More rate rises in August
The next rise could be the day on August 3 to combat the "upside risks" to inflation stemming from oil price hikes.
The ECB president, Jean-Claude Trichet warned that "exercise strong vigilance on inflation. That speech, that Trichet has used just before the last three rate rises, put the market on alert for a hike on Aug. 3.
The announcement surprised because it was expected that the bank will continue raising rates once a quarter, with the next increase after the end of the summer holidays, 31 agosto.Pero the possibility of an early rise was reinforced after the The ECB revealed that, contrary to expectations, the meeting on August 3 will be "physically" not-for-teleconferencing and his term will be issued a communique and Trichet will hold a press conference.
Trichet "gave a very clear signal that interest rates will rise again in early August," said Elga Bartsch of Morgan Stanley in Londres.Tras message Trichet, the futures market on the Euribor increased the likelihood that interest rates rise to 3% in early August to more than 90%, compared to 40% one-day antes.La further rise in interest rates, in reality, represent an increase in new mortgages in Spain, where the 90% of loans for house purchases is given to a variable rate, compared to less than 40% in the rest of Europe.
That view was reflected in the future of the Euribor contract for delivery in December 2007 that traded yesterday for the first time above 4%, indicating that the market expects the ECB to raise rates at least until 3.75 % Next year. But others are still not convinced. "Although the current economic recovery is stronger than expected, the ECB will face a wind against in 2007 stems from a stronger currency, a slight budget constraint and the impact of oil," said Emanuele Ravan, managing director of Pimco , The largest manager of fixed income world.
(Unrated) 
Loading ... Written by Carlos Lopez on July 8, 2006 with 1 comment.
# 1, sr Chinarro
Today, July 11, I just heard a discussion on the radio that ratifying the black prediction released in late 2005: the worst of the crisis that Spain has ever known. Allude to the Bloomberg report that according to the experts "nail" the economic situation of Spain and to yield to us. They claim since all investment banks so advertised, interest rates later this year at 3.25% 3.50%, including JP Morgan announced a 3.75%. And subsequent hikes in 2007.
They conclude that there will be unemployment and you know who will be the first to go to unemployment? meeeeeeeeecccccccccc, error.No be immigrants, but surprise surprise! nationals. It seems that in the last quarter of 2005, for every immigrant who was unemployed, were nine Spaniards.
Good night.