In the normal financial system, which are banks, the institutions have all owners are represented by the respective boards of directors. These tips caring for their own benefit, not to lend to companies that are insolvent or can be assumed that in future it is found that there are problems, provisions such loans, and proceed to execute warrants that have little if that exist. But the bankers can not do what they want with that handle credit and the bank is not theirs. Are accountable to shareholders, depositors before (because misuse of credit can break the bank and lose all their money) and the public finances if, for example, is considered a loan as an expense in the knowledge that would not be returned.
That was the case of Mario Conde who was sentenced to six years in prison for paying 600 million pesetas for a company, Argentia Trust no guarantee (which later proved that it then distributed the money among various Spanish politicians to influence in governmental decisions in the interests of Mario Conde was not the reason for his detention but he gave the money without collateral Banesto). I know that in recent times and bankers in some countries have ignored these rules and to cap it had not been punished but for the moment in Spain are not in that situation and all the banks are reporting profits.
Unfortunately, the savings in the hands of local politicians, it can grant credit without reserve and without running guarantees, especially political parties, or can not?, Or may not be? If it does occur quite frequently ... And now it is intended that these boxes are made even stronger, uniéndolas. No doubt it is a good solution for their survival (in exchange for thousands of layoffs, though) but also magnify the problem of those entities whose management is so unclear.
The boxes have lost their land, opening branches around the country and even have the largest investment abroad. There is a market Murcia, La Rioja and the Basque, a European level in the category regionalistic no sense. It could be said of its social function, but this is a vague concept which is not quantifiable and spending that could be replaced by an increase in tax relief to certain tasks such as banking sponsorship of culture. If you become the greatest pass two things: whether it is within a community of its economic importance is so great that the economic and political autonomy is even more confused if we unite and boxes of different communities, how to ensure balance, how to unify if the political influence of each region is different, and still remain the same ensuring that Cajamadrid-for example, is just in its social spending with Murcia case to merge with the Fund in Murcia? I believe the management problems worsen.
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Written by Droblo on December 3, 2008 with 294 comments
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Sometimes trying to understand all stock movements forget a maximum fundamental bag move people around the mind very similar to ours. Even the automated programs that are based on volume generated basic psychological patterns. One example: A year ago when someone earning about 5% by buying shares at 14 € Santander had no hurry to sell, saying that the "so what am I gonna do with the money?" Was an upward trend quiet now if it retains a 5% by buying some shares of Santander has € 6 to rush to sell, it seems that burn. This is because volatility creates fear and lack of confidence, it does not matter the price and the action is, in short, is pure psychology.
Because almost all the great masters of the science of money were unable to become millionaires. I do not mean get rich selling textbooks, but speculating. To my knowledge, no more than three workdays speculators in economic history:
Ie, knowledge economy does not make anyone an expert in making money.
However, if psychological patterns can make money. An example:
Some years ago the brothers Hirsch, one of the best companies worldwide search for seasonal patterns, data released that day are not all equal to the hours of trading. The Dow Jones from 1990 to 2006, if you look for each day of the week would have the following entries:
- 6460 points Monday.
- +1615 Tuesday.
- +204 Wednesday.
- -226 Points Thursday.
- -523 Points Friday.
I am not a psychologist, but these data are truly amazing and I can think of two interpretations: the beginning of the week makes us more willing to invest and as we approach the end of the week we want and we spend more on rest and that open markets and give us a quiet activity that does not give us the weekend. I believe that even if markets do not close this pattern will never disappear.
So join the meantime, trading is the best short on Friday to buy and sell closed on Monday. However, if during the weekend is on a world war ... care.
You see? I also have this psychological pattern in mind.
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Written by Droblo on November 19, 2008 with 277 comments
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Niels Bohr was a Danish physicist at which he was named in honor of the chemical element "Bohrio" (BH), a highly unstable isotope which may never see his life as an average of just 0.44 seconds. But we are interested in this man is this great quote:
"Predicting is very difficult, especially if it is about the future."
It is curious that a scientist (one of the few professions in which after much experience can be made reliable prediciones) dares to say what many economists are silent, our inability to know what will happen. But when the forecasts are positive creernoslas and we have more in mind that when they are negative, the most obvious example is the current crisis in their pregnancy hidden by governments and by the media as for ourselves. In fact, in this blog, I cortaypega in early January of information is pessimistic forecasts for this year that passed without penalty or glory for their dye catastrophist.
