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On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.
Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)
Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
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Sometimes it seems that markets have entered a dynamic so strange that even acting against what would be logical: OPEC lowers production and instead of rising, oil low, the stock market collapses and gold instead of serving Value refuge, also collapses, USA has the largest deficit in the world, which will be maintained for years, with a central bank that is assuming the risk millionaire asset that nobody wants and that its currency, the dollar reaches maximum years . I'm beginning to think that facing the end of the year and more than likely departure of money from investment funds what is happening is simply that all positions are rolled back in search of liquidity. And of course, as lower the percentage is more active and feedback movement. And also to push sales in other non-stock, hence, not hedges. But that same process also works the other way around because if the market rises there is less interest in selling, it's like the one that has a debt and has only one floor, according to the low price of the floor more quickly is worth before they sell it unless debt but if you have the floor suddenly rises in price no longer needs to sell it because you can get the liquidity it needs with the assurance that floor without the need to get rid of him. This causes a lot of volatility.
But why not just the irrationalities: Now the stock market likes that the crude will rise and depressed when low and the same with the €, unlike that for months, Cepsa (much smaller and lower profit at least 7 times) has come to worth more on the stock exchange that Repsol by the sharp drop of it, (this reminds me of when they arrived in Telepizza worth more than Domino's Pizza or Terra more than BBVA) and according to Bespoke 10% of companies that have submitted results in line with Expected been completed on the day of publication with an average drop of 1.80% (as if the results had been ill). However, the biggest example we know that Volkswagen had reached a EGY 90 when the Dax has a PER this year of less than 8 and Daimler has it at 3.7 and have even more value for capitalization that all companies producing cars of world together. Are we really learning something from all this if we continue to promote bubbles as dangerous as these?
Beyond these factors, there is a rational exercise we can make each of us self-polls. There are many securities that are in 2002 prices and are tempting us to make some investment but ask ourselves: Is the economy better or worse than in those years? And most importantly, our confidence in leaving the rut, Is now higher or lower than then? Then I remember that the biggest economic problem was the fear of terrorism and that it would start a war in Iraq ... now we still have more that all the problems we have been talking for months: credit crisis, high inflation, housing bubble and so on. and joined it in recent weeks: Stop worrying figures, emerging markets to the brink of collapse, public deficits to astronomical assumed by mismanagement of the banks and so on. I mean, what's the same bag goes up, that's something unpredictable at least for me, but since then it is clear that the real economy is not invited to optimism. Yet it must be stressed that in the USA have left two data consecutive home prices that give a respite to the bearish trend, at least in that sector and in this country ...
The summary of the week can be summarized in a nutshell: On Friday marked minimum annual all bags that I still except the Chinese and, curiously, the Dow Jones and SP500. On Monday, China, all European and Brazil signed the new minimum but not American. Tuesday marked the first bars minimal Japan and China but no more. However, if we take into account the future it that both the Dow Jones SP500 marked as the minimum of 5 years and a half but perhaps there were some concerns that they did not want to be in regular time mark. On Tuesday, with rumors of a sharp drop in rates in Japan, the USA had the second highest increase in history. On Wednesday, rose much Europe but not USA, which broke the increases in minutes from the descent of the EDF. And on Thursday, thanks mainly to Japan, continued to climb. ¿Conclusion? After so many vicissitudes week (Thursday to Thursday) has had a very positive (except on Ibex and China that ended flat to lower in recent days by 6% in total, all have had remarkable progress) and many believe has already passed the worse in October and has complied with its reputation for month of the crash but also from the soil ... I keep seeing that the resistance of speaking last week (1000's sp, 10 thousand of Ibex and the Dow, 5000's Dax) are still there and only have been overtaken, on Thursday for a few minutes, the Dax, who this week has behaved in plan rate banana republic by the theme of Volkswagen.
