Personal comment.
On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.
Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)
Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
Read more articles on Euribor.
Since he is no longer the "gold standard" and a ticket does not represent anything physical but simply faith in its issuer has formalized the old adage that says that the basis of the economy is confidence. As long as there is confidence the economy may go well although there are points "dark". Why? Because if consumers and businesses and banks believe in a good future, spend, invest and lend and this will generate well-paid jobs so the virtuous circle will continue to operate and will continue to spend, invest and banks to finance projects future.
For that confidence is not lost speeches by political and economic decision usually mostly reassuring because if you lose falling economic growth and are entering a vicious circle: consumers do not spend, businesses earn less and reduce their investment and the banks get the credit because bad debt increases. And the order may be reversed as is happening with the current crisis: the banks reduce credit before the outbreak of the housing bubble and late payment by bad investments, get the credit to businesses and consumers, scared by all this, spending less and therefore less to buy companies that reduce their profits and, ultimately, generate unemployment. Besides the problem in society that this generates, it is clear that if unemployment rises and companies and banks earn less income are also lower because of the administration are charged less tax at a time that should increase social spending.
All this is very basic, nothing original but there is one factor that can undermine the confidence that usually goes unnoticed: the veracity of official data. And because they are not certain or not, but by the manner of calculating them. And it would take pages to explain how such data in the USA is distorted industrial orders each month with the orders of governmental machinery of war or the handling of the Department of Labor with the monthly employment data ... there are many examples. However, one of the most striking to me is the calculation of the CPI.
Take the example of Spain, whose CPI in 2007 was 4.2%, which should mean that average prices rose by 4.2% but it is clear that a TV-for example, do not shop every week or even every year But the milk (which went up 31%) is almost daily, or the pan (+14%) and fuels (+16.2%). Some say that the perception of these costs-to-be everyday makes us believe that inflation is higher than it is but I think that is the weighting system which is not fair.
How is it possible that if housing prices went up by 30% annual inflation was only 3% if half of the household budget goes to pay the house itself? Let us go further: In the mid-20, share prices in the U.S. grew an average of 3.5 times in five years, but the prices of consumer goods did not vary significantly. Should we conclude that there was no inflation? Why? Why exclude the rates of inflation, for no reason, financial assets? If low interest rates we had in Spain in recent years had flow, rather than mortgage credit, to consumer credit, the CPI would have been fired (instead of housing prices) and it would have suffered Official inflation.
The current base weights of 2001 and are adjusted each year minimally. The latest data available are these:
| Groups | CPI base 2001
Weights 2002 | CPI base 2001
Weights 2003 | CPI base 2001
Weights 2004-2005 | CPI base 2001
Weights 2006 |
| 01. Food and soft drinks | 21.86 | 21.93 | 22.60 | 22.28 |
| 02. Alcoholic drinks and snuff | 3.22 | 3.18 | 3.17 | 3.07 |
| 03. Clothing and footwear | 9.93 | 9.90 | 9.73 | 9.25 |
| 04. Housing | 11.03 | 10.68 | 10.69 | 10.71 |
| | | | |
| 05. Tableware | 6.36 | 6.41 | 6.41 | 6.17 |
| 06. Medicine | 2.81 | 2.75 | 2.68 | 2.72 |
| 07. Shipping | 15.58 | 15.32 | 14.40 | 14.91 |
| 08. Communications | 2.57 | 2.73 | 2.99 | 3.28 |
| | | | |
| 09. Leisure and culture | 6.73 | 6.83 | 6.76 | 6.78 |
| 10. Teaching | 1.74 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.68 |
| 11. Hotels, cafes and restaurants | 11.27 | 11.18 | 11.23 | 11.45 |
| 12. Other goods and services | 6.91 | 7.39 | 7.39 | 7.72 |
| | | | |
| TOTAL | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
With these data you can see that inflation affects the poorest who are based consumption especially in the first paragraph.
Now that every reader will see if this table is in line with their usual costs and check that this calculation very similar in all the countries around us, is very subjective ... Of course, while we believe the data and return to the issue of confidence - Everything will be fine and accept that our salaries and pensions go up each year, the official CPI and so we think that we do not lose purchasing power.
At this official website you can calculate the CPI has risen far from the official dates (data from 1961):
PD - Still others are doing worse, look at the figures of the country most inflationary in the world:
Summary: press
Droblo written by the November 13, 2008 with 428 comments
Read more articles on Euribor.
