Henri Poincaré and the Austrians

The theorem recurrence of Henri Poincaré tells us that in a system with a finite amount of energy and confined to a finite volume space, will return after a long enough time to a state arbitrarily close to its initial state. Basically, if the universe is finite, at some point too distant future everything will be exactly the same as now. If we think, under this theory, within many billions of years you're sitting in front of a PC reading this article. Disturbing is not it?. The main problem with this theory is that the time for that to happen it could be much higher than was predicted as a total life cycle of the universe as the universe will end well.

If instead of talking about the universe, we talk about the money we find something similar but here the universe is much smaller and things returned to their status much sooner. Are business cycles, but this we do not have to resort to Poincare if not the Austrian school that tells us the following (1912) and he sounds sure.

Generally interest rates too low stimulate investment beyond what is justified by the available capital. As investors and companies loaded with cash, bid upward productive resources available in the economy, nominal prices rise to equal the amount of money. These increases are discovering the lie, reveal the illusion monetary and show that such investments were not profitable. At present, only a further monetary injections can prevent the bubble explodes, prolonging speculation and worsen the misallocation of resources, exacerbating the effects of the inevitable crisis.

The crises are cyclical simply because it is what it takes men forget their mistakes and the worst thing is that we forget also that the errors committed when arrested. According to the Austrians, the injection of liquidity because it prolongs the crisis does not allow for a rapid correction. We again ask the question, Are they always doing the central banks?.

So do not forget, it is best to look back for which I strongly recommend this article: Tenth anniversary of the historic crisis in Russia: in ten days the financial system disintegrated.

On August 10, 1998, a barrel of Brent oil, was below the 12 dollars. On August 17, Russia threw in the towel. Announced its willingness to devalue its currency, the ruble, and postpone payments on its debt, which led the Russian financial collapse. "The trigger was a fall in oil prices. Since this was a key Russian export, it meant big trouble for the Kremlin: Russia suddenly could no longer afford to pay the interest on their debts. " So, barely 13 months after the devaluation of the Thai baht triggered a crisis in Southeast Asia, the international financial system suffered a further jolt.
The stock market also sank. The RTS index, which came from a 141.8% rise in 1996 and 97.9 in 1997, yielded a 85.1 in 1998.

Cycles, cycles and more cycles. The good thing about all this, is that after we spent so many, the best ever survived.

(Unrated)

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Written by Carlos Lopez on August 20, 2008 with 137 points.

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# 1, Vins i més

August 20, 2008, at 10:05.

Anyway I do not agree with that at the end ever do deliver better, I think rather that resembles the story of milk ... that both the pitcher is going to the source ...

Each time passes bill to more people ... not?

-1

# 2, Euribor up up!

August 20, 2008, at 10:06.

********************

Hi friends!

I have already returned from the holidays ... and again I am with you all.

I hope that we all long for.

Greetings and SAVE!

-14

# 3, TheClic

August 20, 2008, at 10:14.

I think that injections of liquidity have been a way to "socialize" the barbarities perpetrated by Neocon *** that much HIJOP now be with their money withdrawn from the market, and it also withdrawn (from Curran).

No need to know a lot of economics to know that injections of liquidity causing inflation (basically, a more billetitos, worth less) and inflation impoverishes workers (because then exit the minister on duty, or the president in office, right-wing , Left or second floor, to drop the usual round of wage moderation, and we must adjust the belt, kids).

As happens with developers and builders. If you can not intervene in the price of bread, gasoline, or housing, in the name of free market is okay to intervene to save the companies, the builders, promoters, banks ...? No, coffee for everyone here, and if a man risked their money in a business, and now it turns the business, because garlic and water.

+94

# 4, Toni

August 20, 2008, at 10:15.

Are actually stages. I think that this crisis will be neither better nor worse than the others. The big difference is that this is the first crisis of the Internet era and thrive in what forums, blogs and so on. that promote discouragement and catastrophism free.

Encouragement that this crisis, like all, we are going to ride out sooner or later. Id saving of time to put in hand bag in a few months and take advantage of the hitch. As mentioned above, we learn from history

+15

# 5, Dani --

August 20, 2008, at 10:20.

Buenos dias,

when the crisis of 92, was a boy who barely knew was happening, even if that meant we had to tighten the belt, because we were immersed in a crisis. Now back to be in another crisis, but no longer am a child and am the one who has to say that there are at home to tighten their belt for not passing Canuto, as it was then. I remember at that time was the Seville Expo in Zaragoza ... now ... ¿¿leaves vu?

Kisses of colors, which are more beautiful

+11

# 6, Malvasia

August 20, 2008, at 10:22.

