The hat of Indiana Jones

Good morning, everyone s!

To start the day ... I'm going to put a view Marc Vidal.

In my view, is quite right.

I know it's a brick ...

"ME branded as ominous
The combined turnover of Realia, Metrovacesa, Vallehermoso, Acciona Real Estate, Martins-Fadesa, Urbis and REYAL Parquesol decreased by 32.9% between January and March. These are data that seem ill but a marvel in the near future. In this decline does not have any impact pre quarter, as the turnover of the companies only accounted for the supply of flats and scripts closed in the period and, therefore, sold earlier. That is, this decline is the result of the impact of the slowdown in 2007 but has nothing to do with the hostión that are occurring in the economy this 2008. In 2009, or earlier in the presentation of the results of the third or fourth quarter, the numbers will by fear since those days, these entities will have little of what we discard. Let us bear in mind that some accounts of exploitation are saving for the sale of assets or the management of soil which then can not use.

Not all companies in the sector may enter a single sack. Some are betting on investing in other businesses and diversify the corporate pressure, promote in other emerging countries and a few others opt for entering into a dynamic business in the territory of new technologies. I think it's important to know that, the companies' brick & mortgage "who bet on social networks, global transparency and socialization of its products pave the scene immediately from a more clever than its competitors. Will be seen, but the storm will be for everyone. Some will be saved with many casualties in its ranks and others simply disappear or be living the worst humiliations.

I do not think seriously say, with respect to the inter-measurement tool, which declines, both as a pre-billing, "derived from comparing the first three months of this year with the first quarter of 2007, as it was still far to the outbreak of the crisis of subprime mortgages in the United States, triggered the current situation. " I believe a lack of rigor not respond to a fall "official" of growth as a clear factor in the crisis. 0.4% of the Bank of Spain we have gone to 0.3% according to the Institute of Statistics. Is an advance, that is, even by analyzing the detail is still missing and to incorporate the recesses of productivity is not provided by taxes. It may be that "officially" growth between January and March even more miserable. I still think we're growing in the negative.

However, if you do not grow in negative bit we lack. The popular recession is just around the corner. Because we know: if one takes into account the growth in the first quarter of 2007, it stood at 1%, the second fell to 0.9%, the third sank 0.7% and in the last quarter of 2007, The Spanish economy grew by 0.8%. That is, that as the year progressed quarterly growth zigzag but always below the first quarter. As the subprime had little or nothing to do, since before the explosion of August, the last stretch of the year was still nearly as productive as the second, long before the U.S. crisis. So, if we consider that this 0.3% "official advance" is the best quarterly results that we expected, what can we expect growth for the remainder of the year? A second quarter around the 0.1% official and a second half 2008 could turn negative in a rat hole and 2009 in a cemetery littered with corporate social conflicts motivated by a scarcity of jobs and opportunities.

In this context, and we think it is a tomadura hair that Zapatero will continue to pick up and not speaking of structure, emphasizing that we are in terms cojonudamente and apart from analysts, including those of his own party, who speak of a crisis in capital letters. In a crisis like this is not reached by divine annunciation, or in five minutes, but a growing increasingly optimistic, it leads little by little. It should be made to minimize the train crash by an interest incomprehensible. Even Solbes admits that things are worse than expected. It seems an insult to the intelligence that now the vice president of economic talk that Disneyland has closed for lack of illusion.

I struck out with catastrophist, unpatriotic, ominous, apocalyptic and more beautiful things, but if you look at what I said in 2005 or 2006 seem optimistic compared with the current situation and future. They should stop the euphemisms. We must speak clearly to people. I fear that in an exercise of expression Keynesian or patriotic frenzy, the executive decides to press the button to take a prosecutor and then wind around for decades. I get scared.

But the speech is still the nothing happens between now and what will be temporarily short. Neither slowing nor transitional bagpipes, the big crisis and with all your clothes. The destruction of jobs is the first division and lack of economic credibility of government is similar to that enjoyed by children of Pajares to take charge of his father. And the worst is to come. The crisis, as such, has not yet begun. We are on the periphery of the conflict. Now we know that you can no longer avoid, as much to soften the impact. To cushion the blow, the Government should begin to establish real and concrete measures, left for what we all know and turn to achieve the confidence of economic agents and consumers, and unlikely to be achieved with the side wall of precast that make plays when they talk about the crisis and address it as men (and women) who they are. "

I like mortgaged admit that I crashed but I remain confident that things will improve.

