The fiestas de Agosto

If something is caracetriza Spain in August is for the feasts of their peoples, taking special importancial of the 15th day of Our Lady of the Assumption and being one of the last La Tomatina (with Web and all) which falls on 27 August in Buñol. It is interesting to see the positive effects of La Tomatina:

The tomatoes that we launched in La Tomatina, not green, ripe but not this past, in this way is easy to crush it before launching it, that if you crush it before we launched, we may do harm to anyone. Although it seems a shit, when people embadurna tomato, somehow this cleaning your skin of impurities, as it is clean and disinfecting acid. The streets of the village, which are of cobblestones, are unpolluted after La Tomatina, as during the year are as everywhere, and you see the passage of the Tomatina, the adoquin is bleaching, has been cleaned with "Tomatina" , Thoroughly clean and disinfect all surfaces.

Fortunately, they do not achieve the party with lemons that they have more acid are also considerably more expensive as this year have risen by 64%

Yesterday we had another feast, this time in the bag that was missing a lot. The Spanish (IBEX) rose by 2.65% and the U.S. (DOW) a 2.94%. The reasons are firstly respite that is giving us the oil and secondly that Bernanke (EDF) is not expected to raise rates this year. I love these guys talk like, as long as clear and concise:

"While the risks to growth remain low, upside risks to inflation are also a significant concern for the Committee"

That using the automatic translator "EDF - Castilian" gives us a:

"I do not know, I do not know"

But any party coming to an end and the hangovers are usually quite hard. Yesterday the French economic daily "The Tribune" published an article titled "In Spain, the holiday has been completed."

The French economic daily La Tribune says in its edition today that "in Spain, the feast is finished," referring to the crisis affecting the Spanish economy. According to the newspaper, despite the current economic slowdown, "the situation is not comparable to the recession" as experienced between 1992 and 1993. On the cover page of the newspaper you can see a portrait in profile of Spanish Economy Minister Pedro Solbes, located under a big headline: "In Spain, the holiday has been completed."

Something I'm reading a lot lately is that this crisis will not be as severe as that of the 92 and seen in perspective, came out of that very reinforced, perhaps in part because of European subsidies that now we do not reach. I would like to see the most veteran of the forum told us that they lived as a crisis because a server is caught doing studying.

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Written by Carlos Lopez on Aug. 6, 2008 with 342 points.



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342 reviews

Read the comments left by other users below, or:

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# 1, Tuniero

August 6, 2008, at 9:17.

Good morning everyone .. and I hope that this crisis will end ... and ... at least we have the oil is slowly coming down ... hopefully spain again be to do a few years ...

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# 2, Rex

August 6, 2008, at 9:24.

For much excuse to make, wasting millions of tomatoes for fun is not a hobby, but an aberration and an insult to the third world.

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# 3, and that's all friends

August 6, 2008, at 9:25.

Well, I also look towards studying, but use the summer to get about 92 "pets". NEVER AGAIN WIN so far so fast

Then came the crisis, the result that all my colleagues who were running out before me, to find a job because of anything earlier than yours (closing businesses, ransacked other debts, etc ...)

One company told me excavations year and a half ago (when the thing got chunga) that the passage in 93 pu .... because they left him to pay several bills since then have insurance to unpaid.

I always what I said "it is not bad to have no work, what mailsimo is that you have not brass"

Really in bad debt and the laaaaargo term recovery is where you can blow up everything.

and the last to turn off the light

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# 4, eugim

August 6, 2008, at 9:27.

I rio I Forero those alarmist and futurists to be given by experts and they said that the petoleo in August to 1.70 or 1.80.

The economy that largely unknown.

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# 5, marathoner

August 6, 2008, at 9:28.

At that time he worked and studied. The crisis was horrible. I dedicate to the building in Barcelona. 6 months before the Olympics start, the phones stopped ringing. Not hiring new works, so in September of 92 we fell in God. So that in 95 suspended our best customer payments and ruined us. We came to losing money to hire works not lay off workers, a disaster.
The phones have stopped ringing. Olympic Games in September and we can be of most blacks. I am really worried. My industry is hit and sunk from a year ago, but always had hoped that other sectors take over and maintain prosperity in this country, but unfortunately a lot of this is not true. If you or someone takes over, leaving the quagmire will be very complicated (at least for me that I do not see any solution in the short term).
The 92 was hard but this also, with the disadvantage that the majority have not experienced a crisis of this nature and not being prepared. Imagine still having suffered in my bones I am still not being fully prepared.
I do not think that we deserve this. A correction was necessary but entirely injsutificable a setting like that we live

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# 6, Almendracao

August 6, 2008, at 9:29.

