I recall with some nostalgia the time when the economy was only manage 500 pesetas a week I gave my parents to spend the week. I gave the Friday and the first thing we did was go to the candy store, I spent 100 pesetas in candy and returned home to comérmelas while watching the program "Al Ataque" Alfonso Arús. One of the most brilliant imitations made by the presenter, was Jose Velez (PEPE GAFE), with those giant yellow glasses. Singer home Canario who was given the power to gafar played everything was caricatured as the king of gafe week after week. It is said in the audio-visual world that the presence of Jose Velez was set at any omen of all sorts of bugs.
In real life, the fate should be cultivated, if acted responsibly and planning, probably a problem, you will succeed and people will say that I have had small fortune, but the fate that often gives a boost to those who have cultivated to reach the ground. Similarly, bad luck can also be removed from our lives using our head a little.
Let's see the example of those who lament that they will review the latest Euribor high before falling these days, which is expected to remain a good season.
Flat funded 100% of the valuation is in line with its purchase price, he or the buyer / s costs were saved for deeds, taxes, etc ...
Data calculation:
Floor Price € 240,000
Initial capital funding: € 240,000
Term: 30 years
Differential: 0.75%
Signature: 1 November 2003
Last published in Euribor BOE (October 20) 2258% (half September)
Successive revisions:
| September | Euribor |
| 2003 | 2.258 |
| 2004 | 2.377 |
| 2005 | 2.220 |
| 2006 | 3.715 |
| 2007 | 4.725 |
| 2008 | 5.384 |
Shares after each review.
| Date | Euribor | Fee |
| December | 2003 | 2.258% | 1.007,62 |
| December | 2004 | 2.377% | 1.022,21 |
| December | 2005 | 2.220% | 1.003,54 |
| December | 2006 | 3.715% | 1.182,12 |
| December | 2007 | 4.725% | 1.306,29 |
| December | 2008 | 5.384% | 1.387,61 |
It is clear that the increase rate mortgage has increased quotas by almost 40% in 5 years, but we must accept it because that is what the rates are variable, but now that it seems that the Euribor curve starts to fall despite It will continue to pay the Euribor September (5384%) when December 1 will be below 4.30%, the subject can take two positions:
1 .- To a giant yellow glasses and say "THAT BAD LUCK!"
2 .- To take in the matter and espabilarse. If we want to implement the November Euribor must sign a new mortgage between December 21 and January 20, and that we go.
It is said that today the banks do not want mortgages, and this is false, the banks want to know anything bad mortgages (over 70% of the current valuation, shares representing above 35%%, etc ...). What they want are good mortgages, and mortgages are killed for stealing good competition. A few days ago, I received an e-mail the following offer: (Do not put the entity because they pay for it, but that more than one bank is a game of "good")
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Written by Oriolrc on November 24, 2008 with 321 comments
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Sometimes trying to understand all stock movements forget a maximum fundamental bag move people around the mind very similar to ours. Even the automated programs that are based on volume generated basic psychological patterns. One example: A year ago when someone earning about 5% by buying shares at 14 € Santander had no hurry to sell, saying that the "so what am I gonna do with the money?" Was an upward trend quiet now if it retains a 5% by buying some shares of Santander has € 6 to rush to sell, it seems that burn. This is because volatility creates fear and lack of confidence, it does not matter the price and the action is, in short, is pure psychology.
Because almost all the great masters of the science of money were unable to become millionaires. I do not mean get rich selling textbooks, but speculating. To my knowledge, no more than three workdays speculators in economic history:
Ie, knowledge economy does not make anyone an expert in making money.
However, if psychological patterns can make money. An example:
Some years ago the brothers Hirsch, one of the best companies worldwide search for seasonal patterns, data released that day are not all equal to the hours of trading. The Dow Jones from 1990 to 2006, if you look for each day of the week would have the following entries:
- 6460 points Monday.
- +1615 Tuesday.
- +204 Wednesday.
- -226 Points Thursday.
- -523 Points Friday.
I am not a psychologist, but these data are truly amazing and I can think of two interpretations: the beginning of the week makes us more willing to invest and as we approach the end of the week we want and we spend more on rest and that open markets and give us a quiet activity that does not give us the weekend. I believe that even if markets do not close this pattern will never disappear.
