Go downhill ...

Siiiiiiii Oh, I am eager to begin to listen to the lectures of economic Attila and his young padowan Luis in the day today, their predictions for the future which chaotic Rasputin, we amaze everyone with his wisdom, his riding crop, prices the floors collapsed, bla bla bla bla and the same story as always.

Well, yesterday shot an expert economist of BBVA futuristic (or was the Santander?) Reaffirmed that there is still no "tangible evidence" that there is a burst of the bubble in Spain ...

And I think that is right, I'm chucked out, and here is not low, or a penny or a home ... for years ...

All these comments appear in Spain in a few years, but not for the moment, as fast as some want.

I would also like to say:

"Joderosss! down that low eh eh "but just in case I will not open his mouth much. As all this benefit to some and not others. Anyway I am glad to say that it is expected to be lower.

Good morning clopez,
very good news today.
at the same thread of ye hit a few comments on the subject from Reuters and are beginning to point to the dreaded 'credit crunch', lease, so the carry trade.
Maintaining the strength of the Yen
During our early morning we have seen the Yen has continued to make progress in the Asian session. The strong batacazo in international financial markets in the day yesterday has been a key element. The carry trade positions that are not only investing in fixed income but also in equities are undoing a steady and this clearly favors the Yen.

Compared to its main crossings as we have seen during the Asian session the Yen has had a strong upward bounce. In our opening in Dollar / Yen 118.50 when it is in our closing yesterday stood at 119.10. The Euro / Yen has had a similar correction after crossed at 163.40 now stands at 162.70.

Attentive to the improvement of the Yen that can generate a lot of tensions in international financial markets. The carry trade has always been a source of liquidity globally and if you close the tap could see greater tensions.
Crash
Among hedge funds is driven a curious statistic. It is the fourth time since 1980 that has seen its sales volume compared with the purchases as large as that of yesterday and today on Wall Street in a very short period of time.

1 - The first time just the day before the crash of 1987.

2 - The second 27 and August 31, 1998.

This time the market and hence did not pass and then went up with violence.

3 - The third on February 27 and March 5, 2007.

Like the previous market stood there, and after one week and began to climb up a lot.

That means that one or two within the next 5 to 10 trading sessions of us fall or God knows where we started a bullish final rally, it seems that there are no half measures.

I will continue to insist that the destination is marked, economically speaking, despite its bad either. The point is, when we talk of crisis, what is the level of it, in order to understand ourselves better.

The "crisis" is to come within three years to come, it will be a strong crisis for the construction industry, real estate, and then everything that it generates or drag with the abrupt fall that will take.

And as always when there is free market, it's simple supply and demand, because the costs have been broadly overstated, then all that remains is down.

With regard to the release of the U.S., is no novelty for me, trying to disguise the crisis exactly the same time that if it had a warning of a bomb in front of the sun, the authorities do not come running to say "there is an evacuation bomb, "is no more to give notice until you know that is untapped, in a few minutes. This is the same, nobody will say that it collapses, it is not appropriate for anyone, or rented, or owners, because the economic blow would be terrible, but it will be amenizado by tourism that has bestial creciemiento in Spain, and how much drops with which it will try to provide.

Greetings and peace in this forum.
Thank you very much

In this country there will be no "crisis" until the minister of economy do so well, but we are reassured to save in an industrialized country and tip technology like ours, there will be nothing that stops us, as a rise Euribor puntito more, here are not saved nor Tato.

A Greeting

to Lola Flores # 1
molaria more you change the nickname and use of lola checks, the character that comes out in the vast overproduction of superlopez.
I have seen and downs (mostly in idealistic). usually 6000-12000 euros but still not sold ... ..
in other areas not looked to see 1 page I have come to see 2-3 with the same filter ... ..
I have no statistics is my impression of what I see.

Unemployment rate in the second quarter in Spain
Data much better than expected. There is a cutback in the number of unemployed by 96,100 people, which brings the unemployment rate to 7.95% levels of the lowest levels since 1978. In the first quarter the unemployment rate stood at 8.47%. The forecasts set out a similar figure.

There is also a strong increase in employment at stable levels of the previous quarter's 3.42%, with an increase in the activity rate up to 58.86%.

Important developments in employment by sector. Accelerates the rate of employment in the service sector up to 4.34% from 3.5% the previous quarter. In the construction is moderating job creation up to 7.62% versus 9.35% earlier. In industry, there is a cut of 1.3% since the rise of 0.25% from the previous quarter.

Good data but requires restraint in its interpretation, data from the second quarter are the highest in the whole year.

