Personal comment.
Not many days ago, with the Ibex in 9500, someone at the forum said it would be good if you buy Ibex fell to 9000 and I replied that if he lost the 9000 which would have to do is sell and if they rose from 10 thousand to buy. I know it's difficult, we all have in their heads the idea of buying the cheaper price but it's just that we will know whether it is cheaper to bull past. Appeared to 9 santander cheap, and a plum 8, and 7 gift ... and this week we have seen below 5. Buying in bearish trend is very dangerous and to go for a rebound, we must let the action go without being within us and only if it breaks resistance, then pointed to that movement. Buy and sell when it goes up when low and not vice versa. I know it is very difficult but because this week we talked about positive things to learn from all this negativity, if we learn that in this year unlucky for equities, we draw that lesson for life. And it is applicable to all investments.
But I keep reading newspaper articles talking about values "safe" (Saturday at 5 Days for example recommended 5-specific values that have fallen hard this week, calling it "great values to the test of storms"), the other day Tele 5 "My portfolio investment" I heard something like that when there are bassists who use them to buy cheap values (sic) in the long term to leave to our children so they can sell them with much profit would think ... that maybe many of those who bought shares of Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, Fannie Mae ... or those who bought at 11 euros and SAN doubled to 9 to leave the average at 10. No one who buys it does not believe that the price is cheaper, more missing. There seems to be some media interest in which people do exactly what you should not do it without investing a maximum of losses. If that had there been no one-stop or individuals or funds or banks, which would be lost this year are losing. And there is no point talking about the dividend yield when we talk about losses of 50%, recently I read an article in February recommending buy for that reason ... then you sacrificed your cares little cash dividend. I understand that political correctness is to tell the users of business-to-be shareholders tend not to carry their losses ... but political correctness does not serve as a tool of investment. Let us not forget that the company (Berkshire Hathaway) of the most prestigious world-investor Warren Buffet-accumulated in the years leading to a loss of over 40% and he still defends his philosophy when he sees an opportunity to buy and hold even decades, but how many we have so much capital to not worry about our investments during years of viewing them falling at this rate?
On the other hand, I still insist that everything points-in-a real economy that the worst is yet to come. This is evidenced by this graph of the profits of companies that comprise the SP500: they have fallen nearly 50% in the past 14 months but is still above the boom times of the past, even adjusting for inflation. This gives reason to believe that this crisis is so deep because we have been the biggest bubble in history
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Droblo written by the November 21, 2008 with 322 reviews
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Personal comment.
On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.
Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)
Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
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The other day I read that the American figure that the state is being spent on trying to resolve the financial crisis is already 2.7 billion dollars, and that in a country that already, even before all this and much needed money. He also knew the number of jobs: 524 thousand new unemployed in two months. And I began to search for information on the actual state of U.S. finances. Let a couple of numbers and put all the zeros, that more than a trillion translates as billions and trillions when we lees and I had to document only on American websites:
- A day on November 11 at 09.14, the debt is U.S. $ 10.635.794.969.002, an amount that is increasing second to second, and in fact there is a ticking clock that will (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki / National_Debt_Clock) and discussed here not long ago that going from 9 billion to 10 had to fix it. Currently 500.000.000.000 is increasing each month since October, a figure of growth that is expected to be sharply reduced because it is what they grew on average annually since 2003. In September the U.S. government expanded, very appropriately, the limit of indebtedness from 10.6 trillion to 11.3 but everything points that will run short in 2009
- The estimated GDP-American 2007 is 13,800,000,000,000, then the current debt is around 75% of GDP and it seems to get worse closer to 90% only by increasing the debt if we have to account that GDP may actually be reduced if there is recession, this could be even worse. They are not the all-time highs as can be seen in figure but let's remember that it was exceeded 100% due to World War II:
However, many countries are worse off and for years (from among the "big" Japan is close to 200%, in Europe and Italy, Belgium and Greece around 100%) the big problem is that this is only the debt State that is a fraction of the total debt of banks, families and American companies estimate is about 50,000,000,000,000, almost 5 times more than the public and more than 3 times the entire GDP. In Spain, where we have this sense of indebtedness total private debt is double the GDP. (More ...)
