The week in markets
A point before the "billet": we are witnessing historic days in the markets, had never seen a crisis so strong, so comprehensive and so many implications. Attempt to synthesize the most but there is little that has passed over these days that is not important. Other weeks will have to be released in two lines but this September, I repeat, is historic.
Despite the loss in value of $ in these sessions it is true that the current crisis is global but has had some American players. U.S. authorities have tried everything (to intervene, not to intervene, allowing the press to move rates, not lower rates even if it was an outcry as this week and even lead to desperate measures almost daily ...) but the laws of the market have been stronger and The financial world is very hurt. There is no longer trusted, what else is that AIG receives money from the EDF if no customer is going to dare to open an insurance policy with them? Who is going to conclude guaranteed a fund-in theory as safe as its name indicates, following the bankruptcy of Lehman? And the bank fees are reduced (fewer mortgages to developers and individuals, less trading, less investment ...) and liabilities should prevail because most lack the liquidity ... And so all financial institutions in the world and, apparently, for quite some time. If it joins with a single asset that have been built derivative products that move in the markets several times the volume of such assets, few investment banks can survive.
This mistrust will not only reduce profits and even lead to more bankruptcies, also reduced consumer confidence (which will be heavily involved in the conduct of certain expenses as the most expensive car and housing) with what the real economy will worse still, as if it did not have enough problems already. It is a crisis to which he was not see a near end: without the financial support of banking, with a state that increasingly entering less and so many families into debt with the real economy is heading into recession. Many wonder where is the money they earned during all these years of boom and is a good question but it is also true that much of that profit was "a revaluation." That is, a bank or an individual, or a manager, who possessed property values and a stock portfolio at the end of last year and has not broken any position you now have an easy 30% less than they had. And is that the old adage that no stock is won until it is sold should be applied to many accounts ...
With this background the minimum securities seem a logical conclusion, a simple story and despite the recent rises it would be logical that the gold and silver prices rise much more like a good value shelter (now the slogan is to preserve capital, and even with gold may be losing money is clearly no break) and that crude oil continue to fall by the economic downturn that all this implies. The markets are very volatile and everything can happen as we are seeing almost daily, and there will be rebounds as indeed has already occurred this week but we can not expect pleasant surprises in the upcoming season of publication of company results or macro data except perhaps in inflation. Both are badly this as the way forward.
Finally, for those still invested in the stock exchange, two details:
- It seems to me by his behavior this week that the Telecom sector is again the favorite by some as "refuge", that could help quite a listing of the TEF and probably a better relative performance of the Ibex.
- According to statistics gathered by JLCárpatos, from 1990 to 2006 that we have in the week after the due dates of September futures and options, that is the next, there are 15 years down! and only 2 years upward, in 1998 and 2001, curiously maturities who arrived preceded by decreases violent and harsh (as happened this year). However, last year climbed.
Before going into details, we come to a summary of the press.
- The Ibex, fired by banks after mortgage rescue plan
- U.S. preparing for the biggest intervention in the markets since the Great Depression
- U.S. will create a state agency that buys assets of failed banks
- A hunting of bears: the UK FSA continues to the SEC and the Shorts outlaws
- The gold and silver soar in stock market values as refuge
- The promoters bear the sluggishness of banking at the highest in ten years
Indices (from Thursday to Saturday) on Monday marked the annual minimum Ibex and the Dax in Europe and the USA in SP500, on Tuesday, all indexes that framework in this table without exception, on Wednesday, again all except Japan on Thursday and all of new.
