What bad luck!

I recall with a bit of nostalgia in those days that the economy was managing only 500 pesetas a week that I gave my parents to spend the week. I gave the Friday, and the first thing we did was go to the candy store, I spent 100 pesetas in sweets and came home to comérmelas while he saw the "Farce" Alfonso Arus. One of the most brilliant fakes, made by the presenter, was that of Jose Velez (PEPE GAFE), with those giant yellow glasses. Singer home to Canario attached to it the power to gafar everything that was played caricatured as the king of gafe week after week. It is said in the audiovisual world that the presence of Jose Velez was set at any harbinger of all kinds of bugs.

In real life, the lot must be cultivated, if acted responsibly and planning, probably before a problem, leaving succeed and people will say that I have had luck Menuda, but without seeing the fate that often gives a boost to those who have cultivated to reach the ground. Similarly, bad luck can also be removed from our lives using our head a little.

Let's see the example of those who were disappointed because they are going to review the latest Euribor high before falling these days, which is expected to remain a good season.

Flat funded at 100% of the valuation that matches your purchase price, he or the buyer / en had saved for expenses of deeds, taxes, etc ...

Data calculation:

Price floor 240,000 €
Initial capital funding: € 240,000
Term: 30 years
Differential: 0.75%
Signed: November 1, 2003
Last Euribor published in BOE (Oct. 20) 2258% (average September)

Successive revisions:

September	Euribor
2003	2.258
2004	2.377
2005	2.220
2006	3.715
2007	4.725
2008	5.384

Shares after each review.

Date		Euribor	Quota
December	2003	2.258%	1007.62
December	2004	2.377%	1022.21
December	2005	2.220%	1003.54
December	2006	3.715%	1182.12
December	2007	4.725%	1306.29
December	2008	5.384%	1387.61

It is clear that the rise in rates has increased the quotas mortgage by almost 40% in 5 years, but we must accept it because that is what we have variable rates, but now that it appears that the Euribor curve starts to fall and despite this, will continue to pay the Euribor September (5384%) when a Dec. 1 will be below 4.30%, the subject can take two positions:

1 .- Putting a giant yellow glasses and say "THAT BAD LUCK!"

2 .- To take in the matter and espabilarse. If we want to implement the November Euribor there to sign a new mortgage between December 21 and January 20, and that we go.

It is said that today the banks do not want to know anything about mortgages, and this is not true, the banks want to know anything about bad mortgages (over 70% of the current valuation, shares representing% higher than 35%, etc ...). What we want is good mortgages, and mortgages are killed for stealing good competition. A few days ago, I received an e-mail the following offer: (Do not put the entity because they do not pay for it, but that was more than one bank is a game of "good")
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Oriolrc written by the November 24, 2008 with 321 reviews
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The week in the markets (6-13 Nov)

Personal comment.

On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.

The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?

I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%

This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:

In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.

And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.

Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)

Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
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Real CPI

Since he is no longer the "gold standard" and a ticket does not represent anything physical but simply faith in its issuer has formalized the old adage that says that the basis of the economy is confidence. As long as there is confidence the economy may go well although there are points "dark". Why? Because if consumers and businesses and banks believe in a good future, spend, invest and lend and this will generate well-paid jobs so the virtuous circle will continue to operate and will continue to spend, invest and banks to finance projects future.

For that confidence is not lost speeches by political and economic decision usually mostly reassuring because if you lose falling economic growth and are entering a vicious circle: consumers do not spend, businesses earn less and reduce their investment and the banks get the credit because bad debt increases. And the order may be reversed as is happening with the current crisis: the banks reduce credit before the outbreak of the housing bubble and late payment by bad investments, get the credit to businesses and consumers, scared by all this, spending less and therefore less to buy companies that reduce their profits and, ultimately, generate unemployment. Besides the problem in society that this generates, it is clear that if unemployment rises and companies and banks earn less income are also lower because of the administration are charged less tax at a time that should increase social spending.

