Since he is no longer the "gold standard" and a ticket does not represent anything physical but simply faith in the issuer has formalized the old adage that says the economy is based on trust. While there is confidence the economy may be good but there are points "dark." Why? Because if consumers and businesses and banks to create a good future, spend, invest and provide and this will generate well-paying jobs so the virtuous circle will continue to operate and continue to spend, invest and banks to finance projects future.
For the trust do not miss the speeches of political and economic are mostly reassuring because if you lose falling economic growth and enter a vicious circle: consumers do not spend, companies earn less and reduce their investment and banks because they get the credit delinquencies increased. The order may be reversed as is happening with the current crisis: banks reducing credit to the outbreak of the housing bubble and late payment by bad investments, under the credit to businesses and consumers, scared by all this, spending less and therefore less to buy companies that reduce their profits and, ultimately, generate unemployment. Besides the problem in society that this generates, it is evident that if unemployment rises and companies and banks earn less income is lower because of the administration are paid less taxes while increasing spending on social needs.
All this is very basic and there is nothing original but a factor that can undermine trust and that usually goes unnoticed: the veracity of official data. Not because they are true or not, but for how to calculate them. And it would take pages to explain how such industrial orders data is distorted USA orders each month with government war machine or the management of the Department of Labor with the monthly employment data ... there are many examples. However, one of the most striking to me is the calculation of the CPI.
Take the example of Spain, whose CPI in 2007 was 4.2%, which should mean that average prices rose by 4.2% but it is clear that a television, for example, do not shop every week or even every year but the milk (which rose 31%) is almost daily, or bread (+14%) and fuels (+16.2%). Some say that the perception of these costs-to-be everyday makes us believe that inflation is higher than what it is but I think that is the weighting system which is not fair.
How is it possible that when home prices rose an annual 30% inflation was only 3% if half of the household budget is going to pay your own? Let us go further: In the 20s, share prices in the U.S. rose an average of 3.5 times in five years, but prices of consumer goods did not vary significantly. Should we conclude that there was no inflation? Why? Why exclude the inflation rates, for no reason, financial assets? If low interest rates we had in Spain in recent years have afluido, rather than mortgage credit, to consumer credit, the CPI would have fired (instead of housing prices) and it would have suffered Official inflation.
Current weights based 2001 and adjusted slightly each year. The latest data available are these:
| Groups | CPI, base 2001
2002 weights | CPI, base 2001
2003 weights | CPI, base 2001
Weights 2004-2005 | CPI, base 2001
2006 weights |
| 01. Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 21.86 | 21.93 | 22.60 | 22.28 |
| 02. Alcoholic and snuff | 3.22 | 3.18 | 3.17 | 3.07 |
| 03. Clothing and footwear | 9.93 | 9.90 | 9.73 | 9.25 |
| 04. Housing | 11.03 | 10.68 | 10.69 | 10.71 |
| | | | |
| 05. Tableware | 6.36 | 6.41 | 6.41 | 6.17 |
| 06. Medicine | 2.81 | 2.75 | 2.68 | 2.72 |
| 07. Shipping | 15.58 | 15.32 | 14.40 | 14.91 |
| 08. Communications | 2.57 | 2.73 | 2.99 | 3.28 |
| | | | |
| 09. Leisure and culture | 6.73 | 6.83 | 6.76 | 6.78 |
| 10. Teaching | 1.74 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.68 |
| 11. Hotels, cafes and restaurants | 11.27 | 11.18 | 11.23 | 11.45 |
| 12. Other goods and services | 6.91 | 7.39 | 7.39 | 7.72 |
| | | | |
| TOTAL | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
With these data we can see that inflation affects the poorest who are based mainly in their first paragraph.
Now that every reader see if this table is in line with their charges and found that this calculation is very similar in all countries around us, is very subjective ... But, as we believe the data and back to the issue of confidence - everything will be fine and we accept that our salaries and pensions go up each year, the official CPI and so we think that we do not lose purchasing power.
