On Friday, at a dinner with friends, appeared from nowhere as one of my childhood friends. Nobody had it, since it makes at least a couple of years living in New York. When asked who was doing for these lands, told me that he had been working for JP Morgan (Pi Ji Morgan as they say) and that the merger with Washington Mutual were eliminated many jobs, and that one was him. For a moment I saw him crossing Fifth Avenue with a cardboard box filled with her cup of coffee for the fate of half a liter, a frame with a photo of his wife ... etc, in a picture as we saw for employees Lehman Bros.
Although he has apalabrado another analyst working in Manhattan, I knew how bad for him, it is never pleasant experience, but I found a perfect opportunity to talk face to face with someone who has lived the American financial crisis in its own meats, rising of gasoline in a country where the cars spend half unthinkable in Europe, the explosion of Lehman Bros, etc ...
As we were at a dinner with friends, nor could deepen much on the issue of crisis or much longer the issue, but what if I wanted to know was where was the daily work of an employee of an investment bank.
In a nutshell, he told me that they had observers in the areas Crusaders, for example observers of the oil market and other raw materials at international level, observers from several markets in one country (macroeconomic and political monitoring of a country), monitors certain regions, etc ... and each gave their opinion of what they believed could happen. It was crossed all these views and was produced a pattern of recommendations in terms of investment, which went to the links with its customers, mainly investment funds.
To all this I commented a couple of things, and what surprised me most was his response.
The first thing I told her was that if they had so many resources invested in observers, as might be correct that so little. I told her that even here they affectionately called "analistos" to what he skipped a smile. That told me that every worker is inside the chain of information and does not dominate the global, only its niche, and that eventually the bank tries to give guidance from many views. It is assumed that those who are further up the chain, can have a broader view. To tell me immediately came to mind a famous phrase that is included in some of the books on "The Law of Murphy" that comes to saying that "the decision of a committee is always worse than it could have given each its members separately. "
The other issue I raised was that it seemed to me that investment banks influenced unequivocally on the markets, meaning that not only were observers from the markets but with his recommendations for large funds, could divert funds to one sector or another to raise the price of certain goods and lowering the other. For this I recognized that "big" may "move the market" with lines between what I understood that if one day decide to go public, take the recommendations to tweezers of the great public.
For better and for worse of all is learned and the assurances of my friend helped me to see that in the current crisis is not only at risk because of the pawns of the construction and real estate agents as he could seem at first.
And finally, the usual summary of news from a very warm day in the markets:
Good week at all.
Written by Oriolrc on October 6, 2008 with 283 comments
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Many times we have asked about here, what to do in the event we have liquidity because, as the market very few options that give us security and profitability.
A financial product that is getting very fashionable lately are the ETFs (Funds Quoted on the Stock Exchange) since joining the advantages of investing in equities (simplicity, liquidity and trading on the Stock Exchange) with those of traditional funds (diversification, exposure to a sector or country with a single product.) Its investment policy is to replicate a stock index or otherwise as long as it is financial. That is, you can replicate a stock index, fixed income, raw materials, national (Ibex 35, Dax Xetra, S & P 500, etc.), sectoral, and so on. For example, we have in the Spanish market of ETFs that replicate the major stock market indices for Chinese, Indian, Russian and East European markets such as the Czech Republic or Poland
These funds are generally managed by software and how well they realized the other day in Cotizalia, funds robot: the ETFs in Europe for the first time exceeded 100,000 million euros of assets.
The machines do not feel, nor suffer, for the moment, the financial crisis. Faced with the collapse of the heritage in traditional investment funds, the funds' contributions, or ETFs, traded in Europe experienced an increase in the volume handled by 3.2% to 100,890 million euros, according to data from Lipper - Reuters Thomson 30 June 2008. This is a milestone, as it is the first time that the figures rise above the 12 digits, more than 100,000 million
In Five Days also echo the huge figure behind these funds.
The increase is of particular merit, as the value of the assets have been damaged by the strong backs of the bags in the period. In fact, the Ibex 35 was left a 20.65% in the first six months of the year. In fact, to find the secret of his success there to resort to the boom of the bass players or inverse ETF, which, precisely, have the virtue of winning the fall of the index. Thus, the segment that includes these funds was the one who attracted the most money during the first six months of the year, while growing 21.58%.
When one thinks of investing on the stock, usually think of buying a basket of shares and expected to rise. It is part of economic optimism that we all, but we also have many options to reverse the downward slice and draw in times of crisis. There are many options for that but maybe one of the simplest are the ETFs.