Are you have noticed that job creation in the construction passes from 9.35% to 7.62%?

good to think that there comes a breather, with a little luck rates remain at 4 by a long season, and the Euribor relaxes.

... And in line with falls in stock markets, lower our friend to 4526%.
To sweeten a little the average of the month ...

Frankly, I think these employment data are supermanipulados, like all government economic data

The PP makeup but the data is that the disguise gives taste

It's just a personal opinion, of course, but with such data as special unemployment do not mean that the mileurista is so widespread, not only among young people.

Happy summer friends

What does not drop or a hard? Here in Alicante every time the valuations are getting fucked over, and I mean that they are falling. And the prices in general are falling a few thousand pesetas.
The best thing is when you say "It's that I do not want to give my floor, at least I am selling for 25 million pesetas" and tell them how much ... but ... it has cost? "Uy, 3 million pesetas for 10 years"

And the worst thing is that everyone is equal, the final sign to the bottom and reluctantly thinking that you've timado.

So what I will say clearly here, gentlemen ... owners. I am very happy to be having a downturn in housing. And I say health professionals and not four involved. A shot of the BBVA has no idea pajolera. Take the case of what they say in the European and Spanish bank, these people, is precisely the warning that if you have to warn.

and are becoming increasingly strong.

Ah, for that ... I simply do not know if housing does not drop, but neither rises (as happens in other cities) you can not do refinancing or extensions. That will be a major impediment, because the people who have complications will not be able to refinance and sooner or later will have to sell the apartment to settle down for the maximum possible.

And this, as it is a matter of averages, means that some of the fall. Like when we all went up the price of their flats, which automatically raised to the value of yours.

But: If banks do not give money as easily as before ... What is going to raise the price if there is no money to pay for it?
The Euribor, the Euribor, the Euribor ... .. The problem is not the Euribor, is the price of housing. The ESPECTACULAR excess of the price of housing.

10 years ago, a villa from 25 million in alicante looked expensive, and now 65 million is normal. I think that people do not think it will pay 800 Euros per month for 40 years. ¿Owner? I prefer to live in rented and pay 500 E. I laugh from the people who are signing not have anything in a lifetime if or where to buy.

which has fallen by a hundredth is not a happy
That does not note tenths I had to get off even the nearly 3 dots that have risen from 2001 until today
and if there once and for all we can remove the belt
those who pay mortgages

Well, if it has fallen somewhat Euribor. Already it seemed odd that the box with which I signed the mortgage in May I offer a 4.1% fixed for two years ... is something smelled. I do not think this rises much more.

I feel like I enlaonda. I said several days ago that I think our friend Euribor not much upward path. Frankly I think it is going to stay fluctuate in a band between 4.5% and 5% for quite some time, which means that interest rates will remain between 4 and 4.5% in half term. At no time was, nor I agree with that augur well for continued increases in the Euribor rates up 6% to 7% "because on average increased by 0.5% monthly, so we planted in three anita at 7%"

Looking at the history of the Euribor, now has a value similar to that of June 13 (4523).

Greetings to all.

Enlaonda and Frank, it is too early to say who is going to stop, is perhaps the calm before the storm, so do not be surprised that soon hit a good subidón.

Today the European Union, to which Spain belongs, is an economic bloc, is just a group of independent countries, then it is very difficult to think that the interest on mortgages will be as different as the U.S., which is in charge, Think about it.

Greetings.

Before commenting on anything that has a section Invertia very well done on housing that can be viewed at: http://www.invertia.com/vivienda/default.asp

On the other hand, to clear some issues. You can not go from one mode to analyze the reality of passion because we are partisan and prone to confrontation. Right now, all that has happened is that we have been concerned for falls in the stock market in the U.S., which has also affected European stock markets. This event happened in February and the only thing we got was that the Euribor not rise too much. However, the bag was correct and everything will return to "normal" (I mean that the Euribor will continue to rise). We just need to know for how many days were affected by this, but do not worry because he, the Euribor, we will be saying.

Why I know it will be corrected? "[...] The Fed will keep rates unchanged at 5.25% (as everyone expected so far), "unless we see a couple more days like yesterday. If the differentials continue to widen, the Fed will have to act and lower rates. "(Taken from Clópez link.)

Finally, I feel that we have people who have purchased in recent years and has had to be mortgaged by a lot, but no one forced them to sign. If at the time was paid money (in some cases invoking the future because it was not) because it was worth. If it was to live, any price that was paid is adequate, but if you went with the idea of speculating, I can only say that right now is a bad deal. Frankly, I am not very worried at this point because I know what they will do, that is, retain ownership wait for a better time, unless they are overwhelmed with the / s letter / s; also always be the possibility of put it in rent.

