April 2008
You're watching the articles of Euribor for the month of April 2008.
No doubt some day we live very sensitive with a fierce speculation on certain raw materials. Perhaps the most notice and may influence the economy of the civilized countries is oil, but today we'll talk about other raw materials rather interesting. What will it be?
- It is the second most traded commodity in the world (after petroleum)
- Its main producer is Brazil, and behind him, Vietnam
- Finland is the largest consumer per capita
- Its production of 125 million people depend
- Five companies buy nearly half of world production: Kraft, Nestle, Procter & Gamble and Sara Lee, whose sales generate annual profits of the order of one billion dollars.
- And, to make it easy: Each year, 400,000 million drinking cups of this product.
Indeed, you have guessed that many insurance and you're taking one now.
Interestingly, the amount of chances you have to invest a further than we imagined, in very liquid markets (and in the case of coffee, plus hot), such as futures price of oil, coffee or even of pig guts. Therefore, given the interconnectedness that are currently in the economy is normal that a crisis affecting also to raw materials and what is more dangerous to food. Hence the rise in prices is a serious problem for developing countries.
The Bagel Delight is a chain of stores in New York where the specialty is the bagel, a kind of typical savory Donut of this city. For weeks, his establishment of Brooklyn, there is a poster with which warns that global grain prices have skyrocketed and the flour had done a 325% in the past year. The bagel will rise.
For their clients, the rising world price of wheat, is a small problem. For poor countries or developing countries, where the percentage of income devoted to purchasing food is significantly higher than in developed ones (up to three quarters in some cases), the sharp rise in the price of wheat, rice, sugar or soybeans is causing serious social unrest in Haiti, Egypt, Bangladesh and Pakistan among other countries. The reason is that overall prices of foodstuffs have risen by 83% since February 2007 and there is hunger.
The less disturbing.
Around here, if we are hungry we can do is lengthen the term of the mortgage free, to pay less each month, but is it worth?. Who do not know anything, but in Invertia us remember the article entitled: Enlarge the mortgage could quadruple the price of the house with current rates.
The Zapatero government approved on Friday a package of measures to revive the economy that includes free from now on the postponement of mortgages those citizens who have difficulty coping payments. However, consumer organizations warn that the interests runaway if they can resort to this option. In fact, according to the calculations of Invertia, the average mortgage in our country, amounting to 147,000 euros, according to the latest data from the INE-cost nearly three times the capital if requested to hire 50 years and could quadruple the original amount if the Euribor (the rate at which mortgages are tied most of the mortgages in our country) is still rebounding in the coming months.
While we are the government, will lower the forecast of economic growth. We have to see how things change in just over a month.
Secretary of State for the Economy David Vegara, said today that "in the coming weeks or even days," but in any case "before May", the Government will revise its forecasts for economic growth, taking into account that There are "risks to the bottom" and that the initial projections have been "somewhat outdated".
It looks that do not connect here for many months, when they could see the oil for $ 70 rather than $ 114 now. I am afraid we have to get used to expensive oil.
Since we are talking about big numbers, we have the Royal Bank of Scotland makes history: making the capital increase largest in Europe. 15,000 million euros neither more nor less.
Written by Carlos Lopez on April 22, 2008 with 250 comments
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"CONFUSION confusion, Dialogues between a curious acute philosopher, a merchant discreet, and a shareholder scholar" is the first book bag of history, written in 1688 by the Spanish D. Jose de la Vega. Os leave a few lines of the book, I've found here.
Philosopher: And what business is it that, although I have heard many times from him, nor understand it, nor have I applied to understand, I have not found any book that speaks in him to understand that?
Shareholder: Well I say that I do not know anything, oh Barbón [bearded] friend, because you have no knowledge of business a enigmatic, which is the most real and most true is that Europe, the most noble and most infamous hearing world, the finest and the most rude exercising the globe: the map of science and epitome of entanglements; touchstone for the attentive and stone tomb of daring; treasure of profits and incentive of increasing, and ultimately a portrait of Sisyphus that never rests, and a symbol of Ixion who always walks in a wheel alive.
Filósfo: Did not he deserve my curiosity a short epilogue of this lie, and a statement compendiums of this enigma?
Merchant: I, too, I beg of you, poker walk so tired committees, cargazones and turns, I would like to apply to this new job, to see if I can aquistar a fotruna and exit at the cost of risk, so many endeavors.