And just months and despite what has been disastrous and it has not observed any statistically negative-except for those who want to invest we can be confident that it will comply with these average data showing that November is the best month of year for the stock market since 1980:
However, against my usual, I will "get wet" a little more: to bet on a possible upward rally in November or even early January and be more secure is important to see what makes the bags on the first day of November . If you go up, does not mean anything special but if you fall, it is better to keep out of the bag because that means the funds are still undoing positions (the term that is becoming fashionable is "desapalancamiento") and not spend the cash to equities. So my advice is to wait until the end of Monday or Tuesday that the opening of comprobéis not dropped before they come to buy, if you decide to buy.
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Written by Droblo on October 31, 2008 with 247 comments
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Last Friday, shares of ING in Amsterdam stock market suffered strong selling pressure (at the close lost 27%) and rumoreaba were urgently in need of capital. The bank's management held a press conference to give figures for the financial soundness of the institution. Over the weekend the Dutch state has injected 10 billion € in the bank. This time no one can accuse the situation of the bank to a massive withdrawal of deposits since the Dutch state had guaranteed all loans until 2009 and, in fact, the rumor did not say that ING suspend payments but that it would expand capital and the Netherlands. So, what was said at the press conference on Friday was false. Once again, as he lied with Bear Stearns, Fortis or Northern Rock. In all countries the same process: the trend is more reliable stock of a bank can assert that what the authorities. And no one takes responsibility for the lies to shareholders. ¿Conclusion? At the moment there is confidence in the statements that assume the mismanagement of private banking but do Confidence in the financial system? What would be weird having it (the text of the press):
"The measure was taken just ten days after the same ING took control of the assets of the failed bank islándico Kaupthing. At that time, a communique from the bank said it did from a position of strength because it had more than $ 1.8 trillion in assets and 85 million customers around the world. "
And the British Barclays state offered him money after assuming the risk of buying the spoils of Lehman and I am sure if the Santander would like the Spanish state would give money with which to finance their adventures in high-risk British and American ...
Another topic, it appears that Spain wants Arab countries to buy state debt, up there perfect, but coincides in time with the purchase of the Spanish state debt from the banks. Ie Spain with its own guarantee fund picks, with that money buy what they do not sell their banks, trusts that these banks use the money to increase the credit and that those who capture the credit it back to the state via taxes ... I know that but as I said, Why do so many middlemen? If Spain is debt, which is to inject money into society and not to those banks which can not be compelled to increase the credit. Lower taxes or subsidies for mortgages and loans before recapitalize banks would be a lot more social and above all faster to end the crisis. Instead, we still do not return to those who were negative ...
As to bag it is clear that we have entered a range that is below a support at least a year and are now above the 10 thousand of Ibex (and the Dow again be paired), 5000's Dax or 1000 of SP500, breaking that level would accelerate the movement in the short (as we have seen this Thursday when the Ibex lost its previous annual minimum) without necessarily changing the trend in the medium term, which remains bearish aplastantemente. As it is not all bag, I think it is noteworthy that gold, rather than value refuge from the crisis, is another asset that is at minimum a year. And the explanation, apart from the rising and falling $ crude, which usually follows, is that gold has traditionally been the refuge against inflation and recession may now be discounted prices that seem been removed as a problem. This is Scramble to many investors and funds who once were compensated for losses in equities with earnings of metals, oil or food ... and even within the equities exchanges between emerging and non emerging. This year the losses are accumulated in a variety of products.
Finally, it was assumed that the October 29 the FED will cut rates and that the ECB will make the Nov. 6. The bearish trend continues and with it the Euribor. Hopefully crude oil continue to support the lowering of inflation although I must admit last week I was too optimistic about the price of petrol and I am confused by looking at graphics fiarme USA and a poor source of the Internet for transforming a gallon in his corresponding liters. And to top it all, the $ is going against us. And it's really odd that just before the elections the U.S. $, despite the huge deficit and its rates so low, is in the $ maximum of two years.
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Written by Droblo on October 24, 2008 with 438 reviews
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We could say that statistically women in Iceland are more prettier and the guys in the world, because with only 300,000 inhabitants have succeeded in placing a Miss world and they have two winners of the championship of the world's strongest man. In addition, they are a people ready since 99.9% of the population is literate and to finish the slaughter, live much as their life expectancy is 81.5 years, the second highest in the world. All this together with the air pacifist who have not offered the army. Without doubt a place to live, do not bother you if the cold and darkness. In fact, the chess Bobby Fisher ended his days there, although it was not very sane.
