June 2008

You're watching the articles of Euribor for the month of June 2008.

The mortgage malignant

Miniyo in his minipiso of trujillo "Whoever wants trillion, when you have billions," that had to think a few years ago the more than 300 defendants in the operation "Malignant Mortgage" in its attempt to dominate the financial world.

As if it were a movie Austin Powers have the Justice Department, in coordination with the FBI to submit charges to the main culprits of the crisis we are experiencing now. In The Country we have very good, so I switch to the usual cortapega .

The action against the perpetrators of the subprime crisis was launched three months ago and a half at the federal level. It has involved a dozen agencies, from the secret service to the tax authorities, via the postal inspection or immigration services and customs. The aim of this action, as indicated judicial sources in Washington, is "to combat fraud and criminal conduct" in the housing market and credit.

I love this phrase "Fighting fraud and criminal conduct" undoubtedly the officer who led the investigation was called Sonny Crockett. Let's see which may have been the genesis of mortgages garbage.

The operation Mortgage Malignant has identified three main types of abuse: in the loan fraud, scams on the rescue arrest and suspension of fraudulent payments linked to the mortgage. In the fraud in the mortgage loan was granted misrepresented the financial status of the mortgaged, exaggerating their income or assets, using data on employment, false or overstated the value of the property. In these practices is the origin of the foreclosure crisis, such as late payments on mortgages has been gigantic.

I suppose that the operation has done nothing more than to start and will undoubtedly serve as a lesson for those white-collar criminals.

Today is Friday, plays the comment of the week (you know, the most voted for you) which reads as follows:

# 32, SOG

June 18, 2008, at 10:21.

I remember the sr-ÁSNAR saying that "Spain is doing well!" While speculation mounted this cycle that has now been exhausted.
-I remember Mr banker (2 years) that when we did simulations of the mortgage told me that if the Euribor was put at 5% is sinking the country ...
I remember the sr-ZP saying in February that the Euribor had "plateaued" and now empazaría down ...
-I remember vaguely to the IMF and ECB hints of giving attention to Egypt, but here only what we cared about was to grow by 4% annually.
-I remember some interest between 2% and 3% during which the Spaniards (companies and individuals) could double its bank debt in 3 years.
-I remember my friends refinancing your old mortgage to buy "Carraz" € 50,000.
- I remember when I did not know that balance was in my mind because they always had money (now you can say with accuracy of the centana € I left to come to the end of the month)
Also, remember when people bought an apartment and a year and half what he earned and sold 10kilos (now assuming that you have to ask to sell a prést.personal to liquidate the mortgage)
- I remember a day 20 was not necessary to ask the bank that you increase the credibility of the VISA.
- I remember the diesel 0,85 € ...

Now the memories alive, and that I have left after paying the mortgage and anything else I can not live ...

WHAT HAVE WE DESERVE:
impresentables politicians, households with more debt than BMW's value and changing the oil in stores Aurgi
In summary:
we are a Third World society Survival in a false and inflated state elitist.

Reading the news and commentary with which I started the article, added a nuance: We have what we deserve and that some mangantes have wanted. Frankly I think a lot of blame for what happens now is for us, but not more cases as "malign the mortgage and other thefts, for at least fail to punish us and to be able to shift the blame to others.

Good weekend to all.

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 20, 2008 with 215 comments
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There are defaulting on the coast

Chalet a 5 minutos del centro The land that Spain was conquered by Muslims has left us many legacies, from some very important and beautiful as the Alhambra in Granada, and some less tangible expressions and sayings such as, being one of the best known of the "No on the Moors coast. "

The story recounts that, for several centuries, the Spanish Levante was subjected to frequent invasions by the Berber pirates (inhabitants of the northwestern region of Africa, between the Mediterranean and the Sahara).