| Indexes | Sem. Ant. | Last. wk. | Var. Sem. | Var. Annual | Min. 2008 | Max. 2008 | Dif-act min | Dif max-act. |
| DOW | 11,433 | 11,018 | -3.63 | -17.56 | 10,461 | 13,279 | 5.32 | -17.03 |
| SP | 1249 | 1204 | -3.60 | -18.54 | 1133 | 1471 | 6.27 | -18.15 |
| NAS | 2258 | 2199 | -2.61 | -17.76 | 2070 | 2661 | 6.23 | -17.36 |
| BRAZ | 50,898 | 48,061 | -5.57 | -24.48 | 45,294 | 72,766 | 6.11 | -33.95 |
| € STOK50 | 3222 | 3000 | -6.89 | -31.90 | 2978 | 4411 | 0.74 | -31.99 |
| FTSE | 5318 | 4880 | -8.24 | -24.64 | 4860 | 6534 | 0.41 | -25.31 |
| DAX | 6178 | 5863 | -5.10 | -27.32 | 5812 | 8100 | 0.88 | -27.62 |
| IBEX | 11,136 | 10,631 | -4.53 | -29.98 | 10,571 | 15,186 | 0.57 | -29.99 |
| NIKKEI | 12,102 | 11,489 | -5.07 | -24.94 | 11,301 | 15,156 | 1.66 | -24.20 |
| SHANGHAI | 2078 | 1895 | -8.81 | -63.98 | 1802 | 5522 | 5.16 | -65.68 |
Some opinions:
- Bureaucracy, a slab for Spain
- The controversy of whether or interventionism is not appropriate to end the crisis
- Mal many consolation of fools, but neither the theoretical experts earn money this year ...
- Chevreux (a subsidiary of Crédit Agricole) believes that the sluggishness of the boxes will reach 6.5% next year and that more of them will have to be rescued.
- We've months with this tune, and time has proved that it is true: there is still "pufos" hidden
- On Wednesday morning the team of analysts from Citigroup in its daily report sent a notice saying that they believed were the minimum annual bag. Hours later, they were beaten all thresholds again.
Data for reflection.
- Lehman has gone from being one of the bibles of the stock recommendations throughout the world to disappear, giving us all a lesson in what it can be unreliable analysts from investment banks, which have spent years evaluating other companies -- with multiple errors, and also have been unable to assess the quality of the investments of his own institution: Lehman's debt is 613,000 dollars.
- The Dow Jones fell on Monday, more than 500 points, something that is not happening since the first meeting after the 11-stock S 2001. And is that the bankruptcy of Lehman is economically more serious than a major attack ... In the NYSE, the proportion of values which respect to those who fell rose on Monday was even greater than in the crack of 1987.
- On Tuesday the price of the insurer AIG (attached graph of the movement of the day) showed us the danger of current markets, will take direction speculative to be taken: He had closed the previous day at $ 4.76, opened at 1.85, fell to 1.25 , Recovered to 4.57, back down, climb again and marked a new peak in 5.24 and finally closed at 3.75 We are talking about what was until recently the world's largest insurance company and with global ramifications both for its branches for their products and it turns out that in one day price moves from the minimum to a maximum 319%! And in the "alter hours" on Wall Street fell again to $ 2.60. The next day opened at $ 2.29 ... Why continue?
- Excerpt from the communiqué of the EDF on Tuesday: The problems in the financial markets rise and the labor market is weakening sharply. Economic growth is slowing down, partly reflecting a weakening of household spending. The weak credit conditions, the contraction in real estate and the slowdown in export growth will hinder growth in the following quarters.
- The Russian stock market has lost a quarter of its value in 3 days. The best way that they have found to stop falling has been discontinued. Chart is terrifying.
- The IMF recently estimated the overall cost of the crisis at $ 900 billion. Only taking into account the money injected by EDF over the premium tax refund Bush has already reached that figure ... only in USA.
- The U.S. current account deficit is wide in the second quarter to 183,100 million dollars (5.1% of the GDP)
- Here we see how the annual figure in the previous minimum of U.S. indexes were due almost exclusively to financial security and have now been joined by many more values contagion effect, which is why the bottom line (the banking sector USA) is far from its minimum while the indexes have marked the new. Another novelty is that the values in technology (which statistically do worse in situations of contraction in consumption) have all year, so far at least, to do better as can be seen in the Nasdaq (the top line, the other two are the Dow Jones and SP500):

- Only 3 rating agencies (Fitch, Moody's, Standard & Poors) cover the credit rating of 90% of all financial institutions in the world.
