Indians in the EDF

During World War II, one of the main concerns of the opposing sides was security in their communications from there to be intensely developed the science of cryptography to hide information and cryptanalysis to decipher the enemy. But to get some data indecipherable no need to be a John von Neumann, simply used as messengers to natives of one of the most difficult languages to speak and probably incomprehensible for any translator of the enemy and this was the role of the Navajo Indians at that war. Curiously, among the languages designed to convey these messages was the Basque but was scrapped because the Basque colony in Japan was too broad to arriesgarse.Como of a world war if it were, each meeting of central bank communicates in a language that none of the rest of mortals we speak, but fortunately for their deeds we know them and what they did yesterday, the EDF (lower rates 50 basis points, after having dropped 75 last week) as we say in Euskera, or Navajo Waiting, it means something and that is that the recession is knocking on the door and every time we have fewer laying locks that not to get.

According to the Fed, "today's action, combined with those made earlier, should help achieve a lasting and moderating growth and mitigate the risks on economic activity. However, the risk remains low and the central bank will continue to act to contain the effects of the current financial crisis. "

The most immediate reaction has been a drop in the dollar that leaves us with a more Euro fuertote every day and close to the psychological change of 1 Euro = 1 dollar and a half.

Let's see how they can contend that falling rates and rising dollar with a controlling inflation. I hope they go better than Spain and that the harmonized CPI rises a tenth in January to 4.4%. Unable to get even more pessimistic, but that is absurd and you know that inflation is the tax on the poor.

As for the news "bubble" of the day we have to 'Salamanca Class': Flats of promoting more expensive in Spain are sold at the price of work. It appears that there is little demand for flats of 6 million Euros ...

Total that if someone is going to benefit from the current economic situation, probably are the owners of petrodollars are being lined and now come to the rescue of troubled companies. Such is the case of Investment Corporation of Dubai (ICD) is considering launching a takeover bid on Colonial.

Update: The Euribor closed January with an average of 4498%

Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 31, 2008 with 322 reviews
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Spain grows

Update: The FED cuts interest rates 50 basis points to 3%. The bags reacted to the hike and then finish in the red. I do not hear about anything ...

Leo amazed and a rompemitos is that the average height of the Spaniards has increased in recent years to spread to most Europeans. Now we measure averaged 1.77 inches for men and 1.64 for women. We still have a lot to reach the Tutsis who are, of the human race higher, but we have a good rhythm, just take a look at the movies 30 years ago and see how our stars were Alfredo Landa and Fernando Estes .

But come the spoilers of the IMF and tell us they foresee that grow at slower pace in the last 5 years.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has cut its forecasts for world economic growth by "tension" and "uncertainty" that sticking to the financial markets. The organization has reduced its forecasts for U.S. and Europe to locate the progress of their economies at 1.5% and 1.6% respectively. The IMF believes that the emerging so far have resisted, and that China has not wavered.

Given these data suggest that recession (negative GDP growth), in The Economist are wondering again how we can avoid a recession? Back where they always look to the FED will meet today to see it done with rate cuts after the by surprise so brutal it made last week. The question is not whether or not it will go down, if not how much the drop, initially had hoped and wished that were 50 basis points but more and more voices who believe in 25 points and left and an ace up its sleeve for when you have that return to kneel before the bags.

The truth is that this is a picture far less curious as recession, but there have not been starting to feel and this is true, we look at the numbers and are all positive sign, as discussed in the previous link: What is is perceived to be more aware of the value of money, it is cutting some other costs that are redundant or what it looks cheap. A clear example of what we see in the new houses takes up to three years to sell.

We can not talk about mild slowdown, what is happening in the sector is a sharp fall in any rule, "said the chief executive of the consulting and marketing group i, Ignacio Pinda.

Therefore, today at 20:15 will have to stop watching TV to tune to the EDF and see he does with interest rates.

Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 30, 2008 with 333 comments
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The meaning of life

The Duhkha is a term busdista quite difficult to explain because it has a very wide meaning. An example to illustrate what could and I gave the same Buddha is to be with someone you do not like and not-being with someone you like. What we in the West as we tried to translate dissatisfaction. One of the several types of produce per Duhkha example is the question the meaning of life.

That same Dunkha sorry to wonder about the current economic situation, and as human beings when they are afraid often pray or ask for help to further the exchanges do the same thing, but speaking to the gods of central banks. In this case, the prayers at the messiah and savior Bernanke Trichet come to say that if we lower interest rates, we behave, not like last time.

And that is what is happening these days in the bags, but the thing remains the same prayers asking that the FED lower rates 50 basis points more when there is faith and the rest does not matter.

Although the European friend we have lost and a little obsessed, something which his apostle Blanchflower of the Bank of England says in "worrying about inflation now is like playing while Rome burns." This is what he says in his epistle:

"The Bank of England to cut interest rates or will see the UK economy continues to the U.S. on its way down, said today in a British newspaper in an interview. "Concerned about inflation right now is like a play while Rome burns."