One of the greatest unsolved mysteries of criminology English was the identity of the famous Jack The Ripper, and that among the suspects we find members of the British royal family, the doctor of Queen Victoria, a young lawyer, a businessman Liverpool, a Jew and a psychotic impressionist painter.
Fortunately, 6 years ago the writer of mystery novels by Patricia Cornwell, did not have anything else to do and gave to invest $ 4 million to reach the conclusion that the notorious murderer was Walter Richard Sickert, 28, a prestigious painter of the time.
Patricia, had the patience to buy up to 30 paintings of the artist and analyze them in search of traces of DNA but is not that painting is a good preservative. However, the writer did not give up and finally after much searching, found him in a letter from his wife (you know, never utilicéis language for hitting an envelope) that matched the genetic material of the murderer.
Without doubt, Jack was a guy who liked to go to parties and blog we have here in our professional Ripper, whose victim today, is the mortgage. So I switch to the article written by Oriol.
Today I wish to comment on how the shares of a mortgage to take a little awareness of the pros and cons of the government's proposal to help the unemployed, postponing for two years for 50% of the share mortgage.
The mortgage is a repayment of capital. Each payment is decomposed in a part of a separate interest and repayment of the nominal. We must be clear that each share will be paid interest on which is due during the last period. Nor on what is paid this month, not on the original debt. The structure of the payments may have several forms, but I will focus on two, the simplest and most common, and this will put an example with the following information:
Capital: 180,000 €
Fees: 360 (30)
Interest: 5% (we assume fixed interest, because it is conceptually the same)
Monthly interest: 0.416667%
1 .- Amortization of capital
This system is not used regularly but is the most simple and will help us see clearly how it accrues interest. In this case, the party repaid at each share is constant, so the duty less and less money, every time there is less interest burden and the share is decreasing.
In the period "0" give us the money, so there are outstanding 180,000 €.
In the period "1" we pay the first installment. The amortized in the share capital is € 500 (180.000/360) and interest are due to have cost € 180,000 over a period (one month in our case), with an annual rate of 5% (which would be the monthly 0.41667%. Interest is then 750 € (180,000 x 0.0041667). After paying the first fee of 1250 € (500 +750 = capital + interest) I have € 179,500 to the bank, so that the interests of the following share were calculated on this new amount of debt. 747.92 (slightly less than before because I have less), then the fee is € 1247.92 in (capital + interest) and so on. (See table)
Observe that in recent assessments, the interest is very low, as they are, for example in the past, due to be € 500 a month. The shares were also lower for the same reason.
2 .- quota steady or French system.
(more ...)
Written by Oriol Carlos and the November 10, 2008 with 271 comments
Read more articles on Euribor.
An ancient legend has it Sheram, the Indian prince, was so astonished when they learned the game of chess, who wanted to reward generously Sessa, the inventor of that entertainment. He said: "Ask me anything you want." Sessa replied: "Sovereign, which sends me a grain of wheat delivered by the first section of the board, two for second, four for third, eight in the fourth, and so on until the box 64".
The prince could not please, because the result of that operation S = 1 + 2 + 4 + + 2 ... 63 is about 18 trillion grains. To get that would sow the entire Earth 65 times.
Sometimes I think that some banks have been passed as the prince's story, which first promised the money and then we have estimated and that is not what they had or had human form that he had.
In February 2006 there was a political controversy in the United States following the purchase of the management of six major ports by a Dubai state-owned. The President Bush hailed the operation but the Congress, arguing national security, managed to go delaying the agreement until finally a U.S. company took over the contract. Many Americans were afraid that Dubai-ally regarded by the government but in Muslim-majority manage something as important as the safety of the major seaports of the country.
However, in the financial world, the main U.S. lead months and months looking for money regardless of their origin. The liquidity crisis of confidence and has given back to the tortilla and not know what Americans think of walking but no executives do not disclose financial problems to the savings (and therefore also the management of pensions in a country where they are mostly private), the decision to grant credits and direction of investment by major banks in the world (in the list of those who have received money from Asia are also the Swiss UBS and Britain's Barclays) are largely mediated by governments that are dictatorships (such as UAE and Kuwait or China where there are elections but women could not vote), representing a population largely anti-Western and whose geostrategic interests (such as Chinese) are conflicting with the USA interests.
