August 2008
You're watching the articles of Euribor for the month of August 2008.
We have always said that the Japanese when they strike they do is work even more cause for over-production and thus cause serious economic damage to the company because this is a stock that can not place.
Perhaps because of the image we have of the Japanese, this idea has been with us, but unfortunately this is an urban legend since what typically do is work hard with less causing bugs in products.
To check if it is true, I searched the last strike held in Japan, found the following news: The Japanese fishing fleet in janethegreat strike by the rise of crude oil.
Tokyo, Aug 18 (EFECOM) .- The members of the two major associations of fishing janethegreat Japan suspended its work today to protest against oil prices, according to local news agency Kyodo.
As we can see, do not get to fish like crazy if they leave the boats moored well.
Something strange is happening in the world, when they do strikes really are the Japanese and those who make the alleged strikes were the Italians Japanese, we see this news yesterday: free pizza in Naples to protest high prices.
"Pizzaioli", or pizzeros chefs, gave away pizzas in Naples on Wednesday to protest the high prices charged by competitors, whom they accuse of exploiting the rise in prices of raw materials to swindle the consumers.
The prices of raw materials such as fuel, have fallen from record last month before concerns about global demand from consumers and businesses while the global economy deteriorates. But prices for retail not yet reflect this trend.
Again the same thing as always, the constant increase in prices and excellent excuse is that the rise of oil. Usually we blame the gas stations and multinational these increases, however they to be in the spotlight all tend to move with caution its pricing policy, is possibly in the small business (such as pizza parlors of those who complain Italians) the most is taking advantage of this situation.
Turning to the topic by country, we have always thought that the Internet is for the Nordic countries that spend all day at home as they connected on the street makes a scratch that does not stop there who, curiously Spaniards are the second country in Europe to more hours spent on the network, namely 25 hours per month.
The figure puts them in second place behind the European ranking of Britons who spend 28.5 hours per month on average in the web.
Below Dutch, French and German with more than 23 hours per month. By contrast, in last position are Irish Internet users with 14.6 hours per month, Austrians and Russians with 16 hours, and the Danes with 16.8 hours.
That world, the Japanese really do strikes, Italians and Spaniards give away pizzas prefer a PC and a bar.
Perhaps the cause of so much time in front of the computer because it is within what it is cheap. Today is the end of the month at 11:15 and know the average Euribor August. The media carried by publishing the data for several days and time will be asked: Does the Euribor has plateaued? For now, mortgages are still scratching their pocket.
They were already five months of panic that the upward trend of the Euribor tip to all those who keep alive a mortgage loan reviewable. Now that the evolution of the benchmark for the calculation of most mortgages in Spain is something softer, which had been terror remains a serious anxiety.
This is because, although the monthly payment will be more expensive than a year ago, the index is at levels higher than then, there is a more favorable trend in the coming months. The experts even talk that he might close the year at around 5.1%.
We will have to be attentive to "the experts" of whom certainly speaks the comment of the week:
# 7, Flipper
August 27, 2008, at 9:44. What I do not understand is that a few gentlemen who are devoted to analyzing the economy, to make predictions, opinions and analysis in the short, medium and long term, which will involve specialists , And that they live, they fail more than a shotgun fair.
I do not think this or that decent people are giving information and painting scenarios, which then is not that a little mistake, is that, rightly or not far away.
What are based to make these forecasts? Because clearly, then a Currito as I read the business press, and read and listen to these gentlemen and decides to act according to what they say these experts, and that the poor ordinary people can cost us a lot of money.
Which is that the end is my (our) money with what they're playing. If on the basis of these forecasts decides to buy an apartment now instead of within 3 years, or invest in venture capital, or buy a particular action ... Then the next day go so quiet and say 'hey no, that what I said Yesterday the crisis, that is not going to last for only 3 months, which will be 10 years, and shares of Mattel that have not risen, which have fallen 20% so it no longer invirtáis in them. " And UNO, which had decided to stick around ahorritos on what these "experts" had recommended, it loses a paste, and these men continue to earn his salary?
If I did my job badly I would fall bronzes, suspensions and salary employment and even fired me, and these gentlemen ... what?
The prediction that this makes the analyst, who won a dough, I find it laughable, that any of us can do this while we take a coffee: Mattel passing GM in market capitalization ... yes, of course, is that the crisis is a purchase a barbi but did not buy a car, and barbi worth less than the Play Station. From laughter!
Tomorrow the shares of Mattel down 10% and the specialist on duty will say: "Yes of course, is that the ongoing crisis there, children play hide-and camber, instead of buying a barbie." And you face in your house with lettuce seeing just lose equismil euro reversed yesterday on the advice of that analyst.
Good weekend to all.
