The black money, persecuted or protected?

The black money is one that is not controlled by the authorities and may come either from legal activities (the lower volume, usually occurs when writing a retail value of the house that really is negotiated or when not declared an income for rent etc.y that is the easiest is detected) or illegal activities, the more damage it does, both the Treasury, because the volume is huge defraudatorio as by the social implications of this illegal activity.

Outside of those two groups have prostitution in most cases is simply a labor-droit (non-regulated), but it moves a huge amount of money that escapes the treasury (18,000 million € per year) and which is known for and all accepted. I wonder, why? If it is known that some people have an income for work they do, why not pay? And we entered the hypocrisy of the obvious and the laws recaudatorias so obvious to social security, contracts and even the very existence of something that seems to many like the inconvenience that some people rent out their bodies to others for a limited time .

But the most serious cases are those that encompass the black money from the trafficking in women, weapons, drugs, business-screen that never pay taxes, terrorism and so on. All these crimes and generate some more money, mostly, we know where he is. And yet we continue to prefer to pursue the camel neighborhood or the owner of the Puti-club before tackling the root of the problem. I speak of course of tax havens.

These are areas (sometimes country, sometimes not) to protect the identity of companies that have and / or bank accounts there. It is clear that the companies that have and / or bank accounts in a tax seeks to conceal something the treasury of his country. We all know and the authorities also know it. And we should not go too far because there are even within the European Union but outside its jurisdiction as is the case of 1 Gibraltar as a British territory (in this page you can view the list of tax havens).

Why are allowed to have sites where they can escape the capital that would do much good in their respective countries is something we do not know but it is terribly unjust punishment to those who suffer because of our lawful activity and to charge for payroll, we ultravigilados by the Treasury. However, apart from the actual crime prosecutor, the most serious and most sad and, of course, the most hypocritical, is that they permit, and that if such havens exist and could not have control of large flows of money move in the world, it would be much easier to break the networks of illegal activity. Drug trafficking, as we understand it at present, would disappear, the money diverted to terrorist groups were quickly discover, that is, win in the economic, social, in politics ... not only increase the income of tax, disappear entire networks of subversive activities.

Thus, there is no excuse. Why wait?

PD - In this official liaison USA month to month we can see the source of the money flows abroad to invest in assets that country. It is very interesting in itself but what is most striking is so high because they receive the "Caribbean bankings" (obviously tax havens where many Americans have their capital to invest in assets without paying taxes for the Treasury of his country)

Droblo written by the November 26, 2008 with 336 reviews
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Guessing the future

Niels Bohr was a physique Danes to which he was in his honor on behalf of the chemical element "Bohrio" (Bh), a highly unstable isotope which may never see it because its half-life is just 0.44 seconds. But what interests us from this man is this great quote:

"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future."

It is curious that a scientist (one of the few professions in which after much experience can be made reliable prediciones) dares to say what many economists are silent, our inability to know what will happen. But when the forecasts are positive and we creernoslas are more aware that when they are negative, the most obvious example is the current crisis hidden in its gestation both by Governments and by the media as for ourselves. In fact, in this very blog I cortaypega in early January about a pelín pessimistic forecasts for this year that passed without penalty or glory for his catastrophist dye.

But this is not new and not go further in 1999 in the stock market boom of technology companies (the famous bubble. Com), was published the book "Dow 100,000 myth or reality" that you can still buy on Amazon, this is a short summary of what is going.

Many magazine articles and even books tell you that the stock markets by the end of the 90 are in a dangerous bubble. No one can know when will the crash but many people think we're very close to the next big economic curve. Kadlec, chief investment Seligman Advisors has a different point of view: the bad things happen now and forever, but the Dow Jones will reach 100,000 points in 2020. In other words "two decades of growth above average." This represents only a 11.1% annual growth in the share price, which is completely unrealistic.

