Sometimes trying to understand all stock movements forget a maximum fundamental bag move people around the mind very similar to ours. Even the automated programs that are based on volume generated basic psychological patterns. One example: A year ago when someone earning about 5% by buying shares at 14 € Santander had no hurry to sell, saying that the "so what am I gonna do with the money?" Was an upward trend quiet now if it retains a 5% by buying some shares of Santander has € 6 to rush to sell, it seems that burn. This is because volatility creates fear and lack of confidence, it does not matter the price and the action is, in short, is pure psychology.
Because almost all the great masters of the science of money were unable to become millionaires. I do not mean get rich selling textbooks, but speculating. To my knowledge, no more than three workdays speculators in economic history:
Ie, knowledge economy does not make anyone an expert in making money.
However, if psychological patterns can make money. An example:
Some years ago the brothers Hirsch, one of the best companies worldwide search for seasonal patterns, data released that day are not all equal to the hours of trading. The Dow Jones from 1990 to 2006, if you look for each day of the week would have the following entries:
- 6460 points Monday.
- +1615 Tuesday.
- +204 Wednesday.
- -226 Points Thursday.
- -523 Points Friday.
I am not a psychologist, but these data are truly amazing and I can think of two interpretations: the beginning of the week makes us more willing to invest and as we approach the end of the week we want and we spend more on rest and that open markets and give us a quiet activity that does not give us the weekend. I believe that even if markets do not close this pattern will never disappear.
So join the meantime, trading is the best short on Friday to buy and sell closed on Monday. However, if during the weekend is on a world war ... care.
You see? I also have this psychological pattern in mind.
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Written by Droblo on November 19, 2008 with 277 comments
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With a little delay will leave the comment of the week, this time from the hand hyperactive dei ICG
November 14, 2008, at 9:32.
Well, well ... it is Friday!
We are pleased to arrive safely ... one more week.
I say that if these high levels and thieves do not realize what's really happening ... then I will explain! Mr and Mrs that are up there leading the herd (which I am) ... pay attention to what I'm going to say:
The central and basic causes for the slowdown is occurring (a wink and Solbes ZP), crisis, recession, estanflacción, depression ... or as we like to call it, is an easy and simple reason is that ... ... and have gone from Thread! Have missed the last round of the nut ... a time to squeeze and enslaved. Is this the only reason why the cow and no more milk. We have no milk in the teats ... and we do not have good grass-fed ... and now we are skeletal cows.
It's that simple. Consider:
A) If I collect like my father ... and do not give up. Yes!, Ladies and gentlemen, charging the same as my dear father and 20 years have passed. I repeat the same salary after 20 years ...! Given that I am a thousand times better than him (my father was a pastor and then operator of the assembly line ... does not have an elementary school) ... and I, with EGB, ESO, and Baccalaureate degree and I am ... same salary ... (how sad, for God's sake!)
B) If the price of everything has increased by 2, 3, 5 or 10 ... (food, entertainment, restaurants, gasoline, apartments, rent ... and what has not grown ... the CPI has risen at least if clothes, cars, ...)
Well ... ... NOT BLOCK THE ACCOUNTS. I was patatero scratch in their pockets! Yes, yes ... listen zero Zapatero! Not one euro. And I wonder: What I have to revive consumption? Then sit to wait ... because I will ask for another loan ... how?
Economy and so many masters, many advisers and analistos ... .. what!? Please .... ... respondanme economic elites and leaders of the Spanish comedy farce! what?
Here subtraction: if "A" diminishes "B" ... what gives? Well, negative number, the red is not ...? So I say in your language: negative growth numbers ... (slowed or numbers).
So I see it:
YEAR 2008: I join 1,200 euros a month (ie "A") ... and that the monthly concepts of "B" are a whopping 700 rent, $ 100 petrol, 100 of food, such and such ... me ... Yields: -500 euros. I have no NOTHING in their pockets to spend ... on the contrary, the "life" I have to pull your credit card to survive the $ 500 monthly debt.