The market is being regulated because it can not keep prices that were happening. On the other hand, the government, if you tend to read the news, will enhance young people's access to housing rental system, but will have to wait until autumn to specify the measures being taken.

A greeting and, please, but I know it's difficult, quiet, because what has to happen ...

Looking at where the Euribor at 4.52 this? At the site of the world that the Euribor updated on a daily basis to 4.57 this

European stock markets opened with falls, weighted by the decline in Asia.
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/bolsas/europeas/abren/caidas/lastradas/descenso/asiaticas/elpepueco/20070727elpepueco_6/Tes

Kane, http://www.bsmarkets.com/esp/doc/contents/mainEURIBOR.htm

I would like to explain my point of view on the increases / decreases in price that are discussed.
All the statistics that have a hitch media portals make the kind idealistic, fotocasa, and so on.
As statistic does not have a parallel in reality. Let me explain:
These portals cojen of all the ads that have an average price of m2 and from there go all their reports. I'll give an example:
Notice in my town: Rubí (Barcelona-Catalunya) on this page / tool calling itself the "preciometro":
http://www.expocasa.com/preciometro/081846_Rub. html
According to this page my city is in the 7th place of stocks that have risen in Spain. If you entreteneis to see the different historical reports (see "Summary" box in figure)
You will see the following:
Current price: 3099 € / m2
Does the new work or second hand? Since there is quite a difference ...

Change 2006: 3.07%
quite credible ... applies.

YTD 2007: 12.56%
Umm ... how weird. It has risen more this year (we are in crisis sales) than last year ...

Last 12 months: 0.71%
quite credible ... but something does not fit me!:

Last 30 days: 10.52%
Bravo! I have drawn more than 10% at my house this month in July! (I was naive to believe it, right?)

As you can see the statistics, are just that .. statistics.

It is also true that because of my previous work (real estate adviser) ... I have not sold any floor by about 10% less than last year. What it does is go down the claims of vendors, who continue to inertia:
"If last year I tasaron by € 240,000, now worth 275,000 €"

Response:
"Well, no sir / a, probably today his apartment worth about € 245,000, now if you are trying to sell it at 275,000 € because it is always down in time ... probably go the opposite: that it will exhaust the time and not is little choice but to sell or make a mortgage bridge "

Council who sells:
Download the claims of price today may save you a lot of money (this does not mean that the floors are down, is that you ask too much)

Gilberto does not understand very well the page. I could explain a little?

I look here to say that as this every day. Http://elmundodinero2.elmundo.es/mundodinero/Tipos/historicasTipos50697812_244.html

http://www.expocasa.com/preciometro/081846_Rub. html
I put my last link again.

Hello explained,
If the difference in rates between USA and Europe is of 1.25 points (for USA) and we have the € / $ 1.3646 to now. Hill yesterday to 1.3722
As you can imagine can be put to the € / $ yankis if rates fall (hence the low rate differential) and we climbed.
You know it will happen if it triggers the € / $, because that tinchete to catch what the Germans and the French and he cut the eggs.
Because the only thing they can do is buy gasoline (but only for governments), we do not have such luck, it will say that the barrel up to x dollars, which has not fallen n euros.

If you still have problems with my link:
Entry into
http://www.expocasa.com/preciometro/
and seek Catalunya, Barcelona-Ruby or look down on the No. 7 ranking in stocks climb me more ...

Sorry, what happens is not that link does not come out completely!

Cyrano the problem is the accent.

http://www.expocasa.com/preciometro/081846_Rubi.html

Kane, the fact Euribor you see on the page of "El Mundo", was yesterday, have not yet updated.

Kane, that page is fine, but slow to upgrade. Another which also takes its time, but I like most is ... http://www.hipotecasyeuribor.com/mesactual.php

Regarding your specific question, you must look at the "12 Month Euribor" which is in 4526. This site is updated about 11:15. .-)

Take off the tilde, Cyrano ...

http://www.expocasa.com/preciometro/081846_Rubi.html

Meresulta curious out the data you expose some of the speech is identical. The case is augur the end of the Spanish economy. that laziness ....

I have already commented on other occasions and that is that it confuses the lower floors with a proprietary claim to lower its sales. Cyrano explains it very well, if you sell more of what you buy cheap, then it has fallen, if not rising. The web preciometro and idealistic are mere polls with a margin of error that give a significant amount of housing by 10% or 15% above what they were actually sold. Serve only to see the trend.

"Enlaonda", sorry, that you gave the Fund 4.1% in May, is that I am exploring ...

