The week in the markets (31 Oct - 6Nov)

Personal comment.

After the miracle that was expected (and confirmed) this week, which is called a black and Hussein Obama becomes president of the USA (another miracle is that she does), I received news of aid from our government the mortgage and I thought if there were any other one this week and the government would have done if we are from here when called for direct aid to the people. But I am afraid that has not happened: the government first decided to deny the crisis and support the banking industry after a series of measures hardly justifiable to the alleged strength of our financial sector. Now they have submitted results boxes and banks and profits have continued to be astronomical (if they are not means that aid has not been a change of transparency, still missing that no entity in Spain this loss when there are solutions in other countries more solid than ours) decide to "help" directly to individual mortgaged helping them go through this slump. But once again become a more aid for banks to the public. I think in the forum has already been felt all the opinions on this subject and I must also say that very acutely so I just want to emphasize again that the prevailing idea is something like: "We are in the worst of the crisis, guaranteed deposits until 2010 and helped the mortgaged two years and then with the revival that will fix everything is "What will happen if those unemployed after a two-year moratorium can not find work? For this reason there is no response.

Of course it is desirable that all this is a bad streak but most cyclical of time this seems far removed from reality. The numbers continue to decline week to week and what is valued as improvement may simply be adjustments after a very sharp. Fixed in this original graphic where we can see how it appears the trend for banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve is changing, but if we compare with other periods in which there is not even needed to resort to the EDF, it is easy to appreciate the level of banking crisis of the USA and alejadísimo that this is settled:

I do not see any signal that enables believe that this crisis will last only a few months. E insist not to confuse the bag (which may well bounce for a few weeks as he was bouncing a few days) with the real economy. The macro data are disastrous, unreservedly and hope that the lowering of rates might change, whether justified or not-only be realized within several months, and that if this drives the rebate credit. If not, only reduce the benefits of saving without encouraging the activity to the investor. And the worst thing is that the states are running out of room for maneuver as in Spain itself has acknowledged Solbes (http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Solbes/dice/habra/recursos/afrontar/crisis/elpepueco / 20081105elpepieco_6/Tes)

Turning to the bag, the idea of "This is a pothole, a historic opportunity to buy, but months back in the upward path" is being installed. And yet this week (except in Europe, from Thursday to Thursday-closed flat, with some better rates and other worse) has come to a negative balance. And that if we look at the percentage rise since we have been minimal, is notable because the descent was very sharp. And was the upward trend in November and the maximum rise (Tuesday) after a day of low volatility (Monday). But neither with the help of central banks has been with the resistance led by commenting two weeks ago and is still stuck in a dangerous area. The Dax rose well above 5000 but has been unable to keep them in the SP and the arrival in 1000 has been the perfect excuse to very aggressive sales. The Dow and the Ibex nor have approached the 10 mil ...

The fear is still there as we saw on Wednesday because although statistically markets operate best on the day following the victory of a Republican than a Democrat the truth is that it should have been positive that the forecasts were met and there were no surprises, however these As of last week to buy the rumor and sell the news is becoming a habit and this caused a deep bearish movement. As I commented last week, while there are rises in quiet but there are a lot of threat falls hurry to sell. And he has returned to fulfill. However, I detect many voices that speak of buying in the fall of the year-end rally is possible .... I remain neutral and to envy to keep clear at these levels because I keep seeing danger to both sides. Today it is known the figure of unemployed last month and is feared to be disastrous, most of -200 thousand. As a curious statistic you remember that it was not a bad figure since March 2003, just the month in which he died the previous bearish trend and started the bull that ended in the fall of 2007.

And with regard to the Euribor, a point: that is truly novel now has one year deposits in financial institutions and which are due before 2010 and thus are guaranteed by the state, giving a return similar to the cost of a mortgage. It seems to me that an abnormality was corrected when 2009 arrives and there is much need for liquidity in the face of squaring balance at the end of the year. The Euribor rate comparing to a year with the intervention to 14 days of the ECB should better compare the returns offered by your bank for a year and what you pay for mortgages at that same bank and verify that the differential is not so much . Not to defend the banks with this, just describe a reality, the battle to capture a liability is so great that the differential between what it receives a customer with money and what they should pay that money for a mortgage is minimal. One consolation: yesterday in U.S. rates were at 1% and libor to 12 months to 2.84 (a 184% more), here had to 3.25 and the Euribor to 12 months to 4.70 (a 44.62% increase). But much remains could be even worse ...