All this is very basic, nothing original but there is one factor that can undermine the confidence that usually goes unnoticed: the veracity of official data. And because they are not certain or not, but by the manner of calculating them. And it would take pages to explain how such data in the USA is distorted industrial orders each month with the orders of governmental machinery of war or the handling of the Department of Labor with the monthly employment data ... there are many examples. However, one of the most striking to me is the calculation of the CPI.

Take the example of Spain, whose CPI in 2007 was 4.2%, which should mean that average prices rose by 4.2% but it is clear that a TV-for example, do not shop every week or even every year But the milk (which went up 31%) is almost daily, or the pan (+14%) and fuels (+16.2%). Some say that the perception of these costs-to-be everyday makes us believe that inflation is higher than it is but I think that is the weighting system which is not fair.

How is it possible that if housing prices went up by 30% annual inflation was only 3% if half of the household budget goes to pay the house itself? Let us go further: In the mid-20, share prices in the U.S. grew an average of 3.5 times in five years, but the prices of consumer goods did not vary significantly. Should we conclude that there was no inflation? Why? Why exclude the rates of inflation, for no reason, financial assets? If low interest rates we had in Spain in recent years had flow, rather than mortgage credit, to consumer credit, the CPI would have been fired (instead of housing prices) and it would have suffered Official inflation.

The current base weights of 2001 and are adjusted each year minimally. The latest data available are these:

With these data you can see that inflation affects the poorest who are based consumption especially in the first paragraph.

Now that every reader will see if this table is in line with their usual costs and check that this calculation very similar in all the countries around us, is very subjective ... Of course, while we believe the data and return to the issue of confidence - Everything will be fine and accept that our salaries and pensions go up each year, the official CPI and so we think that we do not lose purchasing power.

At this official website you can calculate the CPI has risen far from the official dates (data from 1961):

PD - Still others are doing worse, look at the figures of the country most inflationary in the world:

Summary: press

• The German economy entered into recession after contracting 0.5%
• U.S. will not buy more active "toxic" but will invest in banking capital
• BBVA forecasts: the rates drop to 1.5% and the Euribor will be at 2.5%
• Up to 25,000 shops miss the closing this year
• The interbank still does not work: only cross transactions a day
• Santander began the largest capital increase in cash from Spain
• The government shuffled back onto the light in January
• The crisis that Spaniards will spend up to 11% less this Christmas

Droblo written by the November 13, 2008 with 428 comments
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Gutting the mortgage.

One of the greatest unsolved mysteries of criminology English was the identity of the famous Jack The Ripper, and that among the suspects we find members of the British royal family, the doctor of Queen Victoria, a young lawyer, a businessman Liverpool, a Jew and a psychotic impressionist painter.

Fortunately, 6 years ago the writer of mystery novels by Patricia Cornwell, did not have anything else to do and gave to invest $ 4 million to reach the conclusion that the notorious murderer was Walter Richard Sickert, 28, a prestigious painter of the time.

Patricia, had the patience to buy up to 30 paintings of the artist and analyze them in search of traces of DNA but is not that painting is a good preservative. However, the writer did not give up and finally after much searching, found him in a letter from his wife (you know, never utilicéis language for hitting an envelope) that matched the genetic material of the murderer.

Without doubt, Jack was a guy who liked to go to parties and blog we have here in our professional Ripper, whose victim today, is the mortgage. So I switch to the article written by Oriol.

Today I wish to comment on how the shares of a mortgage to take a little awareness of the pros and cons of the government's proposal to help the unemployed, postponing for two years for 50% of the share mortgage.