YEAR 1990: my father entered 200 thousand pesetas (A) ... and that this has had three children, pay rent, car, food and such ... ... this result still saved money !!!!! He envelopes!! (eye! And my father has had a stable job and fixed all his working life ... I, however, garbage contracts, and other agencies guarradas ...)
Now we see more clearly? Eooo ... ... eooo! Lords ruling, employers, entrepreneurs ... ..!!!! eooooo .... where are they? See the accounts? And what I know about the congress and the senate ... .. Empty. Our representatives .... those who sail on our well-being .... as moonlighters and 5 thousand euros monthly deputy fail to month ... do not work as deputies and engage in self-employment or who are also employed. (Please, a little shame and respect for citizens ... to attend parliament. Reclamo compulsory attendance of all deputies and senators to all sessions of both chambers of parliament).
And so, all I can say is that I am Spanish and what I feel: ¡¡¡SHAME! ¡¡¡INDIGNACIÓN! ¡¡¡IMPOTENCE!
The comment has been slightly censored, you have the original here.
Greetings and who are very good weekend ... I'm going to take it, I assure you all.
Written by Carlos Lopez on November 16, 2008 42 comments
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Personal comment.
On Friday, the markets appeared to throw a sense of strength: General Motors touched lows and reported that no government assistance would go to the bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost in both the Dow Jones three days after a presidential election, the SP down together on Wednesday and Thursday is the highest in two days since 1987 and the rebound technical after he was so down-low volume, and could give an explanation and it was feared an exception to the weekly trend. The large package of measures the Chinese government of the weekend (from $ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, which would be another and a few cartridges) extended this feeling positive in Asia and Europe on Monday morning with the exception of Ibex. There's no joy until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.
The bank Santander on October 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Sáez, denied need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, shared ABN assets, Cepsa, the fund management and insurance, the price demanded. In short, he has bought unsold before and now has met with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and expanding it is costing all shareholders million in market capitalization euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis only: no matter how much lower interest rates, including EURIBOR, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or attempts to capture new ones. Santander can do that, but how many companies can do the same, how much funding will get lower rates?
I attached two charts USA, with shading on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%
The other is the ISM manufacturing index:
In Spain the situation is similar at other times we have seen much worse economic data and if the figures do not even the bank bad debt is still worrying (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As shown in the figures economic cycles have been more desperate, it might be a cyclical crisis and give more reason to feel optimistic that you can leave it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without this condition will worsen and data, as we have seen this week, the suspension of payments that began in financial, banking and then went on to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.
And that perception is destroying the economy and stock markets, the beneficial effect of lower interest rates. If we add to that the fact that I said the need to sell assets in order to have lost value of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity now is one of the greatest obstacles to the upward trend since it is one of the few markets to draw cash if needed, even at the level of citizens is even easier to sell shares to lose a lot to try to sell another property. As positive aspects of this bad stock weeks, two factors: the low volume decreases (although it can also mean that we remain far from the capitulation later also from the ground) and the finding of the telecoms sector as a safe-to-date available. Now we have to have faith in the famous reunion this weekend but particularly in the aspect I have more faith in market potential manipulation bullish next Friday 21 expiration of the effect of some future (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next weeks is a very friendly bags.
