January 2008
You're watching the articles of Euribor for the month of January 2008.
Now I begin to understand the crisis of confidence in the U.S., have to be very bad things out there when a man must pay 750,000 U.S. dollars to another by seducing his wife, which is normal with the morale on the floor. That this country ...
For here we are significantly better, besides having a much more lax in terms seductive, our chairman of the government yesterday spoke with his usual optimism and hope that everything goes well. Among other things commented that the pessimism has never created a job and I thank him for such a sentence as it has inspired me the article today.
Life insurance, military industry, preventive services, private security, healthcare, pension plans, and even if I apurais, the purchase of housing (such as saving for lean times), are part of what we might call "economy of pessimism "as you see, ironies of life, pessimism is also optimistic his side. The great fortunes have been built in major crisis, moments when we can buy cheap and benefit from the panic of the people. The clearest example is in his bag with tools of futures and derivatives that allow us to win big when the stock market falls. With this, and as if this were a manual self, one must not view the crisis as a threat to our finances if not as an opportunity.
As for the matters to us, meets today to see what the ECB does with interest rates, no changes are expected, and as always we will have to wait to later press conference to try to understand that we Trichet said, well more than which tells us the message that loose between the lines as it was not a very direct kind of communication.
Spain still pulling the dead of the cabinet, this time it's up to Unicaja to be 'eat' losses of 22 million euros from its customers for high-risk loans. It seems that far off what we saw "subprime" but here we are doing something pupa and must be wrong when 14% of the mortgage payments has been delayed at least once in the last ye and 52% of respondents have more than three Receivables in force, figures that seem a bit swollen but that something real hidden safe.
And finally, I recommend you see the cover of The Economist today.
Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 10, 2008 with 229 reviews
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Bad things must walk when a man moves into an IKEA store.
Mark Malkoff, 31, moved to the IKEA store in the city of Elizabeth, New Jersey, for a week while his apartment in New York City was sprayed, because the apartments of his friends were too small to accommodate it and very expensive hotels.
Fortunately advertising campaign is more than that of real crisis, but this kind of news, which malinterpredas, exaggerated and read above you can lead to thinking that really, the end of the world yield to us. And that itself is what happened yesterday on Wall Street, suddenly the rumor was that Countrywide Financial, a leading mortgage banks in the U.S. was going to declare bankruptcy and thus good stock market fell in no less than 28 % Dragging with it a large part of the market. There seems to be very keen to bury the dead before they die. Although indications that there is another crisis as, according to Merrill Lynch: "The U.S. recession is a reality"
The same thing happens in Spain with the property sector in general are very keen that those who were lined at the expense of our mortgages to pay for their sins, but we must not stop thinking about the collateral damage of a real crisis in our country, is what we have in Elconomista titled as The Castle and sinks to falling real estate other sectors are 'collateral damage' of the crisis.
Devices, doors, bricks, tiles, electrical ... What happens to all these sectors? They all go into the background when we think of the time living the construction sector, but certainly more materials which are essential for any housing. Imagine, for example, a house with no appliances, no taps, no tiles or, more importantly, not bricks or cement. The companies linked to all these activities are feeling the effects of this break real estate.
So as some real estate directly gafadas, what they do is change their name, such as the esperpento of Astroc to be called Affirms Real Estate Group.
As you can see, the prevailing feeling out there is very negative and nerves are the flowers of skin, just like any rumor to sink a company. Undoubtedly, the psychologists will have to work hard these days. Will be moved to markets that there is a feeling on the street? Is it really all right?
Update: Interesting post Gurusblog entitled "Advance Results Income Corporation" I hit a piece.
The fact is that the company has announced that the company will close the year with sales of between 515 and 530 million euros. So much for all normal, but if we look a little we see that the company closed in September with revenues of 500 million. Ie in the months of October, November and December revenue from the company! 15 and 30 million euros!. That is to last to join more than 150 million per quarter to 15-30 million euros. The fall is just brutal. The truth is that the last time I saw something similar, was in an Argentine subsidiary of a company where she worked during the famous playpen, where sales fell suddenly between 70% -80%.
Update: Interesting comparison of Investment Funds
Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 9, 2008 with 220 comments
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Today is the day of return to school for many and the return to work for a few among whom I include myself, no doubt this morning I went through your head do what he did a boy in Mexico who are hooked to bed to avoid having to return to the "cole"
Returning to the stark reality, in this year of economic uncertainty it is possible that we find ourselves with a few surprises and much of the script is written. Nor does mention the lack of the real estate crisis from which so much has been said that today without going further has touched Equities Corporation which has launched a "Profit Warning" that comes with being a "hey, we're going to win less than what we said, "and this has sunk in the market and is not the only sector as the real estate lost 9,000 million on the Stock Exchange in two weeks.
In the early sessions of the year the red numbers have become the norm. Equities Corporation (-25.6%), Astroc (-22.2%), Montebalito (-14.7%), Martins-Fadesa (-14.4%), Inmobiliaria Colonial (-19.15%) and Aisa (-18.8%) Have suffered the greatest varapalos. A saleswoman of the anger that only have been saved REYAL Urbis (+0.21%), Metrovacesa (+0.24%) and Cleopa (+0.47%) with outbursts of flat years. In total in the first four sessions of 2008 the real estate lost 1,800 million euros in capitalization, a figure which rises to 9140 million in two weeks, more than one third of the market value they had last Dec. 14.