(more ...)

Written by Droblo on November 7, 2008 with 297 comments
Read more articles on articles.

The week in the markets (23-30 October)

Personal comment

Sometimes it seems that markets have entered a dynamic so strange that even acting against what would be logical: OPEC lowers production and instead of rising, oil low, the stock market collapses and gold instead of serving Value refuge, also collapses, USA has the largest deficit in the world, which will be maintained for years, with a central bank that is assuming the risk millionaire asset that nobody wants and that its currency, the dollar reaches maximum years . I'm beginning to think that facing the end of the year and more than likely departure of money from investment funds what is happening is simply that all positions are rolled back in search of liquidity. And of course, as lower the percentage is more active and feedback movement. And also to push sales in other non-stock, hence, not hedges. But that same process also works the other way around because if the market rises there is less interest in selling, it's like the one that has a debt and has only one floor, according to the low price of the floor more quickly is worth before they sell it unless debt but if you have the floor suddenly rises in price no longer needs to sell it because you can get the liquidity it needs with the assurance that floor without the need to get rid of him. This causes a lot of volatility.

But why not just the irrationalities: Now the stock market likes that the crude will rise and depressed when low and the same with the €, unlike that for months, Cepsa (much smaller and lower profit at least 7 times) has come to worth more on the stock exchange that Repsol by the sharp drop of it, (this reminds me of when they arrived in Telepizza worth more than Domino's Pizza or Terra more than BBVA) and according to Bespoke 10% of companies that have submitted results in line with Expected been completed on the day of publication with an average drop of 1.80% (as if the results had been ill). However, the biggest example we know that Volkswagen had reached a EGY 90 when the Dax has a PER this year of less than 8 and Daimler has it at 3.7 and have even more value for capitalization that all companies producing cars of world together. Are we really learning something from all this if we continue to promote bubbles as dangerous as these?

Beyond these factors, there is a rational exercise we can make each of us self-polls. There are many securities that are in 2002 prices and are tempting us to make some investment but ask ourselves: Is the economy better or worse than in those years? And most importantly, our confidence in leaving the rut, Is now higher or lower than then? Then I remember that the biggest economic problem was the fear of terrorism and that it would start a war in Iraq ... now we still have more that all the problems we have been talking for months: credit crisis, high inflation, housing bubble and so on. and joined it in recent weeks: Stop worrying figures, emerging markets to the brink of collapse, public deficits to astronomical assumed by mismanagement of the banks and so on. I mean, what's the same bag goes up, that's something unpredictable at least for me, but since then it is clear that the real economy is not invited to optimism. Yet it must be stressed that in the USA have left two data consecutive home prices that give a respite to the bearish trend, at least in that sector and in this country ...

The summary of the week can be summarized in a nutshell: On Friday marked minimum annual all bags that I still except the Chinese and, curiously, the Dow Jones and SP500. On Monday, China, all European and Brazil signed the new minimum but not American. Tuesday marked the first bars minimal Japan and China but no more. However, if we take into account the future it that both the Dow Jones SP500 marked as the minimum of 5 years and a half but perhaps there were some concerns that they did not want to be in regular time mark. On Tuesday, with rumors of a sharp drop in rates in Japan, the USA had the second highest increase in history. On Wednesday, rose much Europe but not USA, which broke the increases in minutes from the descent of the EDF. And on Thursday, thanks mainly to Japan, continued to climb. ¿Conclusion? After so many vicissitudes week (Thursday to Thursday) has had a very positive (except on Ibex and China that ended flat to lower in recent days by 6% in total, all have had remarkable progress) and many believe has already passed the worse in October and has complied with its reputation for month of the crash but also from the soil ... I keep seeing that the resistance of speaking last week (1000's sp, 10 thousand of Ibex and the Dow, 5000's Dax) are still there and only have been overtaken, on Thursday for a few minutes, the Dax, who this week has behaved in plan rate banana republic by the theme of Volkswagen.