Graaaaaaacias!
chechuch

Dear holders of a mortgage,
I am very glad of his joy at seeing the Euribor hits a good drop. Rejoiced its economic boom, I recommend that you take advantage of the trend towards lower rates, pay the extra summer, and the wonderful economic forecast predicts that our government, to hire more mortgages and consumer credit. I think now is better now than ever to expand the amount of the mortgage and get a good BMW to demonstrate to those hired envious and poories where the owner might.

Do not be taken by you convince these apocalyptic spoilsport and envious that do not stop posting news on Trichet, IMF, UN, the Financial Times, and other institutions Judeo-Masonic, who just want to disgrace the country, in order to buy a Free floor.

In addition, you should not heed the following items as incendiary, called "A bleak horizon for the mortgage," which states that the Euribor is on vacation, but at the back of these are located near 4.7% :
http://www.elmundo.es/suplementos/suvivienda/2007/502/1185465860.html

Do not let yourselves be intimidated by the loopholes of communism stale in this country, folks. The Euribor not rise, and if so, does not affect us because we will have debts that can not pay, we will have overvalued homes, but we do not need to sell lowered, because we have something more valuable than money and financial knowledge, we OUR COJONAZOS.

Top property!

...

...

No, I'm kidding

Attila: The Euribor is not a good hitting slump, was just being maintained, and would appreciate it if you do not talk so lightly, you have a little respect and no goals at all mortgaged to the same bag.

The government rises to 3.8% GDP growth in 2007.
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/economia/Gobierno/eleva/38/crecimiento/PIB/2007/elpepueco/20070727elpepueco_8/Tes

This ...

Besides asking "enlaonda" where to get a mortgage fixed at 4.1% in May, I would like to know if anyone can comment on any Bank or Fund who is giving much as 6% in mixed or fixed mortgage is an option ... I am raising a mixed because I am of the view that the Euribor this year will reach 5% (and then have to add the differential rotation of each bank or box ...).

A saludete at all ... and Attila, moderate man. If I agree with you too, but moderate a bit:).

chechuch

PS: Congratulations to Probes by the Blog (is it not? :):):)).

One more thing ...

I watch the daily trading in Euribor: http://www.bolsamania.com/cotizaciones/tiposInteresDetalle.php?cod_fininfo=50697812

You know where you can see better?.

Graaaaaaaacias,
chechuch

Thanks Kane and Gilberto! The odd thing is that I've done a copiaypega ...

chechuch to advise you on the Euribor daily
http://www.bsmarkets.com/esp/doc/contents/mainEURIBOR.htm
Updates on 11:15

chechuch for the Euribor daily on-line, with 15 minutes late, and that is not showing the closure
http://www.mercadofinanciero.es/secciones/tablaInfobolsa.jsp?pIdPortal=12&pNumTabla=17

chechuch for the historic Euribor, the better the Bank of Finland.
http://www.bof.fi/Stats/default.aspx?r=/tilastot/markkina-_ja_hallinnolliset_korot/euriborkorot_pv_chrt_en
You can see in the newspaper of 6 months, 6 months.

chechuch for comparative rates of the ECB and Euribor, tambie'n the Bank of Finland.
http://www.bof.fi/Stats/default.aspx?r=/tilastot/markkina-_ja_hallinnolliset_korot/euribor_ekpohj_kk_chrt_en

# 21, Cyrano

"And will have no choice but to sell"
"Council who sells:
Download the claims of price today may save you a lot of money (this does not mean that the floors are down, is that you ask too much) "

Why you can save a lot of money? Is it going to sell but sells it now?
Only for one reason ... that will further lower the prices and terms to sell more later will have to step down. In order suavizais more than mimosin ...

Alquiladoyfeliz,
I think that Cyrano had in mind the famous bridge mortgage (or trick)
With a lack of capital and amortized only interest payments.
You know they are the interests of about 1 year + or - 600,000 to 30 years?
BINGO, some 30,000 €
If casualties now you save € 20,000 € 10,000

It looks like the apocalypse can expect at least the end of my vacation:
http://www.invertia.com/noticias/noticia.asp?idNoticia=1790745

- The Government climbs the 2007 economic growth forecast to 3.8%

- The unemployment falls to 7.95% in the quarter, its lowest level since 1978

- The U.S. GDP grows by 3.4% in the quarter and higher than expected

In this link expand a little information on the topic of the day ...

http://www.cotizalia.com/cache/2007/07/27/60_carry_trade_riesgo_invisible.html

CHECHUCH, because they think that? ... PS: Congratulations to Probes by the Blog (is it not? :):):)).

