Striving to the limit.

Well, it seems that I am the most early today.

I think the answer to the questions posed in both cases is yes, SI, has been "taking little account" for savers and SI, is encouraged more consumption than saving ...

We'll see how far the blood ... From my position relatively quiet (although not as much as those who are not mortgaged) we'll see what happens. For everybody's sake we hope that the Euribor is preparing a "truce" and not continue to rise at this rate.

A greeting to all

Good morning, everyone,
I can not begin today without applauding the end of the forum yesterday, Fantastic!, And a special mention to Noys, who is a woman, although it appears the nick of 'boy'.

Returning to this I will say that the controversy is served ... and doubt, and bewilderment and confusion, ...

The ceiling of soportación is more than questionable.

- What is really unbearable to keep rates around 4% so long ... and now with a simple increase in quarter-point is the cry in heaven.

- What is really unbearable to come out now OCU 'warning' to the more normal it could happen. Now?.

- What is really unbearable is not to warn BEFORE, and their hands Wash of what could come.

- What is really unbearable is that the OCU us a lime and sand, and to continue breast. And so cool!.

portalc

Well ...
I do not wish every recession, but I understand that is something we have to go. The excesses are paid (I think). And most economically.
How is the issue, the question remains for me to know why interest rates converge in the short term (less than 1 year) as of 1 year. That graphic that unite, not what I see and understand.
What's illuminates a little bit this item?.

Finally, clopez, you know that returns to the Internal Server Error (was the first time in my case since the change).

A saludete.

We continue watching episodes of a dash by now written, nothing new yet. The question that is offered to the top is a little bare CLopez, most believe that there is a crisis, whether the issue would affect Europe, both to spain, if you will be fleeting or lasting, and the depth that can take this script is ... a final, even for writing, maybe we'll see from here to 24 months ... I am still optimistic about Europe ... we will see.

Following on from what you say, carioca, if you look at numbers: growth at 4% to 8% unemployment, inflation at 2% .... There is really a crisis?
Is that nobody remembers who is really a crisis? With unemployment at 25%, rampant inflation, the peseta devalued every two of three? I did, not so long ago. Early 90s. Spain.

What I wonder is whether at this time of hiperinformacion, in which every minute we have one hundred new news to anything is called crisis?
See the owner of El Mundo this summer in the middle of my vacation: Crack world in the bag!
We buy scared, I thought that was the crisis of 29! And where is the crack?
Not went after people?

Yesterday my brother and I were about to make a small bet that consisted of a dinner. He, who works in a bank-insurance company, said that the Euribor be below the 4.69 on Jan. 1, 2008, and I said to be above the 4.79 yesterday. He completely sure of his bet, based on what economists thought of your company (who think it will keep or drop in the following months) and I relied on the rise in the price of money is expected for September. In the end, the bet was nothing, because for me it was a dilemma for a party that want subiese Euribor to win the bet to my brother, but want to pay less for mortgage down. What do you think, that he had won or that I had won?

On the other hand, I do think we are now entering into a crisis, although I do not know how deep, perhaps slightly affect the construction and perhaps something more global. Yesterday the IBEX35 lost, and although it is early to say how will the meeting, in the early hours bags from Germany and France are slight losses. Anyway, as carioca, the screenplay of all this is for writing, and if something good and interesting about this economy is that nobody knows exactly what will happen in six months. Because that would be capable of knowing, would be laminated.

Finally, you have to think that this crisis can have a positive effect, beyond the cleaning of the system of "trash" (and I do not mean to people but to financial products), which is that banks seem very reluctant to lend money , And that may help reduce inflation, which is ultimately what you're looking for the ECB to increase rates. In other words, this crisis may save us several months or postpone the quarterly increases.

M Well, today David Cano in El Pais discovers something that I did not know ... that the Euribor has roof!

David Cano, Financial Analysts, predicts future increases, which will traverse the ceiling of 5%. "At that rate is the marginal lending facility, which is a kind of window of emergency in which the European Central Bank lends money to entities that need it urgently. Therefore, it is logical that the 5% serving as the roof of the Euribor, because at that price the entities are always going to be able to get funding, "explains

http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/anuncio/subida/tipos/dispara/Euribor/maximo/ultimos/anos/elpepueco/20070824elpepieco_2/Tes

Hey guys,

Although it is not related to today's topic in particular these days and root of the famous shots of the ECB and the Fed, I have a doubt emerged.