If you wonder about the bank's investment options, we will show hundreds of possibilities, shares in his own bank, companies in which it has invested, funds replicating the IBEX, fixed income, and so on. But even in the worst moments in which the bag falls to lead (as now, we're close to the minimum in two years) and having many options to bet on low, we never try to sell a fund inverse why always Analysts talk about price increases down when we can win? What is this eternal optimism unfounded? Will we, nevertheless optimistic by nature?.
Drawing upon the human race from wikipedia we throw away yesterday (Punset) I find this interesting article: Our optimistic nature.
What we are discovering in the laboratories is that we behave so optimistic, but the reality is indicating otherwise. We are optimistic by nature. That is, invariably optimistic that sin not to sumirnos avatars in intimate caused by depression and pessimism. Evolutionarily, things have been so harsh that those bodies modeled by current optimistic arriving in greater numbers to fruition. To survive we delude ourselves to making us believe that the future will be easier than now. Expect to generate positive news and pictures with them mentally seductive, adaptive play a role: we model the behavior of the objective function in future.
Apparently, magnetic resonance, found the area of the brain that makes us behave well.
"Our results suggest that while the past is closed, the future is open to interpretation, which allows people to take away from possible negative events and move closer towards those who are positive"
Without doubt, an entire field to explore the neuroeconomistas.
Meanwhile, try to look with optimism to news of the day:
Written by Carlos Lopez on August 26, 2008 with 148 comments
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Despite tremendous sin of articles in newspapers, there is a phrase that I did not finish like it and is one of "Pessimism does not create jobs." Indeed so, but not create or pessimism or optimism, the often create businesses and entrepreneurs, who generally are realistic and know how to take advantage of the situation at the time.
A clear example is the wonderful business of defaulting:
If real estate funds and real estate companies have abandoned their interest in Spain, the same thing does not happen with the multinational recovery of charges for which Madrid has become a favorite of their capitals. A pioneer in Spain, the Swedish Intrum Justitia and French Contentia and Effico, he had joined recently, Norwegian or German Aktiv Kapital GFKL, which have been made with Spanish firms. Or the British Financial Link, which landed directly. If the business before it was given to the buyers, is now charged to non-compliant.
In Spain we had a company with vast experience in the industry, it is the collector of fractions and is lined with the crisis because it caters to 40% more cases in Spain.
"The phones burn in our headquarters. We have registered in just five months a 40% increase in the volume of services requested, because it is repeating the crisis of 1993-94, "says the commercial director of the signing, Juan Carlos Granda.Sin However, the worst is to come . "Every month we have more customers, but in September we expect a massacre," added Granda. The area north of Spain is the least defaulting show, according to the statistics of this firm. In contrast, in the Valencia and Andalucia have jumped alarms at the high number of debtors that has left the crisis in the construction sector at all levels: in the recruitment of workers, sale of flats, land ...
It seems that in this country to work we will have to change the monkey on the tails.
At collector fraction of it has left many competitors, all with a similar approach but with different costumes and we can see them dressed in Scottish piper, with a layer of Spanish knight of Zorro, the Clown collector of Tunø university, a Franciscan monk from (the monastery's collection) of the godfather of "Cosa Nostra" or even Pink Panther, the latter being the most that has had international repercussions, as in this, if the Spaniards have much R & D.
Another is that despite the decline continues as it is healthy Banco Santander which improved their performance by 22% in first half 4730 to win millions.
These results have been achieved in a very complex economic and financial that has caused a large number of global financial institutions, which compares with Banco Santander, have reported losses and have announced significant expansions of capital. In this environment, Banco Santander has increased its profit per ordinary share (EPS) 14.3%, reflecting its management capacity.
I Keep removing his hat before Booty and we can say what they want on their brutal profits but we will always have the opportunity to participate in them buying shares.
However, customers are not very happy with the bank since the rise in the Euribor shoots claims against banks and boxes.
The claims of customers to the Bank of Spain have grown nearly 10% in the first half with respect to the same period of 2007, mainly due to complaints about the interest rates on mortgages, which have risen substantially by the rise in the Euribor .
The Santander was the bank that moved to a larger number of claims in 2007 between the major entities, with 374 compared with 614 a year earlier, ahead of Banesto, with 238 in 2007 after receiving 230 in 2006, and BBVA , With 203, which improves and reduces from the 236 it received last year.
And finally, we look at the latest warning from the IMF on the impact of financial crisis on the real economy
What worries the Fund is that banks have increasingly difficult to attract additional capital. But above all, that the adjustment in the financial sector affected "negatively to the real economy." To that is added the problem of inflation, complicating the job of central banks to find a balance between growth and financial stability.
I am not bound to be surprised by the term "real economy", which makes me think that until just over a year we lived in a "dreamlike economy."
