The Mentidero and bag
In the Old Madrid when someone wanted to find out what was happening on the rule had to go to any of the 3 Mentidero who were in the capital since they were places where we often spoke of the news even before they occur . There were even some specialization in them, and that was not the same gossip about where he had stayed the king who try to learn as has been the last battle of our glorious army. According to the "madripedia" these are the most important of the time.
It was the "palace" in the square in front of Alcazar. There was a crowd congregated, whose raison d'etre was in those who expected to be received, answered, raising the request or receive compensation or pension from the Crown, but it was mixed with all sorts of people, including vendors, and filibusters trickster.
The closest was the "Puerta del Sol", which were also lenders and dealers, crowd was setting in the stands of the convent of San Felipe Real, a kind of high slice of the rest of the square, where a crowd crowd quiet, uncertain of dedication, not recommended for life and fearsome evil.
Finally, there was the "Mentidero of Representatives," in a square in the heart of writers, actors and pens, where they moved all matters relating to the world of the Limelight.
There were times in which the same people located in several Mentidero the same day, as you can see real professionals at the rumorología. As times change, we now have in the Mentidero the Internet with blogs and forums as you are reading. With many gossip and sometimes even the questions are passed between them, as is the case then we bring.
Although this is not a Mentidero directed to a public investor, with many seeing the price of certain stocks and rebounds yesterday as the temptations of them can invest in stock market, therefore pick up the rumor (meme) from Especulación.org (and responded Also in Gurusblog) When asked to enter the market?. To do this, we Droblo responds with what he thinks, as long as it is only an opinion and not a recommendation, but I think it is worth knowing you are going through the head someone who has been on the market longer than us.
Investment decisions of the capital of each individual is something very personal. It's easy for someone who understands advise on a car purchase to someone but the decision to purchase the car should only depend on the buyer and its economic potential. I start from the same premise on the stock market: everyone knows the money is and that you can use for investment and each must decide whether the investment makes the time or profitability, that is, if you want to buy thinking of 10 years hearing or get a 10% variables are different and the need to establish a peak of losses, too. This theme would be very long and I do not think is the reason for this article because here I am being asked to me "wet" and I think it would be a good time to invest in the stock market. And I understand that no quick or for speculation to take advantage of a possible year-end rally, "but as an investment in the medium-long term.
It is a truism but the time to buy is when you have finished the bearish trend. Today is not over, and despite strong downhills I have not detected the capitulation that typically precede it (days on which the values that have fallen on which rise with a ratio of 9 to 1, for example). Each has its own arguments to make decisions and I think the first should be the logic. This tells us that the economy is bad and will get worse. The following are a mixture of my opinions of others with more information than I do, statistics, technical analysis ... A system that this year has brought very good results follow a study by Citibank notes that the moments of panic and euphoria weekly. In the euphoria must be sold and the panic buying since the law runs contrary to sentiment. Look, if no updated figure on Friday:
In January, when it unleashed panic bass player, came clear signal to buy (below -0.30 and at the time it changes direction) and again at least March, warning of recoveries. In May warned that the increases were too euphoric and fast and in fact went back to see annual minimum in June and July. And has not returned to give signal to buy, even now that it has entered into negative signal again.
It is absurd to rely on a single instrument to make a decision, I have demonstrated this by its didactics chart. On the other hand, I read a report by Barclays Capital of the few services that I study the trust of its findings, the majority are very good for the data but very often the media) who argue that we are at a historic opportunity to an entire generation of buy on the stock. Their arguments are good and are primarily based on that stock prices, specifically speaking of Germany and United Kingdom-are already reflecting the book value of the companies. That reasoning, if their data are correct, it is also quite solid.
However, experience shows that in the great bassists-like movements in the upside-are more important trends that the numbers. And if we talk about actions, we talk about business. And if we talk business, talk about a worsening of the results of these will be extended for at least several months (which will lower its book value as well) because consumption is very concerned. And in a normal stock market this crisis could be solved relatively quickly and as we teach statistics, stock market to anticipate the movement macro figures about 6 months but now we also have a "credit crunch". As much as the state guarantees to private banks that have low liquidity banks will be stopped for months, will not increase the credits and investment while lower interest rates and small businesses and individuals have little access a fresh cash to generate economic activity.
The banking problem corrupts the statistics that are managing those who believe that the worst has passed that say half of the SP500 down from a maximum 30% in 450 days and this time has dropped by 42% in 366 days. And that encourage them to buy taking into account that half of that rate rises in the next year by 36% since the minimum. I do not think this crisis is comparable to any and if so, should be compared to 1929 that lasted several years and in which there was no SP500. It does not seem very consistent highlight the uniqueness of this crisis, something they have done since ministers to analysts, in the worst moments, and now justify their purpose by an average ...
Thus, we remain in clear bearish trend. To enter and exit a market is dangerous but if someone is deemed suitable, I wish him the best. It is also possible that after all the interest shown by so many world authorities in curbing the stock market crash is possible to see a strong upward face makeup at the end of the year (remember, for example, that the problem of pension funds invested in equities in the U.S. may left in misery to many retirees just when approaching the retirement age for those born by the "baby boom" after World War II). Outside there, I do not see any sign of change in that trend still bearish and accepting that perhaps have reason to believe that we have seen the least of the year, I am afraid we have not seen the minimum of that trend.
When do you have to buy it? Well, I am not a prophet as my answer can only be: At the moment, no. If one day I change my mind, we can even speculate on what areas you may do better or even what bags may be more interesting. Now it seems to me that it would be inappropriate.
PS - And speaking of stock recommendations, on the website of Morgan Stanley makes a calculation of their stock recommendations to August 31 this year clearly bearish:
Coverage Universe
Investment Banking Clients (IBC)
Stock Rating Category Count
% Of Total
Count
% Of Total IBC
Rating% of Category
Sobreponderar /
Buy892
41%
299
45%
34%
Hold 936
43%
277
42%
30%
Infraponderar /
Sell367
17%
87
13%
24%
Overall 2.195 663
As you can see, only 2 out of 10 recommendations are for sale despite the clarity of the bearish trend. This is shameful for these banks that despite this still moving market with its recommendations .... Ojo therefore to rely on certain sources.
And finally, the usual summary of the press:
- Inflation is low four tenths in September to 4.5%
- The interbank market is a sign of a timid recovery
- Can you save the black money to the Spanish of a great depression?
- The U.S. government will buy stakes in major banks
- The keys to the heat shield for the Spanish banking
- Santander Sovereign purchase by 1,400 million euros and breaks into U.S.
- Leave the house in half to save time for divorce
Written by Carlos and Droblo on October 14, 2008 with 338 points.
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# 1, Anonymous
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