Written by Carlos Lopez on August 29, 2008 with 273 comments
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Yesterday we talked about the 100 years that General Motors will undoubtedly meet today, a bad deal. So now we have to talk about another bad deal that also satisfies the century, it is the first oil well in Middle East which was built in Iran and was without doubt a lousy deal because it ceded to the British 60 years, by just 75,000 $.
"Nobody can be proud of that part of the history of the United Kingdom in Iran," said the vice president of investments of the Iranian National Oil Company, Ghanimi Fard.
Perhaps, as I began the week talking about the optimism we should see it as an excellent deal for the British. However, the Iranians are still somewhat resentful of that treatment, however with a 5% of the world's oil reserves and would like to interact more with the world, for the account that brings us all.
"If not, who is going to be more prejudiced? I have no doubt that the living standards of many European countries is going to be affected in the long run if they do not have sufficient energy resources, "said Fard.
Speaking of oil yesterday Obama suggested an interesting and risky proposal "to combat the crisis with the strategic oil reserves"
"We should sell 70 million barrels of crude oil from our Strategic Petroleum Reserve and replace them with less expensive crude, which in the past has cut the price of gasoline in two weeks," Obama said during a speech in Lansing , Michigan
To which, Mc Cain replied:
"The strategic petroleum reserve is to guarantee the national security of U.S. and not as an electoral strategy for Obama, "said Tucker Bonds, a spokesman for McCain said in a statement.
Interesting debate should use the strategic oil reserves to manipulate their price? What better strategy than to take a cheap oil?.
Otherwise we have a lot in Spain is of strategic reserves of housing, namely 900,000 empty according to an analysis of the official publication ICE (Information Business Spanish).
The data in the report have been prepared on the basis of a comparison between the number of housing units (new) and the homes created in recent years, counting it as a source for the information provided by the National Statistics Institute (INE) And initially result reflects that since 2001 have been built 1.8 million new homes that can be considered 'non-core' because they do not live their owners. The authors of the study, however, fine-tuned many of the houses built are second homes in the strict sense, "and therefore can not be considered as empty as their owners deal with the sporadic form. According to their findings, in this situation would be about 900,000 new homes, so the remainder (up to 1.8 million) can be considered as empty.
Of course, not all vacant apartments were purchased to be sold, some were even made to live in them as a second home.
Meanwhile, we have 63% of households that spend more than 40% of their monthly income to pay their debt.
The percentage of households that spend more than 40% of their monthly income on financial payments grew in the first four months of the year from 47% to 63% as a result mainly of increases in interest rates, according to the Agency Negotiator Product Banking.
So if it seems that we will have is a September movidito, you know the month of a return to reality and true cost of the year.
The first days of September will have a "real impact" for thousands of Spanish families, as to expenditures in the summer and return to school for the children will join a further rise in the share of the mortgage, at an average of 500 euros a year.
So you know, take advantage of these last days of August.
UPDATE: Index Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) in Spain stood at his annual rate to 4.9% in the month of August, four tenths less than in the previous month, as a consequence, above all, the moderation of crude , According to the advance indicator developed by the National Statistics Institute (INE)
Written by Carlos Lopez on August 28, 2008 with 189 comments
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General Motors was founded by businessman William Durant made just 100 years and currently has 327,000 employees, its main brands are Buick, Cadillac, Chevrolet, GMC, GM Daewoo, Holden, Hummer, Oldsmobile, Opel, Pontiac, Saab, Saturn Corporation and Vauxhall Motors. With a very interesting history, came to become the largest corporation registered in the United States in terms of their income in relation to GNP and was the first U.S. corporation to make over 1,000 million dollars a year.
Mattel was founded in 1945 by Harold Matson and Elliot Handler (hence the name "Matt-El") being one of its top selling doll Barbie (born in 1959 and with a boyfriend since 1961) and Matchbox toys and strollers Hot Wheels.
As you can see, two very different and apparently very different in size. A couple of months ago, I read the surprising news that Mattel passing General Motors in market capitalization for the first time. I mean, if you go shopping checkbook in hand, turns out cheaper to buy all the GM that the matrix of Barbie and Kent.
"Hot Wheels and Matchbox toys are low-priced commodities, and attract consumers in the United States and especially in poorer countries that can not possibly buy more expensive toys," he said yesterday in an e-mail Sean McGowan, toy analyst Needham & Co.. in New York and recommended the purchase of shares of Mattel.
While Mattel will start to go things more or less well (despite being in losses), GM is facing its centennial in his situation more difficult.