- According Iberclear (the repository of values in Spain) have been settled and all shares, debt and derivatives at Lehman in our country. The total was € billion but we do not know whom to correspond.
- Kraft Foods replaces AIG as a member of Dow Jones. Again, the values that most of the indices go down and with that technical analysis was misrepresented. Even today the figure is compared with the current Ibex that Terra had to weigh more than Repsol ...
The macro data of the week. Apart from the credit crisis has been some macro data to highlight the reassuring CPI American or low industrial production, while I keep building homes in the U.S., which fell to its lowest level in 17 years and building permits (barometer for predicting the future) a minimum of 26 years. We are all aware that the current outbreak of the bubble in U.S. real estate began.
We can not forget that this whole credit crisis came by the passion of some engineers of mounting financial businesses to increase profits and one of the most common (there have been many, it is not surprising that investment banks are much more than the commercial most affected by the problems) was to collect the mortgages, securitized, with the complicity of irresponsible analysis of a house give them a rating and sell, the buyer and resell to turn around and create a financial mirage based on the financial possibilities of certain families to able to pay their housing. When house prices fell below its value or valuation of the mortgage left to pay the entities that had provisions for their mortgage portfolios with liquidity and ... well, the ball was going up and we all know how it is developing. It is therefore vital that house prices slow their fall, Greenspan said that not long ago there were signs that we were on the floor. I searched among some of the most prestigious and analysts forecast I have found almost unanimous and that is reflected in these figures compiled by John Mauldin, the first sale of houses and the second of its price:
If met, and if Spain take on what it took in getting downhill, we would be talking about that is not going to be a reasonable pace of sales of homes up to 2011-2012 and there will be no increases in the price of housing up to a year later. I do not think such a complex problem can be analyzed as simply, we need to see many more factors (interest rates, rising unemployment etc.). But there is data. And look at the positive side, everything suggests that the worst-at least in-USA has gone according to these tests.
Schematic summary of the week.
Friday.
The hope for a solution to the problem of Lehman led hikes in Europe, most notable in the Ibex, but few moves to closing in USA (where he was beginning to crumble AIG, -24% to the closing) despite a couple of good macro data
Monday.
Despite some rebounds motivated by an oil well below $ 100 and the rumors about possible coordinated decreases in rates, the market considered that all actions of the EDF had been few and weighed as a slab of bankruptcy and Lehman New collapse of AIG. The Ibex was the one who most fell in Europe (-4.5%) but was even worse and eventually plummeted to the USA are closing above the 4.5%.
Tuesday.
Crash Asian, European good behavior during the morning plunge before opening another bearish USA to be the FTSE English (exceeding the breadth -4%) of the worst behavior but, thanks to rumors of a takeover of AIG who placed in a positive light USA, the closure was less dramatic European stressing the positive Ibex. Although the recurrence rate after USA fell again ended with a closing price increases in excess of 1% due to rumors of AIG rescue again, excessive oversold and the unexpected good results from Morgan Stanley
Wednesday.
On Wednesday, it was confirmed that the FED it sees enough business viability to AIG to provide 85 billion U.S. dollars in exchange for 80%, avoid bankruptcy and can expect moving forward. China was not fooled by the hikes, but Japan and Europe in the first hour and later when the collapse of HBOS was solved with a purchase from Lloyd's. The return to the harsh reality brought another disastrous U.S. housing data, falls for the new candidate for bankruptcy (this time is Morgan Stanley despite their good results) and the concern about the future of AIG as it was speculated that with no would be sufficient liquidity of the EDF. USA opened at around -2%, recovered somewhat, the SEC increased to all the shares traded prohibition on the sale of shares not owned ... but the credit crisis and further weighed the market down again to be the FTSE English -6% almost the hardest hit in Europe and USA tried several rebounds while the Dow marked its lowest close in nearly 3 years and the SP500 and the Nasdaq plunged nearly 5%. Spectacular rebound of gold and silver and to a lesser extent oil. Actors negative: -25% Morgan Stanley and AIG (despite being the EDF its majority shareholder, who was going to say) -46%.