Jeje ...

I know that!, I have seen so many people who have congratulated you for the work (at least what I read 2 or 3 times that) I thought: "As is this guy").

Na more.

If not you, well, another will be :):):)

A saludete,
chechuch

Here the cutting cod is CLopez. He is who bears the blog, or at least is the one who presents every day items of which we speak and moderates speeches and other things ...

a greeting for you too.

Hey hey hey!
I bring a very nice statistic: I've caught some official data from the price of housing is on the website of the ministry, which are fine for escondiditos that are not much, but here you the links:
Prices in the municipalities over 25,000 inhabitants
http://www.mviv.es/es/xls/estadisticas/APLI/pmf.xls

So, I have been given by the nail excel, to compare the price of the 2nd Quarter of 2006 with the 2nd quarter of 2007, calculating the percentage change, and ascending order. What I got? These beautiful percentage changes in some Spanish cities:
Getafe -33.79
Miranda de Duero -28.99
Oliva -25.69
Takaka -19.56
Antequera -14.5
San Sebastian -14.42
Waitara -14
Vigo -12.46
Ourense -12.17
Ponferrada -11.1
San Fernando -10.7
Ngaruawahia -10.21
Soria -9.6
Torrelavega -8.75
Bilbao -8.18
Tomelloso -8.11
Ciudad Real -7.91
Vilagarcía de Arousa -7.62
Plasencia -7.61
San Roque -6.96
Orihuela -6.89
San Sebastián de los Reyes -6.29
Cuenca -6.23
Segovia -6.18
Estepona -5.95
Benalmádena -5.47
Siero -5.41
Teruel -4.57
Palencia -4.11
Llucmajor -4.06
Alcoi -3.84
Tortosa -3.79
Rubí -3.78
Badalona -3.18
Motril -3.05
Vilanova i la Geltrú -2.8
Torremolinos -1.96
Alicante -1.73
Zamora -1.71
Cerdanyola del Vallès -1.66
Prat de Llobregat (El) -1.62
Cádiz -1.57
Martorell -1.1
Novelda -0.91
Mahón -0.85
San Vicente del Raspeig -0.68
H de Llobregat -0.51
Talavera -0.42
Linares -0.14
Torrejón de Ardoz -0.05

Recordad: la vivienda nunca baja

Veo dolor, mucho dolor…

alquiladoyfeliz, Willy ha respondido por mí.
Lo que pasa es que la gente que no domina el tema de las hip.puente lo ven como una solución a si no venden, cuando en realidad es una trampa como muy bien dice Willy.
Además se tiene que añadir los gastos de constitución de la hipoteca puente, que en realidad son 2 hipotecas. Una para liquidar la hipoteca (si es el caso) que le queda a la vivienda en venta y la otra para pagar la totalidad de la vivienda que se compra+gastos.
Ejemplo:
Vivienda antigua:
Vendo por 250.000€ y me quedan 50.000€ de hipoteca.
Vivienda nueva:
compro por 400.000€

El método de la vieja me diría:
Vendiendo y comprando,
compro por 400.000€+10%gastos=440.000€
vendo por 250.000€-50.000hipotecavieja=200.000€de entrada
necesito una hipoteca de 240.000€.

Haciendo una hipoteca puente (el mismo caso)
constituyo una hipoteca de 440.000€+50.000€hipotecavieja=490.000€
¿Sabeis que vale constituir una hipoteca de 490.000€-240.000€=250.000€ de más a parte de los intereses de 490.000€? Calculadlo y vereis lo que supone…

Luego un sistema de engaños/carencias hacen que nos parezca que este producto se un chollo…. pero es una trampa.
Por eso creo que vale la pena rebajar las pretensiones de venta, es mucho más rentable.

Por otro lado, los precios sí que es cierto que no han subido, están estancados (lo que en realidad se vende). Lo que pasa es que quien pone un piso en venta al principio le pone el precio como si este último año hubieran subido un 15% y al final pues no le queda más remedio que bajarlo a su precio si quiere venderlo.
Esto no es lo mismo, que decir que los pisos están más baratos que hace un año.
No sé si me he explicado bien…

Atila, estos números están hecho sobre tasaciones oficiales, otro engaño.
¿O no recuerdas a la gente que metía el bmw, vacaciones, reforma, etc en tasaciones que estabamos deacuerdo todos que estaban sobrevaloradas?
Ahora la manera que tienen los bancos de cerrar el grifo es recortando las tasaciones, no hay más…

Animo Atila, es tu oportunidad! Comprate una casa en Getafe al 33 de descuento!