# 2, Euribor up up!

Go billet colleague ...

From here I want to give my congratulations to Mr. Trichet, for his bravery and professionalism.

http://www.lavanguardia.es/lv24h/20080521/53465853912.html

For those who give birth to put, say that the U.S. Federal Reserve, FED, acknowledges that the flight did not go back and that will grow much less than the expected. And I say, but like many post-cuts in the price of money they have made? But if that is the magic solution to all mortgaged Spaniards want. If that fixes everything, right?

Because it will not be, and now what? Well now apechugar because they no longer have room to maneuver, they are so low that little more can be downloaded. We must congratulate ourselves that Mr. Trichet stand as a champion all the external pressures it has had. Has demonstrated its independence, knowledge of the situation, and have faith in its policy of the pit is getting to Europe, not to Spain but is that we have no choice.

Seen the success, from here we ask a little more value and to pull a little more interest rates. Has shown that the most important thing is to contain inflation as it may, albeit at the expense of some growth that eventually recovers, particularly in countries seriously.

Good morning, everyone s:

I've been reading this forum several months that I discovered seeking information on mortgages and Euribor already purchased a house a couple of years ago. I would like to thank the contributors and CLopez kind and respectful of the other informative and educational work they are doing.

It also has long been watching the growing wave of insults and disqualifications of people as "Attila, Euribor up up!, Fyahball, and so on." That they insist on being held to wish the whole truth and the Euribor to 5% by sheer pleasure the pain "a lot of pain."

They are not right in rid of their arguments:
- Ending speculation, lower prices abusive homes, normalize the situation in the construction sector, and so on.

But they lose all meaning to their disqualifications (and I would like to see them in a forum of IT or medicine between them when a virus on your computer or from contracting a disease from which they wish to know more) and are found with "professional" or "knowledgeable "Domain that they laugh at" Illiterate "like them.

For that reason, and because reasoning does not get away with their insults, I have decided to explain my theory on why I gained and not rented and paying them with its own currency (which is how it hurts them the most disrespectful). Goes with all due respect to people who decide to rent for the needs he may have at any given moment:

Assuming a theoretical and unrealistic scenario in which the Euribor is stable, the CPI increased by 3% and wages and rents the same thing:

Year 0: theoretical € 600 rental fee, fee for mortgage theoretical € 1200, net income household theoretical 3000 €  Percentage rent for the 20% rate for the purchase 40%

Year 10: theoretical rental fee € 806, € Fee mortgage theoretical 1200, net income household theoretical 4301 €  Percentage rent for the 19% rate for the purchase 27%

Year 20: Share theoretical rental € 1083, mortgage fee theoretical 1.200 €, net income household theoretical 5780 €  Percentage rent for the 18% rate for the purchase 20%

Year 25: € 1255 notional rental fee, fee mortgage theoretical 1.200 €, net income household theoretical 6700 €  Percentage rent for the 18% rate for the purchase 17%

...

At the end of the mortgage loan: Property acquired.
At the end of Rent: None

IPC, burn them all! It will be a degüello and without prisoners, for alquiletas, tiraduros and not proactive in giving a mortgage and rent over the years ...

Despidamonos zone's 4% and 5% hold over a long season ... More or less until we see that 5% is not so bad because it was dangerously about 6%. Hopefully I was wrong

Marc Vidal's blog is good but not for a copy paste this is your page if you want to read it
http://www.marcvidal.cat/espanol/

# 6, CVR

Year 30: € 1255 notional rental fee, fee mortgage theoretical 0 € (paid at last!), Net income household theoretical 6700 €  Percentage rent for the 18% rate for the acquisition 0%

... What we think is going to happen to like Japan? (and looks that are far away ...)