# 2, Rex

Hey you know the amount of vegetables that are thrown every year in greenhouses or fields because they are not given out in the marketplace?

The problem is not the tomatoes, but the planes / ships / trucks for transport to the third world. Are you going to put you? Are you going to pay the postage ecolojetas oenegeros selling Levis jeans ripped in 60 jail?

Are just some issues that I hope that makes you think.

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# 7, hopefully

August 6, 2008, at 9:34.

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/dureza/crisis/inmobiliaria/obliga/poner/venta/Habitat/elpepueco/20080806elpepieco_2/Tes

Another bankruptcy or who sells or

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# 8, hopefully

August 6, 2008, at 9:35.

where is guru who said in August that would aestar oil to 1.55 ????? bocazas both here and no longer appear and the Euribor to 6? all ready hidden

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# 9, Rex

August 6, 2008, at 9:40.

# 6 Almedreacao

First, tranqulízate, because I'm not an ecologist, but ecological, that is something very different.

Secondly, is that there are no poor people in our country?

Think you, because I think you've meado out of the pot with a disproportionate response. I'm talking about the Tomatina only, not the food that is wasted in supermarkets, markets orestaurantes, and so on. This deserves a point and apart and, yes, I have had the misfortune of seeing in student residences is wasted everything on tirándolo hands full in the trash. At least something should be done.

That the third world also what we have in the Spanish beggar who does not have to eat or ruined by divorce or unemployment. Or the ancianito with a pension of 400 euros before it all goes to rent.

Have you seen ancianitos far-fetched in rubbish bins before?

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# 10, Juanan

August 6, 2008, at 9:40.

For those who reprochais that no longer are the prophets of doom, saying only that he tranquiliceis, we still have a hard end of the year and 2009 will be equal to as little harder than this, things will improve but very slowly, do not sing victory That this has not ended, nor can we fail to half of the movie

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# 11, Almendracao

August 6, 2008, at 9:42.

# 9, Rex

I do not intact, male, and who will pay postage to distribute the tomatoes to the poor beggars and Spanish? Do you?

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# 12, Almendracao

August 6, 2008, at 9:43.

jur jur

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# 13, MGM

August 6, 2008, at 9:44.

For in the COPE just say it was leaked that the Euribor will reach 8% ... I think that this is a political game where some desalmados want to create panic in the face of some futurisimas elections to which I hope will not come to trompicones ..

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# 14, Juanan

August 6, 2008, at 9:45.

As the Euribor arrive here at 8 in Spain there is not a bank, but neither one, nor as we talk about people, it becomes as Soy Legend in New York

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# 15, condonacion_jeje

August 6, 2008, at 9:48.

almendracao:

One thing is the issue of transportation of food and anything else is doing this absurd waste of tomatoes in public .. THE shamelessness NOS pervades SACO

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# 16, Copero

August 6, 2008, at 9:49.

Where are the prophets of doom?.

There I let you detallito of the month and a half ago, with oil at nearly 150 and rising (read it in that context):

# 64, Copero
June 27, 2008, at 10:39.

You are not so catastrophic and put things in their proper term:

IBEX 35: Falling and will continue to decline. Regardless of whether a company's IBEX (repsol rate) hike, businesses, to grow, they need loans. Currently, the credit is very restricted, not only to individuals who ask 40 kilos, but to business, calling billion euros. If you do not grow enough, given the "punishment" of its shareholders. With that as long as you do not open credit, will continue to fall. Indeed, if the actions that have been heard the COPE, was sold in September last year and would have had no losses.

BARREL OIL: Whether you climb Now, what is normal, because in summer fires fuel consumption, typically lower in Autumn. Moreover, much of its price is due to speculation (70% of demand is speculative, compared to 30% which is normal), and if I were speculator, sell now, and that the last penny (and the risk) will lead another, the business is done (twice in one year), which probably will drop much in Autumn and recover equilibrium price in Winter. Thence to the transfer prices fall about 7 months.

