June 2008

You're watching the articles of Euribor for the month of June 2008.

Champions

After subidón of partidazo yesterday, we all got up today in a good mood and some with a hangover and sleep. No doubt we are all more optimistic, something that frankly we needed after the month so hard, as regards the economy, which today have just.

As a curiosity, French consumer confidence reached a record high after the French victory at the end of 1998 and according to their study, the victory of Italy in the world of 2006 could have added between 0.10 and 0.15 points to growth Italian GDP in that year due to increased confidence will be moved to higher consumption and investment.

The growth of the economy of the world champion over the runner-up, with an additional growth of 0.7% over the previous year and pockets of the country champions have done better than the rest of the year triumph: the positive difference for half the winner has been 10%.

On the other hand, runners-up (which left in its psychology as losers) tend to have a negative behavior,

The reliability of these studies have to fuck with tweezers, as this is very optimistic although passengers should not underestimate the power of consumer confidence.

PS: Throughout the day I'll update the article with news of the day yesterday as they returned from vacation and I have done all the tasks.

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 30, 2008 with 179 comments
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Go semestrito.

Now that was just the month of June playing look back and make a summary of what has happened in these first 6 months. Fortunately in Invertia did the other day, so I save my work and I will save your reading with the following summary, that to be honest, one would want to mourn.

Development of profitability in the first half 2008.

The Ibex 35 has recorded one of its worst semesters so far this decade. We have to go back to 2002 when, in the first half of this year fell 17% to find a similar figure. In the past five years, the Spanish selective has been repuntes ranging from 13% in the first half of 2003 to 5%, which was scored in the first six months of last year.

Within the Ibex 35, the blue chips have also not been able to offer gains to investors. With the exception of Repsol-YPF that has benefited from the rise of crude oil (the price of Brent has climbed 47% through June from the 92 euros at which quoted in December 2007), none of the major has achieved positive sign . The Spanish oil giant has seen its shares have appreciated by 10%.

U.S. suffers unless Europe despite being the trigger

The international equities has not offered many opportunities for investors as only the EuroStoxx 50 has yielded 17.5% in the first six months. This figure reaches 20% if calculated interannual. The London FTSE has fallen more than 10% and the Paris CAC, 17% and the DAX also dropped 17% since January.

Across the Atlantic has not gone much better, and the Dow Jones suffer a decline of 8.5%, much less than what European stock markets shows that the focus of the problem in the subprime market have had greater waist. The S & P 500 has also yielded a 8.75%, while the Nasdaq technology has been the most penalized to the left at 9.5%.

The funds are unable to overcome the crisis

The funds have also not had a good response to the crisis. Among all the funds marketed in Spain, none of the funds that invest in equities Spanish get the positive sign. Nor those who able to choose only by the actions of the euro zone.

The fixed-income funds were the only ones, along with the money, they have achieved a positive return in the top 0.89% since January. Did the best that money gained 1.19% of profitability. The equity has fallen to 8.96 on May. The equity has given mixed 5.42% and fixed income mixed, so has a 1.64%.

Deposits, Internet accounts and letters, the only hope

The problem of inflation appears to be the biggest concern of investors. The swift action taken by central banks to feed liquidity of the markets after the drowning sparked by the subprime problem have led to the setting in inflation, which in May has become the figure of 4.6% year. Moreover, the surge of crude nearly 50% has not helped control it. For this reason, it is hard to find products that have succeeded in overcoming the mark of the CPI.

The current accounts of entities which trade over the Internet appear to have been a good option. The average profitability of these products was 4.5%, which allows the investor to try to counter inflation. Some deposits of more than one year are the only ones who manage to overcome the CPI. For example, the account blue Banesto offers a return of 5.5% APR on a monthly or deposit of Caja Madrid to 15 months is 5%.

Nor is housing and shelter investor

The price of second-hand housing has fallen 3.65% in the first five months of the year, to stand at the 2376 euros per square meter, according to a study by the portal Facilisimo.com. Only in May, the price of buildings used has dropped 1.04%, while in the last twelve months the value of the home yielded 5.64%.

One will have to wait for official statistics on housing and that is the National Statistics Institute (INE) will begin to publish the Index of Prices for Housing (IPV) on the evolution of house prices new and used during the months of July or August, according to sources in the body chaired by James Garcia.

