¿Larger boxes?

In the normal financial system, which constitute the banks, all institutions have owners that are represented by the respective boards of directors. These tips caregivers, for their own benefit, not to extend credit to insolvent companies or who is supposed to taxation systems and detects when there are problems, provisions such loans, and proceeded to execute warrants that are taken, if that exist. But bankers can not do what they want with the claim that handle as the bank is not theirs. Are accountable to shareholders, depositors before (because misuse of credit can break the institution and we all lose their money) and before the public finances if, for example, is regarded as an expense credit granted in the knowledge that it would not be returned.
That was the case of Mario Conde who was sentenced to six years in prison for paying 600 million pesetas for a company, without any endorsement Argentia Trust (which later were shown to that company then distributed the money among various Spanish political influence to in governmental decisions in favor of the interests of Mario Conde was not the reason for his detention but he who gave that money without guarantees of payment). I know that in recent times and in some countries, the bankers have ignored these rules and to cap it had not been punished but for the moment in Spain are not in that situation and all banks are reporting profits.

Unfortunately, the savings in the hands of local politicians, it can grant credit without running and without provisions for guarantees, especially political parties, or can not?, Or may not be? If it does occur fairly often ... And now it is intended that these boxes are made even stronger by joining them. No doubt it is a good solution for their survival (in exchange for thousands of layoffs, yes) but also magnify the problem of these entities whose management is so unclear.

The boxes have lost their land, they open branches across the country and even have the largest investments abroad. There is a market Murcia, La Rioja, or Basque, a European level in that category regionalist no sense. It could be said of its social function but that is a vague concept whose spending is little quantifiable and that could be replaced by an increase in tax relief to certain tasks of banking as the sponsorship of culture. If we convert the biggest move in two things: whether it is within the same community, its economic importance is so great that the economic power and political autonomy is even more confused if they join together and boxes of different communities, how to ensure balance, how to unify criteria if the political influence of each autonomous community is different, and yet it remains how to ensure that CajaMadrid-for example, is just in its social spending with Murcia event of a merger with the Fund of Murcia? I think the management problems worsen.

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Written by Droblo on December 3, 2008 with 294 reviews
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Always negative, never positive

This archiconocida sentence of ex-Barcelona coach Louis van Gaal, aimed at sports journalists, insisting on highlighting the negative aspects of the game of FC Barcelona during a stage of crisis in the game "pass" or painted it comes to the national situation. Zapatero to imagine, screaming at the congress to Rajoy "ALWAYS NO, NEVER POSITIVE! YOU ARE VERY BAD!

In this country, things are going from one extreme to another, a time when everything was going "wind in its sails," which said that the model was not sustainable, they were branded as doom, and the press was selling the strength of the Spanish market, of large corporations such as leaving abroad to buy, as was the miracle Spanish reconquered the world, and now that everything is black, everything is negative and quoting another Barcelona (Joan Laporta) "EYE, NOT WE THE DEN THAT WE ARE NOT SO BAD!

I believe that the current global crisis is bringing many negative effects, but we should also look for the positive. The optimistic view is something that should never be lost. In business schools, to illustrate this idea, explains that an ancient culture like China, the concepts are spoken by the same word.

Here is a brief list of opportunities that gives us the crisis.

1. Many of those who are going poorly, finances are learning in a rush, and I doubt very much the recurrence of financial mass suicides like that have occurred in recent years and if memory flojea not allow their kids committed.
2. The sharp decline in consumption, lowers inflation, and hence the rates and the Euribor relax, lowering the mortgage fees.
   I hope that learning point 1 plus the lowering of quotas next year of Section 2, allowing for better financial health for Spanish families over the next few years.
3. The strike will obviously be a problem for many people, but the time of arrest, is an ideal time for training. If you suddenly had 4 million Spanish learning something, the Spanish would enhance human capital. We see it as an opportunity to leave a bit of low value-added industry we have in Spain, so that when the economic recovery, we stop being at the tail of the added value and productivity in Europe.
4. Speculative markets appear to be in decline by low confidence, both as a bag house, there is a major slap. With a little luck, we learn that it is not normal for someone to win with the sale of an apartment that has not been able to win in his entire life working, leaving indebted for life to a third party.
5. Are coming to light and exploiting many bubbles that neither knew they existed, such as restaurants, furniture, vehicles and household appliances. You just need to see what a laptop is worth today. Did not you feel cheated when they get catalogs filled with offers to the mailbox and see what they are worth and what it worth?
6. Reactivation of the market for repairs of all kinds, in turn reducing the volume of waste discharges. How many appliances have been thrown in the trash to be in perfect order of use?
7. Rationalization of consumption, which will cause a reduction in the buying momentum that we had to buy things or useless without comparing prices, producing an effect of "natural selection" in which only surviving companies more efficient.
8. Reduced margins in the brokerage that has hurt both the company and that has enriched a few. For example, following the shocking margins that brokers were taking food, I started to go to the market to buy fruit and vegetables and I discovered a couple of things, that the price is lower and the flavor of tomatoes.
9. falling topics as "the house never low," "the Euribor can never climb above ...", "prolonged periods to be better off" and at international level has sunk into poverty lapidary phrase in force until the moment of "to big to fail "(too big for fall).
10. Those who bought housing to live (which seems to lie that there would be this way) they will lower the fees and those who bought for speculation they have been fucked up the plum. In general, the loss of profitability above average, away from the market undesirable.
11. For those who prefer to hire, rising supply, it could at least keep prices stable few years.
12. The society is an intelligent when it is in distress, very good ideas emerge spontaneously, as the Bank of Time.