INFLATION: Derived from the above, since much of the blame for the current inflation is oil. It is hoped a high value until it falls and a barrel of oil is transferred at prices (at least until March-April next year).

EURIBOR: According to analysts, the late payment is going to triple, with high inflation, until next year, will wait two hikes rates, which banks move immediately, plus an increase in the rate differential between the ECB and Euribor. It is hoped a 6-6,5% (representing a 7% real interest).

Yes, I know this seems a novel that invites the black suicide, but simplifying, as I said Mano H2O, which should identify the causes, symptoms, and implement solutions.

Ultimately, the cause of all this is the subprime crisis, mortgages garbage. This led to the money left brick to search for other havens best (oil was $ 70). Due to the opacity of banks in the securitization of mortgages, etc, etc, the banks are not relying on one another, and close the tap of credit (which was subsequently transferred to the consumer) to increase the differential with the Euribor and drowning rates to consumers and businesses. Also, having a lot of demand for black gold, its price soars, and hence inflation. This is the cause.

One possible solution which will not apply: to improve transparency in the bank, bringing to light the entities that have a higher risk and quantify, for which outside those entities, loans between banks to be more fluid and reduce the differential. Will suffer the more mortgaged, but the rest will be a relief.

Of course, a lower corporate taxes, to revive the economy and consumption, and not pantonima to increase the supply of public works (very Keynesian, yes sir), which as demonstrated in the U.S. in the crisis of 29, led to the subsequent depression.

I regret having had this rollazo, but sometimes it is better to speak out for olerse where shots are going to go, what to think of the Champions League in the economy and make a cake against the harsh reality.

In short: one or two anita ill, and then, if the duties are done, we can try to recover.

And it almost to the subscribiría complete even today.

Sincerely yours.

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# 17, condonacion_jeje

August 6, 2008, at 9:49.

Euribor to 8%? pos and you know thousands of tents in the streets jajajajajaaj

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# 18, flaquita

August 6, 2008, at 9:50.

Jo with the crisis of ninety-three, four, five, six ...

It was not two Anita, was no more, I ate the entirely, and the truth, this is very different, or at least I'm experiencing different.

Then there was a halt in all sectors and it was difficult to find what would work and with the salary that would be, given equal, if you needed work was the same waiter that of goalkeeper, but there was no work at all.

People in general was concerned, and consumption slowed in dry and widespread: Terrazas, shops, cinemas, etc., everything was semivacío, do not have to queue for nothing.

I caught 93, working at a computer company, (subsidized courses, integrated applications to measure and sale of equipment), and the truth, did not work or courses subsidized by the Generalitat of Catalonia (as you will see the company was, and I was in Barcelona).

Today, my job is more stable (I think), but anyway, although people talk of crisis, I do not see that so many belts tight, people who live more then (something which I think wonderful), and although the consumption in general has been reduced, is not as dramatic as it was then, that we are going to show a button, then a christening or a communion made in the field with good ribs ....

I think that we have not yet seen the teeth to this crisis, and in September (end) and we will mourn for many people, there will be when we start to see the fangs sharp, ready to bite left and right until filled.

I hope wrong.

That the force will accompany

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# 19, condonacion_jeje

August 6, 2008, at 9:52.

yet we have not seen the real crisis .... that will start in September and we'll see far ... ..

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# 20, mary

August 6, 2008, at 9:55.

I was in my era of the 90 student I remember my parents really have a bad, in fact they are autonomous and had nothing less than to feed a large family ... Thank God we all missed a hand and we could move forward.

If the thing is kept well within a few days we will see our wonderful president of the government taking advantage of the situation to communicate the good work of your government ... MORE LIES

Do not confiéis with the downs that are happening these days, we will soon put another palazo that we no longer friends ... apretaros the dry belt.

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# 21, Copero

August 6, 2008, at 9:55.

# 14 Juanan.

I worry about the Euribor plus a 7% next year to an 8% within 4 years. For within four years, and with these inflation (and where wages are consistent with "something" for inflation), the purchasing power of that family should have increased by 15% at least, more or less the increase in the amount of the mortgage would be offset by the wage increase (which is the economic effort would increase but not too much). However, a Euribor to 7% at the end of this year without wage increases envisaged would be a massacre, because there is nothing that can offset the increase in some of the mortgage.