Droblo written by the November 11, 2008 with 243 comments
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Personal comment.
After the miracle that was expected (and confirmed) this week, which is called a black and Hussein Obama becomes president of the USA (another miracle is that she does), I received news of aid from our government the mortgage and I thought if there were any other one this week and the government would have done if we are from here when called for direct aid to the people. But I am afraid that has not happened: the government first decided to deny the crisis and support the banking industry after a series of measures hardly justifiable to the alleged strength of our financial sector. Now they have submitted results boxes and banks and profits have continued to be astronomical (if they are not means that aid has not been a change of transparency, still missing that no entity in Spain this loss when there are solutions in other countries more solid than ours) decide to "help" directly to individual mortgaged helping them go through this slump. But once again become a more aid for banks to the public. I think in the forum has already been felt all the opinions on this subject and I must also say that very acutely so I just want to emphasize again that the prevailing idea is something like: "We are in the worst of the crisis, guaranteed deposits until 2010 and helped the mortgaged two years and then with the revival that will fix everything is "What will happen if those unemployed after a two-year moratorium can not find work? For this reason there is no response.
Of course it is desirable that all this is a bad streak but most cyclical of time this seems far removed from reality. The numbers continue to decline week to week and what is valued as improvement may simply be adjustments after a very sharp. Fixed in this original graphic where we can see how it appears the trend for banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve is changing, but if we compare with other periods in which there is not even needed to resort to the EDF, it is easy to appreciate the level of banking crisis of the USA and alejadísimo that this is settled:
I do not see any signal that enables believe that this crisis will last only a few months. E insist not to confuse the bag (which may well bounce for a few weeks as he was bouncing a few days) with the real economy. The macro data are disastrous, unreservedly and hope that the lowering of rates might change, whether justified or not-only be realized within several months, and that if this drives the rebate credit. If not, only reduce the benefits of saving without encouraging the activity to the investor. And the worst thing is that the states are running out of room for maneuver as in Spain itself has acknowledged Solbes (http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Solbes/dice/habra/recursos/afrontar/crisis/elpepueco / 20081105elpepieco_6/Tes)
Turning to the bag, the idea of "This is a pothole, a historic opportunity to buy, but months back in the upward path" is being installed. And yet this week (except in Europe, from Thursday to Thursday-closed flat, with some better rates and other worse) has come to a negative balance. And that if we look at the percentage rise since we have been minimal, is notable because the descent was very sharp. And was the upward trend in November and the maximum rise (Tuesday) after a day of low volatility (Monday). But neither with the help of central banks has been with the resistance led by commenting two weeks ago and is still stuck in a dangerous area. The Dax rose well above 5000 but has been unable to keep them in the SP and the arrival in 1000 has been the perfect excuse to very aggressive sales. The Dow and the Ibex nor have approached the 10 mil ...
The fear is still there as we saw on Wednesday because although statistically markets operate best on the day following the victory of a Republican than a Democrat the truth is that it should have been positive that the forecasts were met and there were no surprises, however these As of last week to buy the rumor and sell the news is becoming a habit and this caused a deep bearish movement. As I commented last week, while there are rises in quiet but there are a lot of threat falls hurry to sell. And he has returned to fulfill. However, I detect many voices that speak of buying in the fall of the year-end rally is possible .... I remain neutral and to envy to keep clear at these levels because I keep seeing danger to both sides. Today it is known the figure of unemployed last month and is feared to be disastrous, most of -200 thousand. As a curious statistic you remember that it was not a bad figure since March 2003, just the month in which he died the previous bearish trend and started the bull that ended in the fall of 2007.
