George Soros

Hello to everyone s,

Have you seen what he has said the International Monetary Fund? That in Spain there will be a fall in house prices of 20% and that the situation is untenable!

If the IMF says this is like a bunch of billionaires conservatives and speculators, who is going to be much worse if not for the time.

Greetings.

# 5, JOSETE

Good! The first thing to say that CAPITAL hurt ... and you could build at least a little bit your comment ...

You are right that many of the comments that we find in this blog too widespread in prices of housing, rent, alimientos, public transport ... not just because they have more of their city.

I luckily I have lived in more than one city in Spain (Madrid, Albacete), and some people and I can compare living standards ...

Right now I'm in Albacete, and the truth is that housing not be as overvalued as in Madrid, if it is true that this a bit, especially since the average salary here is much smaller than in Madrid.

So my conclusion after living in various cities is that housing is overvalued in the majority of them (even in town) and now when supply exceeded this is when those prices are adjusted.

What our customers are going to you is not so much who are traumatized by psychosis, which is surely familiar to anyone with problems paying your mortgage, or someone who can not sell the floor ...

There is no psychosis in the street ... there is a reality.

By not think anything now, I'm still asleep ... but it's my dream to meet me and see my date in the post.

Very interesting life of Soros, but jo, the holocaust of the mortgaged ...
I bought my house a few months ago and I have the feeling of being a hamster that is inside a wheel that can not stop, you have to keep running inside the wheel. I think I'm going to make a leap and it will take for cul-o-pu-ta to the wheel.

... And interesting article. because they do not say .... something apocalyptic.
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We need to start thinking about changing the pattern of world currencies.

CAMBRIDGE. This month, when financial leaders of the world are in Washington during the annual World Bank-International Monetary Fund, should perhaps give thanks that there are no clear alternative to the dollar as global currency standard. If the euro were ready, we could be seeing a jump in its exchange rate against the dollar over 2, instead of 1.65 or 1.70 that will come anyway. You can not treat customers as badly as the United States has tried to theirs lately if they can go to another place.

In the past six years, the value of the dollar weighted on the basis of trade has fallen more than 25 percent as the U.S. has continued to accumulate an unprecedented trade deficit. With a soft economy, a financial system badly damaged and serious concerns about rising inflation, the trend of the dollar in the long term is downward, regardless of how the current crisis ends. And not finished.

It is unlikely that the rescue of the financial system that has made the Federal Reserve stands, unless the banks get fresh capital, and a lot. Sovereign wealth funds, extremely rich, they have the money to rescue U.S. banks. But that does not seem at the moment to do so, even if the U.S. political system allowed it. Instead, as long as the contraction of credit and falling prices for real estate, is likely to be a gigantic rescue real estate, which will cost U.S. taxpayers a trillion dollars or more.
The problem is that, after so many years of miserable returns on dollar assets, will global investors really willing to absorb another trillion dollars of U.S. debt to anything that looks like interest rates and current exchange rates ?

Today, the U.S. debt hardly looks like a bargain, even with the fall of the dollar. The military distant remain setbacks pressing fiscal resources of the country and, according to a recent study by Linda Bilman and Joseph Stiglitz, the potential cost would reach several billion dollars.

Next year there will surely be a huge rise in corporate bankruptcies in the United States, even though many companies came to the recession with relatively strong balance sheets. State and municipal finances are in even worse conditions. Faced with falling revenues because of declining home prices and incomes, dozens of U.S. municipalities could well break, as happened to the city of New York in the 70s. The municipal bonds are already trading in risk premiums enormous and still does not even reach the first bankruptcy government.

Of course, if in the short term the dollar lost its place as the world's dominant currency, the euro would be the only serious alternative. The yuan could replace the dollar in the second half of the century, but the draconian capital controls in China and the great financial repression currently disqualify it as an anchor of the global economic system.