So join the meantime, trading is the best short on Friday to buy and sell closed on Monday. However, if during the weekend is on a world war ... care.
You see? I also have this psychological pattern in mind.
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Written by Droblo on November 19, 2008 with 277 comments
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With a little delay will leave the comment of the week, this time from the hand hyperactive dei ICG
November 14, 2008, at 9:32.
Well, well ... it is Friday!
We are pleased to arrive safely ... one more week.
I say that if these high levels and thieves do not realize what's really happening ... then I will explain! Mr and Mrs that are up there leading the herd (which I am) ... pay attention to what I'm going to say:
The central and basic causes for the slowdown is occurring (a wink and Solbes ZP), crisis, recession, estanflacción, depression ... or as we like to call it, is an easy and simple reason is that ... ... and have gone from Thread! Have missed the last round of the nut ... a time to squeeze and enslaved. Is this the only reason why the cow and no more milk. We have no milk in the teats ... and we do not have good grass-fed ... and now we are skeletal cows.
It's that simple. Consider:
A) If I collect like my father ... and do not give up. Yes!, Ladies and gentlemen, charging the same as my dear father and 20 years have passed. I repeat the same salary after 20 years ...! Given that I am a thousand times better than him (my father was a pastor and then operator of the assembly line ... does not have an elementary school) ... and I, with EGB, ESO, and Baccalaureate degree and I am ... same salary ... (how sad, for God's sake!)
B) If the price of everything has increased by 2, 3, 5 or 10 ... (food, entertainment, restaurants, gasoline, apartments, rent ... and what has not grown ... the CPI has risen at least if clothes, cars, ...)
Well ... ... NOT BLOCK THE ACCOUNTS. I was patatero scratch in their pockets! Yes, yes ... listen zero Zapatero! Not one euro. And I wonder: What I have to revive consumption? Then sit to wait ... because I will ask for another loan ... how?
Economy and so many masters, many advisers and analistos ... .. what!? Please .... ... respondanme economic elites and leaders of the Spanish comedy farce! what?
Here subtraction: if "A" diminishes "B" ... what gives? Well, negative number, the red is not ...? So I say in your language: negative growth numbers ... (slowed or numbers).
So I see it:
YEAR 2008: I join 1,200 euros a month (ie "A") ... and that the monthly concepts of "B" are a whopping 700 rent, $ 100 petrol, 100 of food, such and such ... me ... Yields: -500 euros. I have no NOTHING in their pockets to spend ... on the contrary, the "life" I have to pull your credit card to survive the $ 500 monthly debt.
YEAR 1990: my father entered 200 thousand pesetas (A) ... and that this has had three children, pay rent, car, food and such ... ... this result still saved money !!!!! He envelopes!! (eye! And my father has had a stable job and fixed all his working life ... I, however, garbage contracts, and other agencies guarradas ...)
Now we see more clearly? Eooo ... ... eooo! Lords ruling, employers, entrepreneurs ... ..!!!! eooooo .... where are they? See the accounts? And what I know about the congress and the senate ... .. Empty. Our representatives .... those who sail on our well-being .... as moonlighters and 5 thousand euros monthly deputy fail to month ... do not work as deputies and engage in self-employment or who are also employed. (Please, a little shame and respect for citizens ... to attend parliament. Reclamo compulsory attendance of all deputies and senators to all sessions of both chambers of parliament).
And so, all I can say is that I am Spanish and what I feel: ¡¡¡SHAME! ¡¡¡INDIGNACIÓN! ¡¡¡IMPOTENCE!
The comment has been slightly censored, you have the original here.
Greetings and who are very good weekend ... I'm going to take it, I assure you all.
Written by Carlos Lopez on November 16, 2008 42 comments
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Personal comment.