And with regard to the Euribor, a point: that is truly novel now has one year deposits in financial institutions and which are due before 2010 and thus are guaranteed by the state, giving a return similar to the cost of a mortgage. It seems to me that an abnormality was corrected when 2009 arrives and there is much need for liquidity in the face of squaring balance at the end of the year. The Euribor rate comparing to a year with the intervention to 14 days of the ECB should better compare the returns offered by your bank for a year and what you pay for mortgages at that same bank and verify that the differential is not so much . Not to defend the banks with this, just describe a reality, the battle to capture a liability is so great that the differential between what it receives a customer with money and what they should pay that money for a mortgage is minimal. One consolation: yesterday in U.S. rates were at 1% and libor to 12 months to 2.84 (a 184% more), here had to 3.25 and the Euribor to 12 months to 4.70 (a 44.62% increase). But much remains could be even worse ...
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Written by Droblo on November 7, 2008 with 296 reviews
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Personal comment
Sometimes it seems that markets have entered a dynamic so strange that even acting against what would be logical: OPEC lowers production and instead of rising, oil low, the stock market collapses and gold instead of serving Value refuge, also collapses, USA has the largest deficit in the world, which will be maintained for years, with a central bank that is assuming the risk millionaire asset that nobody wants and that its currency, the dollar reaches maximum years . I'm beginning to think that facing the end of the year and more than likely departure of money from investment funds what is happening is simply that all positions are rolled back in search of liquidity. And of course, as lower the percentage is more active and feedback movement. And also to push sales in other non-stock, hence, not hedges. But that same process also works the other way around because if the market rises there is less interest in selling, it's like the one that has a debt and has only one floor, according to the low price of the floor more quickly is worth before they sell it unless debt but if you have the floor suddenly rises in price no longer needs to sell it because you can get the liquidity it needs with the assurance that floor without the need to get rid of him. This causes a lot of volatility.
But why not just the irrationalities: Now the stock market likes that the crude will rise and depressed when low and the same with the €, unlike that for months, Cepsa (much smaller and lower profit at least 7 times) has come to worth more on the stock exchange that Repsol by the sharp drop of it, (this reminds me of when they arrived in Telepizza worth more than Domino's Pizza or Terra more than BBVA) and according to Bespoke 10% of companies that have submitted results in line with Expected been completed on the day of publication with an average drop of 1.80% (as if the results had been ill). However, the biggest example we know that Volkswagen had reached a EGY 90 when the Dax has a PER this year of less than 8 and Daimler has it at 3.7 and have even more value for capitalization that all companies producing cars of world together. Are we really learning something from all this if we continue to promote bubbles as dangerous as these?
Beyond these factors, there is a rational exercise we can make each of us self-polls. There are many securities that are in 2002 prices and are tempting us to make some investment but ask ourselves: Is the economy better or worse than in those years? And most importantly, our confidence in leaving the rut, Is now higher or lower than then? Then I remember that the biggest economic problem was the fear of terrorism and that it would start a war in Iraq ... now we still have more that all the problems we have been talking for months: credit crisis, high inflation, housing bubble and so on. and joined it in recent weeks: Stop worrying figures, emerging markets to the brink of collapse, public deficits to astronomical assumed by mismanagement of the banks and so on. I mean, what's the same bag goes up, that's something unpredictable at least for me, but since then it is clear that the real economy is not invited to optimism. Yet it must be stressed that in the USA have left two data consecutive home prices that give a respite to the bearish trend, at least in that sector and in this country ...