But this is not new and not go further in 1999 in the stock market boom of technology companies (the famous bubble. Com), was published the book "Dow 100,000 myth or reality" that you can still buy on Amazon, this is a brief summary of what you will.
Many articles in magazines and even books will say that stock markets in the late 90's are in a dangerous bubble. No one can come to know when the crash but many people think we are very close to the next big economic curve. Kadlec, chief investment Seligman Advisors has a different view: the bad things happen now and forever, but the Dow Jones reach 100,000 points in 2020. In other words "two decades of growth above average." This represents only a 11.1% annual growth in the share price, which is completely unrealistic.
We can find similar books written in that year:
Ya see, as were the predictions for nearly 10 years, the markets were going up to infinity and beyond what seemed an auction ... 30,000, 36,000, 40,000 and 100,000. Do not forget, we now have the U.S. stock market (Dow) in 8500. (More ...)
Written by Carlos Lopez on November 18, 2008 with 371 comments
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With a little delay will leave the comment of the week, this time from the hand hyperactive dei ICG
November 14, 2008, at 9:32.
Well, well ... it is Friday!
We are pleased to arrive safely ... one more week.
I say that if these high levels and thieves do not realize what's really happening ... then I will explain! Mr and Mrs that are up there leading the herd (which I am) ... pay attention to what I'm going to say:
The central and basic causes for the slowdown is occurring (a wink and Solbes ZP), crisis, recession, estanflacción, depression ... or as we like to call it, is an easy and simple reason is that ... ... and have gone from Thread! Have missed the last round of the nut ... a time to squeeze and enslaved. Is this the only reason why the cow and no more milk. We have no milk in the teats ... and we do not have good grass-fed ... and now we are skeletal cows.
It's that simple. Consider:
A) If I collect like my father ... and do not give up. Yes!, Ladies and gentlemen, charging the same as my dear father and 20 years have passed. I repeat the same salary after 20 years ...! Given that I am a thousand times better than him (my father was a pastor and then operator of the assembly line ... does not have an elementary school) ... and I, with EGB, ESO, and Baccalaureate degree and I am ... same salary ... (how sad, for God's sake!)
B) If the price of everything has increased by 2, 3, 5 or 10 ... (food, entertainment, restaurants, gasoline, apartments, rent ... and what has not grown ... the CPI has risen at least if clothes, cars, ...)
Well ... ... NOT BLOCK THE ACCOUNTS. I was patatero scratch in their pockets! Yes, yes ... listen zero Zapatero! Not one euro. And I wonder: What I have to revive consumption? Then sit to wait ... because I will ask for another loan ... how?
Economy and so many masters, many advisers and analistos ... .. what!? Please .... ... respondanme economic elites and leaders of the Spanish comedy farce! what?
Here subtraction: if "A" diminishes "B" ... what gives? Well, negative number, the red is not ...? So I say in your language: negative growth numbers ... (slowed or numbers).
So I see it:
YEAR 2008: I join 1,200 euros a month (ie "A") ... and that the monthly concepts of "B" are a whopping 700 rent, $ 100 petrol, 100 of food, such and such ... me ... Yields: -500 euros. I have no NOTHING in their pockets to spend ... on the contrary, the "life" I have to pull your credit card to survive the $ 500 monthly debt.
YEAR 1990: my father entered 200 thousand pesetas (A) ... and that this has had three children, pay rent, car, food and such ... ... this result still saved money !!!!! He envelopes!! (eye! And my father has had a stable job and fixed all his working life ... I, however, garbage contracts, and other agencies guarradas ...)
Now we see more clearly? Eooo ... ... eooo! Lords ruling, employers, entrepreneurs ... ..!!!! eooooo .... where are they? See the accounts? And what I know about the congress and the senate ... .. Empty. Our representatives .... those who sail on our well-being .... as moonlighters and 5 thousand euros monthly deputy fail to month ... do not work as deputies and engage in self-employment or who are also employed. (Please, a little shame and respect for citizens ... to attend parliament. Reclamo compulsory attendance of all deputies and senators to all sessions of both chambers of parliament).