Finally, it is very important, despite the rebound yesterday afternoon, falling crude oil (although the effect of the weak € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable), gas natural and, in general, all the raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive because it's getting the bags in many economies where there is much money ... the most important example is Russia. You may see manipulative maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials and lower-stop-confident person to make a speculation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)
Written by Droblo on November 14, 2008 with 337 comments
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The other day I read that the figure that the U.S. state is being spent on trying to resolve the financial crisis is already 2.7 billion dollars, and that in a country that even before all this and much needed money. He also knew the number of jobs: 524 thousand new unemployed in two months. And I looked for information on the actual situation of finance USA. Let a couple of numbers and put all the zeros, that more than one trillion translates as billions and trillions when we lees and I had to document only American websites:
- On November 11 days to 09.14, the debt is U.S. $ 10.635.794.969.002 amount that increases second to second, and in fact there is a ticking clock that will (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki / National_Debt_Clock) and discussed here not long ago that going from 9 to 10 billion had to fix it. Currently increases 500.000.000.000 month since October, a figure that is expected to increase sharply reduced because it is what they grew on average annually since 2003. In September, the U.S. government extended, very appropriately, the limit of debt from 10.6 trillion to 11.3 but it seems that it fell short in 2009
- The estimated GDP for 2007 is U.S. 13,800,000,000,000, then the current debt is around 75% of GDP and it seems to get worse closer to 90% just by increasing the debt, if we also take into that GDP may actually be reduced if there is recession, this could be even worse. The highs are not as shown in the chart but we must remember that only exceeded 100% due to World War:
However, many countries are worse off and for years (from the "big" Japan is close to 200%, and in Italy, Belgium and Greece around 100%) the big problem is that this is only the debt State which is a fraction of the total debt of banks, families and American businesses is estimated that approximately 50,000,000,000,000, nearly 5 times more than the public and more than 3 times the entire GDP. In Spain, where we have this feeling of total debt private debt is double the GDP. (More ...)
Written by Droblo on November 11, 2008 with 243 comments
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One of the greatest unsolved mysteries of criminology English was the identity of the famous Jack The Ripper, since we are among the suspected members of the British royal family, the doctor of Queen Victoria, a young lawyer, a businessman Liverpool, a Jew and a psychotic Impressionist painter.
Fortunately, 6 years ago the writer of mystery novels by Patricia Cornwell, did not have anything else to do and decided to invest 4 million dollars to conclude that the notorious murderer was Walter Richard Sickert, 28, a prestigious painter of the time.
Patricia had the patience to buy up to 30 pictures of the artist and analyzed for traces of DNA but is not that painting is a good preservative. However, the writer did not give up and finally after a long search, he found it in a letter to his wife (you know, not the language you use to paste on a) which coincided with the genetic material of the murderer.
Without doubt, Jack was a guy who liked to go for parties and on the blog here we have our professional Ripper, whose victim today, is the mortgage. So I switch to the article written by Oriol.
Today I wish to comment on how the shares of a mortgage for a little awareness of the pros and cons of the government's proposal to help the unemployed postponed for two years 50% share foreclosure.
The mortgage is a repayment of capital. Each payment is broken down into a part of a separate interest and repayment of the nominal. Be clear that each installment is paid interest on what has been given during the last period. Or what is paid this month, or on the original debt. The structure of the payments may have several forms, but I will focus on two, the simplest and most common, and this will put an example with the following information:
Capital: € 180,000
Fees: 360 (30 years)
Interest: 5% (assuming fixed, because it is conceptually the same)
Monthly interest: 0.416667%
1 .- Amortization of capital
This system is not used but it is usually the most simple and we will see clearly as it accrues interest. In this case, the party to repay each share is constant, so the duty less money, there is less interest burden and the share is declining.
In the period "0" give us money, so there are still 180,000 €.
In the period "1" pay the first installment. The share capital is repaid in 500 € (180.000/360) and interest costs are due to be € 180,000 over a period (one month in our case), with an annual rate of 5% (monthly would be 0.41667%. Interest is then 750 € (180,000 x 0.0041667). After paying the first fee of 1250 € (500 +750 = capital + interest) I € 179,500 to the bank, so that the interests of the following fee is calculated on this new amount of debt. 747.92 (slightly less than before because I have less), and then share the remaining € 1247.92 (capital + interest) and so on. (See table)
He noted that in recent assessments, the stakes are low and falling, for example in the past, due to be € 500 a month. The shares are also lower for the same reason.
2 .- Quota System constant or French.
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Oriol written by Carlos and the November 10, 2008 with 278 comments
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Personal comment.