To top the liquidity available in the U.S. for equities (in the fixed income process is not well) according to official figures has been largely designed by fund managers to buy outside the country:
In the first eight months investors Americans took 68 bn. $ Of equity funds, of which 51.8 bn. were funds that invested in U.S. stock market. A year ago was much worse: entries from 81 bn. $ In equity funds with sales of 16.4 bn. funds that invested in U.S. stock market.
That is, in 2007 bought a large amount of money outside the U.S. and made money out of the bag USA. It could have been by $ distrust toward a thought (that was correct until very recently) of higher returns on assets in yen and € but it is symptomatic: USA managers draw money from the American equities even uptrend and now begging for money Arabic and Chinese.
Should not because the U.S. authorities in their efforts to monitor these flows interventionist? And investors should not arise in Asia that might not be best to buy where there sell? And the big question: Will there be enough money in the world to address this or as the story will have to wait 65 crops?
PS: And since today is a day in which as noted is consummated a change in the chairmanship USA and we're talking about miscalculations might be interesting to recall the cost of the Iraq intervention that the Nobel JOSEPH E. STIGLITZ estimated in March this year and $ 3 trillion according to some voices that should already be in the 4 billion. Money which, remember, has been thrown sunk by as many taxes they pay to state that some companies have won contracts in Iraq, will not arrive or 10% of that figure. Who says that the reason for all the depth of this crisis can not be in this cost themselves when U.S. authorities argue that less than 1 trillion will fix the financial crisis?
And to complete the usual summary of the press in which we are all aware of as he lay on the economy Obama's victory:
Written by Droblo on November 5, 2008 with 259 comments
Read more articles on Euribor.
Personal comment .-
Last Friday, shares of ING in Amsterdam stock market suffered strong selling pressure (at the close lost 27%) and rumoreaba were urgently in need of capital. The bank's management held a press conference to give figures for the financial soundness of the institution. Over the weekend the Dutch state has injected 10 billion € in the bank. This time no one can accuse the situation of the bank to a massive withdrawal of deposits since the Dutch state had guaranteed all loans until 2009 and, in fact, the rumor did not say that ING suspend payments but that it would expand capital and the Netherlands. So, what was said at the press conference on Friday was false. Once again, as he lied with Bear Stearns, Fortis or Northern Rock. In all countries the same process: the trend is more reliable stock of a bank can assert that what the authorities. And no one takes responsibility for the lies to shareholders. ¿Conclusion? At the moment there is confidence in the statements that assume the mismanagement of private banking but do Confidence in the financial system? What would be weird having it (the text of the press):
"The measure was taken just ten days after the same ING took control of the assets of the failed bank islándico Kaupthing. At that time, a communique from the bank said it did from a position of strength because it had more than $ 1.8 trillion in assets and 85 million customers around the world. "
And the British Barclays state offered him money after assuming the risk of buying the spoils of Lehman and I am sure if the Santander would like the Spanish state would give money with which to finance their adventures in high-risk British and American ...
Another topic, it appears that Spain wants Arab countries to buy state debt, up there perfect, but coincides in time with the purchase of the Spanish state debt from the banks. Ie Spain with its own guarantee fund picks, with that money buy what they do not sell their banks, trusts that these banks use the money to increase the credit and that those who capture the credit it back to the state via taxes ... I know that but as I said, Why do so many middlemen? If Spain is debt, which is to inject money into society and not to those banks which can not be compelled to increase the credit. Lower taxes or subsidies for mortgages and loans before recapitalize banks would be a lot more social and above all faster to end the crisis. Instead, we still do not return to those who were negative ...
As to bag it is clear that we have entered a range that is below a support at least a year and are now above the 10 thousand of Ibex (and the Dow again be paired), 5000's Dax or 1000 of SP500, breaking that level would accelerate the movement in the short (as we have seen this Thursday when the Ibex lost its previous annual minimum) without necessarily changing the trend in the medium term, which remains bearish aplastantemente. As it is not all bag, I think it is noteworthy that gold, rather than value refuge from the crisis, is another asset that is at minimum a year. And the explanation, apart from the rising and falling $ crude, which usually follows, is that gold has traditionally been the refuge against inflation and recession may now be discounted prices that seem been removed as a problem. This is Scramble to many investors and funds who once were compensated for losses in equities with earnings of metals, oil or food ... and even within the equities exchanges between emerging and non emerging. This year the losses are accumulated in a variety of products.