The summary of the week can be summarized in a nutshell: On Friday marked minimum annual all bags that I still except the Chinese and, curiously, the Dow Jones and SP500. On Monday, China, all European and Brazil signed the new minimum but not American. Tuesday marked the first bars minimal Japan and China but no more. However, if we take into account the future it that both the Dow Jones SP500 marked as the minimum of 5 years and a half but perhaps there were some concerns that they did not want to be in regular time mark. On Tuesday, with rumors of a sharp drop in rates in Japan, the USA had the second highest increase in history. On Wednesday, rose much Europe but not USA, which broke the increases in minutes from the descent of the EDF. And on Thursday, thanks mainly to Japan, continued to climb. ¿Conclusion? After so many vicissitudes week (Thursday to Thursday) has had a very positive (except on Ibex and China that ended flat to lower in recent days by 6% in total, all have had remarkable progress) and many believe has already passed the worse in October and has complied with its reputation for month of the crash but also from the soil ... I keep seeing that the resistance of speaking last week (1000's sp, 10 thousand of Ibex and the Dow, 5000's Dax) are still there and only have been overtaken, on Thursday for a few minutes, the Dax, who this week has behaved in plan rate banana republic by the theme of Volkswagen.
And just months and despite what has been disastrous and it has not observed any statistically negative-except for those who want to invest we can be confident that it will comply with these average data showing that November is the best month of year for the stock market since 1980:
However, against my usual, I will "get wet" a little more: to bet on a possible upward rally in November or even early January and be more secure is important to see what makes the bags on the first day of November . If you go up, does not mean anything special but if you fall, it is better to keep out of the bag because that means the funds are still undoing positions (the term that is becoming fashionable is "desapalancamiento") and not spend the cash to equities. So my advice is to wait until the end of Monday or Tuesday that the opening of comprobéis not dropped before they come to buy, if you decide to buy.
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Written by Droblo on October 31, 2008 with 247 comments
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The other day searching the net I could find an interesting article by a professor who uses episodes of the Simpsons to teach economics, so I have put on a plate to go on it little by little and we can give it turns on some basic economic concepts .
In the episode "The way in which we were" we are moved to the era in which Homer had hair and was in high school. By then, that Marge was trying to be established at him, which decided to join the same activities that it, including the debate team. The topic for discussion was "Determined: The speed limit is reduced to 80km / h". Homer, upon learning that reacts immediately shouting "This is ridiculous!. Save some lives, but millions will arrive late. " Without doubt, a little politically correct and that may not Saldías in a debate in which everyone would be focusing on the same subject (save lives) but shows a different view of both the problem and the solution.
Sometimes we tend to think that economics is an exact science and that if you like heat water to over 100 degrees it boils, lower rates and increase the consumption point. Unfortunately it is not as simple as the amount of side effects and long-term effects produced are as important as unpredictable. In some cases, the reactions are obvious and some of the side effects are predictable. This is what distinguishes a good economist from a bad one, the possibility of providing these invisible effects.
Yesterday the FED again lower rates and a fairly strong 1.5% to 1% which is placed in minimum not seen since June 2003. The short-term effects are predictable, falling dollar, rising stock markets and revival in consumption. At least this is what the manual says the economist, but all we ask. What are the side effects in the long term, which will produce the return to historically low levels of rates?. For many years, we praise the policy of Alan Greenspan as head of the EDF because it managed to get us out of a crisis (caused by the. Com and the attacks of 11S) as well as their speeches prepared, but now is in the spotlight many of which already seen in perspective it looks as if it had wanted to cure a cold with chemotherapy causing one of the biggest real estate bubbles and financial crises in history. On the other side of the pond, we have a guy named Trichet more cautious, as the case may have sinned by trying to cure the cold low with only juices, as the case has the advantage of being able to see a patient with the disease more advanced and well able to see whether the solutions implemented in the U.S. are working or not. It is always easier to do experiments, when the other has done before.
So to complete the famous phrase of Freeman Clarke said that "A politician is one who thinks of the next election, a statesman is one who thinks. in the next generation "could add further that a good economist is one who thinks so unpredictable. So, as things stand now, we need good statesmen and good economists.
And finally, the usual summary of the press:
Written by Carlos Lopez on Oct. 30, 2008 with 304 comments
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Thus closed.