(Which you know tighten the nuts these people, we express, but without drowning, so we can continue squeezed. Work and consumption, cursed, work and consumption !!!).

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# 22, MGM

August 6, 2008, at 9:56.

As they like to pound some .. to benefit the collective will of cardiologists?

http://www.libertaddigital.com/economia/no-publicarvivienda-augura-que-el-euribor-subira-hasta-el-8-por-ciento-en-2012-1276335900/

The graph of the effective rates is the pump, especially when mixed with churros merino ...

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# 23, Angel

August 6, 2008, at 9:56.

2 # Rex,
"For a lot of excuses to make, wasting millions of tomatoes for fun is not a hobby, but an aberration and an insult to the third world."

Use-3 eggs to make an omelette French also

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# 24, ANO-Nimo (Holiday)

August 6, 2008, at 9:57.

Hello everybody,

In my crisis of 92 caught me but I remember that very cryo on the beach where I went in Valencia, who were making a few villas left half built, leaving the structure and little more.
Several years later and finished the half regalaos sold.

Now I have commented that a lot of cracks and structural problems.

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# 25, jdx

August 6, 2008, at 9:57.

Luckily, I can not speak about the crisis of 92 because, in EGB, and my concerns were basketball, cycling, and chiquillas ... jejeje

what if I can speak / say, is the current one thing I can tell, nobody knows anything, neither here nor in any site, nor analysts, nor future, neither economic nor fans. You can zoom in more or less, but everyone says theirs, and any sound, logical. so funny is that analistos, billed to say what they say, rightly or not. I did the shit on my Curran, as many are family .. but they will not change the speech and off, what is yours!
Euribor; go down low, climbs, climbs rise, and is maintained or low.
types: more predictable
Oil: In summer, 150dolares since the end of the year, to 200. what we read in all media ad nauseam. the same as today, titled in less than a month, will be in 100dolares. ¿¿?

there is only one sure thing in this life, we all end up in the same place, and I see that today's economy, ranging at times, and there are so many factors that may tilt to one site and another that escapes us. What I believe is that if the oil, although it says, and it is true that is a luxury, and a scarce and not infinite, it was illogical to triple in 3 years, falls under its own weight. was speculation, or bubble, and also has finished petando, for the economy, which can not endure these prices.
I only hope that the need to do their homework. think: if a $ 147 oil, look what has been assembled, when really scarce, or is being completed (or god knows when that moment will arrive) or cost $ 300 a barrel will happen? I hope that alternatives are taken seriously and also because, to not depend so many of the oil. And the logistics, change of model, because it is bestial the amount of trucks burning diesel fuel that are on the roads.
And this crisis that we have now, I think as I say, that touch bottom after the summer, September-October, batiremos record unemployment, inflation, and then aver that happens. I doubt that 2009 is worse, as far as elfinal this. What if it's true, is that when we received paste europe, we have spent on everything except what was really needed, or at least, as it caught the moment. We must sow, to pick. If this had been invested in other sectors, now would not be so, and it is also fucking now invest the money in something, q gives its fruit in the medium-long term, because while? live air? or q?
Finally, each to draw their conclusions ....

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# 26, MURDOK

August 6, 2008, at 9:58.

# 16, Copero

Oil is down, yes, but we must bear in mind that with the diesel oil to 147 and was at 1.31 today with the diesel oil to 1.18 to 1.26 this before bringing the giant of speculation repsol oil and other inflation will continue through the roof.

On the other hand say you are expecting 2 more rate hikes, is not where you get those, I believe there will be no rise in most years, the TRANCHETES rate rises by inflation and this is going to go from deflating this month.

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# 27, condonacion_jeje

August 6, 2008, at 9:58.

angel:

bufonadas to say that the comedy club ...

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# 28, Rex

August 6, 2008, at 9:59.

# 11.12 Almendracao

There is so blind as those who will not see. Mix with merino follows churros at this level does not discuss with you. We speak pears and potatoes on my answer. If you are so-solidarity with the poor at least have the decency to shut up and do not prove it, because doing something is better than doing nothing for a slight problem of transport.

I am talking about everyone on their own can do something, for starters, you give them food on the poor. And you can walk, because in my neighborhood there are many who sleep in the street. Another thing is that in your ivory tower do not want to see that, while you atocinas ham, others have no bread to put into your mouth.