Does the money they inject the "market" the ECB and the Fed where it comes from? Is the money from its reserves to lend it to banks to have greater liquidity in the market?

It goes without saying that I am a little understood in economic and financial issues ... so I do not fusiléis by asking the question

A greeting and thanks.

# 5, mario, I agree with you, nuance, although not in crisis, but the markets always anticipate them with at least 12 months, if the markets did not come out of this soon and it seems that they will not really begin to see how the data are becoming worse, the U.S. will increase unemployment and lower GDP, inflation is not so clear, it is much more complex, but could rise if the FED lower rates to camp on time.

# 3 shows chechuch The curve that literally the interbank market expects the price of money is the same within 3 months within 12. You can interpret or that the Euribor was calm in the medium term or who expect a rise of 0.5% in September instead of 0.25 "announced". What I believe is that when the ECB will hike just 0.25 in September, the securities short, down, it all depends on Trichet's words, until then the curves can be anomalous.

http://www.bof.fi/Stats/default.aspx?r=/tilastot/markkina-_ja_hallinnolliset_korot/euriborkorot_pv_chrt_en

I am concerned about the results achieved so far in the surveys.
121 opinion that go into crisis and 21 say no.
I know the question is a little bare, but I simply want to see that there is confidence in the economy, and when I see pesismismo.

chechuch I think that the convergence rate is due to the fear that banks have to lend among themselves.
Yesterday, the ECB bag auction to 40,000 million Euros for 3 months and there were no fewer than 125,700 requests for millions of Euros. The initial interest rate of the auction was 4.49% and the average rate at which lent the 40,000 kilillos was 4.61%. But the most striking theme is that the bids were at 5.0%, when the beloved 3-month Euribor yesterday was 4711%.
What this means someone willing to pay a rate to 3 months to 5% if the banks do to 4711%?. So simple, that banks do not lend themselves or between them.

Hey Marie, the truth is that I had no idea, although it sounds strange thing, as in 2000 (if I'm going for dates), there was a Euribor above 5%. I imagine that this rate of "emergency" can be lifted, if the ECB wants to limit the fluid that banks manage.

Vic, where it is not leaving, but I guess * * than simply "print it." Ie that generate it from nothing. It is bad for inflation because if the ECB generates money, the currency was devalued and we have to pay more euros to buy a product because the product retains the value but the money has gone down in price. It should be borne in mind that these injections are very short-term, and that money banks have to return it. I think the issue is out there, but I'm only an amateur for three to four. There are others around here surely you can give a better explanation.

In line with the theme of today.
Yesterday, the BOJ left rates at 0.5% and has to withdraw 1,900 million euros for excess liquidity in the system, a result of the item -> the Nikkei leaves behind four days of consecutive rises and loses the dots that had 16,300.
On the other hand, the most relevant news that comes from Asia comes from the Bank of China, which has acknowledged this morning that its exposure to the hazards of sub-prime mortgages is higher than expected. The entity has reported that its investment in these loans amounted to 9,500 million dollars.
How that there is no immediate prospect of crisis?

that by reverting to comment on post 11.
S that pujaron to 5% than they did not because the upper range at which the ECB is providing funds to 5%, but because I am not surprised it had reached 6%

Willy, I think that's why the Euribor is rising so quickly, and if so, I think that raising the minimum rates is still a danger. While the ECB will see what he does: ^ P

As curiosity beyond all this, a link:

http://www.microsiervos.com/archivo/ciencia/subasta-billete-20-dolares.html

Clopez, I confess that I do not think it'll go into crisis, despite the above, but clear, with the idea that I think it's likely that I am wrong, so ...

Not as strange that you have so many people believed that going to have difficulty, but you know that this forum is? Except me and a few who believe that things go well and very badly for a few, all is gloom ... have when clopez inject a little joy into your body. Give us good news for economy, some positive and not all are on disgraces ... that these bitter morning at many of your readers. There are days that I think even the garbage of Attila. Euribor not seen it and not stop to fuck ... but I'm sure that down ...