The Bank of Time is a community that uses as a bargaining chip "when" and personal skills. I offer my services without any monetary payment (usually) and by completing Coupons about who gets my services, can be accumulated "time". Subsequently, I can go to the headquarters of the bank's time and redeem the services provided by others. One of the pioneers in developing experiments on the bank of the time was the American anarchist Josiah Warren.

In an interview that was broadcast on television Catalan, left several examples. A young single computer that gave classes in the evenings from Windows and Office users at a number of housewives, and then, with the "time" that he had won, passing by the house of a woman who gave him a dinner Tupper and the food the next day. This lady was offered for ironing and cooking for others, and in exchange, earned the "weather" of a plumber, a lampista, a massage or simply a company for people you do or buy to accompany.

Time is not susceptible to currency speculation, resists inflation, is very stable, with no financial institution will charge you interest and for which the Treasury can not you apply any tax. More importantly, it revitalizes the life of the community.

Obviously, this system can not replace the current monetary system, money and banks are absolutely necessary, but when we find alternatives, however small, stop being so dependent on the system and broken (or is slightly) the monopoly.

Oriolrc written by the November 17, 2008 with 275 comments
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Comment of the week

With a little delay I leave with you the comment of the week, this time from the hand deI hyperactive ICG

November 14, 2008, at 9:32.

Well, well ... it is Friday!

We are pleased to reach safe and sound ... one more week.

I say that if these ladronzuelos and high areas do not realize what's really happening ... then I will explain it! Mss. And Messrs.'s That are up there leading the herd (in which I too am) ... pay attention to what I'm going to say:

The central and basic cause for the slowdown is occurring (wink to Solbes and ZP), crisis, recession, estanflacción, depression ... or as we like to call it, is a simple and easy reason is that ... and ... have gone from Thread! Have skipped the last round of the nut ... at the time of squeezed and enslaved. This is just the reason that the cow no longer gives more milk. We have no milk in the teats ... and we do not have good grass-fed ... and now we are skeletal cows.

It's that simple. Consider:

A) If I collect like my father ... and do not growth. Yes!, Ladies and gentlemen, charging the same thing that my dear father and have spent 20 years. I repeat: the same salary after 20 years ...! Taking into account that I am a thousand times better than him (my father was a pastor and then operator of the assembly line ... does not have an elementary school) ... and I, with EGB, ESO, and Bachelor degree ... and I the same salary ... (how sad, by God!)

B) And if the price of everything has been multiplied by 2, 3, 5 or 10 ... (food, entertainment, restaurants, gasoline, flats, rentals ... and what has not grown ... the CPI has risen at least, that if clothes, cars, ...)

Well ... ... NOT BLOCK THE ACCOUNTS. I left patatero zero in their pockets! Yes, yes ... listen: zero Zapatero! Not one euro. And you wonder: What I have to revive consumption? Well, wait ... because he sat me how to say ... I ask another credit?

Economy and so many masters, many advisers and analistos ... .. what!? Please .... respondanme ... economic elites and rulers of the Spanish comedy farce! for what?

Let's see the rest: whether to "A" less "B" ... what gives? Well, negative numbers, numbers do not mean ... RED? Well I say this in your language: numbers with NEGATIVE GROWTH ... (or numbers slowed).

So I see it:

YEAR 2008: I income 1,200 euros a month (ie "A") ... and it turns out that the concepts of monthly "B" give a whopping 700 euros rent, $ 100 petrol, 100 euros for food, such and such ... ... gives me Yields: -500 euros. I have no NOTHING in their pockets to spend ... on the contrary, the "life" compels me to throw credit card to survive those $ 500 monthly debt.

YEAR 1990: my father entered 200 billion pesetas ( "A") ... and it turns out that this has kept three children, pay floor, car, food ... such and such ... result: still saved money !!!!! Le envelopes!! (eye! And my father has had steady job and fixed his entire working life ... I, however, garbage contracts, agencies and other guarradas ...)