You CÁRITAS sounds something? Does the RED CROSS? And VILLAGES FOR CHILDREN?

Please have more respect.

# 17 Remission jeje

I have gone to cnn and do not say that the Euribor will be at 8% in 2012, but this is an anticipation of the Minister of Housing. that is, not going to happen or CONAE, because the rulers have little idea ...

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# 29, kokito

August 6, 2008, at 10:00.

Good night, vietnam

There are times that those Clopez.
By then had 22 years, for family affairs had stopped studying, and it took 5 years working with the military but by in the middle.

Note that in that year I got a contract fixed at a hospital in Barcelona making of Health, and among friends was a privilege because almost all were studying.
92 charged in February (I will seek to keep the payroll) ... .., net 128,900 pesetas.
He lived for someone with my sister and a friend, paying among the three 46,000 pesetas.
Do not you see that we pegábamos feasts at home.
The truth is that I did not notice anything the crisis is over despite family problems, I spent a great time.
Regarding the economy does not remember much, I lived in the world of Yupi.
Not as far as I know a little more and we see the headaches je, je, je.
By then there was Mr Euribor.
The truth is hardly knew people who had owned an apartment, that was for the rich, at least among my acquaintances.

A yes, a curious thing, I bought the first stereo CD player with the first payment, and the second gave him a pata negra ham to my grandmother.
TV who was not carrying remote control, and did not have either car or motorcycle.
Nor was the Internet, but I was needed.

See you later

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# 30, Coquina

August 6, 2008, at 10:00.

if they have not been able to foresee anyone on the Euribor one year, saying that now come out in four years at 8%, which also tell us that we can buy shares ... and I say this so we can give the pelotazo and draw a dinerito, I signed mortgage now and I believe that passage of the Euribor and I'm going to libor (not if, yen or Swiss francs).

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# 31, condonacion_jeje

August 6, 2008, at 10:00.

prevision of the minister? jajajaja m and then KEDO more trankilo XDDDD

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# 32, sharp

August 6, 2008, at 10:00.

Euribor what's between 6 and 8% is a possible prevision of the ministry of housing
"These reports belie the government of Housing and augured Euribor 8%"

http://www.libertaddigital.com/noticias/noticia_1276335900.html

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# 33, Angel

August 6, 2008, at 10:03.

# 27, condonacion_jeje
August 6, 2008, at 9:58.

angel:
bufonadas to say that the comedy club ...

Excuse me, I had forgotten that this is the forum for culture and respect, all we wanted to express is that ordinary people, normalita, little can be done by the third world (except sponsor and things like) if magnates authentic look the other way.

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# 34, Rex

August 6, 2008, at 10:04.

# 23 Angel

I suppose you're on vacation and the neurons do not have very awake at this hour, so I will not have in mind the Paridae you said.

Best regards.

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# 35, axa

August 6, 2008, at 10:04.

dependence on oil?

q The decree will take the government with regard to renewable energy is not wasted.

Yesterday I saw an interview on Bloomberg Television at José María González, president distributors renewable energies, it seems they will limit the production of this sector, the photovoltaic and reduce production by lasprimas, logically speaking q termirnarian such companies in other countries, not in Spain.

manufacture oil, but not of the napier of the Spaniards did not, no.

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# 36, axa

August 6, 2008, at 10:07.

So putting solar wafers in Moncloa in eleccciones uy then paste them shot in the neck and back, q nice.

You should be promised to chavez q going to buy more oil ael and less to those of the turban.

santander that if the outside of venezuela. vendere my actions before q fall more.

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# 37, Murdok

August 6, 2008, at 10:08.

# 32, sharp

The Euribor to 6% -8% jajja, I have an uncle who works in the field, said that from here at 4 months are going to give the orange watermelon, please that this forum is saying serious things ...

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# 38, jdx

August 6, 2008, at 10:08.

# 35, axa
As always, we pegaremos the host country's largest petro-dependent, the other will have the alternative at hand, but here, until we really pete, no solution will, as always. Before we come to pick fryer oil for biofuel for all Spaniards who invest or seek alternatives ....

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# 39, Juanan

August 6, 2008, at 10:09.