The people living on the banks, as a result, were in constant anxiety and to prevent the danger, were erected along the coast many watchtowers masonry blind, who were stood by rope ladders that then they were withdrawn. From the top of these towers are monitored across the horizon and, as soon as they sight the sails of ships Berber, the sentry on duty began to shout: "There are Moors on the coast." Then the bell sounded, was lit bonfires of the signal and alerted the people-are-prepared for the defense. The system lasted until many years later, when it signed peace with the kings of Barbary, but the proverbial cry of Moors are on the coast! became a familiar phrase used to warn about the presence of someone who represents a certain danger, or should not I hear something of what we are saying. On the other hand, used the term antonym no Moors on the coast, to indicate that there is no imminent danger to a person who must perform a certain task.

Unfortunately, we can not say now that "there is no Moors on the coast" because legally the term "blackberry" refers to breach a duty therefore to have debts that are delinquent call. But the debtor in arrears of whether, from a formal point of view, not a definitive breach of the obligation to pay, but merely a belated fulfillment of the obligation. Therefore, when we hear news like this which tells us that the rate of delinquencies rebound in April to 1302%, the highest level in more than eight years, we must understand what the term delinquent. However, we are talking about a very high figure for a country like Spain. Attentive to the growth in the last year:

This figure represents an increase of 0176 points over the rate recorded the previous month, when it stood at 1126%, and contrasts with the level of April last year, when the indicator was in 0693%. Moreover, this upswing is the largest increase experienced by the rate of delinquencies in five years, since in April 2003 rose 0.98 points.

If a 1% that is a historically high figure, bad scenario sees the president of La Caixa, Isidro Fainé, has said that late payment of the financial sector in Spain "has to climb" and could move into the environment from 2 percent at the end this year and did not rule out that next year will fall about 3 percent.

Without doubt, this rate rise still further if it meets the pronísticos Caixa Catalunya which states that the Euribor in one year could climb to 6%.

The director general of Caixa Catalunya, Adolf Todó, said today that the Euribor, with the main indicator that some of these mortgages, will continue to rise and predicted that "in a year could rise to 6%."

True, the news looking for the owner and a statement like "In a year could" lead to my mind, too much uncertainty. Surely if he had said "In one year the Euribor could be in the 5%" would not have been news if you fijáis, there are practically the same difference from the current value to 5% and 6%. If not, just remember this headline: The economic observatory anticipates that the Euribor is located at 6% in 2018.

To end, the news of the day oil: The oil and climbs more than the Nasdaq before the outbreak of punto.com

The final bubble recognized in the financial markets was the technology. That time, the benchmark index, the Nasdaq Composite U.S., rose by just over two years, 257%-October 1998 until its historic high of 5048.62 points in March 2000 - from which time the price of barrel West Texas (the reference in the U.S.) has grown by 444%.

Will it be another bubble? How many more we have left?

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 19, 2008 with 254 comments
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The ninjas and the Indians

Have you ever thought about how you did the Indians wake up before dawn to be able to attack by surprise?. Had no clocks or genetically modified roosters for singing at 4 in the morning. One option is not sleeping or rely on someone who is in sailing, but as the Indians were not relied neither of its shade invented an alarm clock naturally. The solution found for cases like this was to take large quantities of water before going to bed. Thus, the desire to urinate woke up long before they did the sunlight, and could attack relatively well rested. It is odd, because usually when you wake up that way is usually far less unpleasant than when you do your mobile phone, radio or any of the twentieth century invention designed to end so perverse.

Since always thought that the Indians were the only ones who still slept in tents, but after reading this news I see that those who do are the Ninjas. And I am not talking about the brave Japanese warriors who were receiving training worthy of the Spartans and were able to stay nearly invisible in the dark. I refer to the "No Income No Assets" (no income and no assets) that those who are his only gift was to remain invisible to the departments of risks of banks.