M., you know what the best Sept. 6.

Clópez, please, the question that you are responding really want to see if there is crisis in Spain. Right now, with little follow now, I see only a high rate of delinquencies and people being dismissed in the U.S., Spain, as in Europe, there are only concerned about what might make the U.S. stock market. On the other hand, I have not yet read this press release September 2006 by these individuals (talking about general data, not by district. Ojo, I do not want to say that is NOT going to give):

The price of housing used in the U.S. fell for the first time in eleven years.
http://www.elconfidencial.com/economia/noticia.asp?id=6194&edicion=26/09/2006&pass =

Good morning everyone:
Carioca, if it is interpreted that can rise half a percentage point in September, if the Euribor already discounted these increases, what does it mean Euribor could be placed in the 5.1 - 5.2 d in September about to end? That asustaría if a bit ... or on the contrary is relajaría the market and would not have much dierencia between Euribor and type?.
A greeting

Enculator (which often nick, buddy:) I'm optimistic, what happens is that I do not know my desire to distinguish my intuitions (that the instincts tell me of economic affairs of those who have no idea, have noses) .

I think the subprime crisis is not as big as it sounds, and that there is not much tension by what has happened but it may come to light, I do not think it is both. With regard to the Euribor, I already said that I do not think it rises above 5.5%. But of course, one does not know whether they are ideas or reflections of their own desires: ^)

Gilberto is not whether the data from PMI Europe this month are somewhat influenced by the issue of USA but ...
Progress of the PMI surveys in the euro area
Euro zone services PMI in August: 58 points from the previous 58.3 (worse)
Euro zone manufacturing PMI in August: 54.2 points from 54.9 the previous (worst)

It is not much difference but ....

M, thank you very much for your explanation. My first intuition was thinking the same thing, that the ECB simply "print" money, but of course, the total money in circulation accounts for the wealth behind.
If wealth is the same, but "do" more money is that this money "worth less." The currency is devalued and inflation there. As the ECB's policy is to "control inflation at all costs" I sounded a little weird.

Hence, I would suggest that the ECB can do is what we bring to light (give) money to take reservations.

In the absence of anyone else I confirm this, I rely on your opinion.

Thank you very much.

In the last message from yesterday, perhaps because no one saw him, Gilberto left this very interesting link;
http://www.inverforo.com/precio-vivienda

At the bottom you can see the evolution of house prices in percentages for several years.

I was surprised. I expected many hikes in two digit figures and is not well. There are many years that the rise is small 3-5%

On the other hand in the red graph shows that in recent years it has grown more rapidly in the price of housing, but at the same pace as in a previous period. Thus seen the rise of housing does not seem so much less dizzying and even gives the impression that progress could continue at the same pace (just the low wages that have not segudio far from inflation, what would prevent)

What I am raising is, if the housing has been a refuge for money of the families into something solid, tangible and understandable to the layman in economics, to combat the depreciation of the currency, ie inflation, but these increases have not been as high as inflation, do you really have impoverished families who have agreed to own a home? And if you were poor, who happened to those that do not even have done so, have they been "miserabilizado" completely?

In a surprise every day economy, which has more of witchcraft science.

A greeting to all.

For the # 7 of my namesake.

Watch the supplement to the 2006 http://www.elmundo.es/suplementos/suvivienda/2006/460/1160085608.html

and see what the big Analisto said David Cano
Esa gran novedad del Banco Central Europeo que es preparar el mercado anticipando lo que va a venir se ha traducido a la postre en que no haya mucha volatilidad de los tipos», apunta David Cano. En cuanto a las subidas del Euribor, «se puede decir que estamos tocando techo», añade.

And now jumps with a gilipollez 5%, ha ha ha ha ha forgive me laugh.
The past 25 years in Germany, the average rate was 6%
and this figure will more than overcome.
Always giving false hope.

Vic kilitos the sack that the ECB had reservations to the market yesterday, gave no more bologna.

I do not say that there will be no crisis. If there will be crisis, or a "Cambo-cycle" as we wish to call. Okay we are at the end of a cycle and that will come tiempor worst, but the crisis has not yet begun.
There are many signs, and bag them to us anticipating this. The trouble is ahead.
What I am saying is that it is a bit exaggerated to talk of "crack in global stock markets", or that we are in crisis when the economy grows at 4%.