# 21, Copero

Well, you have not said anything illogical and that we can not understand. What's the Euribor to 8% I imagine that is referred to a very short period of time rather than 4 years, so we would be screwed, but would not be alone, we would accompany our friends in the banks within 4 years ... .. overcome this year and a half-two years that we have and then we'll see if we like

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# 40, Kane

August 6, 2008, at 10:11.

Not really if an 8% Euribor destroy Spain. If you make today is possible, but if it goes up 8% came in a couple of Anita with what people leave something better.

Well to tell if they destroy ask help from you all. Could pay your current mortgage intenereses with about 8.5% of that is roughly half the Euribor + differential.

I could even afford the money they would need to spend my girlfriend and I would be 56% of our current salaries.

And bear in mind that when I could afford to get in extreme case of having to rent a room, eating at home with parents or the like. That is what is done before losing your home.

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# 41, curious

August 6, 2008, at 10:14.

I lived in the 92-94 on a family and remember only the effort that was made in my house to go ahead (we had business itself).
Explore a little further developments of this crisis, I think we came out stronger because in the years after rising consumption exponentially, and "believe" a flow of money that was stopped in 92.

but ...

I think we are coming now is very different, that excessive consumption we have already done and that is still consuming (unless, of course) and that everything is well and note the break. (In fact the service sector is the highest unemployment created.)

I understand that in order to overcome this crisis is not valid the same medicine as the previous one, consumption is not the way, but for now is the only way, as the current model.

hay miles de cosas que se consumen sin razón, que no aportan nada y no son necesarias, que deberán dejar de consumirse y dar más importancia a otras.

es la filosofía de aportar valor… pero… que es valor para ti? que es valor para mi? que es valor para él?

el concepto de valor tiene demasiadas lecturas como para dogmatizarlo

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# 42 , condonacion_jeje

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:15.

al 8 % se podra pagar pero teniendo en cuenta q solo podras pagar las facturas y la comida todo sera ira al carajo y al paro to dios con lo cual nadie podra pagar a ese interes…

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# 43 , Lo avisé

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:16.

Hablaba Carlos ayer de relidades y deseos. En este for mucha gente se metía con los “cipotecados” porque los pisos se iban a acabar regalando. Pues, de momento, las bajadas son ridículas, afectan a pisos que ni se vendieron en el boom ni se venderán ahora. Y, a todo esto, los alquileres (que ellos decían que bajarían) están empezando a tomar el relevo
http://www.euribor.com.es/2008/08/06/las-fiestas-de-agosto/#comments

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# 44 , eltonto

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:17.

Título de hoy del diario El País:
“La dureza de la crisis inmobiliaria obliga a poner a la venta Habitat”

El título correcto sería:
“El endeudamiento irresponsable de Habitat provoca otra cesación de pagos”

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# 45 , Recio

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:18.

Según un enlace puesto anteriomente LD dice que el ministerio de vivienda predice un 8% de euribor.
No me creo ni lo que predice el ministerio de economía como para creerme lo que dice el ministerio de vivienda. Que se dediquen a predecir cuantas viviendas se van construir en 2009. Que dejen las predicciones economicas al ministerio de Solbes (que es el que tiene derecho a equivocarse).

Te nombro vicepresidente económico…….en el nombre de padre del espirt…….amen

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# 46 , Copero

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:18.

#26 Murdock

Buenos días:

El post es de hace mes y medio, no recuerdo si ya se había producido la última subida. En cualquier caso voy a adaptar la respuesta que dí en su día a la situación actual:

Primeramente, para el que no lo sepa y esté leyendo ésto, recalcar que el euribor es una media del precio al que se prestan el dinero los principales bancos europeos, es decir, no lo fija el BCE, aunque se apoye “algo” en este valor.

¿Por qué se apoya “algo” en este valor?. Porque, los bancos, como no son ONGs y algo tienen que ganar, cogen el dinero a este precio y le añaden un diferencial. Si todo el mundo pagase y la economía fuese boyante, como en 2004, por ejemplo, este diferencial sería mínimo, el medio punto más o menos que había entonces, con lo que con el 4,25% actual, el euribor estaría al 4,75 %.

Por qué ha aumentado este diferencial? Pues básicamente, como hay mayor riesgo al prestarse el dinero, hay que “compensar ” posibles pérdidas. De hecho, la morosidad se ha duplicado en lo que va de año. Por eso se ha pasado de un diferencial de 0,5 a otro de 1,25.