This official website you can calculate how much the CPI has risen from official dates (data from 1961):
PD - Still others are doing worse, look at the figures of the country most inflationary in the world:
Press Summary:
Written by Droblo on November 13, 2008 with 428 comments
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Personal .-
Last Friday, shares of ING in Amsterdam stock market suffered strong selling pressure (losing close to 27%) and is rumored were urgently in need of capital. The bank's management held a press conference to give figures for the financial soundness of the institution. Over the weekend the Dutch state has injected 10 billion € in the bank. This time no one can accuse the bank of the situation to a massive withdrawal of deposits since the Dutch state had guaranteed all loans until 2009 and, in fact, the rumor did not say that ING suspended payments but would extend the capital and the Netherlands. So what was said at the press conference on Friday was false. Again, as with Bear Stearns lied, Fortis or Northern Rock. In all countries the same process: the trend is more reliable stock of a bank that they can say the authorities. And no one is responsible for the lies to shareholders. Conclusion ¿? At the moment there is confidence in the states assuming the mismanagement of private banking but is confidence in the financial system? It would be weird to have it (the text of the press):
"The measure was taken just ten days after the same ING took control of the assets of the failed bank islándico Kaupthing. At that time, a statement from the bank said it did from a position of strength because it had more than $ 1.8 billion in assets and 85 million customers worldwide. "
And the British Barclays offered the state money after assuming the risk of buying offal from Lehman and I am sure if I would Santander the Spanish state would give him money with which to finance their adventures of British and American high risk ...
Another issue, it seems that Spain seeks Arab countries that buy debt, to perfect, but there coincided with the purchase of the Spanish state debt from banks. Ie Spain with its own guarantee fund picks, with that money buy what they do not sell their banks, the banks hoped to use the money to increase the credit and those who capture the credit back to the state road tax ... I know but as I said, why so many intermediaries? If Spain gets into debt, which is to inject money into the company and not the banks which can not be compelled to increase credit. Lower taxes or subsidies for mortgages and loans before recapitalize banks would be a lot more social and above all faster to end the crisis. Instead, they still do not return to those who had negative ...
As for stock market is obvious that we have entered a range that is below the minimum support in a year and are currently above the 10 thousand of Ibex (and the Dow once again be paired), 5000's Dax or SP500 of 1000, to break this range to accelerate the movement short (as seen on Thursday when the Ibex lost its previous annual minimum) without necessarily changing the medium-term trend, which remains bearish aplastantemente. As stock market is not everything, it seems to me remarkable that gold, rather than value refuge from the crisis, is another asset that is at minimum a year. And the explanation, apart from the rising and falling $ oil, which usually follows, is that gold has traditionally been shelter against inflation and recession that is now discounted prices seem to have been dismissed as a problem. This is descolocando many funds and investors who once were offset losses in equities with the profits of metals, oil or food ... and even within equities exchanges between emerging and not emerging. This year the losses are accumulated in various products.
Finally, it assumes that the October 29 FED will lower rates and that the ECB will make the November 6. The bearish trend continues and with it the Euribor. We hope to continue supporting crude lowering inflation but I must admit last week I was too optimistic about the price of gasoline and I am confused by USA graphics look bad and trust in the source of the Internet to transform a gallon in corresponding liters. And to make matters worse, the $ is going against us. And it is really strange that just before the U.S. elections, the $, despite the huge deficits and their rates so low, is the maximum $ in two years.
(more ...)
Written by Droblo on October 24, 2008 with 438 comments
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We could say that statistically Icelandic women are prettier and the guys in the world, because with only 300,000 inhabitants have put a Miss world and have two winners of the championship's strongest man in the world. People are also lists as a 99.9% of the population is literate and to finish the task, much as they live their life expectancy is 81.5 years, the second highest in the world. All this together with the air that gives them the peace have no army. Surely a place to live, if you do not mind the cold and darkness. In fact, the chess player Bobby Fisher ended his days in that country, although it was not very sane.
But what will not feel proud if we win and win is by debt. If six years ago had wanted to pay all debts that have their banks abroad would have consisted of each of its residents about $ 26,000. A lot does not it? but what is worse now, if you wanted to pay its debts today, would have to pay $ 280,000 per head.
Much has been written on the net about the situation in this country (even commented here for half a year) and can provide little new. We really impressed that a European country can go bankrupt but remember that only has 300,000 inhabitants and therefore must be given the importance it has. In fact, the Banco de Santander (which posts to wander, we could imagine in bankruptcy) has nearly 130,000 employees which means it probably has more workers Iceland whole.