On Friday, the markets appeared to throw a sense of strength: General Motors touched lows and reported that no government assistance would go to the bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost in both the Dow Jones three days after a presidential election, the SP down together on Wednesday and Thursday is the highest in two days since 1987 and the rebound technical after he was so down-low volume, and could give an explanation and it was feared an exception to the weekly trend. The large package of measures the Chinese government of the weekend (from $ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, which would be another and a few cartridges) extended this feeling positive in Asia and Europe on Monday morning with the exception of Ibex. There's no joy until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on October 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Sáez, denied need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, shared ABN assets, Cepsa, the fund management and insurance, the price demanded. In short, he has bought unsold before and now has met with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and expanding it is costing all shareholders million in market capitalization euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis only: no matter how much lower interest rates, including EURIBOR, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or attempts to capture new ones. Santander can do that, but how many companies can do the same, how much funding will get lower rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shading on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
The other is the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar at other times we have seen much worse economic data and if the figures do not even the bank bad debt is still worrying (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As shown in the figures economic cycles have been more desperate, it might be a cyclical crisis and give more reason to feel optimistic that you can leave it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without this condition will worsen and data, as we have seen this week, the suspension of payments that began in financial, banking and then went on to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is destroying the economy and stock markets, the beneficial effect of lower interest rates. If we add to that the fact that I said the need to sell assets in order to have lost value of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity now is one of the greatest obstacles to the upward trend since it is one of the few markets to draw cash if needed, even at the level of citizens is even easier to sell shares to lose a lot to try to sell another property. As positive aspects of this bad stock weeks, two factors: the low volume decreases (although it can also mean that we remain far from the capitulation later also from the ground) and the finding of the telecoms sector as a safe-to-date available. Now we have to have faith in the famous reunion this weekend but particularly in the aspect I have more faith in market potential manipulation bullish next Friday 21 expiration of the effect of some future (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next weeks is a very friendly bags.
Finally, it is very important, despite the rebound yesterday afternoon, falling crude oil (although the effect of the weak € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable), gas natural and, in general, all the raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive because it's getting the bags in many economies where there is much money ... the most important example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials and lower-stop-confident person to make a speculation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)
Written by Droblo on November 14, 2008 with 337 comments
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Since he is no longer the "gold standard" and a ticket does not represent anything physical but simply faith in the issuer has formalized the old adage that says the economy is based on trust. While there is confidence the economy may be good but there are points "dark." Why? Because if consumers and businesses and banks to create a good future, spend, invest and provide and this will generate well-paying jobs so the virtuous circle will continue to operate and continue to spend, invest and banks to finance projects future.
For the trust do not miss the speeches of political and economic are mostly reassuring because if you lose falling economic growth and enter a vicious circle: consumers do not spend, companies earn less and reduce their investment and banks because they get the credit delinquencies increased. The order may be reversed as is happening with the current crisis: banks reducing credit to the outbreak of the housing bubble and late payment by bad investments, under the credit to businesses and consumers, scared by all this, spending less and therefore less to buy companies that reduce their profits and, ultimately, generate unemployment. Besides the problem in society that this generates, it is evident that if unemployment rises and companies and banks earn less income is lower because of the administration are paid less taxes while increasing spending on social needs.
All this is very basic and there is nothing original but a factor that can undermine trust and that usually goes unnoticed: the veracity of official data. Not because they are true or not, but for how to calculate them. And it would take pages to explain how such industrial orders data is distorted USA orders each month with government war machine or the management of the Department of Labor with the monthly employment data ... there are many examples. However, one of the most striking to me is the calculation of the CPI.
Take the example of Spain, whose CPI in 2007 was 4.2%, which should mean that average prices rose by 4.2% but it is clear that a television, for example, do not shop every week or even every year but the milk (which rose 31%) is almost daily, or bread (+14%) and fuels (+16.2%). Some say that the perception of these costs-to-be everyday makes us believe that inflation is higher than what it is but I think that is the weighting system which is not fair.
How is it possible that when home prices rose an annual 30% inflation was only 3% if half of the household budget is going to pay your own? Let us go further: In the 20s, share prices in the U.S. rose an average of 3.5 times in five years, but prices of consumer goods did not vary significantly. Should we conclude that there was no inflation? Why? Why exclude the inflation rates, for no reason, financial assets? If low interest rates we had in Spain in recent years have afluido, rather than mortgage credit, to consumer credit, the CPI would have fired (instead of housing prices) and it would have suffered Official inflation.
