The black money is one that is not controlled by the authorities and may come either from legal activities (the lower volume, usually occurs when writing a retail value of the house that really is negotiated or when not declared an income for rent etc.y that is the easiest is detected) or illegal activities, the more damage it does, both the Treasury, because the volume is huge defraudatorio as by the social implications of this illegal activity.
Outside of those two groups have prostitution in most cases is simply a labor-droit (non-regulated), but it moves a huge amount of money that escapes the treasury (18,000 million € per year) and which is known for and all accepted. I wonder, why? If it is known that some people have an income for work they do, why not pay? And we entered the hypocrisy of the obvious and the laws recaudatorias so obvious to social security, contracts and even the very existence of something that seems to many like the inconvenience that some people rent out their bodies to others for a limited time .
But the most serious cases are those that encompass the black money from the trafficking in women, weapons, drugs, business-screen that never pay taxes, terrorism and so on. All these crimes and generate some more money, mostly, we know where he is. And yet we continue to prefer to pursue the camel neighborhood or the owner of the Puti-club before tackling the root of the problem. I speak of course of tax havens.
These are areas (sometimes country, sometimes not) to protect the identity of companies that have and / or bank accounts there. It is clear that the companies that have and / or bank accounts in a tax seeks to conceal something the treasury of his country. We all know and the authorities also know it. And we should not go too far because there are even within the European Union but outside its jurisdiction as is the case of 1 Gibraltar as a British territory (in this page you can view the list of tax havens).
Why are allowed to have sites where they can escape the capital that would do much good in their respective countries is something we do not know but it is terribly unjust punishment to those who suffer because of our lawful activity and to charge for payroll, we ultravigilados by the Treasury. However, apart from the actual crime prosecutor, the most serious and most sad and, of course, the most hypocritical, is that they permit, and that if such havens exist and could not have control of large flows of money move in the world, it would be much easier to break the networks of illegal activity. Drug trafficking, as we understand it at present, would disappear, the money diverted to terrorist groups were quickly discover, that is, win in the economic, social, in politics ... not only increase the income of tax, disappear entire networks of subversive activities.
Thus, there is no excuse. Why wait?
PD - In this official liaison USA month to month we can see the source of the money flows abroad to invest in assets that country. It is very interesting in itself but what is most striking is so high because they receive the "Caribbean bankings" (obviously tax havens where many Americans have their capital to invest in assets without paying taxes for the Treasury of his country)
Droblo written by the November 26, 2008 with 336 reviews
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Personal comment.
On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.
Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (Continue reading ...)
Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
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An ancient legend has it Sheram, the Indian prince, was so astonished when they learned the game of chess, who wanted to reward generously Sessa, the inventor of that entertainment. He said: "Ask me anything you want." Sessa replied: "Sovereign, which sends me a grain of wheat delivered by the first section of the board, two for second, four for third, eight in the fourth, and so on until the box 64".
The prince could not please, because the result of that operation S = 1 + 2 + 4 + + 2 ... 63 is about 18 trillion grains. To get that would sow the entire Earth 65 times.
Sometimes I think that some banks have been passed as the prince's story, which first promised the money and then we have estimated and that is not what they had or had human form that he had.
In February 2006 there was a political controversy in the United States following the purchase of the management of six major ports by a Dubai state-owned. The President Bush hailed the operation but the Congress, arguing national security, managed to go delaying the agreement until finally a U.S. company took over the contract. Many Americans were afraid that Dubai-ally regarded by the government but in Muslim-majority manage something as important as the safety of the major seaports of the country.
However, in the financial world, the main U.S. lead months and months looking for money regardless of their origin. The liquidity crisis of confidence and has given back to the tortilla and not know what Americans think of walking but no executives do not disclose financial problems to the savings (and therefore also the management of pensions in a country where they are mostly private), the decision to grant credits and direction of investment by major banks in the world (in the list of those who have received money from Asia are also the Swiss UBS and Britain's Barclays) are largely mediated by governments that are dictatorships (such as UAE and Kuwait or China where there are elections but women could not vote), representing a population largely anti-Western and whose geostrategic interests (such as Chinese) are conflicting with the USA interests.
To top the liquidity available in the U.S. for equities (in the fixed income process is not well) according to official figures has been largely designed by fund managers to buy outside the country:
In the first eight months investors Americans took 68 bn. $ Of equity funds, of which 51.8 bn. were funds that invested in U.S. stock market. A year ago was much worse: entries from 81 bn. $ In equity funds with sales of 16.4 bn. funds that invested in U.S. stock market.
That is, in 2007 bought a large amount of money outside the U.S. and made money out of the bag USA. It could have been by $ distrust toward a thought (that was correct until very recently) of higher returns on assets in yen and € but it is symptomatic: USA managers draw money from the American equities even uptrend and now begging for money Arabic and Chinese.
