 years. I repeat: the same salary after 20 years ...! Taking into account that I am a thousand times better than him (my father was a pastor and then operator of the assembly line ... does not have an elementary school) ... and I, with EGB, ESO, and Bachelor degree ... and I the same salary ... (how sad, by God!)
B) And if the price of everything has been multiplied by 2, 3, 5 or 10 ... (food, entertainment, restaurants, gasoline, flats, rentals ... and what has not grown ... the CPI has risen at least, that if clothes, cars, ...)
Well ... ... NOT BLOCK THE ACCOUNTS. I left patatero zero in their pockets! Yes, yes ... listen: zero Zapatero! Not one euro. And you wonder: What I have to revive consumption? Well, wait ... because he sat me how to say ... I ask another credit?
Economy and so many masters, many advisers and analistos ... .. what!? Please .... respondanme ... economic elites and rulers of the Spanish comedy farce! for what?
Let's see the rest: whether to "A" less "B" ... what gives? Well, negative numbers, numbers do not mean ... RED? Well I say this in your language: numbers with NEGATIVE GROWTH ... (or numbers slowed).
So I see it:
YEAR 2008: I income 1,200 euros a month (ie "A") ... and it turns out that the concepts of monthly "B" give a whopping 700 euros rent, $ 100 petrol, 100 euros for food, such and such ... ... gives me Yields: -500 euros. I have no NOTHING in their pockets to spend ... on the contrary, the "life" compels me to throw credit card to survive those $ 500 monthly debt.
YEAR 1990: my father entered 200 billion pesetas ( "A") ... and it turns out that this has kept three children, pay floor, car, food ... such and such ... result: still saved money !!!!! Le envelopes!! (eye! And my father has had steady job and fixed his entire working life ... I, however, garbage contracts, agencies and other guarradas ...)
Now they see it more clearly? Eooo ... ... eooo! Lords ruling, employers, entrepreneurs ... ..!!!! eooooo .... where are they? Come accounts? And you know what I see around: the congress and the senate ... .. EMPTY. Our representatives .... those who have to sail through our welfare .... as are pluriempleados and with the 5 billion euros monthly deputy can not come to the end of the month ... because deputies do not work and dedicated to the self-employed or employed person who also have. (Please, a little shame and respect for citizens ... to attend parliament. Claim compulsory attendance of all deputies and senators to all sessions of both houses of parliament).
And so, all I can say that I am as Spanish is what I feel: SHAME! Outrage! IMPOTENCE!
The comment has been slightly censored, you have the original here.
Greetings and who are very good weekend ... I do what I'm feeling, I assure you everyone.
Written by Carlos Lopez on November 16, 2008 with 42 comments
Read more articles on Euribor.
Personal comment.
On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.
Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (Continue reading ...)
Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
Read more articles on Euribor.
Since he is no longer the "gold standard" and a ticket does not represent anything physical but simply faith in its issuer has formalized the old adage that says that the basis of the economy is confidence. As long as there is confidence the economy may go well although there are points "dark". Why? Because if consumers and businesses and banks believe in a good future, spend, invest and lend and this will generate well-paid jobs so the virtuous circle will continue to operate and will continue to spend, invest and banks to finance projects future.
For that confidence is not lost speeches by political and economic decision usually mostly reassuring because if you lose falling economic growth and are entering a vicious circle: consumers do not spend, businesses earn less and reduce their investment and the banks get the credit because bad debt increases. And the order may be reversed as is happening with the current crisis: the banks reduce credit before the outbreak of the housing bubble and late payment by bad investments, get the credit to businesses and consumers, scared by all this, spending less and therefore less to buy companies that reduce their profits and, ultimately, generate unemployment. Besides the problem in society that this generates, it is clear that if unemployment rises and companies and banks earn less income are also lower because of the administration are charged less tax at a time that should increase social spending.
All this is very basic, nothing original but there is one factor that can undermine the confidence that usually goes unnoticed: the veracity of official data. And because they are not certain or not, but by the manner of calculating them. And it would take pages to explain how such data in the USA is distorted industrial orders each month with the orders of governmental machinery of war or the handling of the Department of Labor with the monthly employment data ... there are many examples. However, one of the most striking to me is the calculation of the CPI.
Take the example of Spain, whose CPI in 2007 was 4.2%, which should mean that average prices rose by 4.2% but it is clear that a TV-for example, do not shop every week or even every year But the milk (which went up 31%) is almost daily, or the pan (+14%) and fuels (+16.2%). Some say that the perception of these costs-to-be everyday makes us believe that inflation is higher than it is but I think that is the weighting system which is not fair.
How is it possible that if housing prices went up by 30% annual inflation was only 3% if half of the household budget goes to pay the house itself? Let us go further: In the mid-20, share prices in the U.S. grew an average of 3.5 times in five years, but the prices of consumer goods did not vary significantly. Should we conclude that there was no inflation? Why? Why exclude the rates of inflation, for no reason, financial assets? If low interest rates we had in Spain in recent years had flow, rather than mortgage credit, to consumer credit, the CPI would have been fired (instead of housing prices) and it would have suffered Official inflation.
The current base weights of 2001 and are adjusted each year minimally. The latest data available are these:
| Groups | CPI base 2001
Weights 2002 | CPI base 2001
Weights 2003 | CPI base 2001
Weights 2004-2005 | CPI base 2001
Weights 2006 |
| 01. Food and soft drinks | 21.86 | 21.93 | 22.60 | 22.28 |
| 02. Alcoholic drinks and snuff | 3.22 | 3.18 | 3.17 | 3.07 |
| 03. Clothing and footwear | 9.93 | 9.90 | 9.73 | 9.25 |
| 04. Housing | 11.03 | 10.68 | 10.69 | 10.71 |
| | | | |
| 05. Tableware | 6.36 | 6.41 | 6.41 | 6.17 |
| 06. Medicine | 2.81 | 2.75 | 2.68 | 2.72 |
| 07. Shipping | 15.58 | 15.32 | 14.40 | 14.91 |
| 08. Communications | 2.57 | 2.73 | 2.99 | 3.28 |
| | | | |
| 09. Leisure and culture | 6.73 | 6.83 | 6.76 | 6.78 |
| 10. Teaching | 1.74 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.68 |
| 11. Hotels, cafes and restaurants | 11.27 | 11.18 | 11.23 | 11.45 |
| 12. Other goods and services | 6.91 | 7.39 | 7.39 | 7.72 |
| | | | |
| TOTAL | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
With these data you can see that inflation affects the poorest who are based consumption especially in the first paragraph.
Now that every reader will see if this table is in line with their usual costs and check that this calculation very similar in all the countries around us, is very subjective ... Of course, while we believe the data and return to the issue of confidence - Everything will be fine and accept that our salaries and pensions go up each year, the official CPI and so we think that we do not lose purchasing power.
At this official website you can calculate the CPI has risen far from the official dates (data from 1961):
PD - Still others are doing worse, look at the figures of the country most inflationary in the world:
Summary: press
Droblo written by the November 13, 2008 with 428 comments
Read more articles on Euribor.
'Oldest
There are no more new items