But the situation remains the same fund, for example in Spain we have to cost mortgages rose 1.9% and the number of homes fell by 14.9% and this indicates, without doubt, a cooling of the engine of our economy. Hence, when things get bad we must turn to the imagination and how best to sell a minipiso to give a Mini for just one euro more.

Fortunately we continue in times of Sale and that is where it has not yet reached the crisis.

Although the word crisis is on everyone's lips, dealers say that these discounts are functioning as those of previous years and consumer associations certify that people are spending as planned. The expectations of the sector stood at EUR 141 average expenditure per person and a sales growth of between 4% and 5%. Traders argue that they have not only been fulfilled, but that could have been overcome.

If in the end, to buy what we are putting so easy that even a woman could apply for a murderer to pay via a web page. If that is not consumed is because they do not want to and not because they can not.

Update: Since starting the means to hurry to publish the data in the Euribor January (when still missing 3 days to know the final figure). Now it's up to the Country with this news: The Euribor closed the month of January with the largest drop in six years

Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 29, 2008 with 197 reviews
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Kingda Ka

Kingda Ka is the name of the highest roller coaster in the world and rapidly above 200 km / h and measured 132 meters high, could see it run on this video.

The history of roller coasters is quite wide, starting with the slides in Russia where sleds slide. LaMarcus Adna Thompson patented the first roller coaster on January 20, 1885 and was the Great Depression with the stock crash of 29 which ended its golden age.

Currently, we are living through another roller coaster, much greater speed, altitude, in particular the stock market today, almost Low Spanish low 300 points in less than half an hour, so if you dizzy and not giving the Kingda Ka. The causes are found and where ever this time included a scapegoat, the poor Jérome Kerviel who is on the dole and looking for work. The truth is that I love the theories conspiranoícas and has all the look that you are carrying the dead of a few bad results.

As for the word that no economy wants to talk about it, we found an interesting article Titles stagflation in Spain? The economy will stagnate and inflation will decline.

The answer to the question of whether Spain could face a stagflation seems clear to some experts. "Radically not," says Jose Carlos Diez, chief economist of Intermoney. "The gasoline is already falling and inflation will end the year below 3% in interannual rate. Within a month no longer be news. Now we must focus on the global financial crisis, the residential setting, employment and economic activity. The problems of inflation are past, "he argues.

We are in Spain we complain that we do not create companies with international ambitions, fortunately we have any exception as is the Spanish Tabacalera and ABC reminds us in his article. A history of success and value creation.

Only by going back to 1996 found a strain of pure Spanish company, Tabacalera SA, whose value on the Stock Exchange reached 1.200 billion euros. (...)
Ten years later, Altadis had become a multinational company, based in Spain, world market leader for pure, the European leader in distribution of snuff and a major player in the market for cigarettes. Its value today reaches 12,600 million.

If you are going to be true that the Spaniards when we get down to serious work we are doing well. Pity that we do so little. Meanwhile we see as Almunia will lower the growth forecast for Spain to 2.6%. Vigilant because this is a point less than the original forecast of the government.

Apretaros belts, because the week seems to vertigo.

Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 28, 2008 with 259 comments
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The big blow

Whenever there is a great robbery, he was often called by the robbery of the century but what is really the biggest blow in history?. In "The Corner" we make a list of the 10 largest thefts in history.

• Central Bank of Iraq, Iraq (2003): One Billion dollars.
• Kent Securitas Depot, United Kingdom (2006): 92.5 million.
• Lufthansa, USA (1978): 6 million.
• Dunbar Armored, USA (1997): 19 million.
• Matt Brinks warehouse, UK (1983): 45 million.
• Northern Bank, UK (2004): 60 million.
• Central Bank, Brazil (2005): 70 million.
• The Great Train Robbery, UK (1963): 74 million.
• The Security Deposit Knightsbridge, UK (1987): 111 million.
• The Museum of Boston, USA (1990): 300 million in artworks.

On the other hand, we could create a list of major gaffe, those who lose a lot of pasta but not for the benefit that commits. So far was led by Nick Leeson, whose success led to the bankrupt Barings Bank by an English bank founded in 1762. This is what made the figure as we regard this website.

On July 17 of 1992 appears to have begun the beginning of the end of the illustrious institution founded in 1762 by Sir Francis Baring, whose ultimate descendant, Peter Baring, was consoled by now in bankruptcy and ridiculed listening operas in its spacious mansion in rural Wiltshire . That day, to conceal the loss of 20,000 pounds sterling in a bad investment made by one of his employees, Nick Leeson opened a secret account (the baptise "of errors"), which numbered five-eights, because 8 is The number of luck for the Chinese.