After the miracle that was expected (and confirmed) this week, which is called a black Hussein Obama and get to the president of USA (another miracle will do so well), I received news of the aid of our government the mortgage and I thought if there were any other one this week and the government have gone from here when called for direct aid to the people. But I fear not the case: the government decided to deny the crisis first and then support the bank with a series of measures hardly justifiable to the alleged strength of our financial sector. Now that results have boxes and banks and profits have continued to be astronomical (if they are not imply that aid has not been a change in transparency, any entity which is still missing in Spain this loss when it is stronger in other countries that we) decided to "help" directly to certain mortgage helping them go through this downturn. But once again become a more aid for banks to citizens. I think the forum has already been felt all of opinion on this issue and I must say that very sharply so I just want to emphasize again that the prevailing idea is something like: "We are in the worst of the crisis, the guarantee deposits until 2010 and help the mortgage and two years later with the revival that will all be fine, "What will happen if those unemployed after a moratorium of two years can not find work? For that there is no answer.
Of course it is desirable that all this is more a cyclical rough patch but for the moment this seems far removed from reality. The figures continue to worsen every week and what is valued as improvement after adjustments may simply be a very sharp. Look at this original graphic where we can see how it appears the tendency of banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve is changing, but if we compare with other periods in which not even need to resort to EDF, it is easy to appreciate the level of banking crisis the USA and alejadísimo that this is settled:
I do not see any signs to believe that this crisis will last only a few months. E insist not confuse the stock market (which may well bounce for a few weeks as he was bounced a few days) with the real economy. The macro data are disastrous, unreservedly and hope that the discount-rate change can be justified or not, just realized for many months, and that if it lowers the credit drives. If not, only reduce the benefits of saving activity without encouraging investors. The worst thing is that the states are running out of room for maneuver in Spain itself has acknowledged Solbes (http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Solbes/dice/habra/recursos/afrontar/crisis/elpepueco / 20081105elpepieco_6/Tes)
Turning to the bag, the idea of "This is a bump, a historic opportunity to buy, but months back upward path" is being installed. And yet this week (except in Europe, Thursday-closed flat Thursday, with some other better and worse) has to have a negative balance. And what if we look at the percentage increase since we have been minimal, the drop is notable because it was very abrupt. And they met the upward trend in November and rise up to (Tuesday) after a day of low volatility (Monday). But even with the help of central banks has been with the resistance that led commenting two weeks ago and is still stuck in a dangerous area. The Dax rose well above the 5000 but was unable to keep the SP and the arrival in 1000 was the perfect excuse to very aggressive sales. The Dow and the Ibex or have approached the 10 mil ...
The fear is still there and as we saw on Wednesday that although statistically the markets work better on the day following the victory of a Republican than a Democrat is that the truth should have been positive expectations were met and there were no surprises, but these recent weeks about buying the rumor and sell the news is becoming a habit and this caused deep bass movement. As I said last week, while there is calm but rising threat falls in there in a hurry to sell. And he has returned to fulfill. However, I detect many voices that speak of buying in the fall of the year-end rally is possible .... I remain neutral and envy it is clear that at these levels because I keep seeing danger to both sides. Today we know the data of unemployment last month and is feared to be disastrous, more than -200 thousand. As you recall that statistical curiosity was not so bad a figure since March 2003, just months in the death of the previous bearish trend upward and eventually began in fall 2007.
And what about the Euribor, a point: that is truly novel now has one year deposits in financial institutions and which are due before 2010 and thus are guaranteed by the state, giving a return similar to the cost of a mortgage. I think that an abnormality is corrected when the 2009 and not much need for liquidity to match balance at the end of the year. The Euribor rate comparing with a year to 14 days of intervention by the ECB should better compare the profitability offered by your bank to a year and what it pays in the same mortgage bank and verify that the differential is not so much . Not to defend the banks with this, just describe a reality, the battle to capture liability is so great that the difference between what a customer receives money and what they must pay money for a mortgage is minimal. One consolation: yesterday in U.S. rates were at 1% and 12 months at LIBOR 2.84 (a 184% increase), here have andalusia 3.25 and Euribor 12 months to 4.70 (a 44.62% increase). But still could be much worse ...
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Written by Droblo on November 7, 2008 with 297 comments
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