- Dow 9,067.27 +891.50 +10.90%
- Nasdaq 1,649.47 +143.57 +9.53%
- S & P 500 940.41 +91.49 +10.78%
We will wait to see if the FED cuts rates by 1% which is what we have expected the markets and one of the reasons for this rise. Until then, I encourage you to read this article in the soap opera Volkswagen: The stock market madness: Volkswagen is worth as much as all the Ibex as well as the commentary of Droblo (fairly technical), which tomorrow will tell us an interesting article on the bag and November.
# 200, droblo
October 28, 2008, at 18:02.
To change the subject, an explanation (not mine, is a study of a large Spanish bank) of why the surrealist theme of Volkswagen:
Porch has announced that it has the 42.6% of common stock and an additional 31.5% options1 settled in cash. The banks that have sold these options should theoretically have covered their positions in derivatives by buying an equivalent amount in cash (ie one can assume that another 31.5% of Volks what have these banks). The local government of Lower Saxony has a 20.08%.
The rest up to 100%, about 6%, is what is left of Free Float bearing in mind that passive funds that replicate the indexes where is Volks (DAX, Euro Stoxx, FTSE Europe, MSCI) would also have to take a percentage of Free Float this. That is, the real Free Float, after accounting for index trackers, is minimal (near zero).
That is, in the end are only 6% of market shares in the company but programs that replcian rates every time that referees have to buy Volks especially in the Dax, where values are 30 and it weighs much so that in NO PAPER nutshell ...
and as we all know what that is fucked up ...
And to finish a good news for our experienced muldiviseros: The Bank of Japan is studying the first drop in rates since 2001.
Escrito por Carlos Lopez el 28 de Octubre de 2008 con 33 comentarios
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Comentario personal.-
El pasado viernes las acciones de ING en la bolsa de Ámsterdam sufrían una fuerte presión vendedora (al cierre perdían el 27%) y se rumoreaba estaban necesitados de capital urgentemente. La dirección del banco organizó una rueda de prensa dando cifras de la solidez financiera de la entidad. Durante el fin de semana el estado holandés inyectó 10 mil millones de € en dicho banco. Esta vez nadie puede acusar de la situación del banco a una retirada masiva de depósitos ya que el estado holandés había garantizado todos los préstamos hasta 2009 y, de hecho, el rumor no decía que ING suspendiera pagos sino que ampliaría capital y lo cubriría Holanda. Así pues, lo que se dijo en la rueda de prensa del viernes era falso. Una vez más, como se mintió con Bear Stearns, Fortis o Northern Rock. En todos los países el mismo proceso: es más fiable la tendencia bursátil de un banco que lo que puedan afirmar las autoridades. Y nadie se responsabiliza de las mentiras a los accionistas. ¿Conclusión? De momento hay confianza en los estados que asumen los errores de gestión de la banca privada pero ¿Confianza en el sistema financiero? Lo raro sería tenerla (textual de la prensa):
“La medida fue tomada apenas diez días después de que el mismo ING tomara el control de los activos del fracasado banco islándico Kaupthing. En ese momento, un comunicado del banco decía que lo hacía desde una posición de fortaleza, pues contaba con más de US$1,8 billones en activos y 85 millones de clientes en todo el mundo.”