But what it does not feel proud, and if we win by win is in debt. If six years ago had wanted to pay all debts that have their banks abroad, they would have consisted of each of its inhabitants about $ 26,000. Much huh? but the worst comes now, if you wanted to pay its debts today, they would have to pay $ 280,000 apiece.
Much has been written on the net about the situation in this country (even commented here six months ago) and little new we can provide. It really impresses us is that a European country can go bankrupt but remember that only has 300,000 inhabitants and therefore we need to give it the importance it has. In fact, the Banco de Santander (which posts to wander, we could imagine in bankruptcy) has nearly 130,000 employees which means they may have more workers than Iceland whole.
At the end everything comes to an Icelandic saga root in interest rates so high that they had (15%) in an environment of moderate inflation, thereby sparing amount of international (mainly English) to invest their savings and there it was worse for the Icelanders, the amount of loans it asked both the public and businesses and banks outside the country, attracted by lower interest abroad. The successive devaluations of its currency did the rest.
A few days ago, a British financial portal made public the letter sent by the Internal CEOs of Landsbanki, one of the great institutions nationalized the country, to employees (Short and hit Expansion):
"Times have changed. In recent weeks, the international financial markets have deteriorated and were not seen since the beginning of the century. Have fallen many banks and others will do. Governments are taking extraordinary measures to adapt to change. Iceland is now the victim of the lack of liquidity that plagues the world. "
As you can see, there is no risk-free return and eventually much higher rates irrationally low as just giving problems. In this case will be that the IMF has to come to the rescue as if it were a Third World country and launch a plan of 4,500 billion Euros. Everything is a clear example of which was bought a bike that they could not.
As curiosity and demonstration of that money is very miedica, Icelanders who no longer have confidence in its banking like crazy looking for alternatives for their savings and including luxury watches have become a good alternative, at least so says a representative Rolex.
"Customers want something they may have in your hand. They have no confidence in the numbers of their computers, because they saw these numbers fade "
This statement must be fuck with tongs (it seems more a press release of the watch), but it is clear that if there are any good tangible fear gives us more security.
And to finish with the Icelandic saga and the wisdom that lately are taking the rating agencies, let us not forget that not many years ago the bonds of Iceland had the credit rating of AAA, (and subsequently downgraded to Aaa, which is not bad) let's see which stated year and a half ago.
"Iceland is not experiencing excessive risk to the solvency or liquidity as a result of the recent volatility in the financial and business cycles," said Moody's Investors Service in a note published today. The firm maintains the highest rating of Aaa to the island's north.
"Iceland is well positioned to deal with any potential problem in its financial resources that might emanate from a systemic problem in any sector of its economy," says the analyst. "Our rating of Aaa is compatible with such a scenario," he adds.
The key ....
So in conclusion, let's see what we have today means:
Written by Carlos Lopez on Oct. 22, 2008 with 388 comments
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Friday September 19 2008: Hours before Paulson announced an ambitious plan to rescue financially. European stock markets make the biggest rise in its history entrusted to it in the end to the crisis. 3 weeks after these same bags had fallen since the close of that day more than 25%, a quarter of its value Monday Oct 13: Several hours before governments approve a plan to safeguard the health bank. European stock markets again marked the biggest rise in historia.3 days after their increase has been volatilized, And yet there are those who believe that we will learn from this crisis when time and again repeat the same mistakes? This week we're still positive on that but I still indexes closed Thursday at close of Thursday (we save space by putting) the situation is very bad. The British stock market for example has lost 10.48% in the week despite having injected millions and millions of € to shore up its financial system. Perhaps even more rounds remaining this cartridge or perhaps need more time but it seems that continue to burn, consumed and the stock market does not react. Neither the interbank. Neither the economy.