Now they see it more clearly? Eooo ... ... eooo! Lords ruling, employers, entrepreneurs ... ..!!!! eooooo .... where are they? Come accounts? And you know what I see around: the congress and the senate ... .. EMPTY. Our representatives .... those who have to sail through our welfare .... as are pluriempleados and with the 5 billion euros monthly deputy can not come to the end of the month ... because deputies do not work and dedicated to the self-employed or employed person who also have. (Please, a little shame and respect for citizens ... to attend parliament. Claim compulsory attendance of all deputies and senators to all sessions of both houses of parliament).

And so, all I can say that I am as Spanish is what I feel: SHAME! Outrage! IMPOTENCE!

The comment has been slightly censored, you have the original here.

Greetings and who are very good weekend ... I do what I'm feeling, I assure you everyone.

Written by Carlos Lopez on November 16, 2008 with 42 comments
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The week in the markets (6-13 Nov)

Personal comment.

On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.

The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?

I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%

This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:

In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.

And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.

Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)

Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
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Real CPI

Since he is no longer the "gold standard" and a ticket does not represent anything physical but simply faith in its issuer has formalized the old adage that says that the basis of the economy is confidence. As long as there is confidence the economy may go well although there are points "dark". Why? Because if consumers and businesses and banks believe in a good future, spend, invest and lend and this will generate well-paid jobs so the virtuous circle will continue to operate and will continue to spend, invest and banks to finance projects future.

For that confidence is not lost speeches by political and economic decision usually mostly reassuring because if you lose falling economic growth and are entering a vicious circle: consumers do not spend, businesses earn less and reduce their investment and the banks get the credit because bad debt increases. And the order may be reversed as is happening with the current crisis: the banks reduce credit before the outbreak of the housing bubble and late payment by bad investments, get the credit to businesses and consumers, scared by all this, spending less and therefore less to buy companies that reduce their profits and, ultimately, generate unemployment. Besides the problem in society that this generates, it is clear that if unemployment rises and companies and banks earn less income are also lower because of the administration are charged less tax at a time that should increase social spending.

All this is very basic, nothing original but there is one factor that can undermine the confidence that usually goes unnoticed: the veracity of official data. And because they are not certain or not, but by the manner of calculating them. And it would take pages to explain how such data in the USA is distorted industrial orders each month with the orders of governmental machinery of war or the handling of the Department of Labor with the monthly employment data ... there are many examples. However, one of the most striking to me is the calculation of the CPI.

Take the example of Spain, whose CPI in 2007 was 4.2%, which should mean that average prices rose by 4.2% but it is clear that a TV-for example, do not shop every week or even every year But the milk (which went up 31%) is almost daily, or the pan (+14%) and fuels (+16.2%). Some say that the perception of these costs-to-be everyday makes us believe that inflation is higher than it is but I think that is the weighting system which is not fair.

How is it possible that if housing prices went up by 30% annual inflation was only 3% if half of the household budget goes to pay the house itself? Let us go further: In the mid-20, share prices in the U.S. grew an average of 3.5 times in five years, but the prices of consumer goods did not vary significantly. Should we conclude that there was no inflation? Why? Why exclude the rates of inflation, for no reason, financial assets? If low interest rates we had in Spain in recent years had flow, rather than mortgage credit, to consumer credit, the CPI would have been fired (instead of housing prices) and it would have suffered Official inflation.

The current base weights of 2001 and are adjusted each year minimally. The latest data available are these:

With these data you can see that inflation affects the poorest who are based consumption especially in the first paragraph.

Now that every reader will see if this table is in line with their usual costs and check that this calculation very similar in all the countries around us, is very subjective ... Of course, while we believe the data and return to the issue of confidence - Everything will be fine and accept that our salaries and pensions go up each year, the official CPI and so we think that we do not lose purchasing power.

At this official website you can calculate the CPI has risen far from the official dates (data from 1961):

PD - Still others are doing worse, look at the figures of the country most inflationary in the world:

Summary: press

• The German economy entered into recession after contracting 0.5%
• U.S. will not buy more active "toxic" but will invest in banking capital
• BBVA forecasts: the rates drop to 1.5% and the Euribor will be at 2.5%
• Up to 25,000 shops miss the closing this year
• The interbank still does not work: only cross transactions a day
• Santander began the largest capital increase in cash from Spain
• The government shuffled back onto the light in January
• The crisis will cause the Spanish people spent up to 11% less this Christmas

Droblo written by the November 13, 2008 with 428 comments
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The week in the markets (31 Oct - 6Nov)

Personal comment.