And so, all I can say is that I am Spanish and what I feel: ¡¡¡SHAME! ¡¡¡INDIGNACIÓN! ¡¡¡IMPOTENCE!
The comment has been slightly censored, you have the original here.
Greetings and who are very good weekend ... I'm going to take it, I assure you all.
Written by Carlos Lopez on November 16, 2008 42 comments
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Personal comment.
On Friday, the markets appeared to throw a sense of strength: General Motors touched lows and reported that no government assistance would go to the bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost in both the Dow Jones three days after a presidential election, the SP down together on Wednesday and Thursday is the highest in two days since 1987 and the rebound technical after he was so down-low volume, and could give an explanation and it was feared an exception to the weekly trend. The large package of measures the Chinese government of the weekend (from $ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, which would be another and a few cartridges) extended this feeling positive in Asia and Europe on Monday morning with the exception of Ibex. There's no joy until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on October 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Sáez, denied need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, shared ABN assets, Cepsa, the fund management and insurance, the price demanded. In short, he has bought unsold before and now has met with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and expanding it is costing all shareholders million in market capitalization euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis only: no matter how much lower interest rates, including EURIBOR, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or attempts to capture new ones. Santander can do that, but how many companies can do the same, how much funding will get lower rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shading on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
The other is the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar at other times we have seen much worse economic data and if the figures do not even the bank bad debt is still worrying (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As shown in the figures economic cycles have been more desperate, it might be a cyclical crisis and give more reason to feel optimistic that you can leave it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without this condition will worsen and data, as we have seen this week, the suspension of payments that began in financial, banking and then went on to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is destroying the economy and stock markets, the beneficial effect of lower interest rates. If we add to that the fact that I said the need to sell assets in order to have lost value of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity now is one of the greatest obstacles to the upward trend since it is one of the few markets to draw cash if needed, even at the level of citizens is even easier to sell shares to lose a lot to try to sell another property. As positive aspects of this bad stock weeks, two factors: the low volume decreases (although it can also mean that we remain far from the capitulation later also from the ground) and the finding of the telecoms sector as a safe-to-date available. Now we have to have faith in the famous reunion this weekend but particularly in the aspect I have more faith in market potential manipulation bullish next Friday 21 expiration of the effect of some future (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next weeks is a very friendly bags.
Finally, it is very important, despite the rebound yesterday afternoon, falling crude oil (although the effect of the weak € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable), gas natural and, in general, all the raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive because it's getting the bags in many economies where there is much money ... the most important example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials and lower-stop-confident person to make a speculation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)
Written by Droblo on November 14, 2008 with 337 comments
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The other day I read that the figure that the U.S. state is being spent on trying to resolve the financial crisis is already 2.7 billion dollars, and that in a country that even before all this and much needed money. He also knew the number of jobs: 524 thousand new unemployed in two months. And I looked for information on the actual situation of finance USA. Let a couple of numbers and put all the zeros, that more than one trillion translates as billions and trillions when we lees and I had to document only American websites:
- On November 11 days to 09.14, the debt is U.S. $ 10.635.794.969.002 amount that increases second to second, and in fact there is a ticking clock that will (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki / National_Debt_Clock) and discussed here not long ago that going from 9 to 10 billion had to fix it. Currently increases 500.000.000.000 month since October, a figure that is expected to increase sharply reduced because it is what they grew on average annually since 2003. In September, the U.S. government extended, very appropriately, the limit of debt from 10.6 trillion to 11.3 but it seems that it fell short in 2009
- The estimated GDP for 2007 is U.S. 13,800,000,000,000, then the current debt is around 75% of GDP and it seems to get worse closer to 90% just by increasing the debt, if we also take into that GDP may actually be reduced if there is recession, this could be even worse. The highs are not as shown in the chart but we must remember that only exceeded 100% due to World War:
However, many countries are worse off and for years (from the "big" Japan is close to 200%, and in Italy, Belgium and Greece around 100%) the big problem is that this is only the debt State which is a fraction of the total debt of banks, families and American businesses is estimated that approximately 50,000,000,000,000, nearly 5 times more than the public and more than 3 times the entire GDP. In Spain, where we have this feeling of total debt private debt is double the GDP. (More ...)
Written by Droblo on November 11, 2008 with 243 comments
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