Y al Barclays el estado británico le ofreció dinero tras asumir el riesgo de comprar los despojos de Lehman y estoy seguro si el Santander quisiera el estado español le daría dinero con lo que financiar sus aventuras de alto riesgo británicas y americanas…
Otro tema, parece ser que España busca que países árabes compren deuda estatal , hasta ahí perfecto pero coincide en el tiempo con la compra del estado español de deuda de los bancos. Es decir, España con su propia garantía capta fondos, compra con ese dinero lo que no venden sus bancos, confía en que esos bancos usen el dinero para aumentar el crédito y que los que captan el crédito lo devuelvan al estado vía impuestos…Sé que ya lo he dicho pero, ¿Por qué tantos intermediarios? Si España se endeuda, que sea para inyectar dinero a la sociedad y no a los bancos a los que no pueden obligar a que aumenten el crédito. Bajada de impuestos o subvención para hipotecas y créditos antes que recapitalizar bancos sería una medida mucha más social y sobre todo más rápida para salir de la crisis. En vez de eso, siguen sin devolver a los que tuvieron la declaración negativa…
En cuanto a bolsa es evidente que hemos entrado en un rango que por abajo tiene un soporte en los mínimos anuales y por arriba de momento son los 10 mil del Ibex (y del Dow, vuelven a estar emparejados), los 5000 del Dax o los 1000 del SP500, romper ese rango aceleraría el movimiento a corto (como hemos visto este jueves cuando el Ibex perdió sus anteriores mínimos anuales) sin por ello cambiar la tendencia a medio plazo, que sigue siendo aplastantemente bajista. Como no todo es bolsa, me parece destacable que el oro, en vez de valor refugio contra la crisis, sea otro bien que está en mínimos anuales. Y la explicación -aparte de la subida del $ y la bajada del crudo, al que suele seguir- está en que tradicionalmente el oro ha sido refugio contra la inflación y ahora se descuenta tal recesión que los precios parece han sido apartados como problema. Esto está descolocando a muchos inversores y fondos ya que en otro tiempo se compensaban las pérdidas en renta variable con las ganancias de metales, crudo o alimentos…e incluso dentro de la renta variable entre bolsas emergentes y no emergentes. Este año las pérdidas se acumulan en variados productos.
Por último, se da por hecho que el 29 de octubre la FED bajará los tipos y que el BCE lo hará el 6 de noviembre. La tendencia bajista sigue y con ella la del euribor. Esperemos el crudo siga apoyando la rebaja de la inflación aunque he de reconocer la semana pasada fui demasiado optimista respecto al precio de la gasolina y me confundí por mirar gráficos USA y fiarme de una mala fuente de Internet a la hora de transformar un gallon en su correspondiente en litros. Y para colmo, el $ va en nuestra contra. Y es que es realmente curioso que justo antes de las elecciones USA el $, a pesar del enorme déficit y sus tipos tan bajos, esté el $ en máximos de dos años.
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Escrito por Droblo el 24 de Octubre de 2008 con 438 comentarios
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En Noviembre hará un año de los máximos históricos de la bolsa americana y española. El aniversario coincide con una crisis bursátil y financiera que ha llevado a muchos estados a utilizar el dinero público para intentar resolver la situación. Justo entre medias de estas fechas -abril del 2007- salió una noticia que hoy parece olvidada: El G7 planteó un ultimátum a la banca por la cual les daban 100 días para aflorar todas sus pérdidas. Ese mismo G7 que decidió estos días, junto a otras instituciones económicas y políticas, acudir en auxilio de esos mismos bancos que ignoraron dicho ultimátum.
Dicen que era necesario, es posible, pero en esos bancos siguen los mismos directivos y gestores que llevaron una política tan nefasta que han necesitado ingentes cantidades de dinero público para sobrevivir. ¿Cómo es posible que se de un cheque en blanco para solucionar esto a los que gestionaron mal y que además ignoraron las advertencias?
Repaso algunos vínculos:
Esto podría ser muy largo aunque es fácilmente resumible: La FED bajó tipos a finales del verano de 2007 retrasando con ello la solución a la crisis y las bolsas en Noviembre (tanto el SP500 como el Ibex) tocaron máximos históricos, en un movimiento de ceguera total sobre la realidad económica. Las caídas de enero se achacaron al “trader loco” y las de junio a una tormenta de verano…y han necesitado el desplome de estos días para por fin actuar conjuntamente.