Remember the crisis in Japan in the 90s. The outbreak of the financial bubble had the following consequences:

In the economic sphere:

1. Sharp fall in share prices in the stock market.
2. Sharp fall in the price of land.
3. Decline in demand for real estate, automobiles and luxury goods
4. Bankruptcies of banks for loans irrecoverable.
5.16.624 corporate bankruptcies at the close of 2003.
6. Low wages at the low profits of enterprises
7. Large decline in investment and personal consumption.
8. In relative terms the public debt of government was the largest in the world, accounting for 150% of GDP
9. Large decline in investment and personal consumption.
10. Industrial stagnation
11. Decrease in capital investment

In the social sphere:

12. Suicide and crime grew alarmingly.
13. Incidents of violence in schools among students and between students and teachers
14. Crisis in the education system
15. Family breakdown.
16. Rising unemployment reaching its historic record of 5.5% for three consecutive months in 2003.
17. Increased corruption in many areas
18. Increasing job insecurity (unemployment and low wages).

Are we in Spain this route?

# 2, Euribor up up!!

It looks to me a very respectable opinion, but we'll see what happens really. In crises often occur opportunities. In fact, in my opinion, there are banks q with the roll of "mistrust" is being made of gold DQ have discovered the vein of saying "they are afraid to deliver." Q companies will probably discover its seams of gold and probably the topic is not so catastrophic.

By the way. Carlos. I've done the old coup. Q Indiana did not remember having nearly 30 years . Joooooooooeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerrrr !!!!! Q I'm old!

As oil .... has no name. I have read that there are investment funds that are q are investing in commodities and are the ones who are doing the oil, cereals and others. That is true?. Someone has to be able to read articles?

# 6. CVR

According to your post and especially with this:

"It goes with all due respect to people who decide to rent for the needs he may have at any given moment"

And on this view of another Forero think ... what?

I've been a while giving back to the lower floors and in the end, I think, that confusing what I'd like to (at least on time) with what is, underestimating the strength of the individual.

Let us note here that, if you've contracted a mortgage debt, though rid of you, if your sales / auction does not cover the debt, it stays on the person.

Let's do a breakdown of the current owners of buildings and needs to sell.

First group, those not purchased for speculation.

- Those who have already paid the floor for many years, the vast majority of these are not going to sell, no longer have this psychological feeling of being wealthy, but nothing more.

- Mortgages for over 5 years, can cope with the mortgage on their large majority.

Second group, who bought for speculation.

- Mortgages for less than 4 years, they will see their share of mortgage has increased and will continue to do so, it may not be enough to meet its payment obligations, how would act?.

- Drawing on aid from relatives, preferably parents, minimizing any costs (The Spain of not so many years ago).

- Sell losing money at the moment, not only when they see that the embargo was imminent.
The sight of someone in this situation is that purchased by 10,
although the next door sold for 5, there is no room for maneuver without
get off your 'level' housing, although that sold for 5, must =
5 others laugh, which will remain the same.
Forwards -> 6-12 months.

NOTE: These last have an element of speculation, because the debt was based on that in the worst -
the cases and sold it drew 20-30%.

- Spend piseros, these are perhaps the fastest fall to minimize losses.
Forwards -> Now.

- Mortgage bridge, the second fastest drop, but endurance, in some cases lost and raising the entry given.
Forwards -> now-4 months.

- Builders and developers, if we distinguish between large and small, depending on the ability to negotiate with banks and / or pressure the state, we have two behaviors.

- Major: As in this case is corporate debt, the behavior is different, but also will try to hold out until it becomes unbearable, try to negotiate with banks, state, etc ...
In the end, not wanting to rationalize, fall (down by the missing)
and they spend the floors of stock to someone in exchange for debt, to
banks or the state and they have to get rid of buildings with significant decreases, whether in sales or as packages to others.
Forwards -> 6-12 months.

- Small: These are already bankrupt, or stopping construction, so we have to because there are rebates for those who want to sell to cover costs or where it will buy the play € for 1 stop and give it to another for the finish, sells and try to recover some of the debt.
Forwards -> now-4 months.

So we have 2 groups bajadas are already doing really piseros Pasa, Small Constr / Prom and mortgage bridge, and a second group that will not give up within 6 months / 1 year, so we calculate how strong she is of October to May.

What do you think?

To # 15, Primer:
Make sure the coffee that you put a euro to be cut off brown and ask if it finds miss milk.
If you rent rises is due to ipc, if you decide to switch to a cheaper, safer to find what they will also lose in quality of life (area, square meters, length of the floor etc).

