With a little delay will leave the comment of the week, this time from the hand hyperactive dei ICG
November 14, 2008, at 9:32.
Well, well ... it is Friday!
We are pleased to arrive safely ... one more week.
I say that if these high levels and thieves do not realize what's really happening ... then I will explain! Mr and Mrs that are up there leading the herd (which I am) ... pay attention to what I'm going to say:
The central and basic causes for the slowdown is occurring (a wink and Solbes ZP), crisis, recession, estanflacción, depression ... or as we like to call it, is an easy and simple reason is that ... ... and have gone from Thread! Have missed the last round of the nut ... a time to squeeze and enslaved. Is this the only reason why the cow and no more milk. We have no milk in the teats ... and we do not have good grass-fed ... and now we are skeletal cows.
It's that simple. Consider:
A) If I collect like my father ... and do not give up. Yes!, Ladies and gentlemen, charging the same as my dear father and 20 years have passed. I repeat the same salary after 20 years ...! Given that I am a thousand times better than him (my father was a pastor and then operator of the assembly line ... does not have an elementary school) ... and I, with EGB, ESO, and Baccalaureate degree and I am ... same salary ... (how sad, for God's sake!)
B) If the price of everything has increased by 2, 3, 5 or 10 ... (food, entertainment, restaurants, gasoline, apartments, rent ... and what has not grown ... the CPI has risen at least if clothes, cars, ...)
Well ... ... NOT BLOCK THE ACCOUNTS. I was patatero scratch in their pockets! Yes, yes ... listen zero Zapatero! Not one euro. And I wonder: What I have to revive consumption? Then sit to wait ... because I will ask for another loan ... how?
Economy and so many masters, many advisers and analistos ... .. what!? Please .... ... respondanme economic elites and leaders of the Spanish comedy farce! what?
Here subtraction: if "A" diminishes "B" ... what gives? Well, negative number, the red is not ...? So I say in your language: negative growth numbers ... (slowed or numbers).
So I see it:
YEAR 2008: I join 1,200 euros a month (ie "A") ... and that the monthly concepts of "B" are a whopping 700 rent, $ 100 petrol, 100 of food, such and such ... me ... Yields: -500 euros. I have no NOTHING in their pockets to spend ... on the contrary, the "life" I have to pull your credit card to survive the $ 500 monthly debt.
YEAR 1990: my father entered 200 thousand pesetas (A) ... and that this has had three children, pay rent, car, food and such ... ... this result still saved money !!!!! He envelopes!! (eye! And my father has had a stable job and fixed all his working life ... I, however, garbage contracts, and other agencies guarradas ...)
Now we see more clearly? Eooo ... ... eooo! Lords ruling, employers, entrepreneurs ... ..!!!! eooooo .... where are they? See the accounts? And what I know about the congress and the senate ... .. Empty. Our representatives .... those who sail on our well-being .... as moonlighters and 5 thousand euros monthly deputy fail to month ... do not work as deputies and engage in self-employment or who are also employed. (Please, a little shame and respect for citizens ... to attend parliament. Reclamo compulsory attendance of all deputies and senators to all sessions of both chambers of parliament).
And so, all I can say is that I am Spanish and what I feel: ¡¡¡SHAME! ¡¡¡INDIGNACIÓN! ¡¡¡IMPOTENCE!
The comment has been slightly censored, you have the original here.
Greetings and who are very good weekend ... I'm going to take it, I assure you all.
Written by Carlos Lopez on November 16, 2008 42 comments
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Personal comment.