Después de este rollo, que posteriormente justificará mis previsiones del 6-6,5 %, hablamos de los tipos del BCE. La inflación en la zona euro, según los últimos valores, es algo superior al 4%. la política de estabilidad monetaria de la UE, cuyos objetivos de inflación son del 2%, se encuentra con una inflación del 4%, la única herramienta en manos de Trichet para bajar dicho valor es aumentar tipos de interés, y como dije hace unos días, si yo fuera él, no subiría tipos a la espera de ver que pasa con las sucesivas bajadas del petróleo (aunque según su manual debería, y al menos en medio punto). Pero ten por seguro que como la inflación no baje (y no tiene visos de hacerlo, al menos hasta que las bajadas del petróleo se trasladen a precios, más o menos 6 meses) se verá obligado a subirlos.
Sólo un parón en el consumo a nivel europeo puede pararlo, pero en este caso es salir de la sartén para caer en las brasas.

Con este panorama, espera una o dos subidas (más o menos medio punto), que se trasladará directamente a euribor. Además súmale algún cuarto, pues los expertos preveen que la morosidad se va a triplicar (respecto a la base de 2007), y ahí tienes un 6-6,5% de índice de referencia (7% de valor real efectivo de la hipoteca).

No es que sea un 6% ista, ni piense que puede subir a valores del 8%, pues sólo una hecatombe a nivel europeo podría producirlo, y de momento Europa se comporta más o menos, es aplicar la lógica.

Por supuesto, si mañana EEUU invade Irán o algo parecido, todas estas hipótesis quedarían invalidadas.

Un cordial saludo.

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# 47 , jdx

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:21.

#40, Kane
“Podriais pagar vuestra hipoteca actual con unos intenereses de 8.5% que viene a ser el euribor + diferencial medio.”
—-
podría pagarlo yo tambien, pero aportando casi un 55% de mis rentas actuales de mi pareja y yo. (casi casi como tu….jejej q potra)
lo cual encuentro una bestialidad, pero si la gente va ahogada al 5.3, no me quiero imaginar al 8, ya te lo adelanto yo: españa se va al garete de verdad, y tanto da creo hoy que dentro de 2-3 años, o acaso, tu ves una gran mejoria en corto plazo (1-2 añitos?) yo no.
como dirian alguien, virgencita, que me quede como estoy!

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# 48 , lo avisé

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:22.

Perdón, éste es el enlace bueno
http://www.lavozdegalicia.es/arousa/2008/08/06/0003_7039987.htm

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# 49 , cob

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:24.

En el año 92, yo ya habia terminado la carrera y era totalmente impensable encontrar trabajo y menos para alguien con el titulo tan fresco, en ese momento pense en trabajar en cualquier cosa aunque no tubiera nada que ver con lo mio, ya no podia depender mas tiempo de mi madre y necesitaba la independencia que te da el dinero. Asi que a la desesperada monte mi propia empresa en sociedad con mi hermana. fue la mejor decision que pude tomar, los primeros años fueron duros porque la crisis no dejaba levantar cabeza, pero surgimos junto a la economia y con muy poca competencia en estos 14 años he aprendido entre otras cosas que hay que aprobechar cualquier oportunidad y cambiar de planes si es necesario, para poder adaptarse a las circustancias.
Los intereses por entonces estaban al 7,5 y tube que pedir bastante dinero, que como ocurre ahora no lo prestaban ni en broma.
Pero por otro lado habia menos competencia y mas oportunidades, suporgo que porque hacia mucho tiempo que no habia un booom y eso habia sostenido los precios y la gente en general no estaba tan espabilada como ahora. Sinceramente ahora no se si seria capaz de empezar como lo hice en el 93.

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# 50 , eltonto

6 de Agosto de 2008, a las 10:26.

Estuvimos meses intentando no pronunciar la palabra CRISIS.
Hace años que no se usa la palabra ESTAFA.

Sería bueno recordar para siempre (para no hacer ningún negocio con ellos) a los propietarios de Habitat:
Figueras, Suñol, Ortega, Andic, Castro, Rodés y Cuatrecasas.

Chiste obvio y tontón: ¿Porqué no saldan la deuda vendiendo “Cuatrecasas”?

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