The mortgage is a repayment of capital. Each payment is decomposed in a part of a separate interest and repayment of the nominal. We must be clear that each share will be paid interest on which is due during the last period. Nor on what is paid this month, not on the original debt. The structure of the payments may have several forms, but I will focus on two, the simplest and most common, and this will put an example with the following information:

Capital: 180,000 €
Fees: 360 (30)
Interest: 5% (we assume fixed interest, because it is conceptually the same)
Monthly interest: 0.416667%

1 .- Amortization of capital

This system is not used regularly but is the most simple and will help us see clearly how it accrues interest. In this case, the party repaid at each share is constant, so the duty less and less money, every time there is less interest burden and the share is decreasing.

In the period "0" give us the money, so there are outstanding 180,000 €.

In the period "1" we pay the first installment. The amortized in the share capital is € 500 (180.000/360) and interest are due to have cost € 180,000 over a period (one month in our case), with an annual rate of 5% (which would be the monthly 0.41667%. Interest is then 750 € (180,000 x 0.0041667). After paying the first fee of 1250 € (500 +750 = capital + interest) I have € 179,500 to the bank, so that the interests of the following share were calculated on this new amount of debt. 747.92 (slightly less than before because I have less), then the fee is € 1247.92 in (capital + interest) and so on. (See table)

Observe that in recent assessments, the interest is very low, as they are, for example in the past, due to be € 500 a month. The shares were also lower for the same reason.

2 .- quota steady or French system.

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Written by Oriol Carlos and the November 10, 2008 with 276 comments
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Commentary and video of the week.

Like every Saturday recovered the comment voted most of the week and gift video (in 2 parts) with the last appearance of Leopold Abbey in the dog program.

# 20, hipotecaohastalamedula

November 4, 2008, at 9:53.

Telecinco today came out in a story about how 3 girls Muslim felt "discriminated against" because when they go to look for work said that her veil was a barrier. Telecinco used words such as harassment, discrimination, racism, etc ...

The most flagrant of a pizzeria that it was explained that the uniform and hat and polo ALL should take, something that the girl did not understand.

And this makes the TV news, how many presenters with Turban has Telecinco? I think that the news program forced them to go with a tie, not too eye-catching styling and good image. And they criticize an employee of a pizzeria by saying that not hire someone with a veil, forgiveness, said that if it hired, but had to remove it. To me, that I do not feel discrimination, I think equality, conditions, equal for all.

I ask those girls, what would happen if I go to their country with my wife, and she goes with miniskirt, cleavage and gives us by besarnos in a public park, surely I cut out the language, she stoning and what they ASI applaud because their religion is. Well girls, this is our country, being an immigrant does not have to deny rights, but neither has to granting privileges.

I'm sick of seeing fights at school because there are parents who want to send their girls to burka. They came here looking for progress, because that is progress (which I doubt very much that we are an example of this), not to discriminate against women is progress, give the same rights is progress. If you like, well, if not, do not try to change a country because their ideals are not yours. That already knew before, but it seems that everyone here can mourn and all are made case.

Now tachadme of racist, xenophobic, what you want, but seeing how things are, many migrants will, but we know that if we go to Thailand, not play with drugs. Here you're caught with "Mary" and you nailed 30 Euros, there you're caught with "Mary" and will be 3 years in prison. We know and we accept it if we have to go do not try and change.

Ah! Telecinco already!, why not recruited them to present the news? not enact equal? It is very easy to criticize the other and accusing someone of not doing so I would not do.

Well, pataleta Tuesday, and dispatched me comfortable ...

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Written by Carlos Lopez on Nov. 8, 2008 with 141 comments
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The week in the markets (31 Oct - 6Nov)

Personal comment.

After the miracle that was expected (and confirmed) this week, which is called a black and Hussein Obama becomes president of the USA (another miracle is that she does), I received news of aid from our government the mortgage and I thought if there were any other one this week and the government would have done if we are from here when called for direct aid to the people. But I am afraid that has not happened: the government first decided to deny the crisis and support the banking industry after a series of measures hardly justifiable to the alleged strength of our financial sector. Now they have submitted results boxes and banks and profits have continued to be astronomical (if they are not means that aid has not been a change of transparency, still missing that no entity in Spain this loss when there are solutions in other countries more solid than ours) decide to "help" directly to individual mortgaged helping them go through this slump. But once again become a more aid for banks to the public. I think in the forum has already been felt all the opinions on this subject and I must also say that very acutely so I just want to emphasize again that the prevailing idea is something like: "We are in the worst of the crisis, guaranteed deposits until 2010 and helped the mortgaged two years and then with the revival that will fix everything is "What will happen if those unemployed after a two-year moratorium can not find work? For this reason there is no response.