Shareholder: The best and most amusing of all is that, without risk, poddéis der rich, and without exposing the flow of storms, for the [correspondence], disbursements, warehouses, transportation, ATMs, bankruptcies and other accidents unthinkable, are ruined by achieve affluence, moving only the name in the deviations: So if the Hebrews, in suffering from dangerous diseases, move the name to get the improvement, enough to recognize that shareholder is wrong, move the name to get rid of all the dangers that it threatening, and all that worried Rider. "
The book also gives us some interesting tips:
- "If distrust, not ordered, and if ordered, no topic"
- "For what you, yourself, advises a discreet"
- "Ostentatiously with a proud feat is not defeated, but cowardice"
- "There is no delight bolsistas whose weaving nets, hooks, but do"
- "Not wanting to put the biggest gain greater danger, but little to win and win safe"
Interestingly, as after more than 300 years many of the tips and principles listed in this book remain fully valid.
Now if I were to write a book describing the current economic situation, it surely also entitled "Confusion of confusion." If not, that is to say what the poor Icelanders, a small land with many natural resources being one of the countries most affected by the current crisis. So what we have in the world: Iceland, a small country frozen by a huge financial crisis.
Since the beginning of the year, the Icelandic krona was devalued by 25% while the stock market has plummeted 40% since last summer. In addition, inflation rises to 6.8% and interest rates reached 15.5% last week. On the other hand, the game in its trade balance is charged, mainly because of the consumption expenditure in recent years.
I commented the other day on the blog friend "Gurusblog" in his article "The Hedge Funds attack Iceland"
Probably, this olvidad island of 300,000 inhabitants is the main victim of the credit crunch that began last August. It is somewhat paradoxical that one of the countries with the highest income per capita in the world (about 54,000 U.S. dollars), with an unemployment rate touching 1%, a country with the fourth highest rate of productivity in the world and that 99 % Of the generation of electricity comes from renewable sources, and whose economy had grown at rates of 4-6% in recent years, seeing this now with all of its financial system (banking and state) is in check.
As you can see, we are talking about the paradigm of sustainable development and can be ruined.
But if we talk about confusion, are the growth projections for this year in Spain. The government says a figure, the IMF said the half and reached the Bank of Santander and is left between the two, saying that he believes the Spanish economy will grow by 2.5% in 2008.
Banco Santander estimates that the Spanish economy will grow by 2.5% in 2008, more than one percentage point less than in the previous year (3.8%), as a result of unfavorable climate and the adjustment of the real estate sector.
This forecast is above other much more pessimistic as the IMF (1.8%), Func (2%), and even the Bank of Spain (2.4%), although it remained far from the 3.1% who still holds the Government.
Well, at least everyone thinks that something we grow ...
And to end debate and revive the "rent vs. buy" and stop talking about transfers (with their respective synonyms) I leave with you an article that appeared yesterday in The Country: Spain wakes up to rent.
Written by Carlos Lopez on April 21, 2008 with 195 comments
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And I do not speak the chairman of the government unless the guild of manufacturers of shoes and boots. They say the refranero Spanish is very wise, but what would have happened if all the shoemakers have been devoted exclusively to their shoes?. Let's look at the history of a company that began manufacturing paper and rubber boots: Nokia. You can read the full document here.
Nokia was founded in 1864 near the river Nokia in Finland, and after "aprendeher" the secrets of the manufacture of paper pulp, won the bronze medal at the World Fair in Paris. That was the first time where the Nokia brand began to be recognized, the second major milestone of its founder was to start implementing the branding on all its products in fact as many of the marketing gurus this was one of the first cases of branding that are worth is noteworthy in the history of marketing and putting the iso and logo on each and every one of their products, even in the industrial
After the Second World War Finland was forced to pay reparations to the USSR by the war, and Nokia had to start providing cable as part of these "repairs", at one point came to have 25% of its production for the Soviet government and ended up being its biggest customer.
For strategic decision because at that time began to "break away" from that customer and begin their first communications products. The president at that time was Kari Kairamo the "originator" of this change in focus. In fact for 1987 was the main electronics business of Nokia.
Computers, monitors, televisions, communications equipment, modems, etc.. With many acquisitions along the way, became the first in many of these branches.
In 1992, Nokia introduced the "father of the GSM cellular" Nokia 1011y from there begins to grow at impressive rates.
The rest of the story, I believe and know that we are living.
Currently Nokia is one of the largest companies in Europe and a good barometer of consumption. Yesterday presented results and not convinced the market that was drop in the stock market by 14%.
The technology company plummeted 13.45% in a bag of Finland after announcing that its net profit rose 25% in the first quarter, up from 1,250 million euros. Analysts were expecting half of 1380 million euros, but have been disappointed by the increase in costs and profit forecasts and warnings on the impact of the euro in the accounts.