In the end the entire Icelandic saga comes in the wake of the interest rates were so high that (15%) in an environment of moderate inflation, thereby saving many international (mainly English) to invest their savings and there it was worse for the Icelanders, the amount of loans requested both the public and businesses and banks outside the country, attracted by lower interest abroad. Successive devaluations of its currency did the rest.
A few days ago, a British financial portal made public a letter sent by internal CEOs of Landsbanki, one of the great institutions nationalized the country, to employees (Short and hit Expansion)
"Times have changed. In recent weeks, the international financial markets have deteriorated as not seen since the beginning of the century. Many other banks have fallen and they will. Governments are taking extraordinary measures to adapt to change. Iceland is now the victim of a lack of liquidity plaguing the world. "
As you can see, there is no risk-free return and the long rates as high as irrationally low end crashing. In this case will be that the IMF has to come to the rescue as if it were a Third World country and launch a plan of 4,500 billion Euros. A clear example of those who bought a bike that could not.
As a demonstration of curiosity and that money is very miedica, Icelanders who do not trust their banks like crazy looking for alternatives for their savings and including luxury watches have become a good alternative, at least so says a representative Rolex.
"Customers want something they may have in hand. They have no confidence in the numbers of their computers, because they saw these figures fade "
This statement must pick with tweezers (it seems more a press release of the watch), but it is clear that if there are any good tangible fear gives us more security.
And to finish with the Icelandic Culebron recent success and taking the rating agencies, do not forget that not many years ago the bonds of Iceland had the credit rating of AAA (later downgraded to Aaa, which is not bad) look which said the past year and a half.
"Iceland is not experiencing excessive risk to the solvency or liquidity as a result of the recent volatility in financial and business cycles," said Moody's Investors Service in a note published today. The firm maintains the highest rating of Aaa to the island's north.
"Iceland is well positioned to deal with any potential problems in its financial resources that might emanate from a systemic problem in any sector of its economy," says the analyst. "Our Aaa rating is compatible with such a scenario," he adds.
The key ....
So in conclusion, that we see today means:
Written by Carlos Lopez on October 22, 2008 with 388 comments
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URGENT: U.S. HAS BEEN APPROVED BY THE FINANCIAL RESCUE PLAN
Personal comment.
According to a study by Bespoke if we take down the S & P 500 from minimum to maximum on Monday, we have 29.31% drop in 356 days. But since 1940, the average decline in a bear market is 30.59% in 380 days. Does this mean that we think on the floor of the bags? I reply to other questions: How would the bags without the ban on selling discovered, how would the economy without massive injections of liquidity by central banks? Some extra measures are becoming common and it seems to last long and that is not good. The bags can have big rebounds, but the economy is paralyzed because of the credit crisis and that is something that can be felt at all levels, which fueled the paralysis because no one wants to invest, neither individuals nor companies. We can only state that in the end we are all, and every day are entering less ... that is, the picture remains discouraging, this is not a crisis that "on average". With Plan and Plan. A rumor that says that the SEC (and the EU seems to be studying something similar) will reassess the "toxic assets" in a more permissive may be more positive for the market that the plan itself, and who plan and despite the huge deficit it will cause, has strengthened to $ ...
Changing the subject. I noticed that some TV journalists and Tertullian defended the words of our president on the strength of our financial system using andalusia Santander as an example. That is like defending the viability of Jazztel by telephone, a large multinational Santander is very well run and not as dependent on the economic cycle as most Spanish banks and savings banks. But you can not rule out errors in its purchasing policy: in fact both the Abbey National as part of its ABN bought almost maximum bet on stock and mortgage banks in England is the least dangerous. In any case, I repeat, Santander is one thing and the Spanish financial system quite another.
A real test of that things are not so well in Spain is in the risk premium on debt issued by the Kingdom of Spain, which this week reached their highest respect to Germany since 1997. In numerical terms, must pay to Spain to buy its debt to 10 years more than 60 pipos Germany have the same currency as that country and the same rating. The Spanish economy goes off: the weight of the construction, real estate and financial dependence on middle-banks and savings-the boom in these sectors shows a bleak picture. To make matters worse, it appears that far from the worst we have seen so we can hardly glimpse a way out of this crisis. But we have a stock market index intended to be representative, the IBEX 35 securities with a very uneven and most notably
- TEF (multinational telephone can give very good results despite the crisis has a stake in Spanish because many countries, some with growth rates still very high)
- SAN and BBVA (two banks with high profits, unlike most banks in the world without any need for capital rather to the contrary are considered "predators" - and whose results are also linked with the international business)
- Repsol, a company that is in fashion industry and should not be badly affected by the national crisis, and
- Companies in the electricity sector, which itself should be affected by the crisis, especially for its high level of debt, but that seems strangely immune to any turbulence are therefore desirable for the world.