On Friday, the markets appeared to throw a sense of strength: General Motors touched lows and reported that no government assistance would go to the bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost in both the Dow Jones three days after a presidential election, the SP down together on Wednesday and Thursday is the highest in two days since 1987 and the rebound technical after he was so down-low volume, and could give an explanation and it was feared an exception to the weekly trend. The large package of measures the Chinese government of the weekend (from $ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, which would be another and a few cartridges) extended this feeling positive in Asia and Europe on Monday morning with the exception of Ibex. There's no joy until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on October 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Sáez, denied need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, shared ABN assets, Cepsa, the fund management and insurance, the price demanded. In short, he has bought unsold before and now has met with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and expanding it is costing all shareholders million in market capitalization euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis only: no matter how much lower interest rates, including EURIBOR, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or attempts to capture new ones. Santander can do that, but how many companies can do the same, how much funding will get lower rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shading on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
The other is the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar at other times we have seen much worse economic data and if the figures do not even the bank bad debt is still worrying (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As shown in the figures economic cycles have been more desperate, it might be a cyclical crisis and give more reason to feel optimistic that you can leave it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without this condition will worsen and data, as we have seen this week, the suspension of payments that began in financial, banking and then went on to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is destroying the economy and stock markets, the beneficial effect of lower interest rates. If we add to that the fact that I said the need to sell assets in order to have lost value of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity now is one of the greatest obstacles to the upward trend since it is one of the few markets to draw cash if needed, even at the level of citizens is even easier to sell shares to lose a lot to try to sell another property. As positive aspects of this bad stock weeks, two factors: the low volume decreases (although it can also mean that we remain far from the capitulation later also from the ground) and the finding of the telecoms sector as a safe-to-date available. Now we have to have faith in the famous reunion this weekend but particularly in the aspect I have more faith in market potential manipulation bullish next Friday 21 expiration of the effect of some future (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next weeks is a very friendly bags.
Finally, it is very important, despite the rebound yesterday afternoon, falling crude oil (although the effect of the weak € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable), gas natural and, in general, all the raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive because it's getting the bags in many economies where there is much money ... the most important example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials and lower-stop-confident person to make a speculation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)
Written by Droblo on November 14, 2008 with 337 comments
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Personal comment.
After the miracle that was expected (and confirmed) this week, which is called a black Hussein Obama and get to the president of USA (another miracle will do so well), I received news of the aid of our government the mortgage and I thought if there were any other one this week and the government have gone from here when called for direct aid to the people. But I fear not the case: the government decided to deny the crisis first and then support the bank with a series of measures hardly justifiable to the alleged strength of our financial sector. Now that results have boxes and banks and profits have continued to be astronomical (if they are not imply that aid has not been a change in transparency, any entity which is still missing in Spain this loss when it is stronger in other countries that we) decided to "help" directly to certain mortgage helping them go through this downturn. But once again become a more aid for banks to citizens. I think the forum has already been felt all of opinion on this issue and I must say that very sharply so I just want to emphasize again that the prevailing idea is something like: "We are in the worst of the crisis, the guarantee deposits until 2010 and help the mortgage and two years later with the revival that will all be fine, "What will happen if those unemployed after a moratorium of two years can not find work? For that there is no answer.
Of course it is desirable that all this is more a cyclical rough patch but for the moment this seems far removed from reality. The figures continue to worsen every week and what is valued as improvement after adjustments may simply be a very sharp. Look at this original graphic where we can see how it appears the tendency of banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve is changing, but if we compare with other periods in which not even need to resort to EDF, it is easy to appreciate the level of banking crisis the USA and alejadísimo that this is settled:
I do not see any signs to believe that this crisis will last only a few months. E insist not confuse the stock market (which may well bounce for a few weeks as he was bounced a few days) with the real economy. The macro data are disastrous, unreservedly and hope that the discount-rate change can be justified or not, just realized for many months, and that if it lowers the credit drives. If not, only reduce the benefits of saving activity without encouraging investors. The worst thing is that the states are running out of room for maneuver in Spain itself has acknowledged Solbes (http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Solbes/dice/habra/recursos/afrontar/crisis/elpepueco / 20081105elpepieco_6/Tes)
Turning to the bag, the idea of "This is a bump, a historic opportunity to buy, but months back upward path" is being installed. And yet this week (except in Europe, Thursday-closed flat Thursday, with some other better and worse) has to have a negative balance. And what if we look at the percentage increase since we have been minimal, the drop is notable because it was very abrupt. And they met the upward trend in November and rise up to (Tuesday) after a day of low volatility (Monday). But even with the help of central banks has been with the resistance that led commenting two weeks ago and is still stuck in a dangerous area. The Dax rose well above the 5000 but was unable to keep the SP and the arrival in 1000 was the perfect excuse to very aggressive sales. The Dow and the Ibex or have approached the 10 mil ...