YM, I, too, it'll be David Cano. Everyone cattle brains with the Euribor and this leaves us with who can not climb more than 5%.

In the bag, such as between banks, we need confidence, as I said. The central banks are and will continue doing what it takes to transmit it. However, as mean, continue in the midst of the hurricane (not just the Dean) in the U.S. and, perhaps, we will have to wait until rates come down there to see if it becomes a mere tropical storm.

On the other hand, remember that Trichet said that he did not believe in a guy neutro, so I do not think either relying on a maximum rate, especially when he says no preset before the meeting what will happen afterwards. In short, when everyone feels and set the tone, once analyzed the data, launches its message by / for the future (usually three months sight). Therefore, that that the Euribor will stop at 5% ... Just tell what macroeconomic factors.

Patita the METI.

In the page on the price of housing, if it rises appear very important, because the indices are semester. In this way the money from the families who bought that house if they might have been well spent. Provided they do not go down the houses, and those who have not invested the money and left him on the bench have been relatively impoverished compared to that if you invested.
If you go down the houses would be much poorer all.

Greetings and forgiveness for the blunder.

For once, fake mario, I agree with you. David Cano'll be this ...

gilberto, lately there are not many good news ... I think when you have one, clopez makes the cover.
I might walk a little pessimistic. it is true that in spain still has not reached more than a "couple of sneezes" (or as they march banking type and the bad behavior of economics). but I see a "pneumonia".
The forecast future (and there my pessimism) is given by the "correctness" in the creation of housing. In Invertia (do not remember the link) forecast a rise in unemployment to 10.2% by the decrease in the construction, estimated at 250,000 dwellings.
low productivity and lack of investment in R & D, does not have a replacement for creation of employment when the motor housing stops (if it has not been stopped). and it is at this moment, when the subprime mortgages that do not exist in spain (120% valuation, disposable income + 35%, 40-50 years) will make a presence in spain.
the result can be unpredictable.
pesimita why I am .... Will I be going?

Ignorant as I do this simple question.

If there is recession, interest rates .. ¿Climb? ... ... Or down?

A reflection of purposely savers.
I think it's a very respectable choice of life for those who want and can save money, which will give you tranquility and security in their lives. What I do not think that is well beyond that, it is intended to achieve additional benefits. I think these are the ones who know they deserve to move the money to achieve profitability. But eye, that I am not referring to the bag, but to those who invest in businesses that generate wealth (tangible and non-speculative).

Come on, I had not noticed me that the image that appears right on my nickname is always the same ...

# 24, Willy

Thank you very much, because it seemed to me that it was a little weird for him to handle and that's it.

It is true that most of the comments may be pessimistic, but is that the halt in the construction sector is clear, and there will be many people who will go to the unemployed. I guess we all know of cases that masons have been working on piece work in new (gaining very well indeed) and which are beginning to take jobs such as "chapucillas" to reform a half bath and kitchen (not as well paid).

On the other hand with the rise in spending on leisure interests will be reduced much that will affect the services sector, another pillar of the Spanish economy. It is true that the hotel owners often complain of vice, but ....

We'll see what happens.

I like cool concepts are manipulated ...

... For the good of all, that the Euribor not go up more ...
... The economic downturn coming ...
... Inflation is low ...

For the good of all?, It will be by some, for which we do not have the floor and climb up the Euribor. The banks are not going to go adrift, is where everything is iran the mortgaged for the last three years, period.

What is a recession?. It has long reached, another thing is that many still do not you have learned. If hundreds of thousands of people still working, they can not access a shelter does this is that we are in times of fat? Does that are lean? When we can not either buy food or clothes?

Until now the only one who has done something to the hope that the price of housing is worthy not disappear altogether, is the rise of the Euribor. It is the only thing we have left.

It's insane, is the world upside down and go around the world like sheep.

Mario seems to me that that the economy grows at 4% is not entirely clear.
Estimates for a few hours:
Morgan Stanley cuts 2007 GDP forecast Germany to 2.4% from 2.6%
Morgan Stanley maintains 2008 GDP forecast to 2.3% in Germany

M, because it's true, neither do I, I had realized what the picture.