Should not because the U.S. authorities in their efforts to monitor these flows interventionist? And investors should not arise in Asia that might not be best to buy where there sell? And the big question: Will there be enough money in the world to address this or as the story will have to wait 65 crops?
PS: And since today is a day in which as noted is consummated a change in the chairmanship USA and we're talking about miscalculations might be interesting to recall the cost of the Iraq intervention that the Nobel JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ estimated in March this year and $ 3 trillion according to some voices that should already be in the 4 billion. Money which, remember, has been thrown sunk by as many taxes they pay to state that some companies have won contracts in Iraq, will not arrive or 10% of that figure. Who says that the reason for all the depth of this crisis can not be in this cost themselves when U.S. authorities argue that less than 1 trillion will fix the financial crisis?
And to complete the usual summary of the press in which we are all aware of as he lay on the economy Obama's victory:
Written by Droblo on November 5, 2008 with 259 comments
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Building on that this week I have worked very little on the blog I get up prontito this Saturday to bring the commentary of the week and present an interesting graphic courtesy of Droblo.
Let's turn to the comment that came from a doubt that he had "clarified" about the collective thoughts and behaviors:
# 14, rinsing
October 24, 2008, at 9:24.
And as a gift, an interesting graphic, it is the Japanese stock prices (the Nikkei index) short and you hit what you told me Droblo (and who today says the Carpathians in Five Days):
THE FIGURE OF THE DAY: The Nikkei has marked the second lowest closing since 1983, the April 28, 2003 was the lowest closing (7607) although the figure to be weekly gave the impression that today is lower. In any case, catastrophic ... and if we take into account the rise in inflation in these 25 years and the figure is even worse ...
"The stock market is the best long term investment" Menuda irony
Written by Carlos Lopez on Oct. 25, 2008 with 66 comments
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Friday September 19 2008: Hours before Paulson announced an ambitious plan to rescue financially. European stock markets make the biggest rise in its history entrusted to it in the end to the crisis. 3 weeks after these same bags had fallen since the close of that day more than 25%, a quarter of its value Monday Oct 13: Several hours before governments approve a plan to safeguard the health bank. European stock markets again marked the biggest rise in historia.3 days after their increase has been volatilized, And yet there are those who believe that we will learn from this crisis when time and again repeat the same mistakes? This week we're still positive on that but I still indexes closed Thursday at close of Thursday (we save space by putting) the situation is very bad. The British stock market for example has lost 10.48% in the week despite having injected millions and millions of € to shore up its financial system. Perhaps even more rounds remaining this cartridge or perhaps need more time but it seems that continue to burn, consumed and the stock market does not react. Neither the interbank. Neither the economy.
Changing the subject, on Wednesday left the auction of treasury bills to 12 months to 2 points below Euribor! We are talking about the Spanish state which is funded almost 40% cheaper in the same period which commercial banks and if we add the spreads on the Euribor almost half that individuals and companies. IF this same state that so many assurances that have offered to guarantee liquidity for just over a year all claims, why there is still much distrust, why not lend money to one year in interest if a bank bankruptcy will be aided by the state rather than pass it on to the state by 40% cheaper? The only explanation I can think of is that there is confidence in the soundness of the state but not in its ability to meet its commitments to the banks ... Is not that serious? And so, would it not be easier then it was the state that gave us the liquidity via reduction in taxes that do not track back to a bench that is still without his money?
As for seasonal patterns, technological values on average do better than the overall market over the last three months of the year. In each of the past five years, the Nasdaq Composite has risen more than the SP 500 index in the last quarter, perhaps for the "Christmas campaign" that focuses largely on consumer electronic devices. Another said that in the past 16 years, the worst that it had in the first three quarters of the year, was always the best sector in the fourth quarter, which in theory should be good for the financial sector. However, the uniqueness of these days do little reliable data. It should be borne in mind that in the past 80 years nop ahn arrived or 40 days in which the Dow Jones has risen more than 6% in a single sitting and just this year has been so bearish and several times ... To height of uncertainty today is expiration of some futures and options (such as the Ibex) and thus further distorting the ability to pause an analysis of the situation.
If a council permitís me, I know that many are waiting to see levels similar to those of the annual minimum to buy but if we reach those levels and lose the crash can be brutal, it is unwise to enter bearish trend when it is in levels of support, it is better to go when you're back. Aim to buy at a minimum is entelechy. The time to buy, on the contrary, it will be when you have climbed well over how it is now. I follow the SP500 because it is the principal stock exchange in the world and one of the most "technical" and do not recommend buying until there are levels of 1150 (closed yesterday near 950), this will be the test for me that the market is has given a return, then it is only for trading, "in-bags" in language more castizo, but not to hope for a change of trend, is to "look, not touch." In any case, the first thing you should do is calm down the market, that will be the first sign of a significant reduction of fear.
Finally, I think the bearish trend of the Euribor will continue: if everything goes well because there will be more credit and relax the fear factor that gripped the now 12-month interbank and if you're wrong, because it will lower rates a coordinated and influence something. Falling crude oil or from afar been reflected in the price of fuel and when I do (if it maintained two months at around $ 75 I calculate that gasoline should be 80 cents for January) inflation will give many joys official .