Currently, General Motors is a company short-lost nearly 10,000 million euros in the second quarter of the year and 26,299 million more over the year 2007 - weighed down by its domestic business, which for decades turned it into a colossus. The address is dumped in a tough program of internal restructuring, both from the plan costs, and from the point of view and from the organizational chart of the product range. Its market capitalization is far from what it means: Today the company is worth just U.S. $ 5633 million (3,807 million euros). Toyota, to name a few, worth 100,000 million, Volkswagen, 70,780 million, the Spanish construction company ACS, 10,128 million, Banco Sabadell, 6487 million.
As you can see, a very worrying situation for which was the largest American company.
If GM has a year and is not at all well, here we have the crisis that turns 1 and remains as strong as the first day, that's what we are told in Cotizalia: No signs of recovery a year after the financial crisis will at worst, and last long.
The financial crisis just completing their first birthday should have ended long time ago, according to forecasts that authorities and analysts have launched during that time. However, the picture is exactly the opposite. There is no sign of improvement, but the indicators suggest a further deterioration after the truce experienced some this spring. And most experts suggest that the situation will worsen still further until it is quite see the light at the end of the tunnel, which is not expected before 2010 at least.
And the truth is that the data coming out every day are not good, today for example we have the Spanish GDP grows one-tenth that between April and June, the lowest rate in 15 years intertrimestrial.
The growth intertrimestrial was two tenths below the increase recorded in the previous quarter and less than eight tenths achieved a year ago, when the Spanish economy grew by 0.9% in the rate intertrimestrial.
Therefore, given the liquidity situation we have, it is best to look for money within the sea: Spain takes the helm and decides to plant ahead of the 'cazatesoros'.
"Thanks to our pluricentenaria imperial history, the Spanish heritage is perhaps the largest in the world," explained elEconomista sources from the Ministry of Culture.
That is, folks. Colon us out of the crisis.
Written by Carlos Lopez on August 27, 2008 with 131 comments
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Many times we have asked about here, what to do in the event we have liquidity because, as the market very few options that give us security and profitability.
A financial product that is getting very fashionable lately are the ETFs (Funds Quoted on the Stock Exchange) since joining the advantages of investing in equities (simplicity, liquidity and trading on the Stock Exchange) with those of traditional funds (diversification, exposure to a sector or country with a single product.) Its investment policy is to replicate a stock index or otherwise as long as it is financial. That is, you can replicate a stock index, fixed income, raw materials, national (Ibex 35, Dax Xetra, S & P 500, etc.), sectoral, and so on. For example, we have in the Spanish market of ETFs that replicate the major stock market indices for Chinese, Indian, Russian and East European markets such as the Czech Republic or Poland
These funds are generally managed by software and how well they realized the other day in Cotizalia, funds robot: the ETFs in Europe for the first time exceeded 100,000 million euros of assets.
The machines do not feel, nor suffer, for the moment, the financial crisis. Faced with the collapse of the heritage in traditional investment funds, the funds' contributions, or ETFs, traded in Europe experienced an increase in the volume handled by 3.2% to 100,890 million euros, according to data from Lipper - Reuters Thomson 30 June 2008. This is a milestone, as it is the first time that the figures rise above the 12 digits, more than 100,000 million
In Five Days also echo the huge figure behind these funds.
The increase is of particular merit, as the value of the assets have been damaged by the strong backs of the bags in the period. In fact, the Ibex 35 was left a 20.65% in the first six months of the year. In fact, to find the secret of his success there to resort to the boom of the bass players or inverse ETF, which, precisely, have the virtue of winning the fall of the index. Thus, the segment that includes these funds was the one who attracted the most money during the first six months of the year, while growing 21.58%.
When one thinks of investing on the stock, usually think of buying a basket of shares and expected to rise. It is part of economic optimism that we all, but we also have many options to reverse the downward slice and draw in times of crisis. There are many options for that but maybe one of the simplest are the ETFs.
If you wonder about the bank's investment options, we will show hundreds of possibilities, shares in his own bank, companies in which it has invested, funds replicating the IBEX, fixed income, and so on. But even in the worst moments in which the bag falls to lead (as now, we're close to the minimum in two years) and having many options to bet on low, we never try to sell a fund inverse why always Analysts talk about price increases down when we can win? What is this eternal optimism unfounded? Will we, nevertheless optimistic by nature?.
Drawing upon the human race from wikipedia we throw away yesterday (Punset) I find this interesting article: Our optimistic nature.
What we are discovering in the laboratories is that we behave so optimistic, but the reality is indicating otherwise. We are optimistic by nature. That is, invariably optimistic that sin not to sumirnos avatars in intimate caused by depression and pessimism. Evolutionarily, things have been so harsh that those bodies modeled by current optimistic arriving in greater numbers to fruition. To survive we delude ourselves to making us believe that the future will be easier than now. Expect to generate positive news and pictures with them mentally seductive, adaptive play a role: we model the behavior of the objective function in future.