Written by Carlos Lopez on July 29, 2008 with 332 comments
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Pulling Wikipedia I find this interesting article by Heraclio Fournier.
Fournier produces 16 million cards per year and sells its letters to over 2,000 casinos throughout the world. Provider is approved in all international markets for casinos. It is the leading company for the quality and safety standards for their products. Collaborates with exclusivity in all major groups of international casinos in Europe, South Africa, South America, Caribbean, Middle East and Asia for the development of new products. The company is in full confidence that these groups to develop products related to the card.
Produces cards for all games in casinos and ensures that both the paper cards as the plastic work perfectly in all shuffled auto market. By the degree of knowledge available to the needs of international casinos, which reached perfection with its product, the levels of security and speed of service, Fournier playing cards are preferred by these temples of the game.
What we do not know is whether the cards will also be built this castle that told us yesterday in Five Days.
Hopefully that will crumble when this house of cards we're already retired and rich. " This phrase is an e-mail from an analyst from a rating agency debt sent to a colleague. The analyst, said that lines before they were helping to create a greater monster, 'the market for CDO', was wrong in one key aspect. The castle fell sooner than he imagined on December 15, 2006, when he wrote the mail
That's the big scam of credit rating agencies, which are supposed to tell us what companies are solvent and which do not. If we can not rely on them in what we can trust?. No doubt still in a crisis of confidence.
In all that we can trust is on inflation, which rises and rises and is already at 5%, the highest in 5 years. And the worst thing is that what goes up are not the jewelry.
Food and non-alcoholic beverages increased five tenths annual rate, up 7.2%, mainly due to changes in the price of fresh fish, rising more than a year ago, and of potatoes and their preparations and poultry meat, which in June experienced promotions compared to the fall recorded in the same month last year.
Normal, therefore, for fear the crisis is the main concern in Spain.
The rise in oil prices and food and the global economic crisis are the main concern of Spaniards, according to the Barometer of the Real Instituto Elcano, submitted yesterday. Over 70% of respondents antepusieron these issues of terrorism and climate change, which topped the list in previous surveys.
I must admit, that to me, I am more concerned about the crisis that climate change. Because since the planet heats up for a summer of the most refreshing.
Today is Friday and plays to highlight the comment of the week, that piece of invention to fill in the days that I fall asleep. This time our repeated Labordeta particular.
# 10, Mano H20
July 10, 2008, at 9:47.
PROTEST FROM NOW
Hello everybody.
I did not start but tense goats.
I read a news story this morning that I was cabreado amount.
"The city councils, with the water around his neck, preparing a sharp rise in taxes."
http://www.elconfidencial.com/cache/2008/07/10/4_ayuntamientos_cuello_preparan_fuerte_subida_impuestos.html
The text of the future standard is already being negotiated with the government. Could begin to be implemented by 2009.
In summary the new funding model provides for, among other things, two measures that affect us most:
• A new IBI (Contribución. Property tax) that the vast majority will mean we pay much more than now for this revolutionary tax. I remind you that by having the same or release the ear year after year after year after year ... ..
• A surcharge on the municipal income tax. Now we pay a portion to another state and the autonomous region of the shift, in most communities. Now, in addition to the usual, we will pay a surcharge of between 0.5% and 5% to the municipalities. (It is a way to return to government part, or all, of the famous 400 €)
And why I have been cabreado this press release. Because I am up to the very same that the way to solve things for political class, is to bleed and bleed to people. They were not happen to better manage public funds, they are not happen to save them.
No. I continue to spend, what I have and what I have, and arreglaré things based on asking more and more and more. Genial
And in the case of flats the subject cries out to heaven, the biorhythms or secularism. This also gives me.
Purchasing an apartment and loose a bite of the sea maja VAT (if new) or Capital (if used). Each year, for keeping it, the bricks are converted into € 100 bills and pay in addition to the contribution by Heritage (not in my case). If you then sell the apartment to rent paid by the increase in the wealth and the municipality of duty by capital gains (tax increase in the nature of urban land). Just missing imposed by inventing a "souvenir" of having had a flat. (It will).
But of course. As always we have different viewpoints.
For me, politicians are a necessary evil.
For themselves are an BIEN and we need an inexhaustible mine.
I protest. Although as usual we will have to see, hear and be silent. And the ear-drop clear.
Salu2
Good weekend to all.
Written by Carlos Lopez on July 11, 2008 with 298 comments
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The bag is very bad lately and did not seem to go in the short term to recover, despite all the punishments that are suffering some values beyond logic, pudiéndonos find with many companies whose dividend yield exceeds the inflation.