The fear is still there and as we saw on Wednesday that although statistically the markets work better on the day following the victory of a Republican than a Democrat is that the truth should have been positive expectations were met and there were no surprises, but these recent weeks about buying the rumor and sell the news is becoming a habit and this caused deep bass movement. As I said last week, while there is calm but rising threat falls in there in a hurry to sell. And he has returned to fulfill. However, I detect many voices that speak of buying in the fall of the year-end rally is possible .... I remain neutral and envy it is clear that at these levels because I keep seeing danger to both sides. Today we know the data of unemployment last month and is feared to be disastrous, more than -200 thousand. As you recall that statistical curiosity was not so bad a figure since March 2003, just months in the death of the previous bearish trend upward and eventually began in fall 2007.
And what about the Euribor, a point: that is truly novel now has one year deposits in financial institutions and which are due before 2010 and thus are guaranteed by the state, giving a return similar to the cost of a mortgage. I think that an abnormality is corrected when the 2009 and not much need for liquidity to match balance at the end of the year. The Euribor rate comparing with a year to 14 days of intervention by the ECB should better compare the profitability offered by your bank to a year and what it pays in the same mortgage bank and verify that the differential is not so much . Not to defend the banks with this, just describe a reality, the battle to capture liability is so great that the difference between what a customer receives money and what they must pay money for a mortgage is minimal. One consolation: yesterday in U.S. rates were at 1% and 12 months at LIBOR 2.84 (a 184% increase), here have andalusia 3.25 and Euribor 12 months to 4.70 (a 44.62% increase). But still could be much worse ...
(more ...)
Written by Droblo on November 7, 2008 with 297 comments
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The other day looking for the network can find an interesting article by a professor who uses the episodes of The Simpsons to teach economics, so I have put on a plate to go slowly and translating it can turn on some basic economic concepts .
In the episode "The way in which we were" moved us to the time when Homer had hair and was in high school. Then that Marge is trying to fix it, which decided to join the same activities that it, including the debate team. The topic for discussion was "Determined: The speed limit is reduced to 80 km / h". Homer, after learning that reacts immediately shouting "This is ridiculous!. Save some lives, but millions will arrive late. " Undoubtedly, a bit politically correct and might not Saldías in a debate in which everyone would be focusing on the same subject (save lives) but shows a different view of both the problem and the solution.
Sometimes we tend to think that economics is an exact science and that if you like warm water over 100 degrees it boils, lower rates and increase the consumption point. Unfortunately it is not as simple as the amount of side effects and long-term effects that occur are as important as unpredictable. In some cases the reactions are obvious and some of the side effects are predictable. This is what distinguishes a good from a bad economist, providing these invisible.
Yesterday the FED to lower rates again and a fairly strong 1.5% to 1% which is placed in minimum not seen since June 2003. Short-term effects are predictable, falling dollar, rising stock markets and the recovery of consumption. At least this is what the manual says the economist, but all we ask. What are the side effects in the long run, that will produce the return to historically low levels of rates?. For many years, praised the policy of Alan Greenspan as head of the EDF because it managed to get us out of a crisis (caused by the. Com and the attacks of 11S) and the speeches made, but now is in the spotlight many as seen in perspective it looks as if it had wanted to cure a cold with chemotherapy causing one of the biggest real estate bubbles and financial crises in history. Across the pond, we have a guy named Trichet more cautious, as the case may be sin for wanting to cure a cold low with only juice in your case has the advantage of being able to see a patient with advanced disease and and to see if the solutions work in the U.S. or not. It is always easier to do experiments, when another has done before.