The crisis "supbirme" continues to rage in the U.S.. If a few months ago houses were sold at $ 100 and even gave Now hundreds of citizens in this country are now grouped in small cities of tents. In some areas of California have begun to flourish what they call "tent cities", concentrations of tents where hundreds of people survive without shelter. Many of them believe that it is the only solution to the embargo that remains of her house after the outbreak "subprime".

You can even watch a film made by the BBC here. The truth is that it gives quite as bad roll is very far from the villages hippies we could imagine in California.

Others who are going to change his home, specifically to go to jail, are accused of research in Estepona. Vigilant because the list of crimes he is charged can compete perfectly with the thickness of Ikea.

The operation began when the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office has issued arrest warrants against suspects in operation "Astapa '. For the alleged crimes involved were charged of influence peddling, prevarication, money laundering and bribery in connection with an alleged corruption case linked to irregular funding of the consistory. Researchers have enjoyed the cooperation of two pesonas familiar with much of the criminal disjointed structure.

Meanwhile, we continue to make citizens deserve the same question Are we in crisis or slowdown?. A blog Expansion us put to a test, which he hit the first questions.

Basically the question is: do more looking at the peeling?.

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 18, 2008 with 232 comments
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The exception that proves the rule.

It is curious that of times we say that this phrase has neither feet nor head. Are you always the exception the rule? Is there an exception to the exception that proves the rule?. So as they say provided the refranero is very clever (basically because there's always a saying the same thing to another and to the contrary) should have some basis similar assertion. The basis on which it is based is a bad translation because it is in its original exceptio Probat REGULAM, that well-translated means "The exception tests the rule", ie that the breaks. I mean, to translate something wrong, we say just the opposite.

So having said that you speak of a rule or law or rather, that of supply and demand on which, this time, IF there is one exception that confirms it. We speak of oil. It's the only explanation is that oil mark yesterday its highest price in history just the day that Saudi Arabia announced it would increase its production.

This exception to the rule is doing a lot of pupa to the sale of automobiles, which rose head and above all the luxury and large displacement.

Luxury cars idling walk. The registration of cars of more than 60,000 euro has fallen 18.7% in the first five months of the year, according to data from the consulting firm MSI developed for the management of dealers, Faconauto. The fall has been even more sharply if one considers that sales of luxury vehicles had increased by 19.9% in Spain during the last year to 14,719 cars. According to data from the employers of manufacturers, ANFACO, the drop in luxury cars reaches 45.29%. Both organizations use different criteria to make estimates.

What also shocked me this news is that we are talking about a piece of information that a priori seem easy to obtain: Sales of cars, but here we find two figures, those of the bosses in the manufacturer and the employers of dealers and neither the number of cars sold are agreed. One said that a 19.9% drop and the other 45.29%. As to rely on other more complicated to calculate ....

On this news, we can also see how a change in taxation can damage a sector.

The main cause is the new tax system introduced by the Government, which leaves exempt from the registration tax for cars that emit less than 120 grams and gravel for the most polluting. This decrease in demand, explain sources Faconauto, has so far been untouched by the economic environment, with a more abrupt adjustment real estate than expected, figures for unemployment and a rise in inflation exceeds that of our European neighbors. In addition, he joins the lowest consumer confidence in the economic outlook, high fuel prices and the tightening of credit conditions, albeit to a lesser amount than in the general market, many operations are financed by tax-motivated.

Often outlook for the sector. High oil, tax changes, creditícea crisis and falling confidence.

Yesterday, Deutsche Bank did not give on Monday with a report that told us that the crisis in Spain is going for long, specifically provided for a year's liquidity crisis, two or three years of crisis and real estate, the most serious of all, five of economic crisis.

Despite all the summer arrives and in Spain we are fortunate to 12 (come on, with great fortune), who have already booked their holidays next year, into space.

Twelve Spaniards have already formalized their reservation to travel into space next year by the hand of Virgin Galactic, which for $ 200,000 (about 140,000 euros) has the potential to make a suborbital flight and enjoy unforgettable four minutes of weightlessness 110 miles of Earth.