Fortunately for the dollar, the euro also appears to have its problems. European banks continue Balkanized, with a series of national regulators seeking to promote their own banks. The debt of all European governments may be denominated in euro, but German and Italian debt are hardly the same thing, so the market for government lacks the Eurobonds depth and liquidity of the market for Treasury bonds in the United States.

In addition, international investors can buy and sell real estate with much greater ease in the U.S. than in much of Europe. And the absence of a tax policy that covers the entire continent creates a significant uncertainty about how the European Central Bank would be funded if it suddenly faced large losses due to bank debts scrap after a ransom important.

But the rising euro has strengths. For the market exchange rates today, the European Union is now larger economically than the United States. The new members
Central and Eastern Europe have brought great dynamism and flexibility.

At the same time, the ECB has gained considerable credibility because of his handling of the global credit crisis. Indeed, if the euro zone can convince England to become a full member, and thus becomes one of the world's major financial centers (London), the euro beginning to emerge as a truly viable alternative to the dollar.

In 1971, when the dollar collapsed towards the end of the system of fixed exchange rate after the Second World War, the secretary of the U.S. Treasury, John Connally, made his famous declaration at their foreign counterparts: "The dollar is our currency, but the problem is yours. " And since then, the supreme global status of the dollar has survived, despite the many episodes of neglect and abuse.

The patterns of global currencies have enormous inertia. The British pound only ceded its place to the U.S. dollar after more than 50 years of industrial decline and two world wars. But this time could be much faster. While bankers and finance ministers consider how to intervene to support the dollar, should also start thinking about what to do when the time comes to change.

* Kenneth Rogoff is Professor of Economics and Public Policy at Harvard University and was formerly chief economist at the IMF.

# 6, TonySkl

Good! The first thing to say that the misspellings hurt ...

"No more have seen their city"

You mean the tree? Or wanted to say that they do not see beyond ...

Good morning brothers and sisters of the forum.
Often takes a scare Friday morning, I see the Euribor yesterday, leaving a pretty average month and today the announcement of IMF metiéndonos more fear, is that if it is in our bodies.
The best news of the day today should be a miracle, that somewhere in the world have found a mine of money, that is inexhaustible and have found the bankers, who relying including that the difference between the price index of money from the ECB and the Euribor is not normal.
With regard to the investor's article today, really want to invest in the stock exchange, albeit slightly, and feel the sensation that you upload or download your investment. But as I have a hiccup right now, 30 years pending and two girls, because that is going to be no, I will try to invest in my family, surely the years will be my biggest and best investment.
Good wishes for this Friday and all and I wish you all a great weekend.

Definitely we are in crisis.

Yesterday I went to ikea (SS de los Reyes) by n-th time this year. And while we are at the beginning of the month was nearly empty. Amazingly site had to park up at the door. I have not seen well in life.

I think we see Ikea semi desert is a good indicator of what is wrong for the picture. If people do not buy nor there ... Of course, a great buy in these conditions.

These days by reading the articles of Carlos Lopez and comments you do, on various topics, I have learned a lot about things that had not previously understood. But the truth is that the person who most helped me to understand everything, has been the doorman at my house. And everything comes with the following: In the basement we have a piece of boiler for heating. The buy a couple of years ago. Worth an egg and we are going to cost to pay for the strip. While some call it, affectionately, the "mortgage". (Some protested at the time saying that the price of the boiler was over valued. But neither case. Acquisition).
We describe the neighbors with whom story:

0 .- The ground floor is the Dolores, the portress. Colombian girl is a very maja, helpful and unobtrusive to which we all call it, affectionately, the "Rumors".
1 .- The first live Jacobo (the higher the more stupid), which is a quite separate pasta (inheritance) that walks always assuming that is known throughout Europe because they travel a lot and such and such. A hidden, some dubbed him the "EURO". This Jacobo owns several of the floors. Some have hired the other empty and the other occupied by his ex-wife.
2 .- The second is the truck's Ramon. What I mean is that Ramon is working with the truck that we shared the gasoil for heating. I have understood that for every trip that makes for refueling, comisioncilla any charges, according to the liter, or something. The poor will always hurry pulp and these bonuses will come good. Ramon affectionately call him the "CONSUMPTION".
3 .- The third is a neighbor of Uncle cojonudo, which uncovers the bottles tight ...
Jones. It is Cuban exile. One neighbor said that Pigeon (well call him), holds great hidden talents. I see very Simpaticone. But just that. They will know.
4 .- In the fourth I live. That is, in the middle, as on Thursday.
5 .- In the fifth American three sisters are leased from Idaho (I can personally testify to that "and therefore they have dao"). According to Dolores, the doorman, these girls were in a country music group. It was called the "subprime" or something. They are very beautiful and nice. With another mentality. My mother-in-law says they are very lightweight helmets, which are moved by and that interest rates are always very rare (?). The truth is that one is very good, another regular, and the third ... is more doubtful. But the three very beautiful.
6 .- In the sixth lives Alfonso, the president of the Community. Is director of a branch of the Caja de San Quirze and close friend of James, the first of. As much demand, all you call the "Bernanke." I understand that he advises James to reverse the pasta and, further, as it is known that some flats for rent, he submitted to the fifth American girls, who were looking for a place to stay in Spain. I think that in his country had trouble with the floor, or his representative by some who had recorded CD'S (Credit Default Swaps was entitled) or something. Who do not speak good American.
7 .- In the seventh live Bernardo Expósito Casanova, which call for shortening the ECB. It is a guaperas with a computer company that does not know who told me that meant a lot of bubbles. I do not know. Something of the Coca Cola should be.
8 .- Finally, in the eighth, which is a beautiful attic, lives Miriam, the former wife of Jacob. It's like the survivors, but with even less clothing. All the neighbors look up to see if we see it. That's why we call the "inflation" and because everyone says that the "known" but none of us think so.
Of course, as with all good community neighbors, we have a manager. It is a very serious viejote with a very unusual name. Something like "nostokolostipospesaosdelculo." Must be of Greek origin. We understand him to call the "Trich", which is easier. Es el que anualmente nos determina la cuota de comunidad que tenemos que pagar cada vecino, en función de los metros, los enteros y esas cosas que nunca se lo que son, además de por los litros de gasoil, la derrama de la caldera (que no se por qué derrama si es nueva), etc. Lleva dos años dándonos “poor enculator” con las cuotas de comunidad. Yo a estas cuotas las llamo “LOS TIPOS” porque es la referencia que tengo para saber lo que me queda disponible para cubatas y papas bravas (patatas, pa’n’fender al klero).

La cuestión es que hay un problema con la calefacción y han convocado una reunión urgente y extraordinaria de vecinos porque el gasto aumenta y nos tememos una subida de las cuotas de comunidad. Los primeros pisos que mucho calor. Los de arriba que poco calor. Yo, en medio como el jueves, ni frío ni calor. Jacobo dice que la culpa es de Miriam, su ex mujer, porque abre la ventana para que todos la vean y que eso hace que se pierda el calor y que por eso gastamos demasiado gasoil. Ramón el del camión, sudando siempre, dice que el no tiene la culpa del precio del gasoil. Miriam dice que la culpa es de Jacobo que se queda con todas las calorías (como se quedó todo en la separación) y por el apaño que les hizo en los radiadores a las chicas del quinto. Pichón, el cubano, se limita a decir siempre “¡azúuucar!” (Supongo que tendrá algo que ver con las calorías. Cualquier día lo invito a un Cuba libre). Bernardo opina que es un problema con un radiador de Miriam, por lo que a todas horas sube a su casa para purgarle no se que burbuja en la válvula de en medio que gotea. Jacobo recela de Bernardo. No se por qué. Pero sube a espiarle.
Las americanas no saben bien en que posición colocarse. Por el interés que tienen en que Jacobo no les suba el alquiler, le apoyan. Porque Ramón las lleve en el camión, le apoyan. Porque Alfonso les presentó a Jacobo, lo apoyan. Porque Bernardo purga muy bien las burbujas, lo apoyan. Porque Miriam está muy buena y ellas como americanas no son sexistas, la apoyan.