Cycles. Indeed.

But the central banks, can not agree on how to address it, as they have largely been the culprits of this desaguisado.

I know is that the middle class (bone we) have to pay the excesses of the rich when they are wrong and we must help (pay) its impact on the poorest. And yet we are told that we tighten their belts, or freeze our wages, for the sake of the majority.

Well, nothing to be interpreted the belt, there is no evil that lasts 100 years ... ... ...

Greetings and Thanks

+10

# 7, Mandy

August 20, 2008, at 10:26.

Of course, not all crises are the same.
In the end, I think that Spaniards have learned the lesson, and we know that the worst of the crisis is not the lack of liquidity, or a low GDP, or Euribor high .... but unemployment.
The strike, which is merely a symptom of a situation, but that's what really matters to people.
And I think if that is an endemic Spanish. Perhaps makeup in the last cycle of economic boom, but it denotes a structure of the productive sectors wrong in all of Spain.

+22

# 8, Breogan

August 20, 2008, at 10:30.

When I decided to buy the apartment in planes, in 2005, I visited another pair of works which were initiated and which I recommend. One was in one of the entrances of the city, a building of excellent quality but stuck to a road with heavy traffic and without any service next. The other was more central but in a narrow street and into a street that many blocks are glued. So I decided to buy one in a tower at a height of 10 new urbanization well placed and surrounded by parks.

The case is already wearing since May of last year living there, and today by chance talking to an acquaintance who was working on the labor center, told me that the developer had sold the building almost everything but the money invested in buying land and Now the play was stopped because nobody was going to work because they were charging. Ie that the guy has sold the flats and not the delivery and the work began 3 years ago!.

What horny is that the building there at the entrance to the city just sold flats and the developer-builder is on the brink of bankruptcy. I have some friends who bought there and no longer see the day that make them surrender the floor with so much rumor and are desperate.

Go luck that I had

# 9, oreidubic

August 20, 2008, at 10:36.

Finally there is a minimum optimism ... previous crises the people are aware of what happened the next day reading the paper (those who read it) ... now we have the price of brent oil on line, on-line cotizazciones of the Euribor, quotes on line the pockets of all the world (or almost) ..
Cualqueir turkey who works somewhere just in Brothers & Sons or similar launches to predict disasters ... Communication media are positioned according to its color ...

In the end we will have to follow the doctrine of Asterix ... we do not expect the sky to fall on his head ... that the sun rises every day ....

73, 87, 92, 2008 ... .. I hope the next is the 2024 ... a bit of joy, boy !!!!! ... besides these good times because the rich spend the CANUTA ... as I'm poor every day like I am, I have nothing ... but ... the rich who have few day every day with something less ....

-1

# 10, ibibuya

August 20, 2008, at 10:47.

Every business cycle has 4th stage

Ascent
Relegation
Recession
Reactivation

Now we are on the decline and although Solbes did not admit the recession soon, so we still have. Animo.

Greetings.

+21

# 11, Isolde

August 20, 2008, at 10:47.

The crisis affects up to babies, it will be by the stress of mothers during pregnancy thinking about what they are expensive diapers. Incidentally, remove the luxury tax on diapers that we all, Lene.
http://www.elmundo.es/elmundosalud/2008/08/19/corazon/1219169215.html

# 12, Sheila

August 20, 2008, at 10:47.

Vale, is a cycle but how much is going to take this negative cycle?. For me now that the key question is how much lasted the others?

# 13, Sheila

August 20, 2008, at 10:50.

# 10, ibibuya
Well, as many actually already in recession. Does that mean that we are closer to recovery. It is seen that everything has a double reading is not it?

# 14, Carlos

August 20, 2008, at 11:03.

Well, now plays another bajadita to 5.29. The crisis will end when the Euribor this to 4 and have € 500 more a month to spend.

# 15, optimus

August 20, 2008, at 11:03.

Good morning.

When the employer eats sardines
the worker goes hungry by the corners.

A greeting to all.

+18

# 16, optimus

August 20, 2008, at 11:06.

The real crisis begins the day after collecting the last month of unemployment. The rest are tightening the belt to the extent that we are holes.

+27

# 17, XYZ

August 20, 2008, at 11:12.

They say that normally a period of recession lasts the same time (+ or-) that what has lasted the period of economic boom.

I trust that this might not be the case, because the period of fat has been for many years. So that would mean that skeletal cows ... ... huh?

And if we add to this the economic policy that is being used .... because in order to carry it clear.

The oil going for $ 112, so the Russians can remain calm, but with us the dependency we have on foreign energy What?

Salu2

# 18, Rub

August 20, 2008, at 11:14.