Apparently, magnetic resonance, found the area of the brain that makes us behave well.
"Our results suggest that while the past is closed, the future is open to interpretation, which allows people to take away from possible negative events and move closer towards those who are positive"
Without doubt, an entire field to explore the neuroeconomistas.
Meanwhile, try to look with optimism to news of the day:
Written by Carlos Lopez on August 26, 2008 with 148 comments
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Whatever the blog and forum where you goals, there will always be two groups faced. Linux users against Windows users against Progressive Conservatives, merengue against Culès, spidermaniacos against batmaniacos, rented against mortgaged, playstationeros against xboxeros and nuncabajistas against bubbles.
Yesterday, Punset tried to respond in El Pais weekly to the question of why we split up into groups.
The herds are dog and chimpanzees are very loyal to their group, but unlike humans, these animals do not decide which of the other group are good or bad depending on their flags, but of some interest as the territory or sexual selection. Probably, we are the only species that behaves in one way or another on the basis of symbols. In addition, all our affiliations overlap. We have more than one way to qualify: by nation, language, sex or age group. It is also fascinating to see that we remain human divided into categories such as gender or ethnicity, but not by other standards such as left and right handed or ups and downs. This suggests that this is a special way of thinking. And the thought, like the soul, is in the brain.
The article does not give us the answer to this behavior so bizarre, but what do we have here is that they often talk about what they are talking, we find two clear groups. It does not matter if you come together here to discuss two men who are both white, of atleti, centrists and fans of the beatles it is safest to end up arguing because one was rented and the other mortgaged, instead of talking about how much that unites them. Strange is not it?.
Rescue another piece of the article:
Probably more damage has been inflicted because of the loyalties of individuals to a specific tradition, to a race or a religion because of economic change. However, everyone says that the rich and the multinationals are guilty of the evils that afflict us, as the difference of class or poverty.
That's right. The blame for all the other group has a spot, never ours. In economics the culprits are multinational corporations and information technology is Bill Gates
In the markets we also have two elements are easily identified, buyers and sellers who struggle faced under the law of supply and demand. It appears that at the moment are the buyers who have the shots as we can at least read the article I'm caught! How do I sell my house now?.
Buy house. Good location. Newly renovated. Urge. Price to negotiate. This is one of the ads you can read every day everywhere: newspapers, websites specialized in real estate market, posters hung on the terraces of houses, lampposts, bus stops .... This diversity of media to hang a poster for sale reflects the desperate situation that some citizens live.
Many are caught in the crisis in the sector of the brick that hardens with the delicate financial situation. They need to sell your current home, to get the money and able to fulfill the contract for purchase of another house (new, bigger and better services), who soon will deliver real estate. The clock has begun to flow, but the buyer still unaccounted for.
Without doubt, all a problem for those away from their intention to speculate, find themselves caught in a market completely stopped.
This week we will see that it has ported the economy this month because we have to know the GDP of Spain, Germany and the USA. We cross our fingers.
Written by Carlos Lopez on August 25, 2008 with 174 comments
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Much is written in the area of comments on the need to save in times of crisis, so we do the following question: What if ahorrásemos all at once?. Given this scenario anything outlandish, an economic situation we would call "the paradox of savings."
An increase in savings, under certain conditions, can reduce national income, come on, make us poorer. The explanation of the paradox is simple: when we save more, consume less often. In broad national income is determined by the demand side, hence less consumption means less spending and this leads to a lower level of income.
In this environment, the only solution is for governments to "dis" what their citizens either by saving investments such as public works or by other methods such as making people save less through tax increases (in some way, forcing to spend)
However, this paradoxical situation tends to have this effect in the short term and that long-term savings often become productive investment in certain sectors that add value to the economy and promote the development of the country.
Therefore. Save it, if it is to invest in a productive sector.
From time to save not know if we will do, but consume less, secure. 15 days ago and saw that the car sales fell 27% in July and accumulates at least 200,000 the year, also saw yesterday that the number of foreign tourists dropped by 8% in July, and to end a story but with a good business nothing flattering background Burger King around the crisis and win a 28% increase in the exercise by the increase in customers.
And if this were not enough, now we go back to the days of the Cold War tensions between the U.S. and Russia to make the oil rises more than 6%.
The market is concerned about the tension that has been generated following the agreement reached between the United States and Poland in order to install a system on Polish territory and a defensive missile shield, which can affect the cut of oil supply in the platforms in the Caspian Sea controlled by Russia (the second largest supplier of oil in the world).
Good weekend for everyone, for your server is the last day of vacation.
Written by Carlos Lopez on August 22, 2008 with 172 comments
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