Changing the subject, on Wednesday left the auction of treasury bills to 12 months to 2 points below Euribor! We are talking about the Spanish state which is funded almost 40% cheaper in the same period which commercial banks and if we add the spreads on the Euribor almost half that individuals and companies. IF this same state that so many assurances that have offered to guarantee liquidity for just over a year all claims, why there is still much distrust, why not lend money to one year in interest if a bank bankruptcy will be aided by the state rather than pass it on to the state by 40% cheaper? The only explanation I can think of is that there is confidence in the soundness of the state but not in its ability to meet its commitments to the banks ... Is not that serious? And so, would it not be easier then it was the state that gave us the liquidity via reduction in taxes that do not track back to a bench that is still without his money?
As for seasonal patterns, technological values on average do better than the overall market over the last three months of the year. In each of the past five years, the Nasdaq Composite has risen more than the SP 500 index in the last quarter, perhaps for the "Christmas campaign" that focuses largely on consumer electronic devices. Another said that in the past 16 years, the worst that it had in the first three quarters of the year, was always the best sector in the fourth quarter, which in theory should be good for the financial sector. However, the uniqueness of these days do little reliable data. It should be borne in mind that in the past 80 years nop ahn arrived or 40 days in which the Dow Jones has risen more than 6% in a single sitting and just this year has been so bearish and several times ... To height of uncertainty today is expiration of some futures and options (such as the Ibex) and thus further distorting the ability to pause an analysis of the situation.
If a council permitís me, I know that many are waiting to see levels similar to those of the annual minimum to buy but if we reach those levels and lose the crash can be brutal, it is unwise to enter bearish trend when it is in levels of support, it is better to go when you're back. Aim to buy at a minimum is entelechy. The time to buy, on the contrary, it will be when you have climbed well over how it is now. I follow the SP500 because it is the principal stock exchange in the world and one of the most "technical" and do not recommend buying until there are levels of 1150 (closed yesterday near 950), this will be the test for me that the market is has given a return, then it is only for trading, "in-bags" in language more castizo, but not to hope for a change of trend, is to "look, not touch." In any case, the first thing you should do is calm down the market, that will be the first sign of a significant reduction of fear.
Finally, I think the bearish trend of the Euribor will continue: if everything goes well because there will be more credit and relax the fear factor that gripped the now 12-month interbank and if you're wrong, because it will lower rates a coordinated and influence something. Falling crude oil or from afar been reflected in the price of fuel and when I do (if it maintained two months at around $ 75 I calculate that gasoline should be 80 cents for January) inflation will give many joys official .
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Written by Droblo on October 17, 2008 with 323 reviews
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Not so long ago I saw in several ways irrelevant the news about the "crudívoros," some individuals quite peculiar because although not vegetarians in your life have never tried a roast lamb because they eat raw food. Many, they are still more pure and who practice naturism. As you can see a pelín away from our concept of life but despite everything, including such "tribes" it would very difficult to live without banks, so for this rescado this interesting article Can we dispense with the banks?
In a recent report by the Bank of Spain payment means that no more than 3% of financial operations in our country are paid in cash. The organization puts the direct debit of receipts to the head (46%), followed by debit cards and credit (31%), transfers (16%) and checks (4%), with the exception that in terms amount of the transfers highlighted with 76% of the total. However, despite these figures, the answer to the question of whether one can live without having any relationship with the bank, no doubt entails: Yes, it can be. No one can force a citizen to pay a receipt within its account, or to collect their payroll in the same way. In any case, the right thing to reflect on the "bank" of our life would ask: Is it wants to live without money in the bank?
Perhaps out briefly in new tribes called "efectívoros" which dispense entirely of banking services, but in that case I fear that will not reach too far.
When we read the news about the aid going to the banks, we took away their hands to his head thinking about why we give them, not to citizens. Unfortunately, banks are required in the world in which we live, both for the development of trade as to the proper functioning of businesses and consumers What would an airline without a bank to make a loan or ask the leasing of a airplane? And a car factory that wanted to invest in new machines? And for us, that we would have to buy the car for cash?
As we can see, this is a necessary evil and though escuezan certain steps I fear that something must be done in order not to sink the boat we are in, but let's see what other measures may have been in a crisis like this, we go for it a cast in black and 7 years we traveled back and a voice-over, hand in hand with Droblo tells us ....