And just months and despite what has been disastrous and it has not observed any statistically negative-except for those who want to invest we can be confident that it will comply with these average data showing that November is the best month of year for the stock market since 1980:

However, against my usual, I will "get wet" a little more: to bet on a possible upward rally in November or even early January and be more secure is important to see what makes the bags on the first day of November . If you go up, does not mean anything special but if you fall, it is better to keep out of the bag because that means the funds are still undoing positions (the term that is becoming fashionable is "desapalancamiento") and not spend the cash to equities. So my advice is to wait until the end of Monday or Tuesday that the opening of comprobéis not dropped before they come to buy, if you decide to buy.

(more ...)

Written by Droblo on October 31, 2008 with 247 comments
Read more articles on articles.

Reviews of the week

I return to that good habit of highlighting the comment of the week, so given the volume of comments received (over 2,000) would be unfair to choose only one, so I leave with you who you have liked more.

Thank you all for being there in which perhaps has been more lively week in the financial markets of our lives.

# 22, Delshannon

# 9 J.

# 57, Upupa

# 28, hipotecaohastalamedula

# 23, FERNANDO

PS: If I'm going to the suggestion Up Up

Written by Carlos Lopez on Oct. 11, 2008 with 68 comments
Read more articles on articles.

With the box behind him

On Friday, at a dinner with friends, appeared from nowhere as one of my childhood friends. Nobody had it, since it makes at least a couple of years living in New York. When asked who was doing for these lands, told me that he had been working for JP Morgan (Pi Ji Morgan as they say) and that the merger with Washington Mutual were eliminated many jobs, and that one was him. For a moment I saw him crossing Fifth Avenue with a cardboard box filled with her cup of coffee for the fate of half a liter, a frame with a photo of his wife ... etc, in a picture as we saw for employees Lehman Bros.

Although he has apalabrado another analyst working in Manhattan, I knew how bad for him, it is never pleasant experience, but I found a perfect opportunity to talk face to face with someone who has lived the American financial crisis in its own meats, rising of gasoline in a country where the cars spend half unthinkable in Europe, the explosion of Lehman Bros, etc ...

As we were at a dinner with friends, nor could deepen much on the issue of crisis or much longer the issue, but what if I wanted to know was where was the daily work of an employee of an investment bank.

In a nutshell, he told me that they had observers in the areas Crusaders, for example observers of the oil market and other raw materials at international level, observers from several markets in one country (macroeconomic and political monitoring of a country), monitors certain regions, etc ... and each gave their opinion of what they believed could happen. It was crossed all these views and was produced a pattern of recommendations in terms of investment, which went to the links with its customers, mainly investment funds.

To all this I commented a couple of things, and what surprised me most was his response.

The first thing I told her was that if they had so many resources invested in observers, as might be correct that so little. I told her that even here they affectionately called "analistos" to what he skipped a smile. That told me that every worker is inside the chain of information and does not dominate the global, only its niche, and that eventually the bank tries to give guidance from many views. It is assumed that those who are further up the chain, can have a broader view. To tell me immediately came to mind a famous phrase that is included in some of the books on "The Law of Murphy" that comes to saying that "the decision of a committee is always worse than it could have given each its members separately. "

The other issue I raised was that it seemed to me that investment banks influenced unequivocally on the markets, meaning that not only were observers from the markets but with his recommendations for large funds, could divert funds to one sector or another to raise the price of certain goods and lowering the other. For this I recognized that "big" may "move the market" with lines between what I understood that if one day decide to go public, take the recommendations to tweezers of the great public.

For better and for worse of all is learned and the assurances of my friend helped me to see that in the current crisis is not only at risk because of the pawns of the construction and real estate agents as he could seem at first.

And finally, the usual summary of news from a very warm day in the markets:

• Awe stock market in Europe and Asia by new troubles in the European banking industry
• Solbes' concerned about the rapid increase in delinquencies'
• States unleash a war of deposits
• Germany saves Hypo Real State and will guarantee all deposits
• Solbes rejected "to help citizens pay their mortgages"
• Consequences of the lack of liquidity: A cathedral Brazilian accept alms with credit card

Good week at all.