After the miracle that was expected (and confirmed) this week, which is called a black and Hussein Obama becomes president of the USA (another miracle is that she does), I received news of aid from our government the mortgage and I thought if there were any other one this week and the government would have done if we are from here when called for direct aid to the people. But I am afraid that has not happened: the government first decided to deny the crisis and support the banking industry after a series of measures hardly justifiable to the alleged strength of our financial sector. Now they have submitted results boxes and banks and profits have continued to be astronomical (if they are not means that aid has not been a change of transparency, still missing that no entity in Spain this loss when there are solutions in other countries more solid than ours) decide to "help" directly to individual mortgaged helping them go through this slump. But once again become a more aid for banks to the public. I think in the forum has already been felt all the opinions on this subject and I must also say that very acutely so I just want to emphasize again that the prevailing idea is something like: "We are in the worst of the crisis, guaranteed deposits until 2010 and helped the mortgaged two years and then with the revival that will fix everything is "What will happen if those unemployed after a two-year moratorium can not find work? For this reason there is no response.

Of course it is desirable that all this is a bad streak but most cyclical of time this seems far removed from reality. The numbers continue to decline week to week and what is valued as improvement may simply be adjustments after a very sharp. Fixed in this original graphic where we can see how it appears the trend of banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve is changing, but if we compare with other periods in which there is not even needed to resort to the EDF, it is easy to appreciate the level of banking crisis of the USA and alejadísimo that this is settled:

I do not see any signal that enables believe that this crisis will last only a few months. E insist not to confuse the bag (which may well bounce for a few weeks as he was bouncing a few days) with the real economy. The macro data are disastrous, unreservedly and hope that the lowering of rates might change, whether justified or not-only be realized within several months, and that if this drives the rebate credit. If not, only reduce the benefits of saving without encouraging the activity to the investor. And the worst thing is that the states are running out of room for maneuver as in Spain itself has acknowledged Solbes (http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Solbes/dice/habra/recursos/afrontar/crisis/elpepueco / 20081105elpepieco_6/Tes)

Turning to the bag, the idea of "This is a pothole, a historic opportunity to buy, but months back in the upward path" is being installed. And yet this week (except in Europe, from Thursday to Thursday-closed flat, with some better rates and other worse) has come to a negative balance. And that if we look at the percentage rise since we have been minimal, is notable because the descent was very sharp. And was the upward trend in November and the maximum rise (Tuesday) after a day of low volatility (Monday). But neither with the help of central banks has been with the resistance led by commenting two weeks ago and is still stuck in a dangerous area. The Dax rose well above 5000 but has been unable to keep them in the SP and the arrival in 1000 has been the perfect excuse to very aggressive sales. The Dow and the Ibex nor have approached the 10 mil ...

The fear is still there as we saw on Wednesday because although statistically markets operate best on the day following the victory of a Republican than a Democrat the truth is that it should have been positive that the forecasts were met and there were no surprises, however these As of last week to buy the rumor and sell the news is becoming a habit and this caused a deep bearish movement. As I commented last week, while there are rises in quiet but there are a lot of threat falls hurry to sell. And he has returned to fulfill. However, I detect many voices that speak of buying in the fall of the year-end rally is possible .... I remain neutral and to envy to keep clear at these levels because I keep seeing danger to both sides. Hoy se conoce el dato de paro del mes pasado y se teme sea desastroso, de más de -200 mil. Como curiosidad estadística os recordaré que no se veía un dato tan malo desde marzo de 2003, justo el mes en el que murió la anterior tendencia bajista y empezó la alcista que acabó en el otoño de 2007.

Y respecto al euribor, un apunte: es realmente novedoso que ahora mismo haya depósitos a un año en entidades financieras -y que vencen antes de 2010 y por lo tanto están garantizados por el estado- que dan una rentabilidad similar al coste de una hipoteca. Me parece una anormalidad que se corregirá cuando llegue el 2009 y no haya tanta necesidad de liquidez de cara a cuadrar balance para el fin de año. Los que comparan el tipo euribor a un año con el de intervención a 14 días del BCE, deberían mejor comparar la rentabilidad que le ofrece su banco a un año y lo que paga de hipoteca en ese mismo banco y comprobará que el diferencial no es tanto. No defiendo a los bancos con esto, sólo describo una realidad, la batalla por captar pasivo es tan grande que el diferencial entre lo que recibe un cliente con dinero y lo que paga uno que debe dinero por la hipoteca está en mínimos. Y un consuelo: ayer en USA los tipos estaban al 1% y el libor a 12 meses al 2.84 (un 184% más), aquí los han puesto al 3.25 y el euribor a 12 meses al 4.70 (un 44.62% más). Sigue siendo mucho pero podría ser aún peor…

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Escrito por Droblo el 7 de Noviembre de 2008 con 297 comentarios
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