11 S-2001 accelerated the downward trend in interest rates and, as has happened recently with the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, persuaded the authorities of the magnitude of the crisis and the need for extraordinary measures. This not only caused a sharp drop in interest rates, also keeping an excessive time in a move that should have been exceptional and temporary. The positive effect of these low rates was that the money flowed much more and revived the economy: more and more consumer spending and public finances (delighted with this) lower interest payments. El negativo tuvo dos vertientes: el aumento disparatado de precios de muchos activos (desde las acciones al crudo pasando por la vivienda o el arroz) y la necesidad de muchos bancos de utilizar la ingeniera financiera para aumentar los beneficios -ya que los tipos bajos reducían los diferenciales- y aumentar los volúmenes de sus operaciones especulativas.
Las consecuencias ya las conocemos (resumiendo mucho): muchos particulares, muchas empresas y muchos bancos (y muchos estados, recordemos el enorme déficit norteamericano) se han endeudado en exceso y por efecto de la globalización han contagiado sus problemas a todos.
Esta crisis del crédito ha llevado al extremo contrario: nadie quiere prestar dinero a nadie y da igual si los tipos son altos o bajos. Ese es el gran tema a debate: ¿Cómo salir de la crisis sin financiación de los proyectos, sin un capital para construir una urbanización o una empresa o para contratar a más gente? Si la banca privada se resiste a ello, sólo hay una opción: que el propio estado haga llegar la liquidez a la sociedad.
Es admirable el valor de los USA, y más con sus cifras macro, jugándosela a arreglar esta situación comprometiendo los ingresos de sus ciudadanos durante años pero salvando a determinados bancos, ¿conseguirán que éstos vuelvan a conceder créditos, que los ciudadanos se atrevan a hipotecarse durante decenios, que las empresas apuesten por una reactivación del consumo y creen empleo? Yo dudo mucho que esta sea la manera de hacer llegar dinero a la sociedad.
Muchos analistas hablan de esta crisis ya en pasado pero yo no creo la confianza haya vuelto ni vaya a volver en mucho tiempo con lo que es la pescadilla que se muerde la cola: no se invierte por miedo a las pérdidas y sin inversiones las pérdidas son irremediables. Y para los estados eso supone menos ingresos por IVA y por impuestos indirectos y más gastos de cobertura social… Creo es imprescindible se haga llegar liquidez a la sociedad y sólo se me ocurre un modo: reduciendo drásticamente los impuestos y por lo tanto asumiendo el Reino de España -hasta que le sea devuelto vía más actividad económica- la tarea de endeudarse por sus ciudadanos. Si el dinero se destina a que los hogares dispongamos de más efectivo consumiremos más y/o reduciremos nuestras deudas pero si, siguiendo el ejemplo USA, se destina a comprar los “pufos” de los bancos y cajas de ahorro, sólo se conseguirá que unos pocos “salven el culo”.
PD. Contrariamente a lo que muchos creen los estados -y sus gobiernos- son los primeros beneficiados de los tipos de interés bajos. No hay mayor deudor en el mundo que los USA y desde luego el mayor de España es el Reino de España. De ahí lo estéril de la polémica política PP-PSOE sobre el superávit o no presupuestario ya que debiendo el dinero que debemos, ¿Qué importa que un año las cuentas sean positivas? Si me permitís una expresión muy castiza: ese es el chocolate del loro. Aquí están los datos:
La deuda emitida por el estado español sumaba 303.618 millones de euros el 31 de marzo de este año a la que hay que sumar la de las comunidades autónomas, ayuntamientos, la de RENFE o RTVE (que es deuda respaldada por el estado) etc. A grosso modo podemos decir que cada español debe unos 8.000 euros y que paga unos intereses al año, suponiendo un 5% de tipo medio de esa deuda, de unos 400 euros.
Un euribor a 12 meses más bajo es, pues, algo muy beneficioso para los estados que casi todas las semanas emiten nueva deuda pública.
Y pare terminar, el habitual resumen de prensa en un día relativamente tranquilo:
Escrito por Carlos y Droblo el 15 de Octubre de 2008 con 354 comentarios
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