Finally, it was assumed that the October 29 the FED will cut rates and that the ECB will make the Nov. 6. The bearish trend continues and with it the Euribor. Hopefully crude oil continue to support the lowering of inflation although I must admit last week I was too optimistic about the price of petrol and I am confused by looking at graphics fiarme USA and a poor source of the Internet for transforming a gallon in his corresponding liters. And to top it all, the $ is going against us. And it's really odd that just before the elections the U.S. $, despite the huge deficit and its rates so low, is in the $ maximum of two years.
(more ...)
Written by Droblo on October 24, 2008 with 438 reviews
Read more articles on Euribor.
In November will be a year of historic peaks of the American and Spanish stock exchange. The anniversary coincides with a stock exchange and financial crisis that has led many states to use public money to try to resolve the situation. Right in between those dates to April 2007 - came news that seems forgotten today: The G7 posed an ultimatum to the banking system by which gave them 100 days to emerge all of their losses. That same G7 decided that these days, along with other economic institutions and policies, go to the aid of those same banks that ignored the ultimatum.
They say that it was necessary, it is possible, but these banks are still the same executives and managers leading a policy so dire that have needed enormous amounts of public money to survive. How is it possible to be a blank check to solve this to those who badly managed and also ignored the warnings?
Looking back a few links:
This could be very long but is easily summarized: The FED lowered rates in the late summer of 2007 thereby delaying the solution to the crisis and the stock exchanges in November (both the SP500 as the Ibex) touched historic highs, in a movement of blindness total on economic reality. Falls from January to be blamed "mad trader" and from June to a storm of summer ... and have needed the collapse of these days to finally act together.
Hopefully it is true that it is not too late but I think it took too much. And of course what we consider unacceptable is not rolling heads. Many people have been complicit and active-passive-from the current crisis, but one who spent 120% of their income on credit and relied on an expectation wrong in their meat is suffering the consequences. And many innocent, too. The companies closed or poorly managed change their management teams, but what happens to the treasurers of banks, managers of pension funds, what happens to the political system, what happens with the ratings agencies, and the recommendations of Analysts?
In April this year was very famous video of the CNBC in which he interviewed Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenhaimer, and suddenly asked about the survival of Lehman and she, logically thought that would eventually break, spent several seconds without knowing what say, if hesitating between telling the truth or not cause any "mistrust" was his famous "mmm". She and her bank has been among the few who have months and months recommending selling in banks and announcing that they rebajarían dividend and capital increase, something that managers of these banks refused and returned to deny. Now the "totem" is to be given confidence, that means not telling the truth? Or stay with the comment made by the same dates one of the most prestigious analysts Spaniards among Internet users: "I recommend buying the stock exchange because years ending in 8 when in January he has behaved badly, they tend to go up very strongly about everything from the first quarter, so a year that ends in 8, which in January has behaved very badly, it is very likely to rise by 30% since the minimum in the first quarter. "
But this is anecdotal when compared to what happens to the head: Why is it that has not resigned after Paulson stressed many times the financial strength of Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae among others? And Bernanke, how was not affected by its mismanagement of the crisis? Where are the resignations among ratings agencies that ensured the financial strength of many entities fall? Why do governments have not demanded purges of personnel responsible for the banks which injected capital? ¿Cómo es posible que sigan los mismos en AIG y además lo celebren derrochando?
No puede ser que el ciudadano de a pie que se ha visto afectado por una crisis que apenas entiende sea el único que sufra las consecuencias y se use el dinero de sus impuestos para que los que nos han llevado a la crisis y todos sus cómplices sigan en sus poltronas. ¿Tiene que recuperarse la confianza? Cierto, pero para ello no hay nada mejor que sinceridad y responsabilidad. Que nos digan la verdad de una vez y que no comprometamos los ingresos del estado en unos gestores que nos han llevado a esto, que no lo supieron prever ni arreglar. Sin exigir responsabilidades monetarias, políticas e incluso penales si llega el caso, considero que no se resolverá la falta de confianza en el sistema.
Escrito por Droblo el 23 de Octubre de 2008 con 240 comentarios
Lee más artículos sobre Euribor .
« Artículos más antiguos
No hay artículos más nuevos
(4.75 sobre 5) 