Therefore, in this troubled waters and we will continue seeing the entry of cazagangas with huge amounts of money and a lot of time to see improve their investments. Among these fishermen, highlighting the funds sovereign (sovereign wealth funds or state investment funds) that do not cease to be a lot of investments from countries with pasta dough.
It is estimated that the total amount of assets they manage more than 2.2 trillion dollars (1.3% of the global stock of financial assets), and in 10 years could grow to 13 billion dollars. By country, the largest sovereign funds are those of Abu Dhabi (625,000 million dollars), Norway (322,000 million dollars), Singapore (315,000 million dollars), Kuwait (213,000 million dollars), China (200,000 million dollars) or Russia (128,000 million dollars).
The reason that most sovereign funds are growing disproportionately is the dramatic rise in oil prices. In fact, it is no coincidence that the biggest funds belong to oil-producing nations, which use these funds to reinvest the profits of oil and thus able to provide new sources of revenue when oil runs out, says Marston. In fact, the fund-Norwegian model to emulate in terms of its management, was created to reinvest the profits derived from oil in the North Sea. "Basically were raised as follows: Instead of distributing all the wealth now, we want to save something for the future so that the Norwegians can enjoy an annuity when oil runs out."
Today, for example, we learned that a ruler of Abu Dhabi fund acquires 75% of the Chrysler Building, an icon of New York City.
Against this background, we have the European Parliament which demands more transparency in the management of sovereign funds.
Did not you afraid that certain strategic enterprises in our country may be in the hands of oil countries? Is it not disturbing that can be used and influence in international financial markets?.
Turning to more earthly matters and we have local accounts that Banesto was surprised with the 15% hike in profit and puts his late 0.79%. So glad to have crisis. Although those who see it are quite bad for savings as the ECSC predicts that the worst of the crisis will arrive in 2009.
He assured that it will increase the rate of delinquencies but the situation will be better than during the crisis of the nineties. Then, late payments stood at 3.9%, while the figure was reduced to 0.8% at the close of 2007. Quintas predicted that there will be an increase of up to two points in 2009 and a similar increase in the second half of 2010 ..
So we are back to business as usual, we are in crisis but with profits rising and people queuing up to buy the iPhone (which comes out today in Spain).
Written by Carlos Lopez on July 10, 2008 with 288 comments
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Okay, just had arrived earlier, but until it does not say El Corte Ingles, do not start really, really good at what dictates who is the Law 7 / 1996 of January 15, regulating the retail trade but if we have to take a Act for the rebates, we must look to Murphy that tells us the following.
1-If you like, do not have your size.
2-If you like and have their height, you do not feel good.
3-If you like and you feel good, is so expensive that you can not buy it.
4-If you like, you feel good and you can afford to buy it, will be broken when you first put it.
Murphy as good law, has no exceptions, but perhaps this year could be different because this time are the discounts to the desperate.
The fall in consumption of Spaniards has been noticed in the shops. Despite of staple foods can not be, the fact is that consumers have decided to postpone purchases of equipment from home, personal care, household appliances or cars. Therefore, for the shop-large, medium and small-they have no other option but to dip into aggressive campaigns to sell everything that is left in warehouses and shelves.
Where we have no rebate is in the share of the mortgage because the Euribor closed in June with an average of 5361% which means that next year we have to work 13 months as rising mortgage costs us nearly a month of Curr. In the same newspaper we read that the sales reach of luxury cars in the U.S., which gives me to think that as we spend in Europe with taxes.
Somewhat ironic, but true. A German suits him go to America to buy a German car. The same thing happens with Italian, French, Norwegian and Chinese. Importers of cars and all those working in the industry has always exploited the difference in price, leading and bringing a car to the other side of the ocean, according to the different exchange rates. But today more than ever, the business is round.
Continuing with the discounts, I think it would be a good time to take advantage of a promotion for the purchase of glasses closely because some can not read well the macro data. Do not miss the front page of today's "The Economist": Zapatero: "Well, I do not see the crisis." Should something bad happen when the stock market ended its worst half since 1990 and we have the Euribor at its highest ever level.
Cotizalia did yesterday in his readers an interesting question for us here we have done several times what is the real inflation in Spain.
Well, what is the real inflation in Spain, how much have risen, in its view prices in the past year?, Is a current phenomenon or the mud of joining the euro come sludge?, Is Because of the increased cost of living endogenous or exogenous? A lot of questions today that they put on the table on this day of futbolera hangover. An exercise conducted in mid-month by the Telegraph for its economy and that led him to conclude that the increase in prices in the UK was closer to 10% (specifically, 9.5%) to 4.2 Officially%.
You know, get discounts: Buy, buy cursed.
Written by Carlos Lopez on July 1, 2008 with 253 comments
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