So to complete the famous phrase Freeman Clarke said that "A politician is one who thinks the next election, a statesman is one who thinks. the next generation might also add that a good economist is one who thinks so unpredictable. Therefore, as things stand now, we need good and good economists.
And finally, the usual summary of news:
Written by Carlos Lopez on October 30, 2008 with 304 comments
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In November will be a year of the historic highs of the American exchange and Spanish. The anniversary coincides with a stock market and financial crisis that has led many states to use public money to try to resolve the situation. Just in between those dates to April 2007 - came out a press release today that seems to forget: The G7 raised an ultimatum to the banks which gave them 100 days to revealing all of their losses. G7 decided that the same these days, along with other economic institutions and policies, go to the aid of those same banks that ignored the ultimatum.
They say that it was necessary, it is possible, but these banks are still the same executives and managers who took such a disastrous policy which required huge amounts of public money to survive. How is it possible that a blank check to solve this to the mismanaged and that it also ignored the warnings?
Review some links:
This could be very long but is easily summarize: The FED dropped rates in late summer 2007 thereby delaying a solution to the crisis and the stock exchanges in November (both the SP500 as the Ibex) touched historic highs, in a movement of blindness over economic reality. Falls in January was attributed to the "mad trader" and from June to a summer storm ... and has taken the collapse of these days to finally act together.
Hopefully it is true that it is not too late but I think it took too much. And of course what we consider unacceptable is that no heads roll. Many people have been complicit and active-passive-of the current crisis, but who spent 120% of their income on credit and trust in the wrong expectations in their meat is suffering the consequences. Many innocent, too. Mismanaged companies close or change their management teams, but what happens to the treasurers of banks, managers of pension funds, what happens to the policy makers, what happens to the ratings agencies, and the recommendations of analysts?
In April this year was very famous video in which CNBC interviewed Meredith Whitney, an analyst at Oppenhaimer and unexpectedly asked about the survival of Lehman and she naturally thought it would end up bankrupt, spent several seconds without knowing what say, between doubting whether or not to tell the truth cause "mistrust," was his famous "mmm". She and her bank were among the few who take months and months recommending selling in banks and announcing that they rebajarían dividend and capital increase, which the directors of these banks refused and returned to deny. Now the "totem" is to give confidence, that means not tell the truth? Or stick with the comment made by the same time one of the most prestigious Spanish analysts from the Internet: "I recommend buying the stock market because years ending in 8, in January when he has behaved badly, often with great force on top everything from the first quarter, so a year that ends in 8, in January has behaved very badly, it is very likely to raise a minimum of 30% since the first quarter. "
But this is anecdotal compared to what happens to the heads: How is it that has not resigned after Paulson stressed many times the financial strength of Bear Stearns, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac among others? And Bernanke, how was not affected by its mismanagement of the crisis? Where are the resignations from the ratings agencies that ensured the financial strength of many institutions fall? Why do governments have not demanded purges of personnel responsible for the banks to inject capital? How is it possible to continue in the same place as AIG and waste?
Can not be that the average citizen who has been affected by a crisis that is hardly the only means to suffer the consequences and use the money from their taxes for those who have led us to the crisis and continue all their accomplices in their seats. Does it have to recover confidence? True, but that there is nothing better than sincerity and responsibility. We tell the truth once and they do not undermine the state's income by some managers who have brought us to this, not to provide or arrange knew. Without accountability monetary, political and even criminal if necessary, I believe that it will not be a lack of confidence in the system.
Written by Droblo on October 23, 2008 with 241 comments
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Today I'm going to do a test. Since many of us for the economic moment of the day comes at precisely 11:10 (when published Euribor) and the commentary revolves around the value, I will split the article into two. First a summary of the press to discuss the news and the forecast for later Euribor article published daily (at 11:30) and try to focus on economic issues.
So let's see what the media tells us today:
We read again at 11:30!
Written by Carlos Lopez on October 23, 2008 with 177 comments
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