We can find similar books written that year:

• Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting From the Greatest Bull Market in History
• The Dow 40,000 Portfolio: The Stocks to Own to Outperform Today's Leading Benchmark
• Dow, 30,000 by 2008 Why It's Different This Tim
• Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market

Ya see, as were the predictions for nearly 10 years, the markets were going to go up to infinity and beyond, that looked like an auction ... 30,000, 36,000, 40,000 and 100,000. Let us not forget, we now have the U.S. stock market (Dow) in 8500. (More ...)

Written by Carlos Lopez on November 18, 2008 with 371 comments
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The week in the markets (6-13 Nov)

Personal comment.

On Friday the markets seemed to launch a feeling of strength: General Motors touched historic lows and reported that without government help would go into bankruptcy and unemployment in the U.S. grew in two months in more than half a million people and yet the stock market rose. However, if one takes into account that since 1896 he had never lost the Dow Jones in the three days of a presidential election, which the lower SP on Wednesday and Thursday together is the biggest in two days since 1987 and that the rebound technician, was lowered after so much with little volume, and could give an explanation and feared it was an exception to the trend weekly. The large package of measures the Chinese government at the weekend ($ 600 billion is the fifth of GDP, "it will be another and a few cartridges) extended this positive feeling in Asia and Europe on Monday morning With the exception of Ibex. There are over the joys until the afternoon of Thursday in USA.

The bank Santander on Oct. 28, at the mouth of its CEO Alfredo Saez, refused to need more capital. On November 10 announced an expansion. In these few days has been convinced of the impossibility of selling the Bank of Venezuela, the assets in ABN shares, Cepsa, which manages the funds and insurance, at the price demanded. In short, you have bought unsold before and now has been found with a liquidity problem ... (safe somewhere caught in a mortgage-bridge that sounds something) and the expansion is costing him all shareholders in market capitalization million euros. And serve to illustrate what is happening with the economy and that makes this crisis unique: no matter how much lower interest rates, including the Euribor, if that cheaper finance is not paid and if there is interest in using this possible liquidity to invest. Until Santander wants to sell assets and unable to do so raises the liquidity of its shareholders or tries to tap new. Santander can do that but, how many companies can do the same, how much they will get lower financing rates?

I attached two charts USA, with shaded on the cycles of recession, one is the unemployment rate in the U.S. and its forecast to reach 8%

This is another of the ISM manufacturing index:

In Spain the situation is similar, we have known in the past economic data and much worse if we do if the figures do not even bank bad debt is still worrisome (http://www.economistas.tv/la-morosidad-oficial-no- is-so /) As can be seen in other economic cycles figures have been more hopeless, it could be a cyclical crisis and give more reason for the optimists who think they can get out of it in months. But it is necessary to recover the credit market, without that status data will continue to deteriorate and, as we have seen this week, the suspensions of payments that began in financial, went to banks and then to insurance companies, will reach shops and industrial companies.

And that perception is reversing in the economy and stock markets, the beneficial impact of lower interest rates. If we add to this the fact that I commented on the need to sell assets as they lose value to dispose of cash, accounts for the balance of the week. The best quality of the bag-your-liquidity is now one of the biggest obstacles to the upward trend because it is one of the few markets to resort to if you need cash, even at the level of citizens is easier to sell shares even though much is lost to try to sell some other property. As positive aspects of this bad stock market week, two factors: the low volume on downhill (although it can mean that we are still far from the capitulation of course also of the soil) and the finding by the Telecoms sector as a refuge-of-date valid. Now we have to have faith in the famous meeting this weekend but particularly in the aspect stock market got more faith in the possible manipulation of the bullish effect by next Friday 21 to the expiration of some futures (which is the Ibex) and options almost all indices. In fact, statistically the next week is a pretty favorable to the stock exchanges.