12 Month Euribor (360) 20/08/2008: 5.314

# 19, CARLOS

August 20, 2008, at 11:16.

Euribor today:
12 kk 5314 0013

Increases which is not explained, when the Euribor real time has fallen ... I do not understand anything.

Greetings.

# 20 defense

August 20, 2008, at 11:19.

19:

statements by central banks yesterday in unison stressing that inflation remained high and that the priority is to control it have been able to heat the Euribor

# 21, SirJuan

August 20, 2008, at 11:28.

# 17, XYZ

Now it is time to kill the cow xD

Rise in the Euribor? Neither rise nor fall, this month is clear that the idea is to keep the Euribor by these figures, at least to see how the ECB reacts. After that, in the last speech began to talk about things other than inflation banks are unclear where to go so I will not move. The Euribor 3-day low and then rises by 3 xD back to the figure of last Tuesday, now down 0'001 other day and next week another subidita ... at least until they come out macroeconomic data and banks begin to get wet ...

# 22, Anonymous

August 20, 2008, at 11:29.

# 14, Carlos
The crisis is not termniará when the Euribor is at 4%.
When the Euribor is at 4% will have started the phase of recession in Europe. (And will be the most hard).
# 17, XYZ
Usually in the period of crisis is much shorter than the boom.
On the stock exchange say that a crisis is 180 weeks.
They say this, because of their special virulence has a more pronounced slope, and that is probably of 120 weeks. But come on, people stockbrokers are some pathetic engañagañanes. And their figures and other analysis are regrettable. (Anyone who speaks of investing on the stock today is).

# 23, Anonymous

August 20, 2008, at 11:40.

# 22, Anonymous

You're right, when this 4% Europe will be in recession ... but as we walk changed europe (europe does not grow when we grow, when grown europa we are going down, now it seems that Europe is costing us grow in a free fall ... ) Who can lift us we are starting to head ... you have to be optimistic

# 24, SirJuan

August 20, 2008, at 11:41.

# 23, Anonymous

I have been casting an anonymous jeje, it is mine.

-6

# 25, Tennant

August 20, 2008, at 11:54.

# 22, Anonymous

180, 120 weeks? that if I go wrong accounts signifca from 2.5 to 3.5 years of crisis.
Whether it will last?
No head will rise up to 2012?
On the other hand I do not think the solution is the lower Euribor, as they return to the situation earlier overvaluation of real estate.
There is a lot, but that many people, who without having any idea of the topic has trapicheado and tried to get rich buying and selling of houses. People who are not in the sector, private individuals. I know most of it toward a particular level, without even having a job, piety to financial institutions that did not have money ...

If the Euribor low, I think back to this untenable situation.

I think, and do not kill me, that the ideal situation is to be maintained between 5 and 6%

Salu2

-10

# 26, www.aedru.org

August 20, 2008, at 12:02.

Each family has its own CPI, according to his own cart. Many times, to generalize, you lose the vision of the micro economía.No is the same thing that consumes the largest amount of high technology products, which makes the products with the highest proportion in raw materials or workmanship.

# 27, Sheila

August 20, 2008, at 12:06.

I do not think the ideal situation is a Euribor to 5 or 6. What is clear is that 2% is not positive if it returns to the granting of mortgages ninja. Moreover, that rise or fall in housing prices now that I think gives you the same thing to everyone. I myself if I am offering a flat 30% cheaper than 2 years ago, do not buy or crazy

# 28, myself

August 20, 2008, at 12:06.

"The crises are cyclical simply because it is what it takes men forget their mistakes"

Simply masterful

+21

# 29, Mandy

August 20, 2008, at 12:07.

The breakdown of the construction in Spain.
They do not have scale in Europe to get into the statistics.
http://epp.eurostat.ec.europa.eu/pls/portal/docs/PAGE/PGP_PRD_CAT_PREREL/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008/PGE_CAT_PREREL_YEAR_2008_MONTH_08/4-20082008-EN-AP.PDF
# 25, Tennant Feel free to not leave this up to the 2010 - 2011
(The crisis began in 2007)

# 30, zerro0

August 20, 2008, at 12:09.

Well my humble opinion, next year this time we are no longer agree to the crisis.

I hope that:
1 .- oil drops to 85-95 dollars,
2 .- that the dollar / euro and drop to 1.25-1.30
3 .- that the lower interest rates to 3.50 and 4.00 to get off the Euribor.

Are 3 betting, but 3 betting that may occur.

When you give these 3 circumstances that will:
1 .- begin to consume with joy.
2 .- will start selling the stock of housing that exists.
3 .- Europeans fail to go to U.S. to buy underwear and we will stay in Spain.

