September 19, 2008

You're watching the articles of Euribor for the day on September 19, 2008.

The week in markets

A point before the "billet": we are witnessing historic days in the markets, had never seen a crisis so strong, so comprehensive and so many implications. Attempt to synthesize the most but there is little that has passed over these days that is not important. Other weeks will have to be released in two lines but this September, I repeat, is historic.

Despite the loss in value of $ in these sessions it is true that the current crisis is global but has had some American players. U.S. authorities have tried everything (to intervene, not to intervene, allowing the press to move rates, not lower rates even if it was an outcry as this week and even lead to desperate measures almost daily ...) but the laws of the market have been stronger and The financial world is very hurt. There is no longer trusted, what else is that AIG receives money from the EDF if no customer is going to dare to open an insurance policy with them? Who is going to conclude guaranteed a fund-in theory as safe as its name indicates, following the bankruptcy of Lehman? And the bank fees are reduced (fewer mortgages to developers and individuals, less trading, less investment ...) and liabilities should prevail because most lack the liquidity ... And so all financial institutions in the world and, apparently, for quite some time. If it joins with a single asset that have been built derivative products that move in the markets several times the volume of such assets, few investment banks can survive.

This mistrust will not only reduce profits and even lead to more bankruptcies, also reduced consumer confidence (which will be heavily involved in the conduct of certain expenses as the most expensive car and housing) with what the real economy will worse still, as if it did not have enough problems already. It is a crisis to which he was not see a near end: without the financial support of banking, with a state that increasingly entering less and so many families into debt with the real economy is heading into recession. Many wonder where is the money they earned during all these years of boom and is a good question but it is also true that much of that profit was "a revaluation." That is, a bank or an individual, or a manager, who possessed property values and a stock portfolio at the end of last year and has not broken any position you now have an easy 30% less than they had. And is that the old adage that no stock is won until it is sold should be applied to many accounts ...

With this background the minimum securities seem a logical conclusion, a simple story and despite the recent rises it would be logical that the gold and silver prices rise much more like a good value shelter (now the slogan is to preserve capital, and even with gold may be losing money is clearly no break) and that crude oil continue to fall by the economic downturn that all this implies. The markets are very volatile and everything can happen as we are seeing almost daily, and there will be rebounds as indeed has already occurred this week but we can not expect pleasant surprises in the upcoming season of publication of company results or macro data except perhaps in inflation. Both are badly this as the way forward.

Finally, for those still invested in the stock exchange, two details:

It seems to me by his behavior this week that the Telecom sector is again the favorite by some as "refuge", that could help quite a listing of the TEF and probably a better relative performance of the Ibex.
According to statistics gathered by JLCárpatos, from 1990 to 2006 that we have in the week after the due dates of September futures and options, that is the next, there are 15 years down! and only 2 years upward, in 1998 and 2001, curiously maturities who arrived preceded by decreases violent and harsh (as happened this year). However, last year climbed.

Before going into details, we come to a summary of the press.