(continue reading ...)
Written by Droblo on October 17, 2008 with 323 reviews
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That is, many times it is said that the stock market is a casino, but this is a lie because in the casinos there are transparent rules, we all have the same possibilities and it is even possible to find a way to win. And if not that it ask the Pelayo, interesting Spanish family who managed to blow a lot better roulette at the casino in the world. To rescue this history written in a book for over 5 years and read in this excellent article which I leave with you a little abstract.
What the evening of that day! What the early hours of that night! Six family members Pelayo-brothers, cousins sit-in as many tables of roulette at the casino in Vienna. And we all win. Twelve million pesetas to change. That did not stop the music! The waltz of Uncle Scrooge! The heads of swearing in a Tyrolean room. The director with his photographs in his hand ... "Well, these sound like me ... Mein Gott! Pelayo Die! "Customers non grata in the casinos of half of Europe. What I say non grata, public enemies! His photos circulating in Madrid to Monte Carlo, Nice to St. Petersburg, as outlaws of the West. They will not armed. Do not cheat. But they are very dangerous.
As you see, are "investors" who have found their way, let's see exactly what was.
It all began with a syllogism. There is no perfect machine. The Roulettes are machines. Ergo ... Here is gansa pasta! Maybe not what Aristotle would have made so crudely. Let's see: the mechanisms of man-made, the atomic clocks that are more closely approximate the divine accuracy. However, it should be adjusted over the years, adding a leap second to adjust the official time on our planet to the astronomical time, the universe. Even if the atomic clocks back, why a roulette will be impartial?, Why not going to have their preferences, mimando to 21, say, to the detriment of 17? "Most of the systems believed that a number is most likely to leave when no longer appears in previous installments. It is not true. The roulette wheel is shielded on mathematical analysis, but not the physical, "said Gonzalo. "In the Casino de Madrid we realized that the Roulettes not observed the strict rules of randomness."
Unfortunately, the bags are not governed by the principles of physics, but rather by the psychology which is a science yet to be discovered. On some occasions we can detect trends mild but in times like now better leave it for professional players, as well the Pelayo said:
Reminded the joke of that player, traveling the world, was regularly sending a telegram that his family always repeating: System works. Stop. Send money.
Both in the bag as roulette occur in the so-called bouts, moments in which the statistic is adrift and we followed with 10 red or downs in the markets of 10%. As Keynes said "The markets can maintain their irrational longer than you can keep your creditworthiness." Just look at these weeks and its ups and historic low. What once was lost in a month, now is lost in one day yesterday without going further, went 8 reds in a row in the U.S. stock market.
The message that I want to convey is that we generally invest "in red or black" usually "win if the stock market rises and lose if this low," in the financial world when we have hundreds of possibilities that will allow us to have more profitability ( or fewer losses) of what we are accustomed. Though of course, no one forces us to play roulette and if we see a streak, it's best to leave things back to normal.
On this issue, more detailed and closely related to the game, we will speak next week Droblo, until then I leave with you the summary of the press in another black day (though with red numbers) for the markets:
Good morning everyone.
Written by Carlos Lopez on Oct. 16, 2008 with 364 reviews
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Following consideration of yesterday afternoon, today I remembered an experiment that explains some of the things that happen every day. By the way, thank you very much to all who responded to me yesterday: I did corroborate that, even paranoid, it is true that they are chasing me. Clópez, already knew that law of the bag, that's why I never made the case to analistos. But what really intrigues me is how we reach that situation of "knowledge standard."
The experiment is as follows (if someone has made before, I'm sorry, I do not crucifiquéis): In a locked cage, 10 monkeys, and in the center put a ladder, and on top of it a basket full of bananas. The monkeys were trying to climb cogerlos, and every time I did, outside plug and put a hose jets of water to the monkeys until it stopped climbing. When stopped the punishment, a monkey trying to climb back, and then return to throw jets of water to the monkeys. Over time, every time a monkey tried to climb the ladder, beat the others and grab it should not do so. The monkeys climb abandoned.
Then took out a monkey and put a new one. The new was going straight to the staircase, and the others beaten and grab it should not do so. After several attempts, the monkey climb again abandoned. So the monkeys were bringing to an old one and adding a monkey again for everyone profited. Every time we came a monkey and tried to climb again, he received a corresponding beating, which adds new monkeys that came before him.
Well, when the ten monkeys old had been replaced, the ten monkeys that were not boarding for bananas, and when one tried it, the other is what prevented coups. The detail is that none of these ten monkeys had been punished with the hose, but since he entered she saw every time I was trying to raise, he received a beating.
If these monkeys have asked them: Why are cascais to those trying to climb for bananas? Surely they had responded: "I do not know, but here is that things have always been done."
It gives food for thought on the History of Humanity, huh?