Of course it is desirable that all this is a bad streak but most cyclical of time this seems far removed from reality. The numbers continue to decline week to week and what is valued as improvement may simply be adjustments after a very sharp. Fixed in this original graphic where we can see how it appears the trend for banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve is changing, but if we compare with other periods in which there is not even needed to resort to the EDF, it is easy to appreciate the level of banking crisis of the USA and alejadísimo that this is settled:

I do not see any signal that enables believe that this crisis will last only a few months. E insist not to confuse the bag (which may well bounce for a few weeks as he was bouncing a few days) with the real economy. The macro data are disastrous, unreservedly and hope that the lowering of rates might change, whether justified or not-only be realized within several months, and that if this drives the rebate credit. If not, only reduce the benefits of saving without encouraging the activity to the investor. And the worst thing is that the states are running out of room for maneuver as in Spain itself has acknowledged Solbes (http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Solbes/dice/habra/recursos/afrontar/crisis/elpepueco / 20081105elpepieco_6/Tes)

Turning to the bag, the idea of "This is a pothole, a historic opportunity to buy, but months back in the upward path" is being installed. And yet this week (except in Europe, from Thursday to Thursday-closed flat, with some better rates and other worse) has come to a negative balance. And that if we look at the percentage rise since we have been minimal, is notable because the descent was very sharp. And was the upward trend in November and the maximum rise (Tuesday) after a day of low volatility (Monday). But neither with the help of central banks has been with the resistance led by commenting two weeks ago and is still stuck in a dangerous area. The Dax rose well above 5000 but has been unable to keep them in the SP and the arrival in 1000 has been the perfect excuse to very aggressive sales. The Dow and the Ibex nor have approached the 10 mil ...

The fear is still there as we saw on Wednesday because although statistically markets operate best on the day following the victory of a Republican than a Democrat the truth is that it should have been positive that the forecasts were met and there were no surprises, however these As of last week to buy the rumor and sell the news is becoming a habit and this caused a deep bearish movement. As I commented last week, while there are rises in quiet but there are a lot of threat falls hurry to sell. And he has returned to fulfill. However, I detect many voices that speak of buying in the fall of the year-end rally is possible .... I remain neutral and to envy to keep clear at these levels because I keep seeing danger to both sides. Today it is known the figure of unemployed last month and is feared to be disastrous, most of -200 thousand. As a curious statistic you remember that it was not a bad figure since March 2003, just the month in which he died the previous bearish trend and started the bull that ended in the fall of 2007.

And with regard to the Euribor, a point: that is truly novel now has one year deposits in financial institutions and which are due before 2010 and thus are guaranteed by the state, giving a return similar to the cost of a mortgage. It seems to me that an abnormality was corrected when 2009 arrives and there is much need for liquidity in the face of squaring balance at the end of the year. The Euribor rate comparing to a year with the intervention to 14 days of the ECB should better compare the returns offered by your bank for a year and what you pay for mortgages at that same bank and verify that the differential is not so much . Not to defend the banks with this, just describe a reality, the battle to capture a liability is so great that the differential between what it receives a customer with money and what they should pay that money for a mortgage is minimal. One consolation: yesterday in U.S. rates were at 1% and libor to 12 months to 2.84 (a 184% more), here had to 3.25 and the Euribor to 12 months to 4.70 (a 44.62% increase). But much remains could be even worse ...

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Written by Droblo on November 7, 2008 with 297 comments
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