- In the index there are builders, companies linked to consumption, an airline sectors bassists ... and very poor profit forecasts due to the current crisis in Spain ... but its weight in the index is minimal compared to those already mentioned. And it has the great advantage of not having weight of an industrial nature that have caused damage to other indices such as General Motors and Dow Jones andalusia andalusia CAC40 Alstom.
Conclusion ¿? The IBEX could be among the best performing indices in the medium to long-term September and October which has been test-despite the fact that Spain has the worst economic numbers in Europe. But we must not be fooled by this.
And for the stock market next week, with the U.S. unemployment data and assuming that Congress will vote as the Senate regarding the Plan:
- Although economic data is negative, the extreme pessimism in the market and hope for accounting changes, state aid to banks and even a global agreement in the G-7 meeting in a few days in Washington, causing much fear that the downside stock market rebound seems possible some day ... but, again, more for lack of desire to sell it for meaning and want to buy a sales opportunity. And the trend is that the background remains bearish, very bearish ...
(more ...)
Written by Droblo on October 3, 2008 with 238 comments
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On August 12, 1961 in the gallery of Pescetto Albisola Marina, Manzoni showed the public what they were prepared for several months: 90 cans of small design bland but highly impressive. Each of these cans are sold by their weight in gold (not a metaphor, it was so).
These cans have become one of the big attractions of art and scandals of the time. Many legends have run on this, and even more once the public was asked whether the contents of the cans will be exactly where his artist announced. But acceptance of the controversial book, forty-six years after its creation, is unquestionable. Today, twenty-one museums in the world retain at least one of the cans, these include the Museum of Contemporary Art in Barcelona and the MOMA in New York. Last year, it reached 124,000 copies in an auction €
The title was printed on all four sides of the cans in four different languages: Merda d'artist Merde d'artiste, Artist's shit and Künstlerscheiße.
As you can see if we have a product, which is either canned and with the guarantee of a good sign we are able to buy "Merda d'artist" Gold prices may be the product of a financing package in which they are Some tucked home mortgages guaranteed by a prestigious rating, or may be the actions of a bank note with excellent (AAA) and if we need money we can sell these products on the market and are confident that all its value. But there comes a time when some realize that the content is worthless and that nobody wants to buy a can.
Fortunately, we can analyze the cans to try to infer the quality of its content. For example, the banks have the CDS (Credit Default Swaps) which are the investors who hire coverage to protect against the possibility of default by a company, we can for example, compare "fear" or the confidence that investors have in different banks. In some ways it might be the difference on the Euribor, which a mortgage bank to a senior official of the civil service compared to calling a poor fellow. Unless confidence, it is logical to apply a greater spread.
So as we look at these values showed the daily ABC in its print edition:
Spanish banks and
- BBVA 1.05%
- Santander 1.10%
- La Caixa 3.00%
- Caja Madrid 2.90% like the Sabadell, Popular and Bankinter that remains in the 2.85%
- CAM and Bancaja 4.85% 6.5%
Foreign Banks
- BNP 0.75%
- HSBC 0.91%
- Deutsche Bank 1.18%
- JP Morgan 1.33%
- Bank of America 1.48%
- Barclays 1.65%
- RBOS at 1.83%
- UBS 2.30%
- Goldman 4.5%
- Morgan Stanley 6%
Therefore, the overall situation in Spain is relatively healthy, although such data may not indicate the reality, it shows the confidence that what is most needed now. Yesterday, it cited the Financial Times.
In the article titled Time for central banks to learn from the lesson Spanish, invites investors to "take lessons from Spain, whose supervisory institution has implemented a rigorous and proactive policy that has contributed to the Spanish financial system can now weather the storm . This does not guarantee, of course, that Ireland will emerge unscathed from the crisis, the problems of the mortgage market still weigh, but in the opinion of the newspaper, the conservative (government) Madrid "has enabled Spain capee better temporary.