La cosa es que en todo este lío, yo soy el que menos me entero. Por eso hablé con Dolores, la portera, y ella, en términos macroeconómicos me lo explicó muy fácil:

Según Rumores: Tricher, cada vez que aparece en una reunión, declara que quiere bajar los tipos pero que no puede hacerlo porque el BCE tiene un lío con la inflación, que está muy alta (no te jode. Vive en el ático) porque aun no ha digerido el problema que tuvo en el pasado con el Euro. Todos miramos a Bernanke que es más dado a bajar los tipos por el problema que tienen las subprime con los intereses. Pero claro, esto nos puede provocar un problema con el consumo. Esto me explica por qué permanentemente el euro sube para ver si el BCE controla la inflación. Pero a mi no me lo explica todo. Y encima, según Rumores, la culpa de todo la tengo yo. ¿YO? ¿Por qué?
Según rumores, yo paro poco por la comunidad, me la sudan el euro y el consumo, he oído hablar de las subprime pero no me he beneficiado de ninguna, escasamente se a qué se dedica el BCE y solo me preocupo de si Miriam a encontrado a JAC. Así que entre Bernanke y Tricher no paran de jodernos la hipoteca y al único que se divierte le llaman Pichón.

PD. Por cierto. Según rumores a mí también me tienen puesto un mote en la comunidad. Parece que por mi independencia y porque estoy en medio de todo el fregado, me llaman el EURIBOR. Visto lo visto y visto lo de hoy. Me voy a invertir en bolsa.

#6, TonySkl

Tienes razón, las mayúsculas duelen, y aprovecho para romper una lanza en favor de la correcta ortografía y de la gramática española. Por favor, tened (sí tened y no tener) un poquito de cuidado al escribir. Entiendo que todo el mundo puede cometer alguna falta de ortografía, pero a diario veo auténticas barbaridades que, literalmente, consiguen que me duelan los ojos. A todos aquellos que no diferencian el infinitivo del imperativo, por favor tened (no tener) más cuidado. A los que utilizan el verbo “haber” tan alégremente, decirles que para llamar la atención o para recalcar lo que se quiere decir se utiliza el verbo “ver”. A ver si tenemos un poquito de cuidado, por favor. Podría seguir con la utilización de “sino” y “si no” y otras muchas, pero creo que se ma ha entendido y que no es necesario seguir.

No pretendo darle lecciones a nadie. Tan solo quiero que leer este foro no pase de ser algo ameno a algo tedioso.

TonySkl, sin acritud, pero “haya” es un árbol (el adverbio de lugar es “allá”)

Gracias.

dos cositas;
A todo el mundo se le puede escapar una falta de ortografía, pero al ser este un medio escrito semi permanente (aunque a veces escribamos como si estuviésemos leyendo), las faltas de ortografía permanecen en el tiempo, y se leen una y otra vez. Cuando uno ve escritas faltas de ortografía con regularidad, es más fácil que acabe cometiéndolas. No entiendo porqué le molesta a la gente que le digan “oye, que haber es con hy con b”. Bueno, pues la próxima se corrije y punto. No te están diciendo gilipollas ni nada por el estilo. Y lo único que están reivindicando es su derecho a no leer cosas que le puedan hacer dudar al escribir en el futuro.

Las faltas de ortografía no tienen nada que ver con la libertad de expresión, más bien son un cohartar el derecho a la educación de los demás por parte de quien las comete.

Y aquí estamos para aprender de economía, pero se habla de patatas, cerveza y diversas maneras de taparla con una cucharita, ille tempore, collige virgo rosam, y lo que toque. Digo yo.

#37, 400€:

Serán netos. No te van a quitar el IRPF de una devolución del IRPF, ¿no?