We see that the strong euro starts to move bill. On the other side of the pond, we have another superempresa that did well the tasks that Google presented results and beat forecasts. All indications are that today will fly on the stock.
Here in Spain we have the government today approved the "emergency plan" to revive the economy, with a cost of 10.000 million. Not bad for a crisis which according to them does not exist.
And as Friday, with just the comments of the week (the most voted by readers). Usually a highlight, but this time worth two:
# 10, TonySkl
April 17, 2008, at 9:53.
(more ...)
Written by Carlos Lopez on April 18, 2008 with 233 comments
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As far as we can see in other countries, in what may be in Spain we can not complain at all. Although we have sausages, politicians, swindlers, corrupt and other ilk have no true and genuine Mafia, one that is capable of making proposals that we could not refuse.
Who knows whether due to a liquidity crisis, we will have to go to a billiards for a personal loan, having to negotiate a settling of accounts with a promoter given to the escape or find a quick way to end the mortgage.
Therefore, it is worth continuing some tips for doing business with the mob that I have read here. Let's see what are the recommendations for survival in the mob that gives us "Provenzano, a member of the" Cosa Nostra "for more than 40 years.
1. Invisibility or Relativity: Provenzano instructed the mob to avoid any activities that attract advertising. If the owner of a factory refused to pay, no one should burn down their trucks or machinery. The peaceful persuasion was the only way. The old system was to shoot first and ask the questions later, but the new times required to assess the possible consequences of any hostile action. There was a need to consider how they could do more harm a person, whether alive or dead, revealed Giuffrè.
2. Mediation: Be calm, clear, smooth and steady, not ignore everything they say or believe them to the other juntillas feet. Always try to find out what the truth before speaking, and remember that to do a trial, enough is never a single source of information.
3. Consensus: Provenzano instructed his men in the art of negotiation and dialogue. He coordinated the activities of different groups competing with each other without imposing their will. He was the undisputed leader, but gave the impression that its decisions are taken after a long consultation.
4. Direction and guidance (God as an ally): Another asset of the head of the Cosa Nostra was to have God on their side. Was shown as a pious man, as a kind of pastor who could rely on and whose letters were read as a homily. Even included numerous passages from the Bible.
5. Flexible Policy: Provenzano not hesitated to switch their allegiance to one or the other, provided that their business so warrants. Sought to politicians who were ready to help and not hesitated to give back 24 hours later if necessary.
6. Reinvention: In the event of political scandal or a failure of the business, the boss considered vital to be able to distance himself from the case. Even recommended to acquire a whole new personality, if necessary.
7. Modesty: During his career, Provenzano went from a mere hired assassin to become an investor business, a political brain and, ultimately, a strategist or leader. Part of his mystique is that no one knew if it really was a genius or a real illiterate. To emphasize his humble nature and presented himself as a simple man of the people wrote letters full of spelling mistakes and if he signed with the same humble apology: "I ask forgiveness for my spelling mistakes ..."
Undoubtedly, some excellent advice for many economic activities, both legal and illegal.
The article is scheduled for today (while writing the play with Valencia Getafe) so that it take to bring news of the day and begin cutting into each and every one of the commentaries on the Ebro and that although it has its economic implications are comes out, much of the end of this blog.
At the moment I stay with this news from Wednesday evening, which are quite interesting:
Update. Some news of the day:
Written by Carlos Lopez on April 17, 2008 with 204 reviews
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Coca Cola is such a dark liquid that accompanies the Canata and whose formula was invented on May 5, 1886 by a Sciences with the intention of being a medicine for the brain and nerves. The secret ingredient is called Merchandise 7X and around it are many urban legends (or marketing strategies) to differentiate the drink of competition.
But the value of Coca Cola are not their ingredients. We are in the era of the Internet and get a formula equal to or better among all is a matter of time, for it as if it were an operating system, has created the "Open Cola" in which anyone can join to achieve soda Definitive.
So What is the value of Coca Cola? Why is the main investment richest man in the world (Warren Buffet) is this company?.
Every two years, the consulting firm Interbrand compiles a ranking with the most valuable brands and in its latest survey back to Coca Cola followed by Microsoft and IBM. McDonald's (8th), Google (20th), Sony (25th), Nike (29th), Apple (33rd), Ikea (38 degrees), eBay (48 degrees), Yahoo! (55 th), Zara (64th), Adidas (69th) and Starbucks (88 degrees) are among the brands included in this year's list.
As you can see, we are talking about companies that go beyond their products, we talk about lifestyle, image, values and everything that identifiquéis behind your logo. But ... what if the mortgage goes above these values? In this case, you may find that consumers spent less on clothing and wagering by the white marks.