And inflation not worry, you'll that with the sharp contraction in consumption that goes into having Christmas in Europe, that if you are going to lower prices in 2009!

The economy is simple. But with so many analysts and from the floor encorbataos offices in 55, it is easy to complicate everything.

A greeting and encouragement that it will not be consoled is pq does not want.

+20

# 31, Johnny

August 20, 2008, at 12:10.

Sheila man, that that "if prices of housing does not mind anyone" I do not think that is very true eh jeje

# 32, Mandy

August 20, 2008, at 12:11.

Eurostat:

'The largest decreases were registered in Ireland (-15.9%) and the United Kingdom (-4.7%). "

Now do some calculations with those percentages that are of the construction on GDP (which is equal to the percentage cojais). Implies that we have not reached the bottom, and extrapolate.
How not going to have people catastrophist?

# 33, Sheila

August 20, 2008, at 12:14.

# 31, Johnny
Men like to say that the price of something to which neither can nor wants a log as it gives a bit alike. To me, if I am told that the price of a Testarrosa it down or go up or leave it like I care very little

-1

# 34, Mandy

August 20, 2008, at 12:18.

# 30, zerro0
I agree with betting, for what and encorbatados Christmas, but do not you comment on the results.
1 .- begin to consume with joy.
Let us remember that the prices of the mortgage is not included in the CPI.
Although we have a receipt less. Prices have risen so much, there's so much unemployment, and manufacturing and services are so weak that it will take more than 2 years to recover.
2 .- will start selling the stock of housing that exists.
Yes, but that does not fix anything.
3 .- Europeans fail to go to U.S. to buy underwear and we will stay in Spain.
That does not represent a threat to our economy. To improve our exports if it is, but we do not export (Germany itself, if they improve).
Come to think that with low Euribor, which we will live better mortgage, but the problem is still there, is great, is structural, and was little escape forward.

# 35, Rex

August 20, 2008, at 12:22.

Last week I was in a hotel with free buffet, all included, and in the attitude of many people, I realized what jackass that many Spaniards and that "virtue" will undoubtedly be transmitted to the processing of their private economies.

People are not able to use just what you can eat, but filling dishes until the buffers and then let the half. It also takes every four pieces of pie for dessert, and then discover that you do not like the cake and leave it all.

Not to mention theft of TV remote controls in the rooms (in a week several hundred), towels, bathrobes and the like. Impresentable, but is that in our country gentuza abounds.

And we want people to be responsible with their economy and consuming? Dan wanted to put these parasites of society on a desert island and Spain remain the culprits.

So we are going.

+48

# 36, Tennant

August 20, 2008, at 12:22.

# 34, Mandy
I'm with you.
I have no mortgage, I can not afford. I can live as a rental (which is almost like a mortgage, but that does not affect the Euribor).

# 37, Johnny

August 20, 2008, at 12:22.

Man, now you can not access (there are always exceptions) but if the people who save and has hopes of catching a house some day at a price "reasonable" you ask if you care to rise or fall in prices of the houses since then will tell you that it

and a resounding yes.

A house is not a Ferrari. Ferrari is lived without luxury, without a roof is going worse ...

So it does matter that fall or rise in prices of homes but now you can not / want to buy that is falling

# 38, Sheila

August 20, 2008, at 12:23.

# 35, Rex
And there's nothing worse than a "new rich"

# 39, petervega

August 20, 2008, at 12:24.

Good.
The blame for what is what is happening around the world.
The banks that lent money without rhyme or reason (well with a lot ton, walks that have not benefited and not getting pasta)
We get up by the neck, as we have two tough in the pocket, we believe the kings of the party, and if I am satisfied with before a floor of 60 meters, until recently the intention was to buy a chalecito, not consumerist comment on what we have become. (I first).
Before us enough to the TV, 29 inch ass, now has to be the latest model of Plame zillions of inches.
Everyone likes to go on vacation, I always can I go 2 times a year.
Before when I was a kid going with my parents, sister, uncles and cousins into the bush to eat.
A couple of weeks to do it again, this time with my parents, sister, brother-in-law and sobrinilla and that eating a potato omelette in the bush is priceless.
If our parents have passed the crisis we spend and how my parents say do not worry that a meal you'll never miss.
Greetings.

+27

# 40, Tennant

August 20, 2008, at 12:25.

Rex

What I said yesterday ...
Your opinions will be just as respectable as those of others, but you should take care of your vocabulary. The same is true with other adjectives more pleasant to the eye. I swear to you! The visual effect is brutal!

# 41, Sheila

August 20, 2008, at 12:29.