Go anita we carry. If you have a mortgage, bad for the rise in the Euribor and if you have pasta, too bad because the returns (if any) are ridiculous. If the fund, money that does not give more problems, whether you like it if you must.

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 27, 2008 with 316 reviews
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It's the economy, stupid

When we think of Bush the father did not usually have a very good picture of it, mainly because of its destructive reproductive capacity, but shortly before the 1992 election, Bush was considered unbeatable by most political analysts, mainly because of its successes in politics outside, as the end of the Cold War and the Persian Gulf War, then his popularity had reached 90% acceptance, a historical record.

In these circumstances, James Carville, strategist for the campaign of Bill Clinton, noted that it should focus more on issues related to the daily lives of citizens and their most immediate needs. And in order to keep the campaign focused on a message, Carville stuck a poster in the central office with three letters:

  1. Change vs. more of the same
  2. The economy, stupid
  3. Do not forget the health system

Although the cartel was only a reminder of, "It's the economy, stupid" became a kind of unofficial slogan of the campaign of Clinton, who was critical to alter the balance of power and defeat Bush, something unthinkable earlier.

In the 1992 elections in the United States, compared with tax cuts and spending proposals by Bush, Clinton spoke of a new fiscal policy to punish the highest incomes and an improvement in those aspects of society that, his opinion, made a big country (education, health, ...)

In Spain it seems that in the campaign, the economy was not a defining issue in the U.S. but it may be. Undoubtedly, we will have to be very attentive to the McCain-Obama fight because as we have seen, its crises affect us more than what is desirable. Will the economy which force the change?

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 26, 2008 with 254 comments
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25 ways to say crisis

The other day I read in the ABC this curious article that tells us the 25 ways to call the current economic situation.

1 .- intense Desaceleración
2 .- abrupt Desaceleración
3 .- cyclical slowdown
4 .- Economic Contraction
5 .- Period of adjustment
6 .- Difficulties objective
7 .- Reducing our growth
8 .- Coyuntura difficult
9 .- worsening of the economic cycle
10 .- imported Problem
11 .- Preparation phase of the economy to recovery
12 .- phase of economic slowdown in the global context
13 .- Loss of ability to create jobs
14 .- The country suffers an external shock
15 .- The sign of the economy is different in this first part of the legislature
16 .- There is turbulence in the global economy
17 .- Accumulation of imbalances
18 .- It is not a long horizon, but transient
19 .- It is a challenge to strengthen our capacity for growth
20 .- We are in a new environment
21 .- Change of growth pattern
22 .- still in a phase of continued economic growth
23 .- This is a new economic
24 .- We have a severe restriction on the liquidity
25 .- In this new scenario for the economy

As you can see are working hard not to say the word CRISIS. Do you suppose that is a good technique to want to inspire confidence with the message "reassuring"? Does it make sense this technique in the Internet age?

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 25, 2008 with 247 comments
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Robots in poker

Robot in Slavic meaning "Slave" and how slavery was invented mainly for you to do the dirty work, it is normal that in the era of Internet and technology exist Robots. In fact, and since I'm traveling, the article published today as an automatic "robot" but unfortunately I have to write it myself.

The robots are far from us as those described in the'50s, do not prepare food or you clean the house, but are devoted to more profitable things to do data analysis and decision making. A clear example is the Poker-playing robots on the Internet.

A poker bot is a computer program that runs almost or completely alone, and can be found on a table in a virtual classroom online poker playing cards as any of the human players. The difference is that in most cases, the robot will be capable of making decisions so snapshot to review all the odds and calculations are not necessarily available to human players. In some cases, the robots can in a figurative way to "see" the letters of others, and more than one robot can be at a table working in complicity. You can then see how the idea of a robot's poker is a concept that frightens those players who seek a just a table in online poker.

Financial markets are very similar to a game of poker. Well, maybe a game of poker is more transparent, with well-defined rules and a certain respect among the players. Let's look at some of the characteristics of the automatic trading systems:

After reading this Do you suppose that an investor could win these sophisticated investment? Do not you have turned the markets into a playing field too professionalized?. Sometimes I get the feeling that the stock market is like a neighborhood pool. When someone new, professional players combine to make the quarters at the rookie. In the background, although bearing conrbata, the brokers do not cease to be a cool pool that have changed shirts without sleeves by an Armani suit.

Written by Carlos Lopez on June 24, 2008 with 220 comments
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