Finally, it is very remarkable, despite a rebound from yesterday evening, the lower crude (although the effect of the weakness of € and other causes less understandable its effect on the price of a liter of fuel is less noticeable) of gas natural and generally of all raw materials. This is no longer seen as something positive on the stock exchanges because it's getting a lot of problems in economies where there are a lot of money invested ... the prime example is Russia. It is possible to see handlers maneuvers to prevent the oil-icon of all raw materials-stop-down and personally I hope to make a speculative-operation in a possible rebound in oil prices and gold. (More ...)

Droblo written by the November 14, 2008 with 337 reviews
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What inherits Obama

The other day I read that the American figure that the state is being spent on trying to resolve the financial crisis is already 2.7 billion dollars, and that in a country that already, even before all this and much needed money. He also knew the number of jobs: 524 thousand new unemployed in two months. And I began to search for information on the actual state of U.S. finances. Let a couple of numbers and put all the zeros, that more than a trillion translates as billions and trillions when we lees and I had to document only on American websites:

• A day on November 11 at 09.14, the debt is U.S. $ 10.635.794.969.002, an amount that is increasing second to second, and in fact there is a ticking clock that will (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki / National_Debt_Clock) and discussed here not long ago that going from 9 billion to 10 had to fix it. Currently 500.000.000.000 is increasing each month since October, a figure of growth that is expected to be sharply reduced because it is what they grew on average annually since 2003. In September the U.S. government expanded, very appropriately, the limit of indebtedness from 10.6 trillion to 11.3 but everything points that will run short in 2009

• The estimated GDP-American 2007 is 13,800,000,000,000, then the current debt is around 75% of GDP and it seems to get worse closer to 90% only by increasing the debt if we have to account that GDP may actually be reduced if there is recession, this could be even worse. They are not historic peaks as can be seen in figure but let's remember that it was exceeded 100% due to World War II:

However, many countries are worse off and for years (from among the "big" Japan is close to 200%, in Europe and Italy, Belgium and Greece around 100%) the big problem is that this is only the debt State that is a fraction of the total debt of banks, families and American companies estimate is about 50,000,000,000,000, almost 5 times more than the public and more than 3 times the entire GDP. In Spain, where we have this sense of indebtedness total private debt is double the GDP. (More ...)

Droblo written by the November 11, 2008 with 243 comments
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The week in the markets (31 Oct - 6Nov)

Personal comment.

After the miracle that was expected (and confirmed) this week, which is called a black and Hussein Obama becomes president of the USA (another miracle is that she does), I received news of aid from our government the mortgage and I thought if there were any other one this week and the government would have done if we are from here when called for direct aid to the people. But I am afraid that has not happened: the government first decided to deny the crisis and support the banking industry after a series of measures hardly justifiable to the alleged strength of our financial sector. Now they have submitted results boxes and banks and profits have continued to be astronomical (if they are not means that aid has not been a change of transparency, still missing that no entity in Spain this loss when there are solutions in other countries more solid than ours) decide to "help" directly to individual mortgaged helping them go through this slump. But once again become a more aid for banks to the public. I think in the forum has already been felt all the opinions on this subject and I must also say that very acutely so I just want to emphasize again that the prevailing idea is something like: "We are in the worst of the crisis, guaranteed deposits until 2010 and helped the mortgaged two years and then with the revival that will fix everything is "What will happen if those unemployed after a two-year moratorium can not find work? For this reason there is no answer.

Of course it is desirable that all this is a bad streak but most cyclical of time this seems far removed from reality. The numbers continue to decline week to week and what is valued as improvement may simply be adjustments after a very sharp. Fixed in this original graphic where we can see how it appears the trend for banks to borrow from the Federal Reserve is changing, but if we compare with other periods in which there is not even needed to resort to the EDF, it is easy to appreciate the level of banking crisis of the USA and alejadísimo that this is settled:

I do not see any signal that enables believe that this crisis will last only a few months. E insist not to confuse the bag (which may well bounce for a few weeks as he was bouncing a few days) with the real economy. The macro data are disastrous, unreservedly and hope that the lowering of rates might change, whether justified or not-only be realized within several months, and that if this drives the rebate credit. If not, only reduce the benefits of saving without encouraging the activity to the investor. And the worst thing is that the states are running out of room for maneuver as in Spain itself has acknowledged Solbes (http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Solbes/dice/habra/recursos/afrontar/crisis/elpepueco / 20081105elpepieco_6/Tes)

Turning to the bag, the idea of "This is a pothole, a historic opportunity to buy, but months back in the upward path" is being installed. And yet this week (except in Europe, from Thursday to Thursday-closed flat, with some better rates and other worse) has come to a negative balance. And that if we look at the percentage rise since we have been minimal, is notable because the descent was very sharp. And was the upward trend in November and the maximum rise (Tuesday) after a day of low volatility (Monday). But neither with the help of central banks has been with the resistance led by commenting two weeks ago and is still stuck in a dangerous area. The Dax rose well above 5000 but has been unable to keep them in the SP and the arrival in 1000 has been the perfect excuse to very aggressive sales. The Dow and the Ibex nor have approached the 10 mil ...

The fear is still there as we saw on Wednesday because although statistically markets operate best on the day following the victory of a Republican than a Democrat the truth is that it should have been positive that the forecasts were met and there were no surprises, however these As of last week to buy the rumor and sell the news is becoming a habit and this caused a deep bearish movement. As I commented last week, while there are rises in quiet but there are a lot of threat falls hurry to sell. And he has returned to fulfill. However, I detect many voices that speak of buying in the fall of the year-end rally is possible .... I still envy the neutral and it is clear at these levels because I keep seeing danger to both sides. Today it is known the figure of unemployed last month and is feared to be disastrous, most of -200 thousand. As a curious statistic you remember that it was not a bad figure since March 2003, just the month in which he died the previous bearish trend and started the bull that ended in the fall of 2007.

And with regard to the Euribor, a point: that is truly novel now has one year deposits in financial institutions and which are due before 2010 and thus are guaranteed by the state, giving a return similar to the cost of a mortgage. It seems to me that an abnormality was corrected when 2009 arrives and there is much need for liquidity in the face of squaring balance at the end of the year. The Euribor rate comparing to a year with the intervention to 14 days of the ECB should better compare the returns offered by your bank for a year and what you pay for mortgages at that same bank and verify that the differential is not so much . Not to defend the banks with this, just describe a reality, the battle to capture a liability is so great that the differential between what it receives a customer with money and what they should pay that money for a mortgage is minimal. One consolation: yesterday in U.S. rates were at 1% and libor to 12 months to 2.84 (a 184% more), here had to 3.25 and the Euribor to 12 months to 4.70 (a 44.62% increase). But much remains could be even worse ...

(more ...)

Written by Droblo on November 7, 2008 with 296 reviews
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The Economics of Homer (II)

Some economists argue that bureaucracy and the public sector has a very strong tendency to increase their budgets beyond what is considered efficient.

I do not know your work, but mine have cut costs wherever they can, in travel, meals, recruitment, office supplies, telephone, Christmas (yes, it is already here!), And so on. Should we not demand the same from those who are managing our taxes?. Ojo, I do not speak at the official, speaking on a strategic level and move toward smart spending, leaving the studies of the degree of hybridization between the common quail and the Japanese quail for better times.

So after this pataleta by the waste of government to step in the press briefing a day that passes the American elections, touching look at the economy of truth.

• Trichet would lower rates today by 0.5% (at 3.25%) and place them at 2% in 2009
• Ordonez estimates that banks can absorb up to 9% of delinquencies
• Bankinter contemplates returning to some customers for losses by Lehman
• Wall Street slows dry after the End of the Obama effect rebound?
• Industrial production suffers the second largest drop in 15 years
• The boxes prefer to pay exorbitant rates before they go to the bottom of the Government

Written by Carlos Lopez on Nov. 6, 2008 with 282 reviews
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