Here the only ones that are shared image "seafarers"

Village
"What is a recession?. It has long reached "

A recession is when the economy is not growing or declining, such as Germany after the 11-S. Now the economy is growing at 4%, then there is no recession. That there will be? Maybe.

Carlos Juan, si la vivienda fue comprada como una inversión (se invierte el dinero que no se necesita), olvídate: ganarán, si las cosas salen bien, y perderán, si sale mal. Preocupa el que no haya podido acceder a ella por no tener un sueldo (no hablo de capacidad de ahorro porque es de suponer, si se quiere comprar un piso) o un aval (no necesariamente una persona) con la que poder adquirir una. Conste que, en ciertas zonas de España, sólo veo el alquiler como forma de independizarse. Ya veremos la propuesta del gobierno…

Willy, como dije hace unos días, la Economía europea, tampoco estoy seguro de cómo ha afectado la crisis americana a los mismos, está con signos de desaceleración. Por eso, aunque antes de que todo esto sucediera me decantaba por ver unos tipos al 4,5% en diciembre, ahora mismo, prefiero leer el mensaje de Trichet el 6 de septiembre. Ya no estoy tan seguro, quizás veamos más tiempo el 4,25% entre nosotros.

Hola a todos de nuevo,
En el INE han publicado la última encuesta de ocupación hotelera, la cual ha aumentado con respecto al año anterior, aunque se reduce ligeramente el nº de noches pernoctadas.

Yo creo que es una buena noticia…

http://www.ine.es/daco/daco42/prechote/cth0707.pdf

Willy me refiero a la economia espanola.

Parece que el euribor a un año baja una centésima:

SESION 24/08/2007 11:11

Tipo Medio
Euribor Semana 4,156
Euribor 1 Mes 4,447 (-0.09)
Euribor 2 Meses 4,592
Euribor 3 Meses 4,721 (+0.01)
Euribor 6 Meses 4,757 (+ 0.01)
Euribor 12 Meses 4,78 (-0.01)

http://www.bsmarkets.com/esp/doc/indexns.htm

Enhorabuena a los premiados.

(Las diferencias las he calculado a mano a bote pronto, asi que igual me he ido)

Mario yo miraría más a los alemanes, son ellos los que nos financian, es decir, ellos ahorran y nosotros pedimos prestamos.
Cuando los alemanes no puedan ahorrar y tu vayas al banco a sacar 20.000 € y el cajero te diga, pues va a ser que hoy sólo 1.000 €.
Mañana quizás tenga el resto, ¿que cara pondrás?
¿para que te piensas que son las inyecciones de efectivo de estos días?

#18, optimista contestando a tu pregunta, no creo que el euribor se situe por encima del 4,8 - 4,9 antes de fin de año. Aun hoy es muy atrevido dar valoraciones futuras, mas aun cuando hay volatilidad y el mercado anda revuelto. Yo insisto en que el euribor se relajará en los proximos dias ya la espera de la proxima reunion del BCE. Y si finalmente suben tipos 0,25+ y el mensaje es de vigilancia el euribor se va a relajar bastante, en cambio si habla de fuerte vigilancia, se mantendria sobre el 4,75 - 4,9 hasta la proxima reunion…

Recesion?, no lo creo…
Crisis?, probablemente y no muy profunda.

Greetings.

Chino, con respecto a los periódicos, vende más el titular negativo que el positivo. Sobre Economía, todo lo que sube…, pero, a fecha de hoy, donde veo la bajada es en EEUU. ¿Se puede dar aquí lo que está sucediendo allí? Sí, es probable. Como dije hace varios meses y he repetido ya alguna que otra vez, el dato a seguir es la morosidad.