The Spanish families were spending containing clothes and shoes, in perfumery and personal hygiene as a result of the current economic situation, while increasing its spending on food, gamble on the white marks in the most inflationary, and fuel for the price hikes.
It certainly is very interesting to see the "smart consumer" that can lead to a current economic situation, the possibility of maintaining the standard of living while passing the "slowdown". Will the crisis ending tyranny of the brands?.
Where we are not very smart is the time to receive inheritances and the Spaniards, d ince 2000, we forgot to charge 54 million in this concept.
Neither children nor parents, or spouses, or siblings and nephews ... When the list of possible successors is depleted, the beneficiary of the property of a deceased person is the rule. It is not very common, but it happens. In fact, since 2000 has earned 54 million euros by way of inheritance "forgotten". Of that money, 34 million came from the heritage of the deceased, and the other 20 current accounts and funds that were ownerless. When inherits the State is required to allocate one third of the estate to municipal institutions of charity, social action and professionals, whether state or private entities to another one-third of such provincial level, and the last third to "cancel public debt, "according to the law.
To which I say that if you do not have either children or parents or spouses, or siblings and nephews ... do not hesitate to leave me to my inheritance, which I will make good use of it (better than the state, I swear to you).
That if you are going to leave a good legacy, but he is duedas to Aisa real estate that will eventually enter into an arrangement with creditors (receivership). Another not going well and the same has to sell his gold medallion is the charismatic "Paco the Pocero" that their promotion on Seseña had to conform with a salary mileurista to win only 18,000 €. That is not filled or the tank of his boat to sail. Attentive to their situation as dramatic:
The situation is such that the Pocero has had to sell much of their precious jewels to restore liquidity. Was forced to discard and three of their private jets, the newspaper La Voz de La Sagra and I Clarena yacht, the strength that just entering their most cherished friends and those with whom they wanted to close lucrative business, as the failed purchase of Puerto Portals, Palma de Mallorca.
In this way, you'll see along with the nearly 2 million people who do not pay their debts in Spain.
Two million four hundred thousand people are already on the list of defaulters of the National Association of Financial Institutions Credit (Asnef), which also includes about 300,000 companies. Among all about accumulating debts with financial institutions or other companies, of 11,838 million euros.
Especially important is the upswing of late has been lived in the past two years. In late 2006, according to the data itself in Asnef collected by Efe, nearly 1.7 million people living in Spain and 250,000 businesses remained without paying debts. Last summer, just when the crisis began "subprime", the number of arrears amounted to 1.8 million people, so that delinquency has increased in recent months.
Finally, and to try to brighten the day for some, I leave with you an interview with Simon Johnson, chief economist of the International Monetary Fund, whose head is: "There is room for the ECB to cut rates in the short term."
Written by Carlos Lopez on April 16, 2008 with 177 comments
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Knowing who are the threads that move can better understand how the world works. To do this, it better to look at the 10 largest companies in the world, which produces an annual listing of Forbes magazine.
Upon seeing the sectors in which they work, we realize the importance of the current economic situation, with a liquidity crisis and high oil. 6 Companies belonging to the sector Banking / Investment / Insurance and 3 at the chemical sector (mainly oil and gas). The big consumer companies in which we all thought, such as Microsoft have to look from post 50. Until then, most are centered in the same sectors. Money and oil.
Today we have raised with good news for the Spanish stock exchange and is that Repsol Stock market soars to find a giant reservoir of crude. Vigilant, because the news can have many implications.
The euphoria contained queen at the headquarters of Repsol YPF. After years in which America did not reach more than dislikes in the form of news, has been a joy to offset nearly all the recent setbacks. Oil. Oil in enormous quantities. That is what is in the depths of the sea in block BM-S-9, known as Carioca, in which Repsol has a 25% stake. The deposit was discovered in September but has now when it has been known its true dimension. The field could reach 33,000 million barrels, according to Brazilian government sources, which would be the largest discovery of crude oil in 30 years to become Brazil and the eighth in the world oil power, ahead of countries like Libya or Nigeria.
This news will affect not only Repsol, it also affects those companies with big stakes on the first, such as Criteria or Sacyr, both members of the IBEX 35.
What has surprised me most is the zero impact of this news (or notición) in the oil price, it seems that it is completely at your own pace marked by the dollar and with a clear speculative component beyond supply and demand.
As for the other dominant sector of the global world, the financial news today is that there is no news, and frankly, for which we are giving is something that we should cheer.
Written by Carlos Lopez on April 15, 2008 with 191 comments
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(4.52 sobre 5) 