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 17, 2008 with 323 reviews
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Chaos

In recent days, both the Fed and the ECB has shown its concern over the high inflation to which we are subjected, and which undermines our competitiveness year after year. To do so by the ECB, is part of its general tone, tight control of inflation rates to maintain and even threatening to raise, but the EDF, which lowered rates repeatedly in recent months, seems to rule out entirely new descents (and are at 2 %) And gives the warning track that rises could occur in the medium term if inflation continues to penalize its economy.

"Bernanke's words could be interpreted as a sign of the new Central Bank that the U.S. rate cuts have been finished by the time the other side of the Atlantic. However, the chairman of the Fed warned about the risks to inflation generated by the weak dollar. "

What does this mean?

The dollar could start to recover in the currency market, and this will mean price hikes added to the price of crude. The barrel would be more expensive, and in turn each day would pay more for the same $ €. As we look back some time in this forum, noting the figure of € / $ and the oil price, you could see clearly that the devaluation of the $ was not the only reason for the cost of such a coveted black gold.

As a teacher I had said, "In every problem you can find an opportunity." The recovery of $, compared to the € we can "take advantage" by buying dollars. In almost all banks are in dollar deposits can be no more problems, and the recovery of the dollar is an almost incontestable fact, the question is when, but if you do not need to invest in the short or medium term, can be converted into a investment with a moderate risk and a very acceptable profitability due to the great leap that separates today's $ €.

Moreover, in Spain seems to back a little normalcy to partially end the strike by transporters of last week (despite the fact that today they wanted to collapse Madrid) following the signing of a series of measures between the government and unions (employers ) Majority of transportation, but just today, Monday at 00:00 started a strike in France for the same reason, the high price of fuel. Now prove that the caravans of trucks, will change from the side of the border, but will continue to damage the progress of the economy in the already complicated economic environment.

"Experts warn that the impact of the stoppage of carriers, which is combined with further increases in the Euribor and oil, can stop the growth in neutral ... ... the progress of the economy was already slow in the first quarter, with the smallest increase in GDP ... in 13 years, although the rate still resists interannual at 2.7%. "

In conclusion, a press release calling attention because we can really see that the crisis is affecting a lot more to Spain than to Europe, since according to Financial Times, The Spanish economy will move from being one of the most powerful in Europe to one of those of weaker growth. Faced with this overwhelming reality, I can only refer to a phrase that I read the other day in this blog, expressed by a contertulio usual, "The greater the chaos, the closer is the solution."

More news of interest:

Written by Oriolrc the June 16, 2008 with 182 comments
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Curriculum hipotecae

A time to make a decision as important as the change of working there are two factors on which we have to esmerarnos far the curriculum vitae and interview. Especially in the latter committed faults quite peculiar, like we can read here.

At the time of requesting a mortgage to the bank, we are facing a similar problem, we need a good "Curriculum hipotecae" beautiful photo, guarantors and a pristine past in terms of debts and an excellent job interview with the director of the branch. Because like in the workplace, are no longer so blithely contract and the selection process is increasingly hard.

Far are the days when a temporary contract in your curriculum hipotecae served to you and to contact you is that as in the work of selecting the companies contracting with the banks too easily. A bull past is easy to see but what should not have had the banks more careful when signing a contract that will last more than 25 years?. Fortunately, in Spain the number of "bad contracts" reaches only 1% which is the figure which is the mmorosidad. However, is rising much.

This figure is 0.53 points higher than the rate recorded a year ago, when it stood at 0.46% and is 0.27 points above the level achieved at the close of 2007, at which time it reached the 0 , 77%.

To conclude, as thanks to God is Friday, he plays to highlight the comment of the week, you know anyone who has received more votes you.

# 1, Mano H20

June 9, 2008, at 9:37.

Good morning, everyone, with the hope that is not a simple formula of courtesy.