Ojalá sea cierto que no es demasiado tarde aunque yo creo se ha tardado demasiado. Y desde luego lo que considero inadmisible es que no rueden cabezas. Muchas personas han sido cómplices -activas y pasivas- de la actual crisis, pero aquel que gastó el 120% de sus ingresos confiado en el crédito y unas expectativas equivocadas está sufriendo en sus carnes las consecuencias. Y muchos inocentes, también. Las empresas mal gestionadas cerrarán o cambiarán sus equipos directivos pero, ¿Qué ocurre con los tesoreros de los bancos, los gestores de los fondos de pensiones, qué ocurre con los gestores políticos, qué ocurre con las agencias de ratings, y con las recomendaciones de los analistas?
En abril de este año fue muy famoso el vídeo de la CNBC en el que entrevistaron a Meredith Whitney, analista de Oppenhaimer, y sorpresivamente le preguntan por la supervivencia de Lehman y ella, que lógicamente pensaba acabaría quebrando, se pasa varios segundos sin saber qué decir, dudando entre si decir la verdad o no provocar “desconfianza”, muy famoso se hizo su “mmm”. Ella y su banco han sido de los pocos que llevan meses y meses recomendando vender en bancos y anunciando que éstos rebajarían dividendo y aumentarían capital, algo que los directivos de dichos bancos negaban y volvían a negar. Ahora el “tótem” es que hay que dar confianza, ¿eso implica no decir la verdad? ¿O quedarnos con el comentario que por las mismas fechas hacía uno de los analistas españoles con más prestigio entre los internautas?: “Recomiendo comprar bolsa porque los años que terminan en 8, cuando Enero se ha comportado mal, suelen subir con mucha fuerza sobre todo a partir del primer trimestre; de tal manera que un año que termine en 8, que en Enero se ha comportado muy mal, es muy probable que suba un 30% desde los mínimos del primer trimestre.”
Pero esto es anecdótico si lo comparamos con lo que ocurre con los principales responsables: ¿Cómo es que no ha dimitido Paulson tras recalcar tantas veces la fortaleza financiera de Bear Stearns, Freddie Mac y Fannie Mae entre otras? ¿Y Bernanke, cómo no se ha visto afectado por su mala gestión de la crisis? ¿Dónde están las dimisiones entre las agencias de ratings que aseguraban la fortaleza financiera de tantas entidades caídas? ¿Por qué los gobiernos no han exigido depuraciones de personal en busca de responsables en los bancos a los que inyectaron capital? ¿Cómo es posible que sigan los mismos en AIG y además lo celebren derrochando?
No puede ser que el ciudadano de a pie que se ha visto afectado por una crisis que apenas entiende sea el único que sufra las consecuencias y se use el dinero de sus impuestos para que los que nos han llevado a la crisis y todos sus cómplices sigan en sus poltronas. ¿Tiene que recuperarse la confianza? Cierto, pero para ello no hay nada mejor que sinceridad y responsabilidad. Que nos digan la verdad de una vez y que no comprometamos los ingresos del estado en unos gestores que nos han llevado a esto, que no lo supieron prever ni arreglar. Sin exigir responsabilidades monetarias, políticas e incluso penales si llega el caso, considero que no se resolverá la falta de confianza en el sistema.
Escrito por Droblo el 23 de Octubre de 2008 con 240 comentarios
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El otro día un amigo me comentaba que había tenido que llevar a alguien muy cercano a él a apuntarlo en el Registro de Prohibidos del Juego y así que no le permitan entrar en bingos, casinos y salas de juego. Lógicamente hasta llegar a ese punto esta persona pasó por todas las etapas de la enfermedad de la ludopatía y hablando sobre este tema no pudimos evitar comparar su situación con la de muchas personas que conocemos que han acabado arruinándose en los mercados de renta variable (yo mismo me arruiné por vez primera con futuros de renta fija en 1994 pero pude recuperarme) y nos asombramos que en el Registro de Prohibidos del Juego no incluyan la bolsa o los futuros del crudo por ejemplo.