bueno señores, ya empezamos… con la recesión, la desaceleración etc etc…
para todos los que dice que si la ocu avisa tarde, que si tal o que si cual… hace ya 2-3 años se legisló y se avisó de que se pasasen las hipotecas al tipo fijo, que los tipos de 2% no favorecen nada, la última “desaceleración” también coincidió con el último periodo de subidas de tipos… creo que la gente se acordará
Para todos, trabajo en el departamento de medios de pago de una entidad fuerte (no quiero dar nombres).
Planes de expansiones de empresas “conocidas”
- ING: mantendrá sus tipos en su cuenta naranja al 3% sin subirlo (excepto promociones puntuales) para cobrar una hipoteca en torno al 5%-6%
- BBVA: obtendrá su mayor beneficio si el euribor llega al año que viene al 6%
- La Caixa: Ofrecerá (como viene haciendo desde hace tiempo) productos ligeramente distintos (con alguna pequeña ventaja) pero a un precio mayor (mientras no falten clientes bien que hace, te venden la hipoteca abierta, mejores condiciones que cualquier otra hipoteca pero con un diferencial mayor que cualquier otro banco, si haces TODO con ellos te dejan a euribor + 0,65, al decir todo es tarjeta de crédito + plan de pensiones + seguro de casa + domiciliación de facturas + domiciliación de nómina/s)

tengo conocimiento de algún banco menor (muy pequeño de 10-12 oficinas) pero estos no tienen importancia… (ING es un banco pequeño pero grande mediáticamente, en cuanto a movimiento es un banco menor)

PD: el día 28-29 empezará la que ya he mencionado como operación maquillaje, que algunos optimistas dirán que el euribor ya está bajando y esas cosas… MENTIRA, estarán maquillando el resultado del mes como ya han echo 5-6 meses seguidos, pero en Septiembre volverá a crecer y el día 6 de Septiembre volverá a estar a niveles del 27 de Agosto, acepto apuestas…
un saludo

Estudiante me parece que si el ING que ahora da un 4% y el año que viene lo baja a un 3%, va a tener que cerrar porque aparecerá otro que te dará el 4% y se quedarán sin depósitos.
¿a cuanto pagarán los de ING el dinerito de los depósitos cuando todos sus clientes exijan retirarlos?
porque claro, efectivo no tendrán y si los tipos suben… el que presta pide su %

Carioca, muchas gracias.

Clopez, he pensado en una posible mejora. Como ultimamente hay muchos posts, a lo mejor se podrían poner en sentido inverso, es decir de abajo a arriba según salgan. Lo digo porque es un poco rollo ir hasta abajo para ver los ultimos comentarios.

Un saludo.

Mario:

Ves, otro topicazo, el PIB está al 4%, asi que no hay recesión. Como desde pequeñito te dijeron que sólo si el PIB baja hay recesión pues ¡hala! es un dogma de fe. Además, como a la peña se le repite diariamente los siguientes mantras:

- Subida del PIB- bueno muy bueno pa toos.
- Bajada del PIB- malo mu malo pa toos.

pues nadie lo discute.

La empresa de mi jefe puede ir coxonudamente bien, pero si su éxito se basa entre otras cosas, en mantener unos sueldos que no permiten tener una vida digna, pues a los empleados les va coxonudamente mal.

La empresa puede aportar a que el PIB suba, pero la realidad es que en ese caso concreto, una persona se enriquece mucho, y muchas van tirando, y si la hipoteca sube, pues entran en recesión… pero el PIB sigue subiendo, por que su gasto va a parar a otra empresa con la que sucede los mismito. ¿Fácil no?

¿o es que el % de subida de benefico de la banca (no recuerdo, pero en escasos meses creo que lleva como un 80%) repercute en algún tipo de subida salarial, o incluso prebendas para con los clientes? Noooooo!

¿O es que el crecimiento brutal del, por ejemplo fast food, ha hecho que sus empleado estén bien pagados y valorados?

Podría seguir y seguir, pero por favor, basta ya de índices que no indican nada…

Buenas noticias para los ahorradores…

La crisis forzará a la banca a una intensa guerra de depósitos a la vuelta del verano.
http://www.expansion.com/edicion/exp/mercados/es/desarrollo/1028596.html

Me parece una buena ide la de optimista.

La posible subida ( o no ) me recuerda al chiste en el cual un preso le pregunta a su abogado que “cómo va lo suyo?”, ” si saldrá pronto de la cárcel”. Su abogado le responde que todo va bien; que no se preocupe, que ha hablado con el juez, con los testigos… que todo va perfecto y… cuando se va le dice a su cliente…. “… pero si puedes fúgate”.

Un saludo a todos