Returning to the surprises in Cotizalia have done a year trying to find the 20 economic surprises (negative) in 2008, of which I "cutandpaste" given my little wins to work today:
1. The real estate depression of 2007 becomes downturn in private consumption in 2008.
2. Corporate profits fall by 10%.
3. The S & P500 index depreciating by between 5% and 10%.
4. The volatility spike further. Movements of plus or minus 1% -2% become in our daily bread.
5. The Federal Reserve lower rates, 0.25%, in each of its meetings in 2008.
6. Slows down the growth of the economies of Western Europe.
7. The Chinese stock market returns to double.
8. The resurgent Japanese stock market from its ashes.
9. Accelerating the real estate debacle. There are high-profile bankruptcies like that of Countrywide Financial, Blazer Homes, Hovnanian, Standard Pacific, WCI Communities and Radian Group.
10. Financial shares were not recovered.
11. Research in Motion, Apple and Google are seeing their shares to bend and fall in values of a bubble.
12. Merging Yahoo and eBay. So do Amazon and Overstock.com
13. General Electric sold NBC Universal to Time Warner which, in turn, transmits or neither makes a spin-off from American Online.
14. The dollar depreciating a further 10% while gold reached a thousand dollars per ounce.
15. The price of crude oil reaches 135 U.S. dollars per barrel.
16. Cyberterrorism put in check the safety of one of the leading governments worldwide. The financial markets are exposed to the actions of hackers.
17. Accelerates disintermediation in the business of hedge funds. Continúa la salida de dinero de los fondos.
18. It happens several scandals to Enron.
19. Democrats Clinton / Kerrey Republicans McCain / Crist candidates are elected to the presidential elections on Nov. 4. The Democrats come to the White House.
20. The American politicians put a stop to the sovereign funds.
As you can see, in general, there was not much optimism. Is it because they say that leap years bring bad luck?
Update: What exactly the liquidity crisis? I think we have a good answer in "The personal diary of a real estate agent" in summary:
"Today, the same bank a year ago called to offer mortgages now are never to address, and do not give mortgages to developers to build and advise their clients not to buy because the floors are going to continue to fall. Both ¿has changed everything for which the banks say today where yesterday decian black white? The price of money, about 4%, is not expensive, so expensive is that these gentlemen of the banks will grant a decent mortgage. Instead of differential or lower its selling margins, the rise at the same pace as the requirements for the granting of credit. They gave us wings and now they tell us we can not fly, which make clear who is in charge in this country. My company still has customers willing to borrow, so the demand is there, just missing someone willing to finance these operations. "
Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 8, 2008 with 176 comments
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Very often (if not always) what we complain of "thieves" who are the banks given that human tendency to shift the blame to others and not realize our mistakes, but the fact is that a saving of 46.8% is on unpaid accounts, this means that almost half of the interests of our savings are being carried on the bank due to our laziness or misinformation.
Meanwhile, we have to our friend Euribor continues retreating towards the 4.60% despite warnings from Trichet against inflation. Every day he understands less and shows that make a prediction on its value at the end of the year it's really just an exercise in science fiction.
Today I learned a new word for our dictionary "pedantic-economic" and is "Agflación," so we can read it in the peculiar cotizalia that tells us that the 'agflación' puts on the ropes to central banks
In the last months of 2007, many international media wrote about the agflación, a term referring to the huge increase in the prices of raw materials such as corn, soybeans or wheat, which in turn makes other foods such as eggs, meat or dairy products.
You know, a new term to use in your conversations bar 
And with this dismissal me on my last day of vacation, so starting tomorrow everything will return to normal.
Good rebates to all!
Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 7, 2008 with 68 comments
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The truth is that if we look at the macroeconomic figures, the situation is to go to mourn, unemployment on the one hand, inflation on the other hand, rising rates, and so on. But between this Maremagnun of negative numbers, I am surprised to read the following news: Two people served after staying trapped in the 'parking' La Vaguada. The collapse in question was caused by the withholding of more than 3 hours in the mall parking lot. And it's something that we all, shopping centers and burst customers pulling credit card or debit, which, regardless of when it is paid and unpaid, the fact is that trade and consumption, for the moment, it seems in good health.
And this despite the fact that prices go up as nice, not least today, watching the news program of "Four" commented that the rise in milk attributed to the 4 factors: China, Oil, Climate Change and Biofuels. That is, the Climate change is one of those responsible for the skyrocketing prices. Seeing is believing. How easy it is to be a victim and difficult to be guilty ...
To which, returning to the wildness in consumption, I wonder why? Is it that people do not know that world lives or is that people have a lot of money? Will it be that we still have a lot of money under the mattress?.
Updated with the most interesting news of the day:
Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 3, 2008 with 380 reviews
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And I do not speak for my neighbor, if not that of oil as well as anything that gets $ 100 a barrel, which is a good hit of noses to the economy. Recall that the crude has never reached that price. As is always looking for an excuse to get it, in this case was found in Algeria violence in Nigeria but in the background is an excuse, the reality is possibly speculation and the weak dollar. What worrying of all, it took quite some time with a very expensive oil, the good thing is that for the moment we are surviving and perhaps begin to think about investing in alternative energy, sustainable and profitable.
Of course, this has not sat well with all the bags that have closed in red numbers dropping more than 1%. Without a doubt movidito beginning of the year. But do not worry, you'll really bad that it paseis, the worse it is going Prtillo Luis, that sum payment orders by 43.4 million in derivatives by the collapse of Colonial, this guy if you're sobreenedeudado.
Updates:
Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 2, 2008 with 179 comments
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