# 15 Primer

"If my apartment rented by clouds climbs ..."

You do not have in mind is that if that happened because the others are also likely to rise by clouds.

And if you're a disgrace as the case pointed to the top of your post you could not sell your flat as it could make a mortgaged rental and get it elsewhere, until the lean. You have to go directly to live under a bridge or rendered.

We are now catastrophic eh!. Do not worry, you'll humans have an incredible ability to adapt and if we can not live in an apartment for rent because we live two families to be able to afford it, and return to the field to retrieve those houses with roofs fallen, albeit squatter, which continue to be the same sources around and there are a lot of firewood to warm in the bush and planted potatoes and beans and lettuce and eat well, breathe better and above. Since the world is the world people have survived. RElAAAAJATEEE!

CVR # 6
Bravo CVR, if we make good arguments and demonstrate simple and schematically, the forum wins in the line of knowledge and best contributions to which are supposed to be created.
Greetings.
PS: The aftershocks to this reasoning, if they are argued and concise, would also be welcome. Not to insult or post which do not contribute to a more rich wisdom on the topics discussed in this forum.

# 6, CVR
What seems to invalidate your reasoning is "net income household theoretical":
- When you grow up, grow very slowly, almost always below the CPI
- When they do decreased significantly (unemployment and other causes regrettable)

I rented from the 23, saved (not stop living for that), and when I had approx. half the cost of housing saved, bought with a mortgage so I was missing (1998 prices, which will arrive, I am sure).

Greetings to all!

Hay una teoría que dice.. todo lo que sube baja
Paciencia amig@sya consumir productos nacionales!!!
y abrocharse un pelín más ese cinturón!!

#19, Euribor up up !!!

Sigo sin entender como eres tan ciego a los absurdos que escribes. ¿De dónde sacas que todo aquel que se ha hipotecado en los últimos años es un especulador?

Si quieres hacer un análisis que aporte algo (diferente al mosqueo o cachondeo generalizado) tendrías que empezar por tratar de no inventarte axiomas que no tienen ninguna base lógica. Otra cosa es que, como parece, tan sólo pretendas que el mundo vea que existes. Ah, en tal caso, ENHORABUENA. Conmigo lo has conseguido.

#20, Atila, el rey de los n anopisos

Comprueba también que el café de 3€ sea café, que no por ser más caro va a venir Juan Valdés a ponerlo en la taza.

El fondo de la cuestión es que un alquilado tiene más margen de maniobra para adaptarse a las circunstancias de su vida, le da más flexibilidad.
Por otro lado, la cuestión alquilar/comprar se reduce a lo afines que seamos a ello, porque tenemos argumentos a favor y en contra de una u otra opción. Y, tal y como es el ser humano, cuando nos equivocamos, deformamos nuestra realidad en favor de la decisión que tomamos. Y que conste que no digo que todos los que compraron se equivocaron, habrá casos y casos.
Yo soy de alquilar, en mi situación personal y en la situación económica de contexto, pero no lo defiendo ciegamente ya que tal vez, repito, tal vez, dentro de X años (o meses) sea más aconsejable la compra. Pero ahora mismo no lo es. Tampoco digo de estar 50 años alquilado, simplemente, las cosas a su tiempo.

Buenos días a todos.

Esta mañana,como todas hace ya 20 años me he intentado levantar con el pie derecho.Me he duchado,vestido y he desayunado.He intentado que en el trayecto que va desde casa hasta el trabajo,no tener ningún tropiezo con nadie mientras conducía.Al llegar al trabajo,como siempre,he saludado a todo el mundo,incluido al que sabía no me iba a devolver el saludo,y por fin me he sentado en el puesto de trabajo a lidiar esa jornada de trabajo intentando pasarla como cada día lo más amena,productiva y pacífica posible ya que por desgracia tengo que trabajar para pagar entre otros gastos la hipoteca.