The broad outlines of what happened are clarísimas: to hide his losses, which recorded 88,888 in the account, Leeson love reports to their heads, while increasing investment (at future) with the expectation of a hike it Compensation of losses and leave benefits.
It was a dangerous gamble: after three years when there were slight rises and falls in the shares of minced, Nick Leeson had lost about 1,500 million dollars. The financial hole erupted to light on February 27 1995, and broke the bank and volatilize savings of thousands of professors, teachers, military personnel and retirees who had bought bonds of Barings confident in the soundness of the bank and conservative image

As you have seen, the ego of a person led to bankruptcy a bank that survived two world wars and a multitude of crises.

But as history is very bloody and tends to be repeated this time the protagonist is named Jérôme Kerviel, worked for Societe Generale and the hole it has left is almost 5,000 million Euros. I would love to interview, but I am afraid we must go to Caipirinha in Brazil taking our health. Tells his story in the El Pais article titled "Ruined by an employee"

This employee of French bank Societe Generale has succeeded him alone produce a loss of 4,900 million euros in the bank, one of the largest in Europe and with a pedigree that goes back to the Second Empire. Although there are not many details on how to get such a huge amount of losses, it is likely that the parallel societies and for fraudulently concealing that mounted substantial fictitious transactions, would be wiped out by the catastrophic collapse of the stock exchanges on Monday. From what little is known of the gigantic fraud it appeared that Kerviel acted alone and that it "has not benefited" from the fraudulent organized from his position as operator of the market in Paris.

Normal behavior of the man charged with only 100,000 euros per year, according to the chairman of the bank "still has not recovered his 2007 bonus, but I doubt that demands it."

Posts to find reasons to explain what happened on Monday, many found in these operations, but the fact is that the stock crash had been brewing since late December, however, given the volume we are talking about, something surely influenced.

And the questions are obvious: How can a single person could disappoint some 5,000 billion euros a third bank of France? What control mechanisms failed to detect deception is not an employee of Société Générale?

Today legged putting other less dramatic but just as final for the employee: "The revenge of Antonio jackass Caracul: fired the employee who sent him a bill with that name"

In terms of economic news are still obsessed with the stock market, which lowered if historic, if that historic ascent, which if all goes well, that if the world is running out ... I think these are, without doubt, the symptoms of a complete ignorance of what happens in the market. And I say this with no disrespect, you just assume that nobody has any idea what is happening or what will happen.

If we look locally, we see that unemployment increased by 117,000 people in 2007 and the unemployment rate stands at 8.6% the highest since the first quarter of 2006. Therefore we have runaway inflation and unemployment rising. Bad picture for anyone who wins the elections in March ...

Good weekend to all!

Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 25, 2008 with 412 comments
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Stress Training

Interestingly the Nintendo strategy consisting of bringing the world of video games to an audience that would never have thought about getting into it. Successes such as "Brain Training" and "More Brain Training" has enabled users from more than 40 years in order to enter the entertainment industry of the twenty-first century.

I am thinking more than 3 games could be sold as donuts these days, would be "Stress Training," "More Stress Training" and "More Stress Training" because as the markets are, the best thing is beating very carefully and let go always for the reason, if they exist at some point.

Expanding yesterday wrote an interesting article titled " 'Brain Training' in the bags" that we talked about the Neuroeconomics, the application to the economy on how the human brain. Ya see, that the economy is not just numbers. And give us some advice.

What is the golden rule to survive in the stock markets? "We have to learn to handle the emotions if you want to be a good player bag."
Therefore, the profile of the investor is sure: a person who has time to analyze the evolution of values, information is available, handling their emotions and to buy when everybody is scared. "As in the pocker in the bag you have to be cold and calculating."

So if you've got no time, no information or manage your emotions, you know, better not get into the stock market.

Today, emotions are euphoric, and it seems that you may rightly so. To understand why, we need to learn a new word, which seems like a nice Gremlin but has the same danger that a Gremlin at midnight, the Monoline and we counted yesterday in cotizalia in his article entitled mortgages subprime have successor The danger now comes from insurers' Monoline '.

Although the capital of these companies is small in respect of the whole industry, its strategic importance is derived from operations that have ensured worth billions of dollars without sufficient capital to deal with potential defaults by its customers, mainly issuers of corporate bonds. Despite this, they have obtained the famous triple-A by the rating agencies, allowing them to expand their business. At least until last Friday, when its business began to look very closely by Wall Street.

Say, that a lot of confidence in our financial system was based on a foundation not too strong.

Fortunately, we got up today with this headline: Met the script: the rescue of the 'Monoline' triggers global stock markets. There is nothing like the problem to find a solution, if only momentary.

As for Europe, yesterday met the words of Trichet and his fixation on inflation. We must recognize that you have what it takes, we do not know if he will be doing good or bad but at least they are showing independent markets, in contrast to the other side of the pond. As they say in these cases, time will remove him or why.

Finally, interesting to see the piece of goal that you have got to Societe Generale who discovered last weekend that an operator of stock exchange in Paris had embarked on a secret positions that will cost the bank millions of euros 4900. That is a blow and not that of Dioni.

Written by Carlos Lopez on Jan. 24, 2008 with 314 reviews
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