# 37, Johnny
I mean that it does not matter now. Clearly the medium to long term it. But, frankly, with which it is falling (unemployment, inflation, the eve of recession, and the Euribor rates by clouds, etc.). You think really the vast majority of people that do not have a flat in "property" is thinking of buying now?. What good is a 30% discount on prices that rose un150% to a person who is frightened by the black perspective

The metaphor has its Testarrona with that. Say what you say owning remains a luxury.

-4

# 42, Rex

August 20, 2008, at 12:30.

# 40 Tennant

The visual effect will be brutal, but the concept is diluted. The outrage you feel at seeing a hundred garrulos behave like pigs in a pigsty in a paradisiacal description is not possible. Besides, I do not think it bothers anyone that tilde in impresentables and gentuza to people who deserve it.

# 43, js

August 20, 2008, at 12:31.

It is true that the attitudes of some people may be paradoxical in their behavior as human beings and their behavior in front of his home microeconomics.

But we are neither judges to define his attitude as "Gilis" we are not enough goals to documenting as something negative on the assumption that our attitude is that which prevails above all. First you have to look in the mirror and, after that, turning to look, lest we realize that skating ...

# 44, Euribor up up!

August 20, 2008, at 12:35.

********************

I strongly recommend that you read to Santiago Becerra Child.

Search the Internet and read about their views.

They are master!

The nails all.

-16

# 45, Euribor up up!

August 20, 2008, at 12:37.

************************

I, during the holidays, I have been reading many of his views he did in July and August 2007 ...

And no faya no. It's very good!

I am a fan of this guy ... Santiago Becerra Child.

-19

# 46, WILLY

August 20, 2008, at 12:38.

Hello everyone .-

Clopez mood. That the Mets do not leave.

Regarding the "cut and paste" feel that they are useful. In my opinion, why do not you do without them.

Until then, my friend.

# 47, Euribor up up!

August 20, 2008, at 12:38.

*************************

I strongly recommend this link:

http://www.burbuja.info/inmobiliaria/burbuja-inmobiliaria/51307-articulos-de-santiago-nino-becerra-post-oficial.html

If you want to know what is the theme of "economy".

-23

# 48, Luisito

August 20, 2008, at 12:39.

Indeed this downturn will forget the mistakes happen and we start from the same point and with the same strategies that have led us to the ...
In the humble opinion of someone who does not even finished the race business, I think we should reflect on the strengths of each region (community, district ...) to make us competitive where it really what we are.
This morning I read an article which said that the future of the Community of Murcia passed for further development in construction, an idea that also extends to other regions.
Let us not be built on the land is infinite, and even more in the Iberian Peninsula, many regions suffer from a lack in supply of drinking water (not drinkable), and depend on the construction sector is dependent entirely on the financial institutions.

I vacation every year in Cabo de Gata and I see as its landscape barely changed over the years in line (decades old ... I), the tourism going until there is faithful and looking for something concrete, clean beaches and a hosting service and restoration reasonably comfortable and quality without reaching the glamuuuur Marbella (glamuuur that has been seized and is a positive and profitable tourist option for the coast of Malaga)

I think we should not promise water where there is none and think about what we are or we can be competitive, diversify and not blindly try to boost a sector such as construction which has shown tremendous weakness, has promoted corruption, has cemented landscapes (the crisis has lowered the number of fires, coincidence?) and has allowed enrriquecerse to people who are not going to pass that wealth into the economy but on his retirement.

The good thing about this crisis is that it will allow us to look to other sectors and will awaken the imagination of those who had been accommodated in his office.

A greeting to all, I learn a lot by reading your articles and comments.

# 49, Tennant

August 20, 2008, at 12:39.

# 42, Rex

Like you're the king of the economy, as you know more than any of us, like you have an incredible wealth of vocabulary, like you've won any contest of words and insults ... well ... more.

But the education classes you skipped.

You can say "impresentables" You can even brand of "gentuza" but what of "gilip ..." until you have to separate with dots so that you do not censor the post. What of the animals tail twisted pink, so you can save.

Like I'm too old, just like I am a Carca ... ... .. but when I was a kid at school we had a specific kind of behavior, education or something like that, I do not remember as LQA called ...

Do not you take a wrong, it is for your own good, to improve your image

Salu2

# 50 , Euribor up up !!!

20 de Agosto de 2008, a las 12:40.

*****************

POR CIERTO…

NO AL CONSUMISMOOOO !!!

AHORRAR, AHORRAR… QUE LO PEOR LLEGARÁ EN 2010.

EN 2009 EL PARÓ ESTARÁ EN EL 15 % Y EN 2010 EN EL 20 %.

Ahí queda eso.

-20

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