I think that most affect us what happened on Friday. The nearly 800 comments in this forum, between Friday and the weekend, are a good proof of that. I think it's the first time that Carlos Lopez has to open a second article to accommodate both commentary.

After apparently believe that the most sensible at the moment is desirable for us to stay with the indexes for Friday. And I explain:

This week beginning can be dark inside and outside our borders.

We will find out, probably with a higher rise in oil prices and, unfortunately, with an even greater surge of Euribor. I think at this point no one doubts that we are in the hands of an unprecedented speculative flows. There are no real reasons to justify the increase in the price of a barrel. Suddenly you have not exhausted the deposits, nor is there an enormously increased demand from countries such as China and India. Only this is a huge speculative operation from the U.S. economy that tries, at the expense of whoever, to revive its ailing economy.

Sumad this the refuge of billions of euros in futures markets Americans (A significant portion of this money comes from the Spanish housing market, fleeing the internal situation of the brick, because they do not believe that the plaster of the brick has disappeared suddenly ).

The Americans are in a situation of stagflation, and obviously are not going to be viewing them still come. Are acting.

And the Euribor, ultimately, just as we think indicates that he will be the situation in a year (bad, very bad).

Within Spain we have a situation of the most picturesque (if not dramatic).

Economic crisis with all the letters "CRISIS." The best test, for which we have known any previous crisis, is on the constant rise of bids from banks for term deposits. When banks are looking for this situation, and we are getting is that the crisis is fat. Attract much lend money and very little to very high rates. That is the reality.

The bag can be puñetas going to do because there is no money to buy at low prices, because money has taken refuge in bank deposits and hence, of course, is tied to different time frames, three, six, twelve months, and so on. so it will not enter into the bag or wanting.

The strike that begins today transport may aggravate the situation much of our economy, despite the government indicates that it is preparing a "robust" measures (hope that does not mean powerful explosive).

I understand that carriers. I know about his situation. But as so often, defending their legitimate demands, we are going to cause a problem at all, especially to final consumers. The bottom line is a loss for the Spanish economy.

It grieves me that the comments some of you do in this forum hoping that everything go up, the Euribor, unemployment, etc.. Making calls for general strikes and others.

I think those who say things like, or is it an illusion or is a very young person who launches these slogans from the computer in his bedroom in his parents' house.

I think anyone with two fingers of forehead, and most who have family in their care, understand that these appeals are absurd. Who benefits from a high unemployment, economic recession? Who seeks his first job, you lose your job?

What do you want? A scorched-earth policy? ¿Blood, dead? And then comes that someone from outside to help.

Remember the recent history of Yugoslavia. When acted Europe?

Thousands of dead later, with a country broken in many areas and only when the action was to make pasta to rebuild the fragments and win a lot more pasta with it.

Do you think that we will import just over to Europe? That wrong. Do not paint anything in the European context. Germany, France .... They set the standard to follow. The Spanish situation because it brings the brick to cool. In fact it will be an investment opportunity for them to medium term.

And besides, this is no longer a problem of rented or mortgaged. This situation hurts us all equally. ¿Paro high? Who fired no question if you are rented or mortgaged.

In such a situation, as owners who need it may not sell or bargain price. Among other things a bank does not sell stops below the mortgage liability or tired of taps.

You're hired and you stay unemployed. To see how rent another apartment, where prices are going to be put through the roof.

Anyway. Lo said at the outset. Hopefully us to stay in the indices on Friday in everything.

We have a week that unfortunately I think it is going to be black.

If you want a good summary:

http://www.cotizalia.com/cache/2008/06/09/59_economia_estalla_zapatero.html

I hope to be here on Friday and be able to say that I was wrong in everything said in this commentary.

In the meantime. Paséis good that week. That we spend a good week.

4 days have passed since this comment. Was the week as black as we thought?.

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 13, 2008 with 361 reviews
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