Guessing the future
Niels Bohr was a physique Danes to which he was in his honor on behalf of the chemical element "Bohrio" (Bh), a highly unstable isotope which may never see it because its half-life is just 0.44 seconds. But what interests us from this man is this great quote:
"Prediction is very difficult, especially if it is about the future."
It is curious that a scientist (one of the few professions in which after much experience can be made reliable prediciones) dares to say what many economists are silent, our inability to know what will happen. But when the forecasts are positive and we creernoslas are more aware that when they are negative, the most obvious example is the current crisis hidden in its gestation both by Governments and by the media as for ourselves. In fact, in this very blog I cortaypega in early January about a pelín pessimistic forecasts for this year that passed without penalty or glory for his catastrophist dye.
But this is not new and not go further in 1999 in the stock market boom of technology companies (the famous bubble. Com), was published the book "Dow 100,000 myth or reality" that you can still buy on Amazon, this is a short summary of what is going.
Many magazine articles and even books tell you that the stock markets by the end of the 90 are in a dangerous bubble. No one can know when will the crash but many people think we're very close to the next big economic curve. Kadlec, chief investment Seligman Advisors has a different point of view: the bad things happen now and forever, but the Dow Jones will reach 100,000 points in 2020. In other words "two decades of growth above average." This represents only a 11.1% annual growth in the share price, which is completely unrealistic.
We can find similar books written that year:
- Dow 40,000: Strategies for Profiting From the Greatest Bull Market in History
- The Dow 40,000 Portfolio: The Stocks to Own to Outperform Today's Leading Benchmark
- Dow, 30,000 by 2008 Why It's Different This Tim
- Dow 36,000: The New Strategy for Profiting From the Coming Rise in the Stock Market
Ya see, as were the predictions for nearly 10 years, the markets were going to go up to infinity and beyond, that looked like an auction ... 30,000, 36,000, 40,000 and 100,000. Let us not forget, we now have the U.S. stock market (Dow) in 8500.
Curiously, all the criticism he received from the book "Dow 100,000" by users of the shop amazon before the crash of 2000 were 5 stars (you can see it in its web), well, all except one who said.
This book is the confirmation that the bubble has been in the minds of Americans.
So we function, suddenly in the minds of citizens creates a mood, as soon as optimistic and pessimistic anyone who writes against that thinking is completely ignored. If you want to start a blog that works now, you have to talk about the crisis, with predictions that by 2020 the Dow Jones will be 100 and that oil will be $ 1,000. Even if you do not want to give it credibility uséis round number, say something like "in the year 2023 the Dow Jones will be on 158 points since it look like there is a mathematical model detrtás. Whenever we meet with opposing views, but we tend to ignore those that go against the tide of current thinking, hence it is difficult to predict the bubbles and it is difficult to leave them once they have exploited. Therefore, he did not have a more critical look at any news that we read and that somehow that state of mind that floats in the air, will be reflected in it. Items such as written yesterday by Oriol, were undoubtedly fresh air in the current economic, as were two years ago we warned of the excesses.
(172 votes, average: 3.83 out of 5) 
Loading ... Written by Carlos Lopez on November 18, 2008 with 370 points.
# 1, Droblo
It is absurd to make prophecies and even more absurd loss in the market but your article I was reminded of something I wrote in my blog on Dec. 31, 2007:
Can they climb the bags in a context of rising prices and growth to the bottom? The past months have shown that, yes, with the liquidity of the central banks of time is achieved. And I have no idea whether it could continue. Take the example of Spain (and thus not mention neither the USA nor the geopolitical deficit):
- In the third quarter, the unemployment rate has once again exceed 8%.
- The rate of registered unemployment increased interannual month to month.
- The interannual rate of unemployment among foreigners is growing at around 30% which is over the "miracle" of new additions to Social Security.
- Cae consumer confidence.
- Increase the levels of household indebtedness.
- The competitiveness and productivity are still on the floor, while the external deficit grows, which is close to 10% of GDP.
- No longer converges with Europe, but in real terms, it diverges from it.
- The OECD revised its forecast in two tenths on the growth of the Spanish economy, to be left at 2.5%. Eight-tenths less than the figure used for the development of the State Budget!
-Inflation soared, and therefore falls the purchasing power of the Spaniards.
-The real estate crisis is no longer a theory, it is a fact.
Getting worse all the figures, and would for an article on December 31, 2008 ...
It's nice to be positive and not lose the faith but the data are devastating ...