Most ironic of all this is that the same newspaper said that talk of the delicate economies of the "PIGS" (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) just 4 countries, which currently have no bank involved (unlike England France and Germany, for example). I do not know to what extent the lack of confidence in our economy have historically made us be more cautious and avoid taking risky positions such as other countries have done theoretically more robust.
In this environment, the boxes are in the mouths of many and even acknowledge the possibility of mergers between cash if the crisis continues. Without doubt, a merger is always better than a bankruptcy ...
Here he tells us that the business press:
We forget that tonight's on TV in the U.S. Congress intriguing film "Rescue Plan II".
Written by Carlos Lopez on October 1, 2008 with 203 comments
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When I was a tadpole, my math teacher taught me that never should add apples and pears. Apparently it is a truism almost insulting, but obviously there are many people who understood the example but not assimilated the concept. The same concept was repeated by the financial math teacher for several years later in college. "You can not add apples and pears can not be like adding money today with tomorrow's money"
- If you offer € 50 a month for 3 months, how you today? ¿150 €?
- What do you prefer € 100 € 100 today or tomorrow? It seems clear that today, so are worth more today than 100 € 100 € morning.
The capital sum can not be compared or if they are not at the same moment in time and to achieve this movement, we must apply a discount rate (cost of capital differ in time), which set in our view, but it is often used would cost you to ask for a given bank (Euribor + differential).
Then, the income is worth today (all payments) from the example of 3 payments of € 50 if the first payment is made today. Take 5% discount rate (0.42% monthly).
- The first payment today is worth € 50
- The second payment worth € → 49.79 today [50 / (1.0042)] (50 € one months back)
- The third payment worth € → 49.58 today [50 / (1.0042) ²] (€ 50 two months back)
The value today of an income of 3 monthly payments of 50 euros at the beginning of payment period (pre) is € 149.37. Apparently this is not an exorbitant difference, but it increases the effect of time differences.
If you would like to add € 50 € 50 today and within a year, would see that today are worth € 50 and € 50 within a year, worth € 47.61 today [50 / (1.05)], so the apparent actually worth € 100 € 97.61 (today). It is also true that same income 2 payments of € 50 within a year will be worth € 102.50 [50 +50 x1.05].
Capital to move forward and move towards increased last fall at a rate of (1 + r) n, where r is the discount rate and "n" number of periods.
These simple examples are not intended to be a crash course in financial mathematics, tomadlo as a demonstration that you can not add apples and pears for anyone to take as an act of faith to comment on the reasoning below. Faith for religion, for everything else, facts and numbers. Until everyone agree? Hold on since coming curves, I return to the topic or time share?
Example, asked typical blog:
I have an outstanding mortgage € 150,000 and 25 years and I am going to pay € 6,000 to pay off. (Euribor + 0.50). Against fee or term?
Sample response typical blog:
With Excel, I get that I have paid a fee of € 867.21.
If you save time amortized 22 shares and € 19,446.54 or half (867 * 22 +499)
If amortized fee to pay € 832.52 which means a saving of 300 shares x € 34.69 = € 10,407
Therefore amortized term you better leave € 9000!
The question is recursive and tiresome in the blog, but the answer is a financial disaster, adding apples, pears and kiwis and comparing it with the sum of a bunch of celery and some oranges Washington.
For the repayment term, they are ill € 19,446 plus, but as far as it is close in time (almost 2 years between the first and last, but we could give "no real mistake"), but how serious is that no one considers that, on average, are within 24 years.
En caso de reducción de cuota, se están sumando los 34.69€ que dejamos de pagar hoy con los 34,69 € que dejaremos de pagar dentro de 25 años en la ultima cuota, que capitalizados a fecha de hoy vendrían a tener un valor de 10,28€.
La respuesta correcta es:
Amortizar 6.000€ a plazo es equivalente al valor con fecha de hoy de una renta formada por un pago de 367€ dentro de 23 años y 2 meses, seguido de 22 pagos mensuales de 867.21€, ¿verdad?… Es decir, yo doy hoy 6.000€ a cambio de que dentro de 23 años y dos meses empezare a cobrar (dejaré de pagar una obligación que tengo) dicha renta.