Y es que toda esta conversación ocurrió el día de la presentación de resultados de Lehman Brothers y su apertura en +17% para acabar cerrando en -7% (al día siguiente desplomarse más de un 40% y después declararse en bancarrota) en una jornada de extrema volatilidad y dando la impresión de que a veces las acciones se comportan como la bola de la ruleta : por azar. Es cierto que a veces la bolsa parece un casino, y más este año donde la tendencia bajista es clara y ello propicia más movimientos (las tendencias alcistas suelen ser estadísticamente más tranquilas). Para colmo, los que han acertado dicha tendencia no pueden estar tranquilos como los que la acertaron en el periodo alcista pues tienen varios enemigos al acecho, especialmente la FED. Y es que las autoridades están encantadas de la bolsa alcista pero –por responsabilidad o por intereses políticos, eso ya es otra cuestión- el daño que provoca en la economía real una bolsa bajista les llevan a intentar revertir la tendencia y por lo tanto, dañar a los inversores/especuladores que acertaron con el lado bajista.
En cualquier caso, me niego a creer que la bolsa se mueva por azar en el medio plazo y creo que a la hora de invertir hay elementos objetivos que nos ayudan a tomar la decisión correcta. De entre las herramientas fundamentales para mi la mejor es el PER barato, es decir, cuando la relación entre el precio de una acción y sus beneficios (o sus perspectivas de beneficio) es favorable: Una acción nunca está barata por su precio, está barata si los beneficios se mantienen y su cotización baja o si cotización sube pero mucho menos que sus beneficios. Y por el mismo razonamiento no está cara porque suba de precio sino porque suba más su precio que sus beneficios. No hace mucho leí que la principal bolsa del mundo, el SP500, mantenía el mismo PER que cuando estaba en máximos históricos el año pasado aunque hayan caído tanto las cotizaciones porque en la misma proporción han bajado los beneficios. La bolsa suele adelantarse a las cifras con lo que cambiará de tendencia cuando se espere un aumento de los beneficios empresariales.
Pero si en el medio plazo ya la hora de invertir vemos que muchas herramientas (el citado PER, el análisis técnico, las pautas estadísticas etc.) confieren al hecho de comprar o vender en bolsa cierto aspecto lógico, también hemos de constatar que en el muy corto plazo y hablando de especulación y no de inversión hay muchos factores similares a los de los juegos de azar: rumores, datos imprevistos, informaciones que desconocemos, incluso falsedades como le ocurrió el otro día a los accionistas de United Airlines… Este año tuvimos un ejemplo muy claro el 21 de enero cuando la bolsa europea se desplomó por la decisión de Societé General de deshacer –en un día de menos participantes por ser fiesta en USA- todos los futuros de Dax y €stoxx comprados irresponsablemente y sin permiso por un tal Jerome. Es evidente que sin ese factor la tendencia hubiera seguido siendo bajista y ese día la bolsa hubiera probablemente bajado pero no en la magnitud en que lo hizo, y es también más que posible que al día siguiente la FED no hubiera tomado la decisión urgente de bajar los tipos de interés de golpe tres cuartos de punto. En resumen, que si la suerte influye hasta en las decisiones de los bancos centrales…qué no influirá en nosotros si decidimos especular a corto plazo.
Por eso Internet ha ayudado muchísimo a que todos tengamos buenas herramientas para trabajar en los mercados: desde la velocidad hasta la información y en general las entidades financieras se han adaptado muy bien al medio y además han creado muchos productos (futuros, opciones, Cfd´s…) que son asequibles para el gran público pero nadie, ni el más experto y experimentado de los especuladores, está a salvo del error y de la mala suerte. Por eso es fundamental el uso de stop-loss (límite de pérdidas donde deshacemos la posición tomada y nos dedicamos a otra cosa) y la humildad a la hora de intentar ganar un dinero que, no lo olvidemos, está dejando de ganar otro que puede ser hasta más listo que nosotros.
Y como no, estar informado y para ello os dejo un resumen de noticias:
Escrito por Droblo el 21 de Octubre de 2008 con 331 comentarios
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