En el tiempo del pequeño bocadillo que me como deprisa,tecleo euribor y salís vosotros, amigos,que aunque no os conozco,me imagino detrás de cada nick como sereis…

Quizás parece una chorrada lo que voy a decir pero,debéis de saber que es la única parte del día en el que no tengo contacto con un ser humano alguno,salvo con vuestras identidades, y es la única parte del días en el que me llaman Borrego,Analfabeto,y entre otras cosas desean que el euribor me queme a mí ya todo ser viviente que tenga una hipoteca.

Muchas gracias pero no,dejaré de teclear el nombre de este foro mientras desayuno, y no sabéis cuanto siento tener que dejar de saludar a vuestros nicks aunque sea cibernéticamente , tanto a los amigables como a los que no me lo devolvéis y me insultais.

Nos vemos, pero esta vez será en un foro en el que no abunde la malaleche.

Buenos dias a tod@s los euribenses:

Viendo como está el tema, lo realmente preocupante y lo que puede provocar una crisis o guerra es el tema del petróleo.

Los precios, el euribor… problemas que nos afectan directamente pero que, viendo como está el tema, tiene poca solución.

Ahora bien, el tema del crudo es muy diferente. Ya la última Guerra de Irak fue dirigida en ese sentido, y ni mucho menos tenía algo que ver con las famosas armas de destrucción masiva. La cuestión era crearse una posición privilegiada en una zona donde la producción de petróleo es muy importante.

Lo mismo ocurrió con Chaves en Venezuela . Financiado inicialmente por USA para crearse un “esbirro” en otro lugar del mundo donde la producción de petróleo también es muy importante, pero que finalmente, ya pesar del golpe de estado que le montaron, es totalmente contrario al régimen EEUU.

Y seguro que alguna que otra maniobra politica más que se escapa o que no sale a la luz.

Geopolitica y geoestrategia que se escapa a nuestro conocimiento . Al menos al mio.

El petróleo ayer subió más de 4$ por barril… se paga ya en futuros a 140$. El biodiesel pierde fuelle, debido a la crisis alimenticia e incluso dejará de ser subvencionado. No sé que tiene relación con qué, pero está claro que empiezo a ver conexiones.

Me pongo nervioso, porque a veces pienso que los politicos, sobre todo el “yankee” , están jugando una partida al Risk. Su tarjeta de objetivo le dice que conquiste Siria, Iran y que tiene que derruir al gobierno de Chaves, que es quien nos está jodiendo el petróleo. Eso es lo que me preocupa.

Saludos a tod@s.

# 6 CVR

Hola a todos
Con todo mi respeto cvr , sobre el alquiler o la compra , imaginaté que pides un prestamo al 5% sobre 260000 € a 30 años sería una cuota de 1395 € mensuales , que al fina pagarias 502200 €; a esto como también tu sabes la vivivenda con el tiempo se deteriora , que si las tuberias , que si la calefacción ……pon otros 10000€ total 512000€ ( en 30 años)
Alquilamos una vivienda tipo medio 600 € (aumentando la inflación anual) nos daría una media de unos 300000 € ; el casero se ocupa de los desperfectos , si los vecinos por lo que sea ,me dejan de caerme simpáticos , me cambio de barrio y además tengo una diferencia de 212000 € , para ¡ VIVIR QUE SON DOS DÍAS¡

#33 Fran,
te recomiendo encarecidamente que, antes de hacernos creer que dominas la información económica, leas los documentos que pasas.

Estás enlazando a un documento del año 2003 (5 añazos de nada). Es un documento muy bonito que muestra la evolución pasada del precio de la vivienda. Pero en la previsión “futura” no vale nada, puesto que preveía una caída en picado del precio de la vivienda a partir de 2003 y que empezaría a recuperarse en 2007. Justo lo contrario de lo que ha pasado.

Es más, este documento muestra argumentos a favor de las tesis burbujiles:

- La vivienda sí ha bajado varias veces en España (axioma nº1 del cipotecado ejpañol).

- Ha habido una burbuja muy fuerte: el ciclo que los expertos del BDE preveían de ciclo bajista, ha sido realmente una aceleración del ciclo alcista. Esto hace prever bajadas muy severas.

Así que bueno, puesto que el documento me gusta mucho y da la razón a mis tesis, no tendré en cuenta la patinada que has pegado ni que has intentado calzárnosla mediante una falacia Ad-Hominem .

Veo dolor, mucho dolor…