Amortizar 6.000€ a cuota es equivalente a obtener una renta mensual de 34.69€ durante 300 meses.¿OK?…
¿Todos de acuerdo? Pues vamos ha hacer los cálculos del valor actual de estas rentas a fecha de hoy para saber que nos conviene y salimos de dudas de una vez por todas.
CÁLCULOS A PLAZO
Primero llevo los 23 pagos al fin del mes 300 para ponerlos todos en un mismo punto en el tiempo. (Existe una formula, pero se puede hacer con Excel sin mas problemas).
367€ x 1,0040741 22 =401.34€
867€ x 1,0040741 21 =944.51€
867€ x 1,0040741 20 =940.68€
867€ x 1,0040741 19 =936.86€
……
867€ x 1,0040741 01 =870.74€
867€ x 1,0040741 00 =867.21€
Suman 20.318,71€ y ahora traigo este capital 300 meses hacia atrás en el tiempo para conocer su valor actual.
20.318,71/(1,004074123) 300 = 6.000,17€ (¿que casualidad no?)
CÁLCULOS A CUOTA
Calculamos el valor actual de una renta de 300 pagos mensuales de 34.69€
(para aclaraciones)
El valor actual de esta renta es de 6.003,27.
CONCLUSIONES:
Hagas lo que hagas, dejas de deber lo que amortizas, y el valor actual de lo que amortizas es el importe que amortizas (tan insultantemente evidente como lo de las peras y las manzanas ¿verdad?), o sea que no hay opción mejor ni peor , en todo caso podremos decir que preferimos una u otra, pero eso ya son consideraciones subjetivas.
Financieramente, se puede asimilar una amortización anticipada como el “trueque” de un importe determinado hoy (6.000€) a cambio del ahorro mañana de varios importes diferidos en el tiempo (ya sean 34,69€ al mes durante 25 años o 22 pagos mensuales de 867€ dentro de 23 años).
Consideraciones posteriores:
- Si tomásemos otra tasa de descuento distinta al Euribor+0.50, el resultado seria otro número, pero sería el mismo tanto para cuota como para plazo si la tasa de descuento es constante. La otra tasa podría ser lo que nos paga el banco en un depósito, para saber lo que mas nos conviene.
- Si considerásemos que el tipo pudiese variar (que es lo que va a pasar aunque supongo que tenéis claro que no sabemos hacia donde), entonces si que podría ser mas beneficiosa una estrategia que la otra, ya que la estructura de pagos de las dos rentas es distinta, en una se producen todos al final, y en la otra se producen de forma regular durante toda la vida de la renta.
- a) En un escenario de tipos al alza (durante toda la vida de la operación) seria mejor amortizar contra cuota, ya que los importes entregados al final, al aplicarles una tasa de descuento mas elevada tendrían un valor actual inferior, entonces la amortización a plazo, que da sus frutos al final de la operación tendría un valor actual menor.
- b) En un escenario de tipos decrecientes, nos interesará reducir contra plazo, ya que la capitalización de los pagos lejanos se hará con un tipo de descuento menor, por lo tanto la renta equivalente estará menos penalizada y dará un valor actual mayor.
Lo mas probable es que la variación de tipos sea creciente en algunos periodos y decreciente en otros (25 años dan para mucho), por lo que no conseguiremos saber que nos sale mejor hasta que haya terminado la operación. Así demostramos una vez mas que la economía y las finanzas son una pseudo-ciencia que va muy bien para “predecir” el pasado, pero que para el futuro mejor llamar a la pitonisa Lola.
Toda esta explicación parece que hunde en la miseria la tabla Excel de control presupuesto familiar que os propuse hace dos semanas, pero a pesar de que suma manzanas con peras, la podemos dar por valida, ya que se trata periodos inferiores a un año, y tiene ingresos y gastos, y todos re reducen al actualizar su valor, por lo que el desfase causado por el efecto tiempo solo afecta al diferencial entre estos. (se reducen los ingresos pero también se reducen los gastos en la misma proporción al capitalizar)
Y para terminar e intentar deducir si los tipos subirán o bajarán en un futuro, si nos conviene ahorrar o amortizar o simplemente para quitarnos algo de incertidumbre, que mejor que leer las noticias del día.
Escrito por Oriolrc el 29 de Septiembre de 2008 con 256 comentarios
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