Thursday.
On Thursday, new collapse Asia (China came to fall more than 6%) while it was far from closed minimal, and open up Europe in minimum annual though soon came back thanks to the merger negotiations between Wachovia and Morgan Stanley and, However, by concerted action by several central banks to inject liquidity into the system. Were reached maximum payout of around 2% to be phased out and when it seemed to be back negative on the wrong data in weekly unemployment, an opening above the USA +1% maintained the positive tone and in Europe as there was reached + 2% and new bassist turn up new annual minimum. The excuse was the sharp drop in new Morgan Stanley (at the worst time came to fall 46%): Europe had moderate losses, USA came down to 2% and at a very rapid and violent be turned around, again the positive, hesitated in the area and shot up to maximum a day, and exceeded that caused shorter closures at the speed of the movement that came to graze the +5%. The excuse was that it was reported on CNBC that the U.S. government would create a kind of macroentidad covering all possible entities that break, something that I did in the 80s when several savings banks went into crisis. The expiry of futures and options Friday I do not think it has been, either, unrelated to the magnitude of this movement and it is highly suspect that this has been leaked on a day out for so many investment portfolios ... From the stress of +53% Wachovia rising and that he became almost 65%.
Written by Droblo the Sept. 19, 2008 with 288 points.
Read more articles on Euribor
- [+] Reddit: This article stresses
- [+] Del.icio.us: Add this article to Favorites
- [+] Furl: Add this article to Favorites




# 1, Mano H20
Hello everyone
On the controversy of whether or interventionism is not appropriate to end the crisis.
I support my children learn from their mistakes. I try not to interfere in its decisions but not stop watch. I warn that they are going to get screwed up and let them, because they learn from it. I leave you play and even squabble within limits.
But Be assured that if I see any of them will fall through a window from great heights, skip to secure it and if necessary I play my life to save them. All this without hesitation or a moment. And I do not think that the latter comes into contradiction with the former.
I say this because at the back end of not understanding why people criticize both the U.S. government intervention in this whole mess economic-financial-political.
What breaks the theory of market economy? What bankruptcy purest principles of liberalism? I do not think so. Neither am I so sure.
A special situations, special solutions. A desperate, desperate solutions.
And eye, because I understand perfectly well that this seems to make good the theme of "capitalizing on the benefits and socialize the losses," manifestly unfair idea.
But if no measures are taken that are probably going to take, the market may fall through the window and stamped righteous and sinners. The hard asphalt near the end of the fall is called recession-depression. And from that experience the Americans know for a while, because the print is in the collective memory, just as we have the issue of civil war (which it does not even go to movies, Garzon and others, at this stage of the fair) .
If someone remains absolutely faithful to his ideas is clear that it would refrain from intervening. But It's called being "dogmatic" and as such we have the extreme Christian martyrs "killed prior to renounce their faith."
Faced with the dogmatic, at the opposite extreme, there are the "pragmatic" or practical, as each prefers.
A priori'm in the question of whether someone who has done evil things and the business is going to ruin him, for nothing, "feels" ... but ... if the consequences of such mismanagement will affect the collective then ... what?
What about the employees of these companies in bankruptcy? What happens if there are failures in life? What happens to a country that is going to hell? Well, that the government jumps to the desperate to avoid a greater evil. Is not kept in a dogmatic position of non-intervention. For everything there is a first time. Everything has a limit. They are not going to say: "The country has gone to hell .... but we, true to the liberal market economy, not intervened "
Eye. The thing must not end there. The common good precedence to the individual situation of each bad manager.
Obviously, off the main fire, the cause must be investigated and, above all, be responsible and delineated responsibilities. And, of course, that those responsible are tried, convicted and, to the extent possible, disabled for life ..
I endorse them against the coletilla of Attila: "A degüello and no prisoners"
That ultimately the consequences that this whole matter can or could have, are global and not restricted to affect people of Oklahoma.
Sorry, I'm not in favor of the thing "before it dead simple." Trying to be something more practical.
Salu2