Real CPI
Since he is no longer the "gold standard" and a ticket does not represent anything physical but simply faith in its issuer has formalized the old adage that says that the basis of the economy is confidence. As long as there is confidence the economy may go well although there are points "dark". Why? Because if consumers and businesses and banks believe in a good future, spend, invest and lend and this will generate well-paid jobs so the virtuous circle will continue to operate and will continue to spend, invest and banks to finance projects future.
For that confidence is not lost speeches by political and economic decision usually mostly reassuring because if you lose falling economic growth and are entering a vicious circle: consumers do not spend, businesses earn less and reduce their investment and the banks get the credit because bad debt increases. And the order may be reversed as is happening with the current crisis: the banks reduce credit before the outbreak of the housing bubble and late payment by bad investments, get the credit to businesses and consumers, scared by all this, spending less and therefore less to buy companies that reduce their profits and, ultimately, generate unemployment. Besides the problem in society that this generates, it is clear that if unemployment rises and companies and banks earn less income are also lower because of the administration are charged less tax at a time that should increase social spending.
All this is very basic, nothing original but there is one factor that can undermine the confidence that usually goes unnoticed: the veracity of official data. And because they are not certain or not, but by the manner of calculating them. And it would take pages to explain how such data in the USA is distorted industrial orders each month with the orders of governmental machinery of war or the handling of the Department of Labor with the monthly employment data ... there are many examples. However, one of the most striking to me is the calculation of the CPI.
Take the example of Spain, whose CPI in 2007 was 4.2%, which should mean that average prices rose by 4.2% but it is clear that a TV-for example, do not shop every week or even every year But the milk (which went up 31%) is almost daily, or the pan (+14%) and fuels (+16.2%). Some say that the perception of these costs-to-be everyday makes us believe that inflation is higher than it is but I think that is the weighting system which is not fair.
How is it possible that if housing prices went up by 30% annual inflation was only 3% if half of the household budget goes to pay the house itself? Let us go further: In the mid-20, share prices in the U.S. grew an average of 3.5 times in five years, but the prices of consumer goods did not vary significantly. Should we conclude that there was no inflation? Why? Why exclude the rates of inflation, for no reason, financial assets? If low interest rates we had in Spain in recent years had flow, rather than mortgage credit, to consumer credit, the CPI would have been fired (instead of housing prices) and it would have suffered Official inflation.
The current base weights of 2001 and are adjusted each year minimally. The latest data available are these:
| Groups | CPI base 2001 Weights 2002 | CPI base 2001 Weights 2003 | CPI base 2001 Weights 2004-2005 | CPI base 2001 Weights 2006 |
| 01. Food and soft drinks | 21.86 | 21.93 | 22.60 | 22.28 |
| 02. Alcoholic drinks and snuff | 3.22 | 3.18 | 3.17 | 3.07 |
| 03. Clothing and footwear | 9.93 | 9.90 | 9.73 | 9.25 |
| 04. Housing | 11.03 | 10.68 | 10.69 | 10.71 |
| 05. Tableware | 6.36 | 6.41 | 6.41 | 6.17 |
| 06. Medicine | 2.81 | 2.75 | 2.68 | 2.72 |
| 07. Shipping | 15.58 | 15.32 | 14.40 | 14.91 |
| 08. Communications | 2.57 | 2.73 | 2.99 | 3.28 |
| 09. Leisure and culture | 6.73 | 6.83 | 6.76 | 6.78 |
| 10. Teaching | 1.74 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.68 |
| 11. Hotels, cafes and restaurants | 11.27 | 11.18 | 11.23 | 11.45 |
| 12. Other goods and services | 6.91 | 7.39 | 7.39 | 7.72 |
| TOTAL | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 | 100.00 |
With these data you can see that inflation affects the poorest who are based consumption especially in the first paragraph.
Now that every reader will see if this table is in line with their usual costs and check that this calculation very similar in all the countries around us, is very subjective ... Of course, while we believe the data and return to the issue of confidence - Everything will be fine and accept that our salaries and pensions go up each year, the official CPI and so we think that we do not lose purchasing power.
At this official website you can calculate the CPI has risen far from the official dates (data from 1961):
PD - Still others are doing worse, look at the figures of the country most inflationary in the world:
Summary: press
- The German economy entered into recession after contracting 0.5%
- U.S. will not buy more active "toxic" but will invest in banking capital
- BBVA forecasts: the rates drop to 1.5% and the Euribor will be at 2.5%
- Up to 25,000 shops miss the closing this year
- The interbank still does not work: only cross transactions a day
- Santander began the largest capital increase in cash from Spain
- The government shuffled back onto the light in January
- The crisis that Spaniards will spend up to 11% less this Christmas
Droblo written by the November 13, 2008 with 428 points.
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# 1, Good Night and Good Luck!
Recession in Germany!
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aV1q1nQoldKc&refer=home
That would help that Mr Trichet lower rates again next month? I suppose that if, you know that if Germany were costipa the ECB cared.
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