Current weights based 2001 and adjusted slightly each year. The latest data available are these:
| Groups | CPI, base 2001
2002 weights | CPI, base 2001
2003 weights | CPI, base 2001
Weights 2004-2005 | CPI, base 2001
2006 weights |
| 01. Food and non-alcoholic beverages | 21.86 | 21.93 | 22.60 | 22.28 |
| 02. Alcoholic and snuff | 3.22 | 3.18 | 3.17 | 3.07 |
| 03. Clothing and footwear | 9.93 | 9.90 | 9.73 | 9.25 |
| 04. Housing | 11.03 | 10.68 | 10.69 | 10.71 |
| | | | |
| 05. Tableware | 6.36 | 6.41 | 6.41 | 6.17 |
| 06. Medicine | 2.81 | 2.75 | 2.68 | 2.72 |
| 07. Shipping | 15.58 | 15.32 | 14.40 | 14.91 |
| 08. Communications | 2.57 | 2.73 | 2.99 | 3.28 |
| | | | |
| 09. Leisure and culture | 6.73 | 6.83 | 6.76 | 6.78 |
| 10. Teaching | 1.74 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.68 |
| 11. Hotels, cafes and restaurants | 11.27 | 11.18 | 11.23 | 11.45 |
| 12. Other goods and services | 6.91 | 7.39 | 7.39 | 7.72 |
| | | | |
| TOTAL | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
With these data we can see that inflation affects the poorest who are based mainly in their first paragraph.
Now that every reader see if this table is in line with their charges and found that this calculation is very similar in all countries around us, is very subjective ... But, as we believe the data and back to the issue of confidence - everything will be fine and we accept that our salaries and pensions go up each year, the official CPI and so we think that we do not lose purchasing power.
This official website you can calculate how much the CPI has risen from official dates (data from 1961):
PD - Still others are doing worse, look at the figures of the country most inflationary in the world:
Press Summary:
Written by Droblo on November 13, 2008 with 428 comments
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The Springfield Nuclear Power Plant where Homer works, shows us an excellent opportunity to discuss the monopolies and competition.
In this monopoly, it has been primarily by two factors. First by the high barriers to entry (not exactly cheap to build a nuclear plant and will need several decades to be paid off) and second because there are no substitutes (for Springfield have total dependence on electricity produced by the plant).
In one of the best episodes of the Simpsons (who shot Mr. Burns, Part 1). Montgomery Burns, the owner of the nuclear learns that one of the substitutes for the electric light was threatening its dominant position by buying and solves the competition:
Smithers: Well, sir, certainly has defeated all his enemies: the school, tavern, residence for the elderly ... should be very proud.
Burns: [looking at the money from his wallet] No, not while my great nemesis continue offering our customers free light, heat and energy. I call this enemy ... The Sun since the beginning of time man has yearned to destroy the sun. Siguiete ... And I will block it.
Smithers: Very good!
Bums: Imagine, Smithers: Electricity and heating power running all day
Smithers: But sir! All plants and trees will die, we no longer deaf owls ... and the sundial of the people will be useless. I do not want to be part of this project is inconceivably evil.
Monopolies are not always as excessive, dangerous and unfair. Sometimes it is more of a company with the creation of a "cartel". One of the best known is made up of the major OPEC oil-exporting countries (75% control of oil reserves) which will cut production enough to cause a price increase. That is the basis of a monopoly, its ability to influence the price of goods.
Sometimes monopolies are simply make good business, as was the case of the agreement between Google and Yahoo! finally broke last week because of the pressures that were legal. Another good example was the aggressive distribution strategy from Microsoft that led to the European courts for more than 10 years.
In the interbank, there is no monopoly, but sometimes I feel that act as a cartel What is not explained whether the Euribor is marking a difference with respect to such a high official price of money?. Remember that the official price money in Europe is at 3.25%, we are talking about a differential of more than 1.25%. The number of operations recently in the interbank cross is so low that if a few banks are able to agree the value of the top Euribor above its natural value. (more ...)
Written by Carlos Lopez on November 12, 2008 with 291 comments
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