Written by Oriolrc on October 6, 2008 with 283 comments
Read more articles on articles.

The week in the markets.

URGENT: U.S. HAS ADOPTED IN THE RESCUE PLAN FOR FINANCIAL

Personal comment.

According to a study by Bespoke if we take the lower S & P 500 from maximum to minimum Monday, we have 29.31% drop in 356 days. But since 1940, the average fall in a bearish market was 30.59% in 380 days. Does this mean that we can think of the soil in the bags? I reply to other questions: How would the bags without the ban on selling overdrawn, how would the economy without the massive injections of liquidity by central banks? Some extraordinary measures are becoming common and it seems that will last a long time and that is not good. The bags can have big rebounds but the economy is paralyzed because of the credit crisis and that is something that is felt at every level feeds such as paralysis because no one wants to invest: neither people nor companies. We can only state that in the end we are all, and that every day are entering less ... that is, the picture remains discouraging, this is not a crisis between "on average". Plan with and without Plan. A rumor that says the SEC (and in the EU seems to be studying something similar) will reassess the "toxic assets" in a more permissive may be more positive for the market than the plan itself, which strangely plan and despite the huge deficit that will cause, has strengthened to $ ...

Changing the subject. I have noticed that some journalists and TV Tertullian defended the words of our president on the strength of our financial system using the Santander as an example. That is like defending the viability of Jazztel from the number of Telefonica, Santander is a large multinational very well run and not as dependent on the economic cycle as most Spanish banks and savings. But neither can be ruled out errors in its purchasing policy: in fact both the Abbey National as part of its ABN bought almost maximum stock and its bid for mortgage banks in England is the least dangerous. In any case, I repeat, Santander is one thing and the Spanish financial system quite another.

A real test of that things are not so well in Spain is in the risk premium for debt issued by the Kingdom of Spain, which this week reached its highest respect to the German since 1997. In numerical terms, Spain must pay to buy their debt to him 10 years to more than 60 pipos Germany, bearing the same currency as that country and the same rating. The Spanish economy goes from penalty: the weight of the construction, real estate business and the dependence of the financial system, banks and middle-savings from the bonanza of these sectors shows a bleak picture. To make matters worse, evidence suggests that far from the worst we have seen so we can hardly atisbar a way out of this crisis. Yet our stock market has an index that purports to be representative: the IBEX, 35 securities with a very unequal weight and most importantly

• TEF (multinational phone that can give very good results despite the crisis has interests in Spanish because many countries, some with growth rates still very high)
• SAN and BBVA (two banks with high profits, unlike most banks in the world without any need for capital-quite the contrary are considered "predators" - and whose results are also linked with the international business)
• Repsol, a company that is in a sector of fashion, nor should be seriously harmed by the national crisis, and
• Companies in the electricity sector, which itself should remain unaffected by the crisis, especially for its high level of debt, but that seems curiously immune to any turbulence desirable because they are halfway across the world.
• In the index there are also builders, companies linked to consumption, an airline sectors ... very very bad bass players and profit forecasts given the current crisis in Spain ... but its weight in the index is minimal compared to those already mentioned. And it has the enormous advantage of not having weight of an industrial nature that have caused so much harm to other global indices such as General Motors to Dow Jones or the CAC40 Alstom.

¿Conclusion? The IBEX could be among the best performing index in the medium to long-term September and October so we have been proof-despite the fact that Spain has the worst economic numbers in Europe. But we must not fooled by this.

And in the face of the bag next week, with the permission of the U.S. unemployment data and assuming that Congress would vote the same as the Senate regarding the Plan:

• Although economic data is negative, the extreme pessimism in the market and the expectation accountants on possible changes, state aid to banks and even a global agreement in the G-7 meeting in a few days in Washington caused so much fear in the bassists that The stock market rebound appears possible some day ... but, again, more for lack of wanting to sell it for meaning and want to buy a marketing opportunity. And the trend is that background remains bearish, very bearish ...

(more ...)

Written by Droblo on October 3, 2008 with 238 comments
Read more articles on articles.

Sausage

There you can see where the black pudding, this humble product Gourmet, appeared for the eighth century BC in the celebrated "Odyssey" of Homer, from which rescue the following paragraph

"When a man next to a bonfire has filled a sausage fat and blood and turns to one side to another and waiting anxiously not afternoon roast '

But the story of the sausage is very sad for her because so perverse even be the sin to eat it, as well remind us in this article.

But does ay!, The morphology ill, that truism fálica, such rudeness enhiesta ended the sausage making it illegal: the church banned the lupercales and considered sinful to eat blood sausage. Then came Constantine converted to Christianity in the fourth century and became its flavor in flagrante delicto. The sausage became clandestine pleasure that the people enjoyed sneak up to the church and the emperor went through the hoop and legalized.

However, what the church nor the diets were light, it is possible to do so rising oil and raw materials because sadly I read that the change of sausage skin.

Collagen can make a solution more than aesthetics to the sausage from Burgos to survive the economic situation without dramatically increasing its price. La Asociación de Fabricantes de Morcilla de Burgos busca en este material un sustituto para la tripa de vaca, que en el último año ha multiplicado su precio por seis, según el presidente de este colectivo, Roberto Dasilva. La tripa de colágeno hecha con fibras naturales conseguiría no encarecer tanto este producto, que ya suma la subida de coste de otras materias primas.

Si queríamos una prueba de que la crisis llegó, aquí la tenemos en la morcilla y el preocupante hecho de que muchos productos de los que no suben de precio si bajan las calidades.

Tal y como están las cosas y dado que de momento el comer es un vicio necesario, muchos tendrán que comprar la morcilla con tarjeta de crédito .

Sin empleo, con hipoteca y teniendo que hacer la compra cada semana. ¿Solución de muchos? Más que apretarse el cinturón, tirar de tarjeta de crédito. Y es que aunque los rasgos citados no conforman  –todavía- el perfil de un español medio, el boom experimentado por la emisión de tarjetas de crédito en los últimos años no remite en el arranque de 2008. En el primer trimestre del año, el número de plásticos en circulación se situó en 43,78 millones, tras incrementarse un 10,43% respecto al mismo período del año anterior. Si se mantiene esta tendencia, la cifra podría rondar o superar a final de año los 46 millones, el equivalente al número de residentes en territorio nacional según el último Padrón a 1 de enero.

Afortunadamente para este entorno tan endeudado y para frenar los préstamos abusivos, tenemos una nueva ley que regula las tarifas de las empresas que ofertan créditos .

Las empresas de intermediación financiera y de concesión de créditos rápidos están en el punto de mira. Hace un par de meses se dictó la primera condena por usura contra una sociedad de préstamos rápidos , y podría no ser la última. La crisis crediticia y la dificultad de las familias para llegar solventes a fin de mes están impulsando hasta cuotas insospechadas el viejo negocio de prestar dinero.

El principal problema radicaba en que muchos negocios que te ofrecen un crédito para facilitar la compra no son empresas financieras y por tanto no estan controladas por el Banco de España con el consiguiente peligro.

Ayer pude leer en “El Confidencial Digital” un artículo que francamente no me lo creo y tiene pinta de ser un burdo rumor pero que puede dar mucho juego en la zona de comentarios y es que el Gobierno para reactivar el mercado inmobiliario va a lanzar una campaña de publicidad con el lema “ Los pisos no van a bajar más de precio “. ¿Debería el gobierno hacer algo para reactivar este sector o dejar que el mercado lo haga?.

Sin duda, el sector inmobiliario está mal en todo el mundo, como ejemplo tenemos a Manhattan en donde sus carísimos apartamentos se venden en muchas ocasiones por debajo del precio de compra .

Entre los apartamentos que más han bajado se encuentra uno ubicado nada más y nada menos que en el distrito financiero. Vendido por 590.000 dólares. Un precio muy por debajo de los 720.000 dólares que se pagaron en enero de este mismo año.

Lo que más me sorprende de esta noticia es que un apartamente en el centro de Nueva York cuesta prácticamente lo mismo que uno en Madrid…

Escrito por Carlos Lopez el 3 de Septiembre de 2008 con 227 comentarios
Lee más artículos sobre